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Braves Shortstop: The Now and The Future

At the major league level…
… the "now" seems to belong to Yunel Escobar, and all of his moods. Seemingly an even-keeled rookie last year, the formerly chatty Cuban seemed to lose his composure this year after the Braves released childhood friend Bryan Pena. Esco's solid approach at the plate turned into an impatient hitter for a few weeks before returning to form and then devolving back again. For some reason, Escobar is immature beyond his years… but that seems to be the only knock on the mid-20’s Cuban.

Escobar, when healthy (and sane), can be one of the best hitting shortstops in the game. He didn’t slip too much in the on-base or power department, and his raw talent seems to be completely intact. The only knock on him that I can discern is his erratic behavior. But the people around the Braves are too professional to let Escobar’s shenanigans go on for too long. The best thing going for Escobar is that fellow Cuban Chino Cadahia is the Braves bench coach and a calming native influence on him. Escobar must mature, and if he does, he may be mentioned amongst the elite shortstop of the National League.

The future Braves shortstop…
… Last year’s third-round pick, Brandon Hicks, is vaulting through the minor leagues. After climbing two rungs (Danville and Rome) last year, Hicks earned a promotion from high-A Myrtle Beach to double-A Mississippi this year. His sample size of at-bats in Mississippi was not big enough to tell if he can handle double-A with the same success as he has the previous two levels. The good part about his performance is that it didn’t decline dramatically after the promotion, which leads me to believe that he will handle double-A as good as he’s handled A-ball.

Hicks is not the perfect prospect. He does have positives, including a very projectable 6’2" frame that brings a lot of power to the shortstop position. But he’s got several things to improve on, beginning with controlling his strikeouts. After pretty much a one to one strikeout to walk ratio last year, he struck out almost three times as much as he walked this year, and not only did his average suffer, but so did his on-base percentage.

Hicks is a solid defender and scouts love his size and potential. He should get a full season of double-A next year, and that will be the year he can really prove himself as a prospect.

Hicksmb0801_medium

More for future consideration…
2. Brent Lillibridge – Lilli was anything but impressive this year. His numbers declined in every major category, and there were some startling increases in the categories you don’t want to see increases. His strikeouts jumped to one per game at Richmond this year and his major league numbers left little to be desired. He may get a look in a backup role next year, but he needs to return to the numbers he put up in his first two years in the pros before some consider him a high value prospect again.

3. Michael Fisher – Scouts seem to like this guy, but after showing promise last year at Danville he struggled this year at the plate and in the field, and may have been one of the biggest disappointments in the system. Fisher’s defense will probably necessitate a move to second base, and a utility role may ultimately be in his future. 

Others:  Shayne Moody (older ’08 draftee didn’t show that much at Danville); Travis Adair (another ’08 draftee and part of the community college draft binge, like Moody, he didn’t show us much in short season ball this year).

Photo of Brandon Hicks courtesy of Chip Jett

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Comments

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Fielding?

Too much focus on offense in this analysis. Range and reliability in the field are what matters most at SS. We won pennants with Rafael Belliard, remember. Lillibridge may have an important role for this reason alone. Give him time, he appears to be aging slowly.

Escobar is the one position player we have who might net us a frontline starter in a trade in the next year or two. He’s a potential all-star who should be dealt at his peak value.

by JimK on Oct 3, 2008 10:16 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

belliard got more than 300 AB in a season with us once. you’re confusing “winning with him starting” with “winning by putting him in the 8th inning of a close game because blauser was a butcher”

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Oct 5, 2008 11:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Man I hated Blauser. I was so upset when I met him and he was really cool. Nowhere near as cool as Raffy though, so it wasn’t so bad.

by cbwilk on Oct 6, 2008 1:14 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and

who do you see us replacin Escobar with this year JimK? Lillibridge? hahahahha funny. I just dont see Lillibridge bein good enough to play full time at SS, maybe second but not SS. Why should he be dealt at peak value? I bet you prolly thought that Chipper should have been dealt when he was 25 or 26 also. I just dont understand the peak value crap. I mean if we had a guy that we KNOW could replace Escobar then fine but Lillibridge just aint gonna cut it at the majors at least right now. Heck he was putrid this year in AAA. Escobars defense is AMAZING and we need a great defender at that position thats what seperates him and of course his bat is better than Lillibridge’s also.

Gondee, whats wrong with Escobar havin fire in him, isn’t that good? The Braves have been TOOOOOO layed back its time for that to change and i like what Escobar is doin. The guy wants to win and gets upset when we lose whats wrong with that? Show me an instance that Escobar got upset about something other than him underperformin or when the team loses. Show me.

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 3, 2008 12:26 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fire I’m okay with… erratic behavior I am not.

by gondeee on Oct 3, 2008 2:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

can you give me a specific instance where his behavior was erratic instead of he was just upset on him underperformin or losin?

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 4, 2008 2:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I remember games just after Pena left where Esco would go up and swing at every pitch (Francoeur-esque), and swing wildly, usually grounding out. He left his usual well-rounded approach to hitting in the clubhouse and just went up there swatting at the ball. He would them sometimes come back to the dugout and be really upset. Seeing him get upset actually happened a lot this year, especially when things weren’t really going his way, and that seemed to spiral out of control at times. It reminded me a little of the way Carlos Zambrano used to act when things wouldn’t go his way.

I’m fine with seeing players get upset, but there was more pouting and unprofessionalism to the way Esco did it — there was a real immaturity to it.

by gondeee on Oct 5, 2008 6:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Escobar is not an amazing defender. He has proved himself hitting though. His lateral movement is bad and the amazing plays he makes would be routine plays for most truly quick shortstops. Lillibridges year also from what I hear, consisted of unfortunate outcomes. Things didn’t fall his way but he did not play like the stats portray. It is time to make a trade though, maybe him and Brandon Jones.

by bballg15 on Oct 3, 2008 3:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Escobar was one of the defensive SS in the majors in 2008

He turns plays that are impossible for other shortshops into amazing plays.

Before Yunel’s injury, he was at the top of near the top of every major defensive stat for SS’s. Hardball Time’s RZR, Baseball Prospectus’s FRAA, Total Value Estimate, and Plus/Minus. Some of these are counting stats so he may have been passed when he got shut down for the season, but he should still be at/near the top for the rate ones.

Yunel = elite defensive SS

by VictorW on Oct 4, 2008 5:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah..

..he got passed up at the end. Here’s the Top Ten

Rank Player +/-
1 Jimmy Rollins +23
2 Yunel Escobar +21
3 J.J. Hardy +19
4 Cesar Izturis +19
5 Cristian Guzman +15
6 Jack Wilson +15
7 Mike Aviles +15
8 Omar Vizquel +9
9 Miguel Tejada +7
10 Erick Aybar +7

by RainDelay on Oct 6, 2008 1:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Escobar is worth a #1 or 2 starter

Brandon Jones and Lillibridge are not. Lillibridge appears to be an excellent fielder who will cost us very little for a long time. Somebody has to bat 8th in every line-up, and SS is the most logical place to sacrifice (costly) hitting for fielding. Escobar is not our best option near the top of the order, either, with Schafer/Gorkys in the pipeline, our two current CFs, and Kelly Johnson all better for speed or OBP.

I’m not eager to trade Escobar, who I described as a potential all-star. If his power develops he could be Chipper’s successor at third. But if some other team is likely to regard him as being worth what our scouts regard as a top young starting pitcher, he must be dealt. No other regular on our team who I would be willing to trade rates a young (i.e. pre-arbitration) top of the rotation starter.Our #1 priority must be finding our next trio of Hall of Fame starters.

Another factor to be weighed is the Escobar character assessment above. If there is a basis in fact, it’s one more reason to move Yunel.

by JimK on Oct 3, 2008 5:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yunel was arguably the best SS in at least the National League this year. Several times the announces referenced a publication that listed Escobar as being the top fielding SS in the league. Then, throw in his .300 average with some pop and you have quite a player.

I do not want to trade him, b/c i think he will mature and continue to develop offensively.

by dmack on Oct 3, 2008 2:18 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There’s actually no argument that can be made that Yunel Escobar was better at baseball this year than Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes. His defense was by all accounts stellar, but that can’t close the ~40 RAA gap that Ramirez has on him offensively or the ~20 RAA gap that Reyes has on him offensively.

by 17843 on Oct 3, 2008 3:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think dmack was referring to defense

Because you’re absolutely right that Hanley Ramirez is effing amazing (at least in the batter’s box and on the bases). I was just looking at his stats from this year, and the only fault I can find is that he strikes out a little too much. But he also increased his walks from 52 to 92. And he steals bases at 77%. And he hits home runs. He’s one hell of a lead off hitter. He would be even better hitting third, but apparently he wasn’t comfortable in that spot earlier in the year, and his hitting suffered. It’s funny how positions in the order seem to make so much of a difference to some players.

by buzzdeadwax on Oct 3, 2008 3:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Defensively

At least according to Bill James’ site (http://www.mlive.com/fantasysports/index.ssf/2008/08/baserunning_defense_have_big_i.html), Yunel Escobar is leaps and bounds better than all the other shortstops in the league. Using the plus/minus method, Yunel was a plus-27, eleven points higher than the second best shortstop (J.J. Hardy), and 18 points higher than last year’s Gold Glove SS, Jimmy Rollins. And just to throw it in there, 34 points higher than Derek Jeter.

I used to think that defensively, nobody was better than Troy Tulowitzki, but after watching Escobar go for an entire season, Tulo’s got some stiff competition. And despite Escobar’s hot head, at least he doesn’t boneheadedly break his bat and gash open his hands. He’s no Hanley offensively, but who knows what could develop, still. I certainly hope we keep Escobar for a good bit of time, IMO.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Oct 3, 2008 5:12 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oooh or how about punching your bat and breaking your wrist?

Tulo was totally robbed on that Gold Glove last year and Yunel will be too. It would be nice if awards were actually given to players who deserved them.

by VictorW on Oct 4, 2008 5:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Escobar isn’t going anywhere. He’s an all star caliber SS and he played with a bum shoulder most of the second half of the year. The fact is our infield will return intact next year with Chipper, Yunel, Johnson, and Kotchman.

by dwbrave on Oct 3, 2008 6:10 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Absolutely right

The infield should be at least league average next year, if not better, when offense, defense, and payroll are combined. There’s no sense in weakening the infield to strengthen another area.

by buzzdeadwax on Oct 4, 2008 3:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

escobar’s offense crashed and burned this season. i’m all for keeping him along and hoping it was just a bump in the road, but if he keeps the shit up he did last season, look out. the only major positive with the bat i saw was his increased walk rate (nullified by the 40 point drop in BA. but wtf do you expect when your BABIP is over .360?)

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Oct 5, 2008 11:47 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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