The big (only?) news of this week in the baseball world is the signing of Bryce Harper to the Philadelphia Phillies on a budget-busting 13 (THIRTEEN?!) year, $330 million contract. Regarded by many as the big prize of the offseason, whichever team Harper signed with was going to be one of the big stories of the year. The Phillies, along with nearly every other NL East rival, got a whole lot stronger for 2019, and many Braves fans who have been disappointed with the post-Josh Donaldson inactivity shown by the team are very concerned about their ability to repeat as division champions this year. And while things look daunting for 2019, I am nothing if not a positive thinker, and it is in that spirit that I offer this shining ray of hope:
The 2031 Philadelphia Phillies are a complete and utter mess.
Sure, they may end up with a couple of World Series trophies to show for it along the way, but is that really worth the financial commitment that it took to land an elite outfielder in Bryce Harper? We all know that the key to managing a good baseball team is maintaining financial flexibility, and the Phillies are really mortgaging their long-term future, and for what? To be competitive for the next decade? No thanks. We know all too well that the chickens will come to roost, and I for one take great joy in knowing that when my first grader is a freshman in college, he won’t have to worry about the Phillies ruining his day.
“Why do you think they’re in trouble?” you say? Well let’s look at their payroll breakdown for 2031. According to Fangraphs, here are the Phillies financial commitments for the 2031 season:
Bryce Harper, $22 million
That’s not very financially flexible. Who could possibly justify committing so much money to a player approaching age 39? The Phillies are going to have to do some serious advance scouting now in order to prepare for this season of reckoning, and I’m not sure they have the organizational infrastructure to do so. They will have to get their scouts out to every t-ball team and elementary school in the country in order to bring forth a crop of young and inexpensive players to support an aging Harper in 2031, and given that the scouting duties of a major league team are already spread thin, this is an almost insurmountable task for them.
Here he is .. your new #phillies manager Gabe Kapler. If his analytics don’t work as a manager maybe he can be a model for leopard thongs. pic.twitter.com/FtvKSIcy14
— Howard Eskin (@howardeskin) October 30, 2017
Can this guy coexist with Bryce Harper for 13 years? I think not.
Now, let’s contrast this with the plan for the Atlanta Braves. Again, looking at Fangraphs, here are the financial obligations for the 2031 season:
Look at that beautiful financial flexibility. Nary a Bruce Sutter to be found. As you can see, this is a much more economically liquid outlook for the Braves in 2031, and when you consider that they will have almost certainly completed Phase XIX of The Battery by this point, there are going to be even more revenue streams from which to draw in order to make a modest move for a free agent, and maybe even re-sign Nick Markakis to his thirteenth consecutive one-year contract. Think about how much flexibility the team will have knowing that they’ll have a full-scale roller coaster on top of the Orange parking garage bringing in additional revenue. This will be a team built for success, while the Phillies will be hamstrung by bad contracts and poor financial planning. Phillies fans will be left only to dry their tears with their division championship banners, and I for one cannot wait.
So never fear, Braves fans. In just twelve short years, our long regional nightmare will be over, and we can take great joy in knowing that the 2030s for the Phillies are pretty much doomed. Think of all the debt that the Braves would’ve paid off by then. We will be poised to make our big move.