Now that we have done this for three years we fans (F) are starting to get a handle on how our lists compare to the generalist pros (G) and team experts (T). Obviously, since we are a combination of all the lists we have read we could have a natural advantage, as well as coming out last or towards the end we have more data inputs. However, I have for awhile been a critic on lists weighing nearness to the bigs over scouting reports and production and ranking pitching on par with hitters. The latter because pitchers are more volatile due to injury and now their production is further hurt by pitch counts and inning limits. Anyway, let's review the prior entrants:
2016MLB | WAR+EST VALUE | ||||
Ranker | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
G | Fangraphs | 1,147 | 1,047 | 1,247 | |
F | Cortyrone | 1,056 | 1,515 | 1,677 | |
T | Gond | 1,147 | 1,098 | 1,289 | |
T | TC | 1,170 | 1,187 | 1,375 | |
G | BA | 1,123 | 1,079 | 1,237 | |
F | TCC | 1,099 | 1,304 | 1,483 | |
T | McAuley | 1,168 | 1,138 | 1,289 | |
G | Sickels | 1,054 | 1,272 | 1,492 | |
T | Chase | 1,095 | 1,232 | 1,475 | |
G | Law | 1,073 | 1,370 | 1,539 | |
F | Mr. Sanchez | 1,134 | 1,395 | 1,595 | |
F | Ivan the Great | 1,105 | 1,067 | 1,155 | |
F | K26dp | 1,126 | 1,302 | 1,489 | |
F | Jsorel | 1,150 | 1,334 | 1,562 | |
F | JMUBraves | 1,154 | 1,295 | 1,505 | |
F | bravesfan101 | 1,131 | 1,409 | 1,559 | |
F | Loganutk | 1,185 | 1,353 | 1,541 | |
F | Bravesfan762 | 1,136 | 1,426 | 1,611 | |
F | Wilber3 | 1,138 | 1,046 | 1,243 | |
F | BravesRays | 1,112 | 1,226 | 1,485 | |
F | BackOnMyBullshit | 1,144 | 1,443 | 1,659 | |
F | Braves24 | 1,115 | 1,368 | 1,545 | |
F | Jeremy Zimmerman | 1,059 | 1,458 | 1,662 | |
F | 1,123 | 1,329 | 1,518 | ||
G | 1,099 | 1,192 | 1,379 | ||
T | 1,145 | 1,164 | 1,357 | ||
max | 1184.85 | 1514.85 | 1677.45 | ||
min | 1053.95 | 1045.55 | 1154.55 | ||
WAR POINTS ADJUSTED TO 100 GRADE SCALE | |||||
2016 Braves | WAR+EST VALUE | ||||
Ranker | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Ltr Gr | |
G | Fangraphs | 96.80 | 69.12 | 74.34 | C |
F | Cortyrone | 89.12 | 100.00 | 100.00 | A+ |
T | Gond | 96.77 | 72.46 | 76.81 | C |
T | TC | 98.72 | 78.34 | 81.97 | B- |
G | BA | 94.78 | 71.25 | 73.75 | C |
F | TCC | 92.79 | 86.08 | 88.43 | B+ |
T | McAuley | 98.55 | 75.13 | 76.86 | C |
G | Sickels | 88.95 | 83.98 | 88.94 | B+ |
T | Chase | 92.43 | 81.30 | 87.95 | B+ |
G | Law | 90.56 | 90.42 | 91.74 | A- |
F | Mr. Sanchez | 95.68 | 92.07 | 95.10 | A |
F | Ivan the Great | 93.23 | 70.41 | 68.83 | D+ |
F | K26dp | 95.06 | 85.94 | 88.77 | B+ |
F | Jsorel | 97.04 | 88.07 | 93.10 | A |
F | JMUBraves | 97.42 | 85.46 | 89.70 | B+ |
F | bravesfan101 | 95.45 | 92.99 | 92.95 | A- |
F | Loganutk | 100.00 | 89.33 | 91.86 | A- |
F | Bravesfan762 | 95.90 | 94.12 | 96.07 | A |
F | Wilber3 | 96.04 | 69.02 | 74.12 | C |
F | BravesRays | 93.89 | 80.92 | 88.55 | B+ |
F | BackOnMyBullshit | 96.56 | 95.28 | 98.90 | A+ |
F | Braves24 | 94.13 | 90.30 | 92.11 | A- |
F | Jeremy Zimmerman | 89.37 | 96.25 | 99.05 | A+ |
F | 94.78 | 87.75 | 90.50 | ||
G | 92.77 | 78.69 | 82.19 | ||
T | 96.62 | 76.81 | 80.90 |
In 2016 fans dominated the experts. Fans were much more aggressive on Ronald Acuna Jr who is now generating huge points with 20.2 WAR for first 6 years. The worst entrant was TC favorite Ivan the Great or maybe this case Ivan the Horrible:) Ivan did not rank Acuna Jr in his top 20 (an artificial cut-off to get the most participants while still adding depth), ranked Albies 4.5th and Riley 18th. Additionally, as he did tiers he considered Albies the equivalent of Allard, Toussaint and Blair (yikes). 2016 was an interesting year, because the best talents were far away and weighing near ready prospects highly like Olivera, Blair, Jenkins absolutely crushed the experts.
2017MLB | WAR+EST VALUE | |||
Ranker | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
G | Fangraphs | 1,841 | 1,715 | |
F | Cortyrone | 1,867 | 1,833 | |
T | Gond | 1,765 | 1,671 | |
T | TC | 1,953 | 1,842 | |
G | BA | 1,889 | 1,844 | |
F | TCC | 1,894 | 1,794 | |
T | McAuley | 1,817 | 1,702 | |
G | Sickels | 1,894 | 1,784 | |
T | Chase | 1,882 | 1,781 | |
G | Law | 1,883 | 1,708 | |
G | MLB Pipeline | 1,869 | 1,759 | |
F | Mr. Sanchez | 1,909 | 1,826 | |
F | BackOnMyBullshit | 1,915 | 1,789 | |
F | Loganutk | 1,883 | 1,737 | |
F | longtimebravesfan43 | 1,873 | 1,771 | |
F | Blake_Owen31 | 1,946 | 1,834 | |
F | Braves95 | 1,890 | 1,805 | |
F | Rodrda01 | 1,908 | 1,800 | |
F | usc11mtc | 1,835 | 1,708 | |
F | ncristoldeman | 1,833 | 1,743 | |
F | Adamhoz | 1,915 | 1,840 | |
F | Fredi's Hot Hand | 1,896 | 1,818 | |
F | 1,890 | 1,792 | ||
G | 1,875 | 1,762 | ||
T | 1,854 | 1,749 | ||
max | 1952.7 | 1844.1 | ||
min | 1765.4 | 1671.45 | ||
2017 Braves | ||||
Ranker | 2018 | 2019 | ||
G | Fangraphs | 94.28 | 93.02 | A |
F | Cortyrone | 95.60 | 99.38 | A+ |
T | Gond | 90.41 | 90.64 | A- |
T | TC | 100.00 | 99.89 | A+ |
G | BA | 96.76 | 100.00 | A+ |
F | TCC | 97.01 | 97.27 | A+ |
T | McAuley | 93.07 | 92.27 | A- |
G | Sickels | 96.97 | 96.74 | A |
T | Chase | 96.39 | 96.56 | A |
G | Law | 96.45 | 92.62 | A- |
G | MLB Pipeline | 95.72 | 95.38 | A |
F | Mr. Sanchez | 97.77 | 99.00 | A+ |
F | BackOnMyBullshit | 98.08 | 96.99 | A |
F | Loganutk | 96.41 | 94.18 | A |
F | longtimebravesfan43 | 95.93 | 96.04 | A |
F | Blake_Owen31 | 99.66 | 99.45 | A+ |
F | Braves95 | 96.77 | 97.88 | A+ |
F | Rodrda01 | 97.71 | 97.61 | A+ |
F | usc11mtc | 93.98 | 92.60 | A- |
F | ncristoldeman | 93.87 | 94.54 | A |
F | Adamhoz | 98.05 | 99.75 | A+ |
F | Fredi's Hot Hand | 97.11 | 98.56 | A+ |
F | 96.77 | 97.17 | ||
G | 96.04 | 95.55 | ||
T | 94.97 | 94.84 |
In 2017 the fans are winning again with a narrow margin. The Talking Chop crew are sitting a close 2nd to BA right now, but unlike 2016 the spread remains very small as the worst score is a 90.64 by Gondee. He ranked Acuna Jr 14th and McAuley ranked him 13th. Again fans were most high on Acuna Jr as RAJ got 3 2nd place votes from fans. If his 20 WAR grows to 30-40 then those three ballots will get a big boost vs the field.
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In 2018 we are dealing with very recent information so again we are all bunched together, but again the fans have taken the lead. Interesting the worst two entrants were Talking Chop at an excellent 94.03 and Ivan again at an even better 95.47. The surprise there frankly is that (1) MLB pipeline could not be bested and (2) Ivan used a systematic analysis of grades and rankings from pros and is already trailing. At this point I don't quite trust the math! Perhaps the prospect grades skewed Ivan's analysis into an unfavorable direction.
Anyway, on to the 2019 rankings. In the TCC List in Round 1 I posted the following:
I actually consider 4 hitters to be in my top 5. I think we can conservatively project more reliable value from them. I’m sure we have a healthy ace in our system I just have no idea if it is Touki, Gohara, Wright, Wilson, Weigel, Fried, Wentz, Mueller, Anderson or Soroka.
Ultimately I like Waters’ feel to hit more than Pache’s to the point I can push his sublime defense to #2.
I agree with Touki as the best bet for now but my confidence is quite low so I put him 4th between Contreras and Riley.
I don't see much reason to change so here we go:
1. Drew Waters, OF
2. Christian Pache, OF
3. William Contreras, C
4. Touki Toussaint, SP
5. Austin Riley, 3B
6. Ian Anderson, SP
7. Kyle Wright, SP
8. Bryse Wilson, SP
9. Kyle Muller, SP
10. Patrick Weigel, SP
11. Joey Wentz, SP
12. CJ Alexander, 3B
13. Tucker Davidson, SP
14. Chad Sobotka, RP
15. Freddy Tarnok, SP
16. Grayson Jenista, OF
17. Trey Riley, SP
18. Kolby Allard, SP
19. Tristan beck, SP
20. Jasseel De La Cruz, SP
21. Huascar Ynoa, SP
22. Izzy Wilson, OF
23. Alex Jackson, C
24. Riley Delgado, SS
25. Jeffrey Ramos, OF
26. Jacob Webb, RP
27. Justin Dean, OF
28. Victor Vodnik, SS
29. AJ Graffanino, SS
30. Gabriel Rodriguez, SP
There's mine, time to post yours!
Please, note Gohara does not have rookie eligibility and I will ignore any ranking of him. Finally if you want to see the analysis, Getting a bit unwieldy but here it is:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AhDXN7HyO0M-aY_I2JTiWfeJJYWPjgtlOgpF-bFyojM/edit?usp=sharing