A fun and common theme over the the past few months without sports has been “rankings” articles on numerous topics. From ranking the best players at each position in baseball history to ranking the best avatar on Twitter, it seems this format is a fun way to create content and interaction. With that in mind, it seems a fun ranking exercise concerning the Braves would be focusing on which players mean the most to the Braves future. I feel it would be rather easy to identify the Top Five currently on the roster:
- Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Ozzie Albies
- Freddie Freeman
- Mike Soroka
- Max Fried
I think most would agree these five names are viewed as being the most critical to the Braves chances of winning a World Series in the present and near future. Sure, you likely could debate places 2-5 and come up with several different logical orders. However, these five players are the future core of our team, and a big reason as to why Atlanta has one of the brightest futures in Major League Baseball. So, if within this particular exercise it is simple to identify a Top Five, it seems the real fun may start in determining the next guy on the list. I feel a strong case could be made for several individuals; however, in my opinion, the answer is actually pretty clear. His name is Dansby Swanson.
I actually am having a bit of a laugh as i write this, because you could easily label me as an agent of chaos or just a hypocrite. The reason being is that, just six months ago, I suggested that perhaps the best thing the Braves could do over the 2020 off-season was trade Swanson in a package for a true difference makeR that could make them legitimate World Series favorites. I actually still stand by this logic if the right situation were to emerge; however, it seems very unlikely to occur. As I mentioned then, it makes just as much sense for the Braves to invest in Swanson’s future for the long-term as it does to trade him for an upgrade.
In that article, I detailed several reasons as to why Swanson is a bit of a paradox when it comes to determining his future with the Braves. Simply put, over the past two seasons, Swanson has shown clear All-Star level potential when he plays; however, he also has displayed doubts about his durability. In 2019 alone, Swanson’s season shifted from finishing in the Top 3 of the NL All-Star voting for shortstops to debates about whether he should be starting in the NLDS due to his immense struggles returning from a late season heel injury. Fortunately, common sense prevailed, and along with starting every game of the series, Swanson was arguably the Braves’ best offensive player against the Cardinals.
Though Swanson has experienced some variation on the field during his career, he certainly has remained one of the most well liked Braves off of it. It is clear that the players and fans love having him as a part of the organization, and that he loves being a part of it as well. As a result, it would seem that if an extension were to be a possibility, both the Braves and Swanson would have interest in making something make sense.
However, despite what both sides may want, fulfilling the long-term need of having a significant contributor at the shortstop position is what matters. Determining whether Swanson is the answer to that need depends on both internal and external factors concerning the former number one overall pick. In terms of what he can control, Swanson has shown consistent improvement as his career has progressed. At first glance, a career .245/.318./.385 triple slash line, along with a .703 OPS is certainly less than encouraging for a player of Swanson’s pedigree over three full seasons into his career. However, in Swanson’s case, a deeper dive into the details may offer a bit more encouragement than settling at the surface.
As mentioned above, to this point, Swanson’s career has been best defined by clear progression halted by unfortunate injuries. Though his career OPS may be disappointing, Swanson’s performances when healthy are actually quite encouraging. For instance, below is the first half performances of Swanson’s career from 2017-2019:
The significant growth in Swanson’s production is clear. His OPS has improved by nearly 200 points, while his ISO measure has doubled. The significance of this data collection is simple to see: the talent that everyone knows Swanson possesses is clearly evident when he can remain healthy. Swanson finishing in the top 3 of the 2019 All-Star vote shows he has and can produce as one of the top shortstops in the National League, and if he can stay healthy, perhaps all of baseball.
The key for Swanson is a factor that can be both in and out of his control: his health. Whether or not he is injury prone can certainly be debated, but a wrist injury that hampered him to end 2018 and a heel injury that basically made him a non-factor for the final two months of 2019 are as relevant as they are random. Swanson’s progression toward being a significant contributor when healthy is certainly apparent from the numbers above as he as been mostly healthy before the All-Star Break in 2017. 2018, and 2019. However, his career ,672 OPS after the All-Star Break is less than inspiring, but is heavily influenced by injuries. In other words, it is clear that Swanson can be an above average player at his position when healthy; however, it is unclear as to whether or not he will be able to consistently do that for a full season.
Beyond Swanson himself, another factor that could be worth considering is how Swanson compares to his peers. Over the past two years, 21 players have played at least 200 games at shortstop. Among this group, Swanson ranks 16th in bWAR, and is among the Top 15 in most offensive categories. Overall, Swanson has shown that he can add positive value both offensively and defensively. Despite his battle with injuries, Swanson has been on par with his peers. In fact, he has shown flashes of being among the best shortstops in the majors both defensively (2018) and offensively (pre heel injury 2019). Of course, this is yet another perspective that shows Swanson’s ability while raising questions about his durability.
In fact, that is likely what a Swanson extension comes down too: can he play to his full offensive and defensive potential over a full season, and can he do that consistently?
If he could, it is not far-fetched to think that Swanson could reach a level of being worth around 4 WAR on an annual basis, with a pretty convincing case that he would be a Top 10 shortstop in the majors. However, even if Swanson does not reach that level, if he could simply remain healthy, Swanson could easily achieve 2 to 3 WAR production value during his prime. Evidence can be found in the 3-Year ZIPS projections for Swanson:
Though Swanson’s projected fWAR ranges between 1.5-1.8, his first half production in 2019 may make these projections a bit conservative. Before his injury on July 24th of last year, Swanson had produced 1.8 fWAR, with a 3 fWAR season realistically in sight. Furthermore, despite his injury struggles, Swanson averaged 1.7 fWAR between 2018 and 2019. Combined with his average to above average defense, Swanson’s progression at the plate has turned him into a player that can produce at least at a 2 fWAR level when he plays. For reference, over the past three years, only 16 shortstops have been worth at least 6 fWAR.
The significance of these details leads to one logical conclusion regarding Swanson: when he plays, it is easy to see Swanson being an above average shortstop for the foreseeable future.
It seems the Braves share a similar opinion regarding Swanson. Through past trade speculation and injury struggles, there has been little doubt that Swanson is the Braves shortstop of the present and future. At the end of last season, Swanson had gained slightly more than three years of service time. In his first potential journey through arbitration, Swanson settled on a $3.15M deal with the Braves, and will be under team control through 2022. This means two more potential arbitration scenarios for the Braves and Swanson to endure before he becomes a free agent.
When considering all the information above, some logic suggests the Braves could let Swanson’s scenario play out year by year. However, with last year as proof, Swanson could be primed for a breakout at any time. Furthermore, compared to his peers and the talent pool distribution in Atlanta and the farm system, it makes even more sense for the Braves to be proactive and invest in a player who can be a significant producer at a premium position for years to come.
With the commitment the Braves have shown toward Swanson up to this point in his career, it certainly seems as if Atlanta feels Swanson could be that significant contributor instead of being used as a piece to gain that significant contributor. As a result, it seems as if now is the time to see how sensible a long-term commitment might be. Atlanta has enough proof that Swanson can certainly be a true difference maker when healthy; however, he may price himself out of Atlanta’s future plans if he overcomes his injury questions and has a true breakout in the next year or two. While that would certainly not be a negative for Swanson or the Braves, it could make his long-term future in Atlanta less certain.
Therefore, if its relatively easy to see that Atlanta should look to extend Swanson, then the question shifts to what price and term fits in their comfort level. At the age of 26, Swanson is at the beginning of his prime, and has offered proof he can step up at any moment on any stage. Unlike clear extension comparisons that were easy to find in regards to Freddie Freeman, comparable situations for Swanson are a bit more complicated.
As shown in the link above in terms of offensive production, Swanson’s closest peers are Nick Ahmed and Andrelton Simmons. However, both Ahmed and Simmons are nearly four years older than Swanson and well within their primes. Furthermore, both Simmons and Ahmed have been significantly more valuable than Swanson due to their elite defensive play. In terms of age and progression of value, Tim Anderson and Paul DeJong perhaps become better measures of pricing value. Like Anderson, Swanson enjoyed a big step forward offensively last year before his injury. Like DeJong, Swanson was in the All-Star running and showed similar power production at the plate. However, due to more consistent health, both DeJong and Anderson have shown higher levels of production on offense (Anderson), defense (DeJong), and in terms of power (both, though luck was a bit involved).
The connection between Simmons, Ahmed, Anderson, and DeJong is that each of these players signed extensions before free agency. Simmons, Anderson, and DeJong signed their extensions much earlier than where Swanson currently stands in terms of service time. While Ahmed could arguably be the closest comparison to Swanson over the past few years in terms of offensive value, his recent four year, $32M extension with Arizona was agreed too with Ahmed being four years older and two years further along with his service time. As a result, its hard to find a solid source to be a potential model for a Swanson extension among these four players.
However, one recent extension that could serve as a basis in potential talks between Swanson and the Braves is the one agreed to between the Minnesota Twins and Jorge Polanco before the 2019 season. Though Polanco was one year earlier on the service time scale, his batted ball profile over the past few years is very similar to Swanson. Also similar to Swanson in 2019, Polanco enjoyed an offensive breakout at a very similar age, making his 5 year, $25M dollar extension look like an instant bargain. Of course, the significant difference between Polanco and Swanson was Polanco’s steroid suspension in 2018. Though both players have had instances in their past that offer concerns for their future, Polanco’s issues made the need to take guaranteed money much more of a priority than the need may be in Swanson’s situation.
As can be seen, though it seems quite logical for the Braves to pursue an extension with Swanson, the price and term of the extension are a bit complicated to sort out. Based off his pedigree, potential and recent production when healthy, Swanson could be perfectly content playing the waiting game until he is a free agent. Even if another injury occurs, one breakout season over the next few years could certainly result in a hefty payday. However, with the current concerns around COVID-19’s impact on the future finances in the game along with the already increased likelihood that the earnings structure for players could change in CBA negotiations, Swanson may see the incentive of extending free agency a year or two in order to lock in a respectable payday for the foreseeable future.
As a result, with all factors considered, a three year extension worth $25M-30M could make sense with an option built in for a fourth year. The salaries could increase on scale at a rate of around $6M in 2021, $10M in 2022, and $13M-$15M in 2023 with a team or mutual option for around $15M in 2024. The incentive for Swanson is that for each of the next three years his salary doubles and he still is able to enter free agency relatively young at 30 or 31 to get another big payday. For the Braves, there is plenty of room for Swanson to make his deal a bargain as Atlanta is basically paying him to settle into being worth 1.5-2 WAR per season with the knowledge that he has the talent to be worth significantly more. Furthermore, this deal follows the current market trends for shortstop salaries. Though there are just a few current shortstops earning eight figures per season, there will likely be more over the next few years as talents similar to Swanson get closer to free agency.
In the end, there certainly are pros and cons to be considered. However, Dansby Swanson is an improving and significant talent that is well-liked on and off the field. Though his career up to this point may not have followed an ideal path, there are plenty of reasons for the Braves to makes sure his career stays on a productive path in Atlanta for the foreseeable future.