Battery Power - August 3: Braves 6, Cardinals 1Your one stop shop for everything Atlanta Braveshttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52890/favicon-32x32..png2021-08-03T23:07:14-04:00http://www.batterypower.com/rss/stream/223722932021-08-03T23:07:14-04:002021-08-03T23:07:14-04:00The rollercoaster ride continues as Braves beat Cardinals, 6-1
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<img alt="MLB: Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gmLNTL27F-LBVTg-j61rFP2oxu8=/0x0:4386x2924/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69675791/usa_today_16505983.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jeff Le-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>This is the loss-win pattern that never ends</p> <p id="AUu5iE">Once again, the Atlanta Braves have won a game after losing their previous game. The weird rollercoaster of mediocrity rolled into Busch Stadium as the Braves made easy work of the Cardinals to the tune of 6-1. </p>
<p id="e2oK5B">As it turned out, Atlanta’s third time facing Jon Lester this season ended up being the charm. Lester’s first start for the Cardinals ended up being an inauspicious one as the Braves started tagging him very early on. The Braves probably figured that they were in for a good time when Ozzie Albies (with his 6.8 percent career walk rate) coaxed a walk out of Lester to lead off the game. Jorge Soler took one pitch from Lester and then sent the second pitch into the bullpen in left-center field. After making one hundred percent sure that he had touched first base, Soler touched home to make it 2-0 Braves after two batters. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/solerpower12?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@solerpower12</a> is fitting in quite well!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ForTheA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ForTheA</a> <a href="https://t.co/Fd2Vsgtfbi">pic.twitter.com/Fd2Vsgtfbi</a></p>— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) <a href="https://twitter.com/Braves/status/1422714189550919681?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 4, 2021</a>
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<p id="C7e0tU">Soler’s homer was the second of seven consecutive Braves at-bats where the batter reached base. After Soler’s dinger, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, and Dansby Swanson all swatted singles. Swanson’s single brought in Freddie and it was 3-0 at that point. Following a walk from Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson got in on the fun by hitting a single of his own to plate Riley. Even Kevan Smith contributed to the runs — though predictably, he was the end of the hit parade. He grounded into a double play, but it was enough to bring in Atlanta’s fifth run of the first inning. Max Fried grounded out to end the inning, but you know that he was just happy to be hitting on the road before he had thrown his first pitch. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Can confirm reports of 1st inning fun.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BuiltFordTough?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BuiltFordTough</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ForTheA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ForTheA</a> <a href="https://t.co/cJ4D40yUIQ">pic.twitter.com/cJ4D40yUIQ</a></p>— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) <a href="https://twitter.com/Braves/status/1422715432310558726?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 4, 2021</a>
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<p id="KPLiaT">When the smoke cleared, the Braves found themselves ahead 5-0, and that ended up being more than enough run support for Max Fried tonight. Fried picked up his first two strikeouts of the night in the first inning and was a single from Dylan Carson away from finishing the inning in 1-2-3 fashion. The occasional single was just about all that the Cardinals could muster up on Fried tonight, as he absolutely clamped down on St. Louis and kept them off of the scoreboard while he was on the mound. I’d say that Fried managed to top that dominating performance he had against St. Louis back on June 18, which is definitely saying something about how well he pitched tonight. </p>
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<cite>Jeff Le-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="2PIT6I">Meanwhile, the Braves weren’t done with just the five runs in the first inning. Freddie Freeman had a three-hit night at the plate and his second hit was of the long ball variety. Freddie sent one into the seats that just about landed in fair territory to make it 6-0 Atlanta at that point. This was Freddie’s 24th home run of the season, who is continuously and steadily approaching the levels of production that saw him earn MVP honors during the 2020 season. It also basically made the game even more comfortable for Max Fried and the Braves than what it already was.</p>
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<p lang="und" dir="ltr"> !<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ForTheA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ForTheA</a> <a href="https://t.co/qlP1TDXNA8">pic.twitter.com/qlP1TDXNA8</a></p>— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) <a href="https://twitter.com/Braves/status/1422721452835549184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 4, 2021</a>
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<p id="UPhNrw">Fried ended up going six innings while striking out seven and only giving up four hits and a walk. Jesse Chavez, Edgar Santana, and Josh Tomlin (who gave up a run in the ninth inning to spoil the shutout) all banded together to close things out for the Braves, who picked up their 53rd win of the season in comfortable fashion. It was also their 18th win against NL Central competition — comparatively, the Cardinals have won 19 games against the NL Central and they actually play in that division. </p>
<p id="7ukpjg">Anyways, this was a really solid and comprehensive win for the Braves and now they will attempt to deal with two of their most formidable foes of this season — one being a new villain and the other one being an old adversary here in 2021: The .500 mark and winning two games in a row. Tomorrow should be <em><strong>fun</strong></em>.</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2021/8/3/22608818/atlanta-braves-st-louis-cardinals-final-score-recap-freddie-freeman-jorge-soler-max-fried-loss-winDemetrius Bell2021-08-03T19:12:19-04:002021-08-03T19:12:19-04:00Game Thread 8/3/2021, Braves at Cardinals
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<img alt="Atlanta Braves v St Louis Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/X0OtDLu3kOfNAYxWn7Leg1qu1hU=/1x0:3000x1999/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69674980/1146158187.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Baseball beyond The Arch</p> <p id="9tYOEk">The Braves are set to take their strange alternating loss-win pattern on the road to St. Louis to take on the Cardinals. Both teams have been playing middle-of-the-road baseball all season, so each team will be looking to turn this series into a launching pad to something better in the future. Hopefully this is the beginning of the Braves getting out of their pattern and getting into winning ways as they enter into the latter stage of the season. </p>
<p id="bNWAFj"><a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/2021/8/3/22608074/atlanta-braves-st-louis-cardinals-game-preview-time-tv-channel-radio-streaming-max-fried-jon-lester">PREVIEW</a> | <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/2021/8/3/22608285/atlanta-braves-st-louis-cardinals-lineups-ozzie-albies-joc-pederson-why-is-kevan-smith-still-here">LINEUPS</a></p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2021/8/3/22608575/game-thread-atlanta-braves-at-st-louis-cardinals-discussion-chatDemetrius Bell2021-08-03T16:45:00-04:002021-08-03T16:45:00-04:00Ozzie Albies continues to lead off as Braves face Cardinals
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<img alt="Atlanta Braves v St Louis Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Mc-U-v3Lc1Q-HPoup3B42SIkuZ0=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69674208/1146338561.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The short-but-mighty second baseman continues to serve of the tip of Atlanta’s lineup spear.</p> <p id="XAdEUi">The lineups are now out for the series opener between the Braves and the Cardinals. Let’s waste no further time and get right into it, shall we?</p>
<p id="Aw4imy">As usual, we’ll start with the Braves:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/MaxFried32?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MaxFried32</a> takes the mound tonight in St. Louis!<br><br>Presented by <a href="https://twitter.com/TruistNews?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TruistNews</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ForTheA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ForTheA</a> <a href="https://t.co/okNOOGjuoI">pic.twitter.com/okNOOGjuoI</a></p>— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) <a href="https://twitter.com/Braves/status/1422648392635850753?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 3, 2021</a>
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<p id="sPeqt7">As noted in the headline, Ozzie Albies continues to bat leadoff for the Braves. Also, Jorge Soler is batting second for the second game in a row. My guess is that Brian Snitker feels like Soler is swinging a pretty hot bat at the moment (.247/.337/.562 and 141 wRC+ since July 1) so he may as well get him as many at-bats as possible. Joc Pederson returns to the lineup after serving as a pinch hitter for Sunday’s game. Kevan Smith is starting at catcher because of course Kevan Smith is starting at catcher. </p>
<p id="aWETHl">Meanwhile, here’s St. Louis:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">8/3 St Louis Cardinals Lineup:<br><br>1 2B Tommy Edman<br>2 RF Dylan Carlson<br>3 1B Paul Goldschmidt<br>4 3B Nolan Arenado<br>5 LF Tyler O'Neill<br>6 C Yadier Molina<br>7 CF Harrison Bader<br>8 SS Edmundo Sosa<br>9 P Jon Lester<br><br> SP:Jon Lester <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLFly?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLFly</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MLB?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MLB</a></p>— Grand Slam Picks (@GSMLBPicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/GSMLBPicks/status/1422651622589612045?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 3, 2021</a>
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<p id="qkKyif">Outside of shuffling some spots around in the batting order, this is the same eight guys who took the field for the Cardinals back on Sunday. I’m guessing that this is just them switching things up as they get ready to take on a lefty instead of a righty. Either way, no significant changes for the Cardinals tonight.</p>
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<cite>baseballsavant.com</cite>
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https://www.batterypower.com/2021/8/3/22608285/atlanta-braves-st-louis-cardinals-lineups-ozzie-albies-joc-pederson-why-is-kevan-smith-still-hereDemetrius Bell2021-08-03T15:40:52-04:002021-08-03T15:40:52-04:00Braves look to continue historic run of mediocrity in series opener against Cardinals
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<img alt="2019 NLDS Game 3 - Atlanta Braves v. St. Louis Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XF8Z-S0oOsHYKtZ3bAL4g_Mpsbc=/0x0:3669x2446/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69673817/1174196524.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>If the Braves win tonight, the weird pattern of wins and losses continues. If they lose, they’ll actually break the pattern. Guess we’re rooting for the pattern then?</p> <p id="JOJEPU">After finally getting a scheduled day off for the first time in a while, the Braves are set to continue their rollercoaster phase of the season with a trip to St. Louis to take on the Cardinals. </p>
<p id="TTBvzt">For the third time this season, the Braves will have to deal with Jon Lester being the starting pitcher for the opposing team. This time, Lester will be wearing a uniform with redbirds on it instead of a uniform sporting a curly “W” logo. Either way, the Braves didn’t exactly light up Lester during his previous two starts with the Nationals — the first start ended with the Braves picking up three runs on four hits over five innings back on May 6, then Lester clamped down and held the Braves to just one run over five hits as he made it two outs into the sixth inning. </p>
<p id="JHkqyA">Outside of pitching seven really strong innings against the Marlins back on July 19, July wasn’t exactly a banner month for the veteran hurler. Still, the Cardinals must have seen something they liked in Lester since they went out and added him to their pitching depth ahead of the trade deadline. Lester hasn’t really been great all season if we’re being honest, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if the Braves found themselves struggling to figure out Lester for a third time this season. Hopefully the third time around will result in the Braves figuring out what Lester has to offer and punishing him accordingly. </p>
<p id="qAqceH">Meanwhile, Max Fried will be getting the ball to start tonight’s game for the Braves. If Braves fans are worried about Lester befuddling the Braves then Cardinals fans may be just as leery of Fried as he takes the mound this evening. When he last saw St. Louis earlier this season, Fried had one of his best starts of the season where he threw seven innings and only gave up one run with two hits, two walks, and six strikeouts. The Braves went on to win that game in comfortable fashion and it would be really lovely if there was a repeat of that game from June 18. </p>
<p id="osu0xi">With that being said, things have changed significantly for the Braves since that game in mid-June. Gabe Burns summed it up pretty nicely with this tweet pointing out all of the new faces who are putting on Braves caps during this season:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">What if I told you in February these players would be Braves in August?<br>Joc Pederson<br>Guillermo Heredia<br>Abraham Almonte<br>Eddie Rosario<br>Jorge Soler<br>Adam Duvall<br>Ehire Adrianza<br>Stephen Vogt<br>Kevan Smith<br>Edgar Santana<br>Jesse Chavez<br>Richard Rodriguez</p>— Gabe Burns (@GabeBurnsAJC) <a href="https://twitter.com/GabeBurnsAJC/status/1422634070979358720?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 3, 2021</a>
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<p id="Kos8NN">Yeah, it’s been a weird season for sure. Also, we’re probably in the weirdest stage of this season since the Braves have been locked in a “loss-win” pattern since returning from the All-Star break. Back on July 16, the Braves lost to the Rays 7-6. They lost to Milwaukee on Sunday, and if the pattern continues then what you just read above when it comes to the pitching matchups may not matter at all if all of this is written in the stars. </p>
<p id="DXL6Qx">The Braves are currently on a historic run of mediocrity and tonight we’re going to see if it continues or if we finally see them go on a streak of some sort — unfortunately, that would mean consecutive losses if the pattern broke today. So I guess we’re rooting for the see-saw movement to continue, then? Again, it’s been a weird year. </p>
<h3 id="VKyAAz"><strong>Game Info</strong></h3>
<p id="yvC3b1"><strong>Game Date/Time:</strong> Tuesday, August 3, 8:15 p.m. ET</p>
<p id="KP7chR"><strong>Location:</strong> Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO</p>
<p id="JifzXu"><strong>TV</strong>: Bally Sports South</p>
<p id="CG0UEp"><strong>Streaming:</strong> MLB.tv</p>
<p id="bExeOZ"><strong>Radio:</strong> 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, WNNX 100.5, Braves Radio Network</p>
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https://www.batterypower.com/2021/8/3/22608074/atlanta-braves-st-louis-cardinals-game-preview-time-tv-channel-radio-streaming-max-fried-jon-lesterDemetrius Bell2021-08-03T13:00:00-04:002021-08-03T13:00:00-04:00Riley’s Believe It or Not: Production and Production
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<img alt="Atlanta Braves v New York Mets" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/r0NA03_S2IGq82r6H0cNgGgmx5k=/0x0:4460x2973/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69672732/1234275541.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>What an annoying thing to have happen to the Braves</p> <p id="a7V1xY">The 2021 season has been a slog for the Atlanta Braves, for all sorts of reasons. There are many reasons why teams expected to be good may end up with subpar records, but the Braves have been beset by more than a few of them. We won’t rehash them here. Instead, we’ll focus on a bright spot (well, sort of...): Austin Riley.</p>
<p id="R4QU6t">After a torrid six-week debut stretch that quickly cratered into some real poor hitting, Austin Riley came into the 2021 season as more of a question than an answer. He was handed the starter’s job at third base, but his career to date comprised an 87 wRC+ and 0.1 fWAR in 503 PAs. In some ways, that was an overly pessimistic outlook, as Riley had an above-average .333 xwOBA in 2020, which he underperformed to mirror his 2019 wOBA of .307. In any case, you all probably know that Riley has straight-up raked for much of the 2021 season.</p>
<p id="y2JRB7">For the year as a whole, Riley’s wRC+ sits at 136, and while he’s outhitting his xwOBA (.380 wOBA, .366 xwOBA), the latter is still quite good. He’s done a lot of things well, from pummeling the ball frequently (a barrel rate that’s nearly double league average) to drawing a lot of walks to avoiding grounders, and he’s victimized fastballs, including finally starting to hit even the harder ones quite well. The net result of all this good work is that among players with 130 or more PAs (chosen because it scales my preferred 200 PA threshold down by two-thirds, given that two-thirds of the season is complete to date), Riley is 44th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA (Truist Park is very offense-friendly these days), 40th in xwOBA (note that xwOBA is not scaled by park), and 21st in total hitting value generated. (Side note: Ronald Acuña Jr. hasn’t played for weeks and is still seventh in total hitting value.) While Riley’s success in 2021 to date is no guarantee of future offensive dominance, it’s safe to say that he’s gone from a speculative starter to probably having locked down a starting role for the foreseeable future, ascending into a spot in the Braves’ near-term core. In short — Austin Riley: he is now good at hitting baseballs.</p>
<p id="gEHiBs">So, Austin Riley’s been productive. Yet, he also hasn’t been <em>productive</em>. What do I mean? Well... here’s the thing: despite the gaudy offensive line, Riley somehow has negative WPA. (As a refresher, WPA is literally just a stat that tracks how a player’s hitting or pitching affect their team’s win probability of a given game. Each team starts with .500 WPA, and It’s also not like, “haha he has a slightly negative WPA” even though that too would be weird. It’s pretty negative! It currently sits at -0.24, and it’s been negative for about a month. (Riley was positive in WPA from May 16 through the first game of a June 21 doubleheader; he bounced around a bit after but was last positive on July 2.) Honestly, this whole post is pretty much just this chart:</p>
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<p id="NO47O0">I mean, on top of the Biblical-level <em>tsuris</em> the Braves have already dealt with, there’s also <em>this</em>? Major ugh. </p>
<p id="8OQs5Z">While the season isn’t over, and there’s some time for things to reverse themselves (for both Riley, and well, the Braves’ season), I wanted to see how uncommon this sort of phenomenon was. To do this, I need to use OPS+ and the Baseball-Reference formulation of WPA, which is slightly different from wRC+ and Fangraphs, but the idea is still the same: Riley has a 130 OPS+ and -0.5 WPA this season. In <em>baseball history</em>, there have only been 18 players to have an OPS+ of 130 or higher, and a WPA of -0.5 or lower for a season. Of those 18, only five had more PAs than Riley already has this season. Only one such season has occurred in this millennium. This is a stupid club to be a part of.</p>
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<p id="7D0byL">By the way, if you make the criteria more like the Fangraphs values (136 OPS+, -0.24 WPA) you’re left with just Bill Mueller’s 2003 and Edd Roush’s very sad 1918 among players with 400 or more PAs in a season. </p>
<p id="VjTcYk">There are other ways to express just how ridiculous this has been, too. </p>
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<p id="S5yKDx">Riley is that red bubble, obscured by the others. You might say, “So what? There are plenty of other bubbles in his vicinity.” But the bubbles here are scaled by number of PAs... what if we remove anyone with fewer than say, 260?</p>
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<p id="1EtKo0">Okay, Riley is a bit more dramatic, but we’ve still got some guys with less exposure than him. Let’s push it up to a 360 PA cutoff.</p>
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<p id="X0cogG">Austin Riley is literally the biggest WPA underperformer based on his wRC+ among this group of 110 players. Fun. “Fun.” You can do the same thing with batting runs; this makes things slightly better for Riley, as he’s no longer the worst underperformer of “expected WPA” — but he’s still third-worst, and the only guy with 360 or more PAs “rewarded” for his above-average hitting value with a below-average WPA.</p>
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<p id="A4vsSS">What about the other Braves? Is this some kind of team issue? No, the regulars all pretty much follow the pattern... except for Riley.</p>
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<p id="XVmW55">So, what’s going on, exactly? It’s not much of a mystery. The only real way you can have something like this happen is if you rake when WPA isn’t at stake, and do the opposite of rake when it is. To wit, Austin Riley’s 2021 splits:</p>
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<p id="mJWtsr">Yep, that’ll do it. Rake in low leverage. Rake in medium leverage. Implode in high leverage. And yet... while Riley’s walk and strikeout rates take a nosedive in high leverage, it’s hard to say that all of it has been his fault. I mean, look at this:</p>
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<p id="Nn74RW">I’m not a fan of using the Fangraphs “quality of contact” stats relative to what’s on Baseball Savant and available through Statcast, but still! In high leverage, Riley has a liner rate of almost 38 percent, yet his lowest BABIP across the three leverage types. He is not particularly pull-happy, and has the greatest rate of hard-hit balls. And yet, the results aren’t there. </p>
<p id="Lzvk4e">Unfortunately, we can’t do these types of splits using Baseball Savant (at least not yet, hint hint to humans who are reading this who might be able to do something about that). I tried to get close to it by querying specific situations, but I don’t think it really worked out.</p>
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<p id="BrZtaj">As you can see, none of these really mirror his sub-.230 wOBA in high leverage. In some cases the xwOBA is pretty bad, but in others it isn’t. All of these are extremely small cuts of his overall sample, though, so we’d expect a lot of erratic numbers here. </p>
<p id="RfRAPq">None of this really suggests it’s been a systematic struggle for Riley, but just a quirk of when certain results have occurred. We have “clutch” score exactly for such a reason, to compare performance in lower leverage versus higher leverage — a negative value means the player has performed better when leverage was lower; a positive value means the player has performed better when leverage was higher. In Riley’s debut season, he had a Clutch score of 1.11, which is really high. In 2020, it was -0.45. In 2021, it’s an absurd -1.81 so far — the second-worst in MLB. Who’s been more cursed than Riley? Former MVP Mookie Betts, with a Riley-esque 140 wRC+ but 0.05 WPA. But hey, at least Betts is in the positives. Riley, not so much.</p>
<p id="pXhczW">As a final note, I want to highlight the insane stretch that we just witnessed that led to this. It’s hard to do the sheer madness of it justice. Riley played in four games, including a doubleheader, between July 26 and July 28. His batting line over that stretch: a cool .400/.438/1.000 with three homers and a 270 wRC+ in 16 PAs. His WPA over that stretch? -0.45. </p>
<ul>
<li id="NJjpJh">On July 26, in the first game of the doubleheader, Riley went 1-for-3 with a walk... but hit into a double play with the bases loaded and one out.</li>
<li id="WlMUfS">On July 26, in the second game of the doubleheader, Riley went 2-for-3... but hit into a double play with men on the corners, one out, and the tying run on third base.</li>
<li id="K18mKt">On July 27, Riley went 2-for-5 with two homers. However, he hit into an out at the plate with the bases loaded and one out in the first. He finished the game with negative WPA.</li>
<li id="NquKk4">On July 28, he hit a game-tying homer... but down by a run with the tying run on third and one out, he struck out.</li>
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<p id="Fe8YSS">These aren’t the only ones, either. His WPA is substantially dinged by that crazy July 4 game against the Marlins, where he was thrown out trying to score the walkoff run at the plate after a would-be wild pitch, and also struck out to end the Braves’ ninth-inning rally. On May 21, he hit two bombs and finished with negative WPA. He had huge games on both April 21 and April 28, with a homer in each... and those two games netted out to just about zero WPA. Perhaps part of the story isn’t that Riley has gone ham when it hasn’t mattered, but that he hasn’t any “dinky single wins the game”-type occurrences. When Riley’s racked up WPA, he’s had big games. He’s had literally two games all season with a WPA over 0.06 and a game wRC+ below 100; Freddie Freeman has had six. </p>
<p id="FKn0Gn">All in all, this isn’t a <em>thing</em>. It’s a quirk. We may not even notice this by the end of the season, especially if Riley gets a game-winning single after an 0-for-4 day or something a couple of times. Or, results may ladder themselves totally differently across leverage next year. The problem is not one of process, just of results, because if Riley wasn’t the league’s second-worst batter by clutch, the Braves would probably have a few more wins. And that could make all the difference. Instead, they’ll have to muddle through this as well. When a team is having a losing season, it’s always <em>something</em>. But in the Braves’ case, this is one of way too many <em>somethings</em>. Maybe they’ll overcome them. Maybe they won’t. I’m sure more weird stuff like this will keep happening anyway.</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2021/8/3/22605911/austin-riley-believe-it-or-not-atlanta-braves-production-production-leverageIvan the Great2021-08-02T21:00:00-04:002021-08-02T21:00:00-04:00Braves hit the road again for quick three-game series against the Cardinals
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<p>Max Fried is coming off a strong start in New York. </p> <p id="6lKMju">After a well-deserved off day Monday, the <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a> will head back out on the road Tuesday where they will begin a three-game series against the <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a>. The Braves just wrapped up a grueling stretch that included a nine-game road trip through Philadelphia and New York before returning home to face the NL Central leading <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Milwaukee Brewers</a>. </p>
<p id="enFaCF">Atlanta dropped two of the three games against Milwaukee and will come into the series with a 52-54 record. They entered play Monday in third place in the NL East standings, four games behind the <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a>. </p>
<p id="hHyeZe">The Braves were active at the Trade Deadline, <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/2021/7/30/22602859/mlb-trade-deadline-coverage-atlanta-braves-adam-duvall-richard-rodriguez-alex-anthopoulos">pulling off a series of deals to add four players to the roster</a>. Alex Anthopoulos added to the team’s outfield depth with the additions of Adam Duvall from the Marlins, Jorge Soler from the Royals and Eddie Rosario from the Indians. Atlanta also added Pittsburgh closer Richard Rodriguez to the bullpen. The additions lengthen the team’s lineup and give Brian Snitker plenty of options when it comes to platoon situations in the outfield. </p>
<p id="tNlFVb">The Braves also got some good news this week in regards to a trio of injured players. Both Travis d’Arnaud and Huascar Ynoa began rehab assignments this week. <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/2021/8/1/22603912/atlanta-braves-news-ian-anderson-update-jorge-soler-richard-rodriguez-arrive">Ian Anderson is slated to throw another side session Monday</a> before the team departs for St. Louis and could be ready to begin a rehab assignment soon as well. Rosario is also currently on the Injured List but Alex Anthopoulos said Friday that he i<a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/2021/7/30/22602598/mlb-trade-deadline-alex-anthopoulos-atlanta-braves-additions-adam-duvall-jorge-soler">s nearing a return and could also begin a rehab assignment soon</a>. So, Atlanta’s roster looks different now given the new additions and could add four more players to the mix at some point this month. </p>
<p id="q6hp6K">The Braves took three of the four games they played against the Cardinals in June at Truist Park but are just 25-27 on the road and just 22-28 against teams with a winning record. Atlanta, of course, hasn’t spent a day this season with a winning record and hasn’t been at the .500 mark since July 10, when they were 44-44. </p>
<p id="24p4ie">St. Louis comes into the series with a 53-52 record and are currently in third place in the NL Central. They are currently in the midst of a nine-game homestand and just took two of three against the <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Minnesota Twins</a>. While not really thought of as a contender this season after their 10-17 June, the Cardinals haven’t had a bad month other than that one. However, the team’s struggled to put up even average value on either side of the ball. They have a productive quintet with Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson, but not much in the way of hitting beyond that, while the ageless Adam Wainwright has been their best hurler.</p>
<p id="RvaIz6">The Cardinals didn’t do a lot at the Trade Deadline but did pick up a pair of veteran starters in Jon Lester and J.A. Happ and both are scheduled to pitch in the upcoming series. </p>
<h3 id="Jn6KGp"><strong>Tuesday, August 3, 8:15 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)</strong></h3>
<p id="QroNH5"><strong>Max Fried (17 GS, 91.2 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.1 BB%, 4.32 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, 104 ERA-)</strong></p>
<p id="d6qwQR">Max Fried will make his 18th start of the season for the Braves in Tuesday’s series opener. Fried turned in a great performance in his last start, allowing five hits and two runs while striking out nine over seven innings. Unfortunately, he ended up on the wrong side of a 2-1 loss to the Mets. That was the second time in three starts that Fried has gone at least seven innings. He faced the Cardinals back on June 18 and held them to two hits and a run over seven innings in a Braves victory. Fried is constantly waging a war against his peripherals in one direction or another, and this season, his run prevention’s been worse than his underlying performance.</p>
<p id="WtVe86"><strong>Jon Lester (16 GS, 75.1 IP, 14.9 K%, 8.5 BB%, 5.02 ERA, 5.41 FIP, 5.18 xFIP, 120 ERA-)</strong></p>
<p id="IEHSxZ">The Cardinals acquired Jon Lester from the <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Washington Nationals</a> at the deadline in exchange for outfielder Lane Thomas. Lester struggled in 16 starts with the Nationals, posting a 5.02 ERA and a 5.41 FIP in 75 1/3 innings. His last start was on July 24 where he allowed three hits and three runs in five innings against the Orioles. He has faced the Braves twice this season allowing a combined nine hits and four runs in 10 2/3 innings. </p>
<h3 id="xIj2Pf"><strong>Wednesday, August 4, 8:15 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)</strong></h3>
<p id="ZCaRp6"><strong>Drew Smyly (18 GS, 92.0 IP, 20.9 K%, 8.5 BB%, 4.40 ERA, 5.04 FIP, 4.79 xFIP, 106 ERA-)</strong></p>
<p id="kzvdum">Drew Smyly will get the start for the Braves Wednesday. Smyly left his start on July 24 against the Mets after just four innings due to some knee soreness. He didn’t miss a turn but wasn’t sharp, allowing nine hits and three runs in just four innings, including a two-run homer by Pete Alonso when he was sent back out to face the lineup for a third time. Smyly needed 30 pitches to get through the first inning and labored but was able to keep the Braves in the game. He faced St. Louis back on June 20 and allowed just one hit and three walks over 5 2/3 scoreless innings, getting pulled only after losing his no-hitter in the sixth. </p>
<p id="Y6555l"><strong>J.A. Happ (19 GS, 98.1 IP, 17.3 K%, 7.0 BB%, 6.77 ERA, 5.40 FIP, 5.28 xFIP, 155 ERA-)</strong></p>
<p id="mcjwr4">J.A. Happ will make his first start for the Cardinals Wednesday after he was acquired from the Twins a few days ago in exchange for pitchers John Gant and Evan Sisk. Happ needed a change of scenery after struggling to the tune of a 6.77 ERA and a 5.40 FIP in 98 1/3 innings with Minnesota. He was hammered in his last start Wednesday, allowing 10 hits and nine runs in just three innings against Detroit. </p>
<h3 id="DNRTay"><strong>Thursday, August 5, 8:15 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)</strong></h3>
<p id="5HjxWa"><strong>Touki Toussaint (3 GS, 17.0 IP, 28.2 K%, 5.6 BB%, 4.76 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, 114 ERA-)</strong></p>
<p id="ki5Bn4">Touki Toussaint will be trying to bounce back from a rough outing when he takes the ball in Thursday’s series finale. Toussaint was lights out in his first two starts of the season but was unable to escape the fourth inning in Friday’s loss to the Brewers. Despite being staked to an early 4-0 lead, Toussaint was chased after allowing six hits, two walks and seven runs in just 3 1/3 innings. If he isn’t breezing through the St. Louis bats in this one, it’ll be interesting to see if the Braves actually consider pulling him before things go south.</p>
<p id="NGG1lZ"><strong>Wade LeBlanc (16 G, 7 GS, 41.0 IP, 14.4 K%, 6.9 BB%, 4.17 ERA, 4.99 FIP, 5.35 xFIP, 102 ERA-)</strong></p>
<p id="7sJXTx">Wade LeBlanc will make his eight start of the season and his seventh for the Cardinals since signing on in the middle of June. LeBlanc began the season with the Orioles and made six appearances with them before being released. He also had stints with Milwaukee and Texas before coming to St. Louis. He allowed six hits and one run in 5 2/3 innings against the Twins this past Friday. He has allowed three runs or fewer in all six of his starts for the Cardinals, albeit with terrible peripherals only propped up by a strand rate near 90 percent. He made a pair of relief appearances against Atlanta this season allowing two hits in 3 1/3 scoreless innings. </p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2021/8/2/22605099/braves-vs-cardinals-series-preview-time-tv-schedule-pitching-matchupsKris Willis