Braves Closer: The Now and The Future
At the major league level…
… After a big contract extension and bigger expectations, our hopes that we found a dominant closer in Rafael Soriano are still up in the air. It’s not because of ineffectiveness; it’s because of some "mysterious" injury – the attached version of phantom limb pain. Soriano complained and complained about pain in his pitching elbow, but no MRI and none of the Dr. James Andrews of the world found anything wrong with the relievers elbow. Perhaps rest and time will fix the "damage."
As one closer feigned an arm injury, another closer came back from one better than most everyone thought he would. Mike Gonzalez rocked himself back into the closer’s role a mere week after returning from the disabled list and Tommy John surgery. He should most likely be considered the closer of choice going into spring training next season.
Manny Acosta is considered by some to have some future closer ability, but with Acosta it’s always been the amount of walks he issues which seemed to have doomed him. Blaine Boyer is another guy who some considered to one day be closer material, but Boyer gave up too many hits, including the gopher ball, and that combined with flagrant overuse may have set Boyer back. But relievers are fickle creatures and just as bad as some of these guys were this year they could come back next year and dominate.
The future Braves closer…
… Though he has found his best success this year as a starter, right-hander Kris Medlen profiles to make the majors as a reliever. Moving him to the rotation was supposed to help Medlen work on his changeup, and while that has improved, and while he has become an accomplished starter, the end result is that when Medlen moves back into the bullpen he goes from being projected as a setup reliever to being considered a future closer.
As much as we need starters in the majors, Medlen is behind several guys on the starting depth chart, and the odds are that his ability will mature to major league ready before the Braves have a major league starting job ready for him. I’m sure that many people will disagree with me about moving Medlen back to the bullpen, but as much as we need starters we also need talented relievers, and with all the injuries that have plagued our staff the last few years, we may need a closer in waiting who is ready to step in.
More for future consideration…
2. Craig Kimbrel – If anyone was upset about the Braves trading Joey Devine, then they needn’t get down on that trade for too long. We went out and drafted Kimbrel this year and all the young fireball reliever did was strikeout 56 batters in 35.1 innings pitched while only giving up 16 hits and two earned runs. He had success at every level, beginning at Danville, then Rome, and the Beach. Batters managed to hit just .131 off of Kimbrel. In a small sample size in Myrtle Beach he showed a few signs of vulnerability, so he will likely begin next season there, but he should move up to Mississippi mid-year.
3. Stephen Marek – The "other" part of the Kotchman trade might begin to pay dividends as early as next year as he competes for a spot in the bullpen during spring training. The jury is out on whether or not he has closer stuff, but another couple of years of development could change some minds.
3. Kevin Gunderson – He shined as a closer at Oregon State when they won the College World Series, so we know he can close and close effectively. He’s been given that opportunity several times in the minors and will likely continue to be given that opportunity. His future in the majors is probably that of a LOOGY, but there’s a chance he could sneak into a closer’s role at some point.
4. Cory Gearrin – Another college closer who has had mixed results in pro ball. The Braves have moved him quickly and for the most part he’s responded well. His ERA’s have not always been pretty, but his average against shows that he’s still able to get batters out when he challenges them.
5. Benino Pruneda – Reportedly a guy who can throw up to 100mph, Pruneda had a sensational year at Rome in his first full pro season. He struck out 73 in 57.1 innings and had an almost 2-to-1 ground outs to fly outs ratio – spectacular for a power pitcher. Pruneda is a JuCo guy and should see Myrtle Beach next year and possibly some time at Mississippi late in the season. While he didn’t do much closing at Rome, 100mph is certainly capable of closing one day.
6. Nick Fellman – The Braves chose to have Fellman skip Rome and go from Danville last year right to Myrtle Beach this year. He responded admirably, though he predictably struggled in the first half of the year with an ERA over 5.00 and eight homeruns allowed, but he adjusted to the league and found his form in the second half to put up a 1.59 ERA with no homeruns allowed.
Others Relievers (not necessarily closer-types): Lee Hyde (college reliver is rebounding from injury earlier this year, the Braves showed in 2007 that they think he can move fast through the system); Rico Reid (a real competative reliver with a good fastball/curveball mix, but needs time to refine his game); Brett Butts (big reliver from Auburn didn't have a good year ERA-wise, but he threw a lot of innings, kept his walks down, and held opposing batters to a low .220 average); Michael Nix (bigger Aubern reliever who has shown some good improvement each of the last two years; he should be in the spring training bullpen mix); Tyler Wilson (big reliever had a better season than it looks like he had after several tough early outings; he still needs to control the walks); Luis Valdez (older reliever may have turned a corner this year; it's hard to argue with 28 saves and a 2.76 ERA; if he's still around next year he might get a shot in spring training); Sung Ki Jung (after a great year in 2007 he was far too hittable this year as batters hit almost 100 points higher off of him in 2008)
0 recs |
20 comments
|
Comments
kimbrel is the TRUTH.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Oct 16, 2008 9:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Got a chance to see Kimbrel pitch a couple of times in the championship series for MB and I really liked him. Seemed to have a good idea of how to pitch and after getting hit a little one night he came out and dominated the next. Though, like Medlen, he is a little fella.
Also a huge fan of Cory Gearrin, but I have a soft spot for side-armers anyway.
There are a ton of relievers and gondeee did an outstanding job of pointing out the most important ones, but there were a few more I wanted to mention: Cody Railsback didn’t exactly blow people away at Danville, but he’s got a long, lean body and he throws very hard. Casey Beck had the same story, but is one of the hardest throwers in the system. Tommy Palica has had a couple of solid seasons as a lefty in the low minors. Brad Nelson is older and maybe not that great, but he’s the kind of reliever who could pitch well and find himself in the majors for a short period. And Zach Schreiber will have to miss next year for Tommy John surgery, but he was the least appreciated reliever in the system before getting hurt.
by cbwilk on Oct 16, 2008 9:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Schreiber
Schreiber isn’t having TJ. He’s going to Venezuela for Winter Ball
by Whodunnit?4040 on Oct 16, 2008 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll believe it when I see the stats. Cause both he and Richmond’s pitching coach Guy Hansen told me in June he was having TJ.
by cbwilk on Oct 16, 2008 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very True
He was supposed to have surgery, but doesn’t require it anymore after second opinions changed that path
by Whodunnit?4040 on Oct 16, 2008 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I just checked it out, he is on the Caracas roster. And he made one appearance for the GCL team in August. Guess I should have checked it out before being a douche about it.
I will say, from talking to him, it didn’t sound like something that rest was going to fix. I’ve heard plenty of other pitchers with the same symptoms that couldn’t fix it any other way than TJ. Hopefully it works out for him, Zach is a great guy and a great pitcher and I’d hate to see him become the next Buddy Hernandez, a constant performer that inexplicably gets overlooked.
by cbwilk on Oct 16, 2008 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
He went to see Doc Andrews, who has basically revealed that Schreiber and Chuck Jame’s injuries were diagnosed wrongly
by Whodunnit?4040 on Oct 16, 2008 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Closers
Mike Gonzalez will be the closer even if Soriano is healthy. They both throw their fastballs in the mid 90’s. Soriano’s curve ball hangs way too often on right handed batters. Gonzo’s breaking ball has much better bite. Finally, Mike is left handed and has an unorthodox release point. Combine all those facts and it is my belief that Gonzo closes for the Braves next year.
I hate to keep harping on pitchers stuff, but it is VERY important, especially for closers. I am not necessarily looking for scouting grades on individual pitches. I just want to know how hard Medlen and Kimbrill throw, and if they have decent off speed pitches.
by dmack on Oct 16, 2008 9:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That doesn’t make sense to me. You pick Gonzo over Soriano even though the latter has superior “stuff” then turn around and say how important “stuff” is.
by scstrato on Oct 16, 2008 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
scstrato
Did you read the post? I like Soriano, but Mike has better stuff (plus he is hoping that his velocity improves with additional rest).
by dmack on Oct 16, 2008 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's my point
I don’t see how Gonzo has better “stuff” than Soriano (just my opinion). His H/9 and BB/9 are superior to Gonzo’s over their careers, but I have to say I was surprised by Gonzo’s K rate which weakens my argument a little bit. I’ll give you that Sori had a tendency to hang a pitch last year. I didn’t get your point in the original post, I just assumed everyone knew Soriano was the better pitcher, but after detailling their statistics It’s closer than I thought.
by scstrato on Oct 16, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As far as stuff, Medlen is straight dirty. I couldn’t give you exact speeds, but he throws a fastball with movement, somewhere around the mid 90s, and his slider and sinker are pure strikeout pitches.
The nights I saw Kimbrel he was throwing his fastball 93-95 and he had a slider that was pretty comparable to Medlen.
by cbwilk on Oct 16, 2008 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Soriano
Didn’t they eventually find out that there actually was something wrong with Soriano’s shoulder? I thought I remembered seeing that after having the Braves brass for most of the year stop just short of accusing him of faking it.
by matches on Oct 16, 2008 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You beat me to it
Soriano had surgery to move his UCL nerve. I can’t find the article but I believe I remember reading it was thought the nerve was rubbing against something causing irritation. Anyone have the link?
To Gondee’s point, I don’t believe the surgery was performed because they found something. It appeared to be exploratory (at least that’s how I remember it).
by scstrato on Oct 16, 2008 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if i remember correctly they also removed bone spurs, but Im not positive about htat
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Oct 16, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Soriano
You are right about Soriano. He had a bone spur that was rubbing a nerve or ligament. They did surgery and he should be back in the spring. James also had surgery on his shoulder about the same time. Doctor said he didn’t know how James tossed a ball let alone pitch with the damage they found. Its unknown how he will recover.
by braves99 on Oct 16, 2008 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Chuck
I think the biggest case for Chuck’s rebound is that he was still pitching somewhat effectively in AAA. His velocity wasn’t necessarily down at all. When Andrews talked to him at first, Doc believed that it would be a 45 minute clean up procedure. It turned into a 3 1/2 hour surgery including at least 10 anchors in the labrum and rotator cuff. He basically had 3 major surgeries. If you look at his pitching decline since he first started talking about discomfort (in 2007), you’ll see the obvious pattern. He hadn’t felt like himself for quite some time (still posting a winning record with a low 4 era in 07). Andrews believed that Chuck’s cuff was actually very strong to withstand the damage that had already occurred.
by Whodunnit?4040 on Oct 16, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scouting report on Kimbrel at THT
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/breaking-down-the-draft-some-more-requests/
by 17843 on Oct 16, 2008 4:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Amazing how similar his delivery is to Anthony Reyes minus the high leg kick. Out of curiosity, why do they call it an “inverted W” instead of an “M”?
“Fast track to the major leagues” … “upside grades out to closer level” … there’s a lot to like here!
by scstrato on Oct 16, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by 




















