FanPost

2018-2019 Free Agent Market and a 2021 Strike




Machado to the White Sox at 7 years/$175 million. A huge sum of money. But well short of many 10/$300 or higher (13/$390) projections from earlier in the season.

$30 million AAV seems like a lot in some ways. With TV contracts, etc., it doesn't in others. Machado is in his prime, has potentially several years of "prime" left, and even on the back end of a lengthy contract will only be 33-35, decent especially for an American League team with a DH. By dollars per WAR even a $30 million AAV might be a steal for several years of the contract. On the other hand, Machado isn't "Johnny Hustle," kicked a player in the playoffs, and may not be the best clubhouse guy.

Lets say he winds up with 8/$224 for an AAV of $28 million. Not exactly Giancarlo Stanton money but a higher AAV.

Harper also should get over $200 million.

Big money all around in baseball? Or collusion by the owners that will lead to a strike in 2021?

I'll show my bias: Teams are getting smarter. They know the statistics, they know long contracts for big money become albatrosses in the final years. It seems like fans are okay with that, because they know it will help their teams in the long run. But will fans feel the same way if a work stoppage comes?

I love baseball and I love that teams are getting smarter about how they should spend their money, but paying for future value is tough. Yet, the players certainly do seem to have a grievance: Machado could easily say he is severely underpaid based on prior performance (where his numbers could mean $40 million per is closer to his actual "value.")

So is a 2021 strike inevitable? Maybe. MLB contracts are already guaranteed, and collusion is hard to prove.

But part of the issue is correctable. By 2021, the luxury tax threshold will jump to $210 million. Maybe the 2021 CBA raises it even more. Maybe the DH coming to NL creates enough new spots that teams are more willing to pay an OF big money for over more years knowing they have a backup "position" if need be.

I like the NL right now, with its bullpen strategies and pinch hitters, but I'm afraid its coming, and given the choice between no baseball and DH baseball, I guess I'll take DH baseball.

Expansion of league rosters from 25 to 28 or so might not help the top players, but will raise the salary of the bench players. And as more and more pitchers are used and specialized, it may be necessary. If the rosters do grow then the luxury tax will definitely have to increase with it. I'm thinking a luxury tax salary of around $230-$240. Lowering the penalties would also help.

Expansion of the league itself would also create more positions. The league has had an influx of young talent and with international players becoming more and more integrated into the league (especially with changes to the posting system) I think the league can handle it. Grow to 32 teams (say Montreal/Portland, or maybe Nashville/Charlotte), switch to a 154 game season and allow for more off days, and follow the NFL postseason format (with 3/5/7 game series of some sort) and you have a reasonable set up).

I could also see performance incentives becoming much more standard. Say Machado does sign for that 8/$224. Add in incentives for say plate appearances (health related), number of home runs, number of hits, making the playoffs, etc. and all of sudden that could be 8/$280. That's an AAV of $35 million, i.e, if he plays like what he is worth, he gets more money. Have mutual options where the teams side automatically vests based on incentives.

This is a "fan" post and I'm certainly thinking like a fan. But I would think the teams would be happy that they could 1) spend on players without hitting the tax penalty, 2) have backup positions for when the players start aging in the field, and 3) can be smart about the "guaranteed" part of the contract while still pay players well. Players (and the union) should be happy that salaries can once again rise. And fans can still see their teams be smart with their money.

A strike may be inevitable: I'm sure there are 100 different factors I'm not considering here. But there do seem to be solutions. And hopefully we see baseball played in 2020 and 2021 without stoppages. Because, while we all know baseball is a business, we love the game.

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Battery Power.