On the Braves’ trade deadline plans, winning now and winning later

As we sit here on July 19, the Braves might be the most fascinating team in baseball.

They're 58-40, good for a 5.5 game lead in the East and the 5th best record overall. Teams don’t reach 18 games above .500 by accident. They will be buyers at the trade deadline if the right deal comes along. This is a good team.

You have to ask yourself, though, how the hell are they doing it?

Let’s act like it’s the final week of Spring Training. I would tell you the Braves would:

• Demote Mike Foltynewicz to the minors with a 6.37 ERA.
• Mercifully place Kevin Gausman on the IL with a 6.21 ERA.
• Get next to nothing out of Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson or Touki Toussaint.
• Send Sean Newcomb to the minors (and then to the bullpen) out of desperation.
• Watch AJ Minter struggle his way to a 7.40 ERA.
• Receive a total of four innings from Arodys Vizcaino and Darren O’Day.
• And get underwhelming performances out of Ender Inciarte and Johan Camargo.

You’d probably think the Braves were sitting in 4th place with no chance of a playoff appearance, let alone a World Series run if a few things broke their way.

But that’s not the case. They’re in this. This might be their best team — current flaws and all — in more than a decade.

And that brings us to the trade deadline, on which no one knows what the Braves will do. The next 10 days or so will likely shape those plans. There are a few obvious holes that need to be addressed. But at what cost?

The starting rotation is not in a good place at the moment. Mike Soroka, 21, has never pitched a full big league season before. Dallas Keuchel has been good-not-great but with his pedigree you’re trusting him with a playoff start. That’s two. And then you get into Max Fried (currently injured with yet another blister, has never thrown a full season), Julio Teheran (whose numbers are a lot uglier if you remove his three starts against the lowly Marlins) and a couple wild cards in Kevin Gausman and Mike Foltynewicz. Perhaps the Braves get a rejuvenated Gausman and/or Foltynewicz for the stretch run, but that is far from guaranteed.

The bullpen isn’t in much better shape despite what the numbers show over the last two months. Without going over the entire state of the bullpen and boring you, we know where things stand. You feel decently about Luke Jackson, Anthony Swarzak, Sean Newcomb and Jacob Webb once he gets healthy. And that’s about it, especially in a playoff game where starts get shorted and the pressure falls on the bullpen for the final outs.

And that brings us to the trade deadline, winning now and winning tomorrow.

It’s going to be a seller’s market. With so many teams hovering around .500 or better — and some teams with legitimate World Series aspirations in New York, Los Angeles, Houston and elsewhere — there are only so many move-the-needle players available. Teams that sell should be able to get big returns even if they only have rentals to offer.

This put the Braves in a curious position.

Is this team good enough to win the NL East as currently assembled? Probably.

Is this team good enough to win a playoff series? Maybe.

Is this team good enough to win the NL Pennant for the first time in 20 years? I don’t think so unless they add significant talent over the next two weeks.

Based on the three questions above, most fans would say “Go for it!” and try to improve the roster where it so badly needs reinforcements.

There is a fine line between going for it and not overpaying for players who will be gone in three months (or even a year and three months). The Braves, as stated before, are in a fascinating position in this regard.

Alex Anthopoulos can go out and get any player he wants. He could outbid any other General Manager if he wanted to. He has the high-upside, controllable talent in the minor leagues that teams covet.

Let’s say the Braves want to take on Marcus Stroman and Ken Giles to put a damn it we’re going for it notice up for the rest of the league. Or they take on the tantalizing Matthew Boyd. Or they pony up for Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith should the Giants cool off.

Are you willing to give up some of that young talent the Braves spent years acquiring during a painful rebuild? Because that’s what it’s going to take. You want Stroman and Giles? I’d imagine Toronto doesn’t say yes without the inclusion of Cristian Pache, Ian Anderson or Drew Waters. You want controllable Boyd? You can bet one of those three guys would be asked for. Bumgarner and Smith, perhaps the two most coveted pitchers on the market? I can’t imagine San Francisco settling for anything less than a king’s ransom with so many interested teams.

All of this is to say: Alex Anthopoulos is in an unenviable situation. If he goes for it and the Braves falter in the playoffs once again, he gave away prospects with nothing to show for it. If he keeps a steady hand, doesn’t dip into his talent pool and the Braves falter in September and October as they have done so recently over the last 20 years, he will be criticized as too conservative and that he wasted a chance to make some real noise. Will he be able to find the middle ground?

The Braves are in a remarkable place as we near the end of July. It sure beats selling off assets like they did in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This trade deadline is more important than any I can recall for Atlanta. The next 10 days should be fascinating.