NY Daily News Echoes My Concerns About Jake Peavy

by gondeee on Oct 27, 2008 3:52 PM EDT in Braves Trade News

Amid a fairly complementary article about the Braves in this New York newspaper is this comment about Jake Peavy:

So it appears the Braves could probably put together an attractive package for Peavy. The question they must ask themselves is: Why would the Padres be willing to trade a pitcher of Peavy's caliber, who is under contract for a relatively modest $59 million over the next four years? Do they know something?

This is in line with my concerns last week about the various reasons that Jake Peavy could be the next Mike Hampton for the Braves.

Look, I get that Peavy is supposedly an impact pitcher, and he's signed semi-reasonably for the next few years, but it seems like it would still be a king's ransom to get this guy. Above all, I'm very nervous about his injury history, so it bears repeating, if Peavy is so affordable and such an important piece, then why aren't the Padres build around him? They just resigned him last year, has that much changed on their team and with their payroll that they feel they can't afford him?

I will continue to be skeptical of this trade. It is not the only route to rebuilding our pitching staff.

Alas, other teams are bound to get involved. The latest team of interest is the Cubs:

The Padres called, the Cubs said they're interested, and it's a possibility.

According to a West Coast source, the Cubs are the Padres' best option for a trade partner if for no other reason than they're not the Dodgers, who are Peavy's first choice, and they're not the Braves, who at this point are saying they won't deal their best prospects.

Ultimately, Peavy will drive this things exactly where he want's it to go.

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Cubs are a surprise

I can claim that I really know the Cub’s system, but I don’t think they have the kind of prospects the Padres want. I posted a list of red flags on Peavy at another thread, but I’ll post them again as they seem approprate. They are not mine but I agree with them.

•Peavy faced only 69 batters in innings 7-9
•With only 27 games started, Peavy averaged facing 2.56 batters after the 6th inning
•Batters hit .290 against him later in games
•Peavy faced only 38 batters after throwing his 105th pitch; Averaged 106 pitches per game in 2008 (103 PC/game for a career).
•Peavy’s away ERA in 2008 was 4.28; .258 Batting Average Against (BAA)
•Peavy’s home ERA in 2008 was 1.75; .205 BAA
•Peavy’s almost a neutral GB/FB pitcher, with a 1.11 GB:FB ratio in 2008, in line with career numbers. The bigger Petco keeps the flyballs within the fences for long outs.
•K-rate of 8.60 lowest since 2003, down from 9.67 in 2007. As a result, his K/BB rate of 2.81 was also a low since 2003 and down from 3.53 last year.

by braves99 on Oct 27, 2008 4:48 PM EDT reply actions

I really don’t care about one season that is not up to his All-Star caliber pitching. The whole he doesn’t last deep into games thing can be attributed to many things like managers decision or the fact that the Padres didn’t score many runs and he was pinch hit for late in games. Most pitchers tend to give up more hits as the game goes along. And the whole Petco is this giant park thing isn’t really that relevant because Turner Field isn’t that much smaller. And an 8.6 k-rate isn’t that bad.

by jack dein on Oct 27, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed!

I’m a big supporter of acquiring Peavy and I think judging him on his 2008 performance alone is a mistake. That being said, I also don’t believe it should be ignored either. I trust the Braves will do their due diligence if necessary.

by scstrato on Oct 27, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

reason

I think the biggest reason that the Padres are willing to trade him is that when he signed his current contract they told him that they would continue to add pieces to make this team competitive. They have not done that. He wants to play for a winning team and the Padres are not going to be a winning team for at least a few years. The Padres have not said that it is a must that they trade him this winter, only that they will listen to offers for him. They owner is going through a divorce and Towers has been told that payroll will be cut and the easiest way to move payroll is to trade Peavy. After the 2009 season he’s really not that cheap, he makes 11 mil in 09, 15 mil in 10, 16 mil in 11, and 17 mil in 12, with an option for 2013 at 22 mil.

by jack dein on Oct 27, 2008 4:50 PM EDT reply actions

reason part two

Agree with Jack Dein…I think the divorce made a big impact on the Padres financially and the easiest way to move payroll is to move Peavy. They tried with Giles, but he vetoed the trade, so their next big ticket item who could actually net some decent/good prospects is Peavy.

by jwrocks on Oct 27, 2008 4:54 PM EDT reply actions

Why would the Padres be willing to trade a pitcher of Peavy’s caliber, who is under contract for a relatively modest $59 million over the next four years? Do they know something?

Wow. This is one of the more moronic things I’ve ever seen a sportswriter write.

Why wouldn’t the Padres be willing to trade Peavy? There’s no way they’ll compete for the playoffs in the next several years – meaning Peavy’s 6-8 wins he contributes over a scrub pitcher are largely worthless. Why not convert him into pieces that will A. contribute past four seasons from now (6-7 in Hanson and Schafer’s case) and B. provide similar value for far cheaper price allowing them to spend their money differently.

Injury risks probably have very little to do with the Padres decision making; certainly less than understanding the value of marginal wins.

by 17843 on Oct 27, 2008 6:21 PM EDT reply actions

Again.

17843, when you decide to launch a blog, be sure to shoot me a link. If I remember correctly, Peavy’s first choice was to stay in San Diego so long as the Padres expected to contend sooner rather than latter. It’s clear that they’re about to embark on a longer term rebuilding project and it makes the most sense to expedite that process by trading their most valuable commodity now that he’s at peak value. I wonder why no one remembers the A’s doing this same thing when they dealt Haren last offseason, condemning themselves to mediocrity for a while in order to up the chances of developing a competative, low-cost team down the road. The Hampton gamble has made Braves fans paranoid.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Oct 27, 2008 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions