Kevin Goldstein: Braves Prospect List Q&A 2008
As part of what will hopefully be a series of Q&A's with several of the top prospect gurus around the league, we begin with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. Kevin recently released his list of the top-11 Braves prospects. If you're a regular reader here you'll know that I reference Goldstein all the time. He's one of the few who publish regular prospect reports online throughout the year, and he's usually got a detailed and original take on what a prospect's future might be. Some of you may remember that we did something similar to this last year, and if you'd like to look at what he had to say about our system in 2007 click here.
Q: For you, why does Jordan Schafer rank higher than Jason Heyward? After all, Schafer wasn't on anyone's list last year.
A: There are a few reasons, but note that both are in the top 40 on my Top 100 prospects, so I really like them both. The first reason is the Schafer has gotten it done, while Heyward certainly should get it done, but is still unproven as a pro. The other big thing for me is position. Schafer is a pure centerfielder, while Heyward profiles for right field, so the offensive expectations change significantly. On average, big league right fielders have an OBP that is 10-20 points higher than a centerfielder, and a slugging that is 20-40 points higher, so Heyward has to be that much of a better hitter to be of the same value offensively. Throw in the fact that Schafer is a fantastic defensive centerfielder and the gap becomes a bit wider even. Also, even though Schafer wasn't on anyone's list last year, that doesn't mean he was totally off the radar. The tools were certainly there. Every team has a handful of these guys - the tools player with tons of potential and little production. Most don't develop, some get better, and every year, a handful of them, like Schafer or Tampa's Desmond Jennings really explode.
Q: After the year that Eric Campbell and Van Pope had in 2007, are they still projectable as prospects? Is 2008 a make or break year for each player?
A: Campbell's power will get him plenty of chances, but he needs to realize that raw talent alone isn't enough. He's got to get healthy and show that he wants it. Turning around makeup is really up to the player - there's little the team can do at this point. Pope might be in a make-or-break situation - he's 24 this year, and last year's Double-A showing was nothing short of miserable.
Q: Does a guy like Charlie Morton, who had a great AFL season, really have a chance to be a major league starter for the Braves?
A: I think the Braves see him as a reliever at this point, but yet, he does have big league potential. The arm strength has always been there, and he has a very good breaking ball - it's the step forward in command that has Braves officials hopeful.
Q: Who is better, or who do you think will be better long term, Julio Teheran or Neftali Feliz?
A: Well, obviously I have Feliz pretty high on my Top 100, and Teheran isn't on it, so I take Feliz, as he's already ha some state-side success and currently throws harder - not to say Teheran won't get there, but Feliz has more 'now' stuff.
Q: Who are the top three prospects the Braves have traded away this past year? Which will come back to haunt the Braves the most?
A: Is Salty still a prospect? If not, I think Feliz has the most upside, while Andrus is probably the safer bet to be a productive big leaguer. I'm not sure if anything is going to be haunting the Braves if they can resign Teixeira though.
Q: After Schafer, Heyward, Lillibridge, and Jones, is Gorkys Hernandez really the best bat in the organization? What makes him a four-star prospect?
A: He has game-changing speed, he's an outstanding centerfielder, and he's got very good bat speed. He needs to add power and/or patience to his game, but even if he doesn't, he'll still be in the big leagues. He's a very exciting guy to watch.
Q: Who will be better long term and why, Michael Fisher, Brandon Hicks, or Travis Jones?
A: Well, all three are college infielders from big programs, but honestly, just look at the money. Hicks cost $283,500. Fisher cost $125,000 and Jones signed for $107,200. Now if one guy cost as much as the other two combined, that's the best guy right? Certainly for now it is. Trust the scouts, here. Hicks is the best athlete of the three, and the best defender. His speed is a tick below Fisher, but he's the better hitter as well, not that any of them are great with the bat. I don't think any are future stars, but I could see Hicks turning into a solid shortstop.
Q: Do either Brandon Jones or Brent Lillibridge have a chance to be the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year? Which one will be the best major leaguer in 2008?
A: I don't think either will be there. There are going to be some excellent rookies in the NL like Jay Bruce, and other guys who are technically rookies like Fukudome with the Cubs. I think Jones will be better in '08, just because it looks like he has a much easier shot at significant playing time.
Q: If you had to fill out the Braves major league pitching rotation, who would you choose, Jo-Jo Reyes or Jair Jurrjens, and why?
A: Jurrjens. He throws strikes. Reyes' raw stuff might grade out a tick better, but Jurrjens has a big advantage in command and control and is a better pitcher.
Q: What is the biggest strength of the Braves minor league system? The biggest weakness?
A: Strengths: Projectable young arms, athletic outfielders.
Weaknesses: Infielders, pure power prospects.
Many thanks to Kevin for agreeing to this 10 question e-mail Q&A. I thoroughly enjoyed his answers as I hope you did, especially his response to the question about Charlie Morton. I think we needed someone to put a little more perspective on the good performance Morton turned in last fall.
0 recs |
10 comments
Comments
Nice!
Q1 - I'm giddy about having both Schafer and Heyward in the pipeline. I hope we don't trade either and that they'll take their place in Atlanta's outfield sooner rather than later. I wonder how we'll configure the OF and line-up with those two and Francoeur out there...
Q2 - As happy as I am about our future OF, that's how worried I am about 3B. Sure, we might be able to get away with a Yunel Escobar type player at the hot corner, but I'd prefer someone with a more suitable (i.e. power) bat. We'll miss Chipper more than anyone else.
Q3 - I know Charlie Morton has his fans, but I just don't see him being a big deal. If he makes it, great, but I won't worry about him in what should be a deep bullpen and rotation.
Q4 - Teheran is intriguing and I'm looking forward to seeing what sort of numbers he puts up. I'm a numbers guy (though I don't disregard scouting at all) so I'll hold off on getting hyped about Julio.
Q5 - I'm on the record as saying that I don't think that we'll be "haunted" by the Tex trade even if we don't resign him. We're getting 1.5 seasons of MVP level play (plus a half season of good lefty relief work) and end up with three compensatory draft picks for Tex/Mahay if we don't keep him. If we win in 2008, it'll be because of this trade. We'll also have money to bring someone else in via free agency. I don't mind giving up valuable pieces for elite quality in return.
Q6 - I'm not sold on Gorkys, but Goldstein's opinion goes a long way with me. That said, he'll have to show me the numbers to go along with the tools before I buy in. I hope he proves me wrong.
Q7 - I like Brandon Hicks more than most, but it's good to see someone point out that he isn'tlikely a star. I pay too much attention to numbers, especially for less famous prospects, so this tempers my optimisism some.
Q8 - A good question about Lilli and B. Jones is: will both of them remain Braves for the start of 2009? I think we might have to make a big move this offseason and they could certainly headline a solid package for a star player.
Q9 - I'm one who thinks Jo-Jo and Jair are not going to be any better than #3's in the best case scenario and I think they'll be rounding out our rotation by 2010 if they're still around. I know there are more optimistic projections out there, but even mine makes them valuable players. I'm glad we have them both with the possibility of keeping them in AAA to start the season.
Q10 - I think our only real lack is power and, with Heyward in tow and hopefully Cody Johnson rounding out his game, that might be improved somewhat. Our major-league team is young and we'll remain young through the transition years coming up. It's great to be a Braves fan right now!
by ejruiz on Feb 12, 2008 6:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
no subject
by bravos408 on Feb 12, 2008 6:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Are You Talking To Me?!
by ejruiz on Feb 12, 2008 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no subject
And unfortunately I didn't understand half of what you just said (also I'm too lazy right now to look in the dictionary). Quite and extensive vocabulary, cheers!! and touche!
Your comments on the report were quite thorough, well done..I just couldn't agree with a fair percentage of them..but we're cool to disagree..right?
How do I agree?
Heyward and Schafer..promising..I'm excited too, but I think we'll lose one of them and keep B Jones.
How do i disagree?
This is a combo..or a consolidation of disagreements.
I think Pope will figure it out. I don't think options for third base are as limited as one might think. Pope has power, though he has yet to demonstrate it on an everyday basis. He has a surprising amount of pop.. Then I go to brandon hicks..which is an option for third base.. Hicks is a stud, and shows signs, plenty of signs..And at this point, in all of these players that were mentioned, its really really hard to differentiate between who's going to be a "star" and who's going to be an average every day big leaguer (considering its often hit or miss whether or not the guy even makes it to the big leagues). I think Hicks is going to be a big leaguer..and I don't think its a realistic prediction to say whether he will or will not be a "star"..
Charlie Morton: Has the stuff to be a top of the rotation guy in the big leagues. And it's got to be hard to believe that because you're a "numbers guy", but the guy needs time (he's 24 I know I know). He's not a typical prospect, and it's taken him a while. And as for you knowing he has his "fans", I believe those fans are well deserved.. (one new endorsment chipper jones::
http://www.ajc.com/search/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/entries/2008/02/11/no_more_weekend.html)(check out Feb 12, @2:34 PM).
Bobby, Frank and Roger are excited to see what he does this season regardless of his past performance. And my impression is that every pitching coach, field coach, and manager knows he is the real deal, and has been waiting for the day the kid blooms into what he can be.
I've never seen teheran pitch so I can't comment on that.
About TEX, are we trying to come in 2nd or 3rd in our division every year? Or are we trying to get back on track and win a world series? How do we do that? With impact players like teixiera. Its hard to watch your future big league guys leave I know, but the impact needed was urgent. Hopefully it pays off.
Its nice to have prospects in rookie ball that everyone is leaning on for 2011 or 2012, but lets be honest, what does it matter? Trade bait is all.. what are the chances that 60 percent of these guys get a full season in at the big league level? I'm sorry, Goldsteins opinions go about as far as if I were staring at a blank computer screen, and I can't wait for the season to begin so all this speculation can be put to bed for at least another 9 months
by bravos408 on Feb 12, 2008 9:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Disagreeing Is Cool.
I can definitely see us trading either Schafer or Heyward before they get to Atlanta, but I still hope that we don't. Unless B. Jones blows us all away with his head start, I think it would be a shame to feel as though we can give one of them up because we already have him in tow. In fact, I think that, regardless of his performance, he's far more likely to get dealt.
I hadn't thought about Hicks at 3B, but I don't think his power is what I'm looking for in a corner OF. I don't think it would be better than, say, sliding Yunel over and playing Lilli at SS. I won't put a hard ceiling on Brandon, but I've heard far too often that he's more likely to be a fringe starter than anything else. As for Pope and Campbell, I hope at least one of them gets back on track in 2008, but I'm not banking on it. Morton will get his shot in the Spring and, if he's half as good as you say he is, then I'm sure he can even crack the rotation. Keeping Jo-Jo and Jair in Richmond would be a huge plus, so I'm rooting for him as the #5 in ATL. If we let Tex walk, we could sign a guy like Sabathia. Sure, Mark is a great player and we all love him, but he's not the only fish in the sea. I know draft picks aren't great, but possibly replacing 3/5 of the package we sent to Texas for him and Mahay would make the deal much more palatable. But yeah, all this prospect talk is smoke and mirrors, but it's fun. I'm with you as far as dying for baseball to start so we can talk about now instead of some distant, hazy future. See? We can definitely disagree without being disagreeable; disagreeing is cool!
by ejruiz on Feb 13, 2008 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no subject
Morton earning a starting job out of spring is a pretty good stretch. There will be too many options to give a guy with his background a spot out of the chute..He may have an outside chance at a bullpn spot, but I wouldn't count on that either. I hope they get him some innings in at AA or AAA before they consider moving him up, but who knows..his spring might be quite impressive..or it could be straight horrible...
by bravos408 on Feb 13, 2008 12:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jair
by Chester Highwater on Feb 13, 2008 9:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Here goes
by was385 on Feb 14, 2008 12:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hysterical
Ejuriz--> I'll admit you make a lot of solid points; however, as I stated before, get off the dictionary and lets play some ball (I don't know what that means but I hope you understand)! As for your snide comments, I do not take them seriously, as I hope you do not take mine; however, it is great arguing with you in a mature and immature manner. Keep up the blogging.
As for my position on players in Rookie Ball. Bravos 408 could not have said it better. Prospects are meant to be traded in return for extreme value (I.E. Huddy, Tex, etc.) The main problem comes in when a GM may trade away their entire minor league system for a few solid players, such as the Mets have done. Frank Wren has done a great job with getting quality for our potential all-stars, and at the same time manages to keep our minor league system fully stocked with young future all-stars (hence the two off season trades of Villareal for Josh Anderson, or Rent for Jair Jurjens and Corky Hernadez). Frank Wren is doing a great job keeping our Minor League system packed with either potential Braves, or trade bait for other teams all-stars. Go Braves!
by Pirates07 on Feb 13, 2008 2:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

by 












