Braves in "Hot" Pursuit of Jake Peavy

by gondeee on Oct 17, 2008 11:53 AM EDT in Braves Trade News

According to ESPN's Buster Olney, the Atlanta Braves are one of the teams pursuing San Diego pitcher Jake Peavy:

The Atlanta Braves, who went into this offseason devoted to a pursuit of frontline starting pitching, are among the teams "hot" on Peavy, according to one source. San Diego, too, is said to be willing to deal with the rival Dodgers [...]

Some of the other NL teams that might be a fit for Peavy include the Cardinals, who face an uncertain situation with Chris Carpenter, or the Astros, or the Brewers, who stand to lose both CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets to free agency.[...]

If AL teams get involved, the Yankees might be a fit

I don't like the idea of competing with the Yankees for free agents or trades, especially when they set their mind to something, as they reportedly have:

According to a person familiar with the substance of Thursday's [Yankees] organizational meetings in Tampa, Peavy was a hot topic as word has begun to circulate around baseball that the Padres are interested in shopping Peavy. [...]

The Mets also would be interested in a possible trade for Peavy, according to a person familiar with their thinking, but it's unclear whether they've contacted the Padres yet about him.

The problem with the Yankees getting involved is the reported price for Peavy, which Olney lays out here:

The Padres are seeking at least two young pitchers in return, along with someone who can become the team's everyday center fielder sometime in the immediate to near future.

If the Braves want to deal from depth, then they certainly seem well positioned to go after this trade, as long as the price doesn't escalate out of control -- another reason the Yankees presence is dangerous. The Braves have two center fielders considered major league caliber (Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez), as well as plenty of pitching prospects. Because the organization also has such a glut of young pitching at the lower levels it may lead them to believe they can make some of their upper level pitching prospects available.

The Yanks presence in this deal is troublesome becuase they also seem to match up with the Padres very well. They have a center field prospect in Austin Jackson and plenty of high-ceiling pitching from which San Diego can choose.

I would estimate that the Padres will want to move quickly to deal Peavy, if a trade meets their liking, before free agents hit the market. The presence of so many top pitchers on the market -- Sabathia, Sheets, Lowe, possibly A.J. Burnett -- may cause the trade market for Peavy to shrink. A quick move like this benefits the Braves as fewer teams have a chance to weigh their options and toss their hat in the Peavy market.

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Comments

The wildcard...

on the Yankees/Mets thing is Peavy himself. Doesn’t he have to waive a no-trade clause in his contract? I don’t know a lot about him, but what I have read seems to indicate a guy that might not be too excited about living in New York.

by sddbaker on Oct 17, 2008 12:50 PM EDT reply actions

I still think he matches up extremely well with the Cardinals. Their offense was great last year and is returning its major pieces. Their weakness was the pitching staff and Peavy would certainly greatly improve it. The question is whether they’d move Rasmus to get him – if so, win-win for both teams.

by 17843 on Oct 17, 2008 1:16 PM EDT reply actions

Prospects

Assuming that either Escobar or KJ is not included, what prospects would we have to include.

If a current Brave is not included I assume that one of Gorkys/Jordan, and what pitchers would need to be packaged?

by dmack on Oct 17, 2008 1:16 PM EDT reply actions

I would think that if they want at least two pitchers then one of them would probalby have to be Tommy Hanson. Seems unlikely that you’d be able to pry away their ace without giving them your best pitching prospect. After that the question becomes are they more concerned with ceiling or proximity? If they want another high level prospect then maybe it’s somebody like Cole Rohrbough or Jeff Locke or Edgar Osuna or Julio Teheran, but if they’re more about pitchers closer to the majors they’d be more apt to take Kris Medlen, Todd Redmond, James Parr, guys like that.
From this article it seems like it’d take something like Schafer, Hanson, and at least two other pitchers.

by cbwilk on Oct 17, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd offer

Gorkys, B. Jones, Flowers/Freeman, Rohrbough/Locke, Reyes/Morton, Lillibridge/Prado (normally I would scoff at this, but his 08 is eerily similar to Charles Thomas in 04, and that helped get us Hudson). Would that get things done? Who knows. I’d hope for quantity outweighing quality, as we’d keep Heyward, Hanson, and Schafer. Those are the only three I’d make off-limits because:
1. Heyward – very high liklihood he’ll be very productive in the future.
2. Hanson – always need a ML-ready starter in case of injury.
3. Schafer – my opening-day CF.

by buzzdeadwax on Oct 17, 2008 1:44 PM EDT reply actions

that seems like a lot more than what they are asking, although it depends on how you grade these guys

If we give up gorkys i dotn think we have to give up flowers or freeman… and if we do we better get a prospect back. although u didnt mention Hanson’s name. I would much rather give up

Brandon Jones, Gorkys, Locke and then Reyes or Morton or Parr. maybe even 3 of those 4 guys.. That way we are giving them two OF that can play everyday (if you beleive Jones can play everyday, which i personally dont but I know many do think he can) Which gives them the CF they need, a replacement for Brian Giles (who i beleive they will be losign), and be getting 2 or 3 very good pitchers back, at least one with ML experience. If this is the deal I would be willing to part with Prado or Lilli, if that would get it done.

However, I agree with cbwilk it seems hard to beleive that they will trade us their best pticher and not get our best pitching prospect, (or in my example they wouldnt even be getting or 2nd best, or maybe even third depending on where u rank Locke) The deal i propose could get Peavy, but i think we will in all reality have to part with Hanson or Rohrbough and Jordan or Gorkys… which im not sure how fond i am of that idea.

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Oct 17, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll be really pissed

If Tommy Hanson is traded.

by MatM on Oct 17, 2008 2:08 PM EDT reply actions

Think you have to say goodbye

to Hanson plus one of Schafer or Gorkys. Unless they really want to unload Khalil Green on us for Escobar or KJ.

by TradeAndruw on Oct 17, 2008 2:16 PM EDT reply actions

We shouldn’t trade Heyward, Hanson, or Schafer… After that, I don’t care at all.

I would package something along the lines of:

Kelly Johnson, Gorkys Hernandez, Tyler Flowers, JoJo Reyes, Martin Prado, and maybe Locke.

That’s a ton of prospects, I mean, we could sweeten it with Freeman or Medlin, but the other 3 are off limits.

by iLukeisamazing on Oct 17, 2008 2:36 PM EDT reply actions

I wish

They’ll def want better pitching than Jo-Jo/Locke/Medlen!

by TradeAndruw on Oct 17, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

ok, throw in Chuck James.

But thats it!

by 10-4 on Oct 17, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

we cant give up Chuck James he is poised for a huge 2009

(not funny,…. ok i get it im sorry)

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Oct 17, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Chuck James, Charlie Morton (but only for home games), and James Parr, no more!

by iLukeisamazing on Oct 17, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

You aren’t getting Peavy for that. He’s an ace, one of the best SP’s in the game. We’d have to part with Hanson, Shafer or Hernandez, and another young pitcher. Heyward is off limits. I’d have no problem parting with Hanson if he means getting Peavy. We need a #1 starter after the injury to Hudson and in 2 years would have Peavy, Hudson, and JJ has our top 3 starters. Strong.

by dwbrave on Oct 17, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

hudson is a FA after 2009

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Oct 17, 2008 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions

He has a mutual option. Somehow I don’t think he opts out of $12 million when he’s coming off TJ rehab.

by 17843 on Oct 17, 2008 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions

but will we pick up a 12M for a guy coming off TJ?

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Oct 17, 2008 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions

We’d be stupid not too. That’s ridiculously below market for a #2 starter.

by 17843 on Oct 18, 2008 3:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Just reading what Wren has said about untouchables, off our major league roster, it would probably be Chipper and McCann. I would also think Kotchman, just b/c it opens a hole and the Padres already have Gonzalez. He has said he doesn’t want to trade from the “next wave”, so i would think Hanson, Heyward, and Freeman would fit into the forget it category, and maybe Schafer, and to a lesser degreee, Gorkys.

Of course, being selfish, i would hate to see any of the above go in a trade, plus Rohrbough. But what i have to keep reminding myself is that these prospects MIGHT be great, MIGHT be good, and MIGHT be busts. Jake Peavy IS a proven elite pitcher. The Red Sox gave up Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. That worked out well for Boston. Ramirez has become a star, Sanchez has been average (minus the no-hitter) and mostly injured. We need to also remember the demand for Chuck when he first came up! Too bad we didn’t make that deal! Prospects are so highly valued because of what they MIGHT become, but most of them end up being league average players, and some fizzle badly. Again, we know what Jake Peavy is.

That being said, my trade offer is Kelly, Gorkys, Rohrbough and Medlen and one more lower level pitcher not name Teheran if they so desire. Or swap Tyler Flowers for one of those spots.

Of course, if Scheurholtz was still GM he could pull the deal off with Francouer, JoJo and Chuck James.

by 10-4 on Oct 17, 2008 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

To get one of the top starters in baseball you’ll mhave to include a player or two from the next wave.

by dwbrave on Oct 17, 2008 3:34 PM EDT reply actions

I really really hate the idea of trading away a young, cheap possible top of the rotation starter (Hanson). However, I think a Peavy trade would actually put us back in the mix for the playoffs next year if we get another starter and left fielder from the FA market. Even so, I think Hanson, Schafer, and Heyward should be untouchables. Give them whoever else they want up to and including Escobar, KJ, Frenchy, Morton, Reyes, and any other minor league arm or position player, but not those three guys. I believe each one of these 3 guys is going to be a Major Leagues All Star sometime in the next 3-5 years.

by KC Ryan on Oct 17, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think we can move KJ AND Escobar, we’d be pretty weak up the middle. We could sign one of Furcal, Roberts, Hudson, but that would dip into the money needed for another front line pitcher and power bat in the outfield.

BTW, anyone hear that Hampton isn’t giving the Braves a discount next year if they want him back? I would seriously tell the guy to go eff himself. He sat on his ass and earned 100 million.

by TradeAndruw on Oct 17, 2008 5:13 PM EDT reply actions

He sat on his ass and earned 100 million

So many things wrong with that sentence.

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by RainDelay on Oct 17, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, characterizing rehab as “sitting on his ass” is disgusting.

by 17843 on Oct 17, 2008 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions

TradeAndruw.

I take everything he says with a boulder of salt.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Oct 17, 2008 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Raping the Braves payroll and preventing us from being able to afford a pitcher who can actually start a game once in a while is what’s disgusting.

If Wren is stupid enough to give Hampton anything more than a league minimum deal, he should be fired on the spot.

by Rhyno18 on Oct 18, 2008 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Obviously Hampton was foisted upon the Braves without their consent.

by 17843 on Oct 18, 2008 3:23 AM EDT up reply actions

because mike hampton was so much worse than glavine, parr, morton & reyes this season.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Oct 18, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

because Hampton has proven for 3 years that what he will cost a team in MRIs alone would bankrupt the small market teams.

I can’t beleive people are willing to rely on him to be a starter for us for 2009. We counted on him for 2008, and where did that get us?

by Rhyno18 on Oct 19, 2008 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions

and then when he came back, he was perfectly adequate for the back end of the season with no injury scares whatsoever.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Oct 19, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah but for how long?

by jjcollins on Oct 19, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Somebody(and I pray it isn’t us) will give him 2 or 3 years at $5mil+/year. Then he’ll pitch 3 innings, get hurt and stay on the DL until the end of that contract, then pitch just enough to get another year or 2 out of some other team desperate for pitching.

If we’re going to throw money down the drain, then I’d rather we sign Barry Bonds and throw him out in LF. He’s a piece of crap, but at least he plays regularly.

by Rhyno18 on Oct 19, 2008 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions

barry bonds hasn’t played in 150 games in a season since 2001.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Oct 19, 2008 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Mike Hampton has been hurt for over 150 games in the past year

by jjcollins on Oct 20, 2008 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions

pitchers don’t play in 162 games a year.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Oct 20, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

No, but a starter who can’t make 10 starts in a year is as useless as man-tits.

by Rhyno18 on Oct 20, 2008 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions

he made as many starts as BIG FREE AGENT ACQUISITION THAT COST US A FIRST ROUND PICK tom glavine

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Oct 21, 2008 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I never said signing Glavine last year wasn’t a mistake. It was as big a mistake last year as resigning Hampton would be this year.

You might want to turn your caps lock off…but if you’re a Hampton fan, the finger you would use to do that is probably injured.

by Rhyno18 on Oct 21, 2008 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Such as? You would think Hampton could throw the Braves a bone for signing him to the Worst Contract in Baseball History (runner up: Barry Zito).

by TradeAndruw on Oct 17, 2008 8:14 PM EDT reply actions

The Braves did not sign him to that contract, the Rockies did.

by frozen rope on Oct 17, 2008 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

hampton did his part while with the braves. not his fault his body wouldn’t agree wtih him.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Oct 17, 2008 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions

A tad of an overreaction by TradeAndruw...

But I do somewhat see his point. I mean, you think that the Braves paid him a bunch of money and he didn’t produce so he should “owe” us something in the form of a discount.

I don’t agree, though. If I am Hampton, I’m going to get the biggest deal I can because I might have 1 year left to earn money as a player. Then who knows? Sure, he has plenty of money in the bank right now. I’m sure most of you all get by on your current salary, but if you could get a higher one would you feel guilty because you spend 12 hours a week at work playing fantasy football? No, you want as much money as you can, I do. So I can’t blame him for trying.

But, the Braves should not re-sign him to a big contract because he doesn’t deserve it. If someone is willing to pay him, great. Let him go there. But I suspect there are going to be few takers.

"Have you ever had your heart broken?"
"Yeah, when we lost the pennant in '87."

by jug on Oct 18, 2008 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

The Braves only paid Hampton on average $8 million dollars a year, the Rockies and Marlins kicked in the rest. Actually, when the Marlins won the World Series in 2003, the player they paid the most money that year was Mike Hampton. Consider too that the Braves got insurance money each of the years he was injured.

by gondeee on Oct 18, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Shhh...

They don’t care about the “facts”, otherwise they would have paid attention every time this came up or they would have looked things up.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Oct 18, 2008 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

As for Peavy

I am all for giving what we have to get this guy. I think he would be a great Brave and would help us out tremendously. If we have to unload some prospects, so be it. I don’t think we should overpay for him just to win a bidding war with the Yankees or Mets, but we should be willing to part with some prospects for a proven ace.

I’m a little tired of people saying we shouldn’t “mortgage the future to win now” and “look at the Rays, they got here by drafting and developing talent.” My thoughts…We have been drafting and developing players long before the Rays and I’m confident we will continue this trend.

I am confident we will continue to do everything we need to win, which means trading, signing, and developing great players.

"Have you ever had your heart broken?"
"Yeah, when we lost the pennant in '87."

by jug on Oct 18, 2008 12:20 AM EDT reply actions

I’m not sure if this has already been discussed, but has anyone bothered to look at Peavy’s home and away ERA splits? As we all know, PETCO is undeniably a pitcher’s park. Perhaps the most pitcher friendly park in the majors. Anyway…here are last year’s ERA splits:
2008
Home 1.75
Away 4.28

2007 stats are even
Home 2.51
Away 2.57

2006
Home 3.75
Away 4.57

I think those 2008 numbers are very alarming. Obviously there may be many reasons for the large difference, but an area of concern nonetheless.

by BravesFan on Oct 18, 2008 10:57 AM EDT reply actions

Dammit… I was going to put up a story about this on Monday! But yes, the home/away splits are a bit troubling, as are the homeruns allowed on the road.

by gondeee on Oct 18, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry gondee. we’d all like to see your story since you would explain it alot better than I.

by BravesFan on Oct 18, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

his 2008 numbers were alarming because he was battling injuries all year. ever think about that?

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Oct 18, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Shouldn’t those injuries be another reason to be apprehensive?

by MatM on Oct 18, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Just found the site…I really like the thread on whether Braves should acquire Peavy and all the WARP/Sabermetric talk—good thoughtful stuff and a lot of good points on both sides.—Boog

by BoogSciambi on Oct 18, 2008 12:33 PM EDT reply actions

High praise.

by 17843 on Oct 19, 2008 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions

build from within

protected draft pick means we should sign a pitcher, not trade the top talent we have right now. i think we a lot of us really think these guys (han,scha,hey,free,esco,kj,etc.) are going to be great. more so than in recent years with our top talent these guys excite me and possiblity of a young hungry squad (see rays, dodgers, brewers) i look forward to

by ATLBravesYouthMovement on Oct 18, 2008 3:41 PM EDT reply actions

Why Not Both?!

I hate this line of thinking. Trading for Peavy does not stop us from signing a Derek Lowe (Type A) or a Dunn/Burrell for LF as well. They have nothing to do with each other. Wren has made it clear that he wants TWO frontline starters, so Jake would not be the end-all be-all of this offseason.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Oct 18, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

i like how you felt the need to abbreviate all of our young players with a 4 letter abbreviation that i doubt anyone ever calls them.

and do you know how many players on the rays they DIDN’T draft? more than you’d expect. same with the dodgers.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Oct 18, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

ok fine they didn’t draft everyone of them and sorry i was in a hurry and just tpyed enough letters to get the point of which players i was talking about across.

by ATLBravesYouthMovement on Oct 19, 2008 12:16 AM EDT reply actions

oh yeah dunn burrell that will super sweet now lowe i would agree with but no thanks on the other two strikeout kings

by ATLBravesYouthMovement on Oct 19, 2008 12:20 AM EDT reply actions

Are we playing this game again?

Dunn is a pretty damn good player.

(Fill this space with all the same stats we have all seen at least 1 million times.)

Do you see the error of your ways?

by mburris1 on Oct 19, 2008 4:12 AM EDT up reply actions

dunn

yes dunn is a pretty good player and so is burrell and yes they would help us a lot.
i know we need the pop in the lineup, if the best we can do is burrell or dunn then so be it

by ATLBravesYouthMovement on Oct 20, 2008 2:31 AM EDT reply actions