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Breaking down Atlanta’s playoff odds with 50 games remaining

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The stretch run is here.

Atlanta Braves v New York Mets Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Through 112 games, the Atlanta Braves appear to be in great shape. Brian Snitker’s team sits with a 62-50 record and, despite strong play from the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta trails by only one game in the NL East while holding a solid position in the NL Wild Card race.

Periodically throughout the 2018 campaign, we have checked in with five statistical projection systems to see how they evaluate the Braves through the prism of making the postseason. With 50 games remaining, we are back to do just that and, yes, FanGraphs is still too low on Atlanta.

FiveThirtyEight - 57 percent

The Braves and Phillies are, fittingly, side-by-side in this model, and Philadelphia has only the slightest of edges. Unlike the other systems displayed here, FiveThirtyEight (publicly) updates after every result of every game so, if you’re someone that loves a good roller coaster, bookmarking this particular page might be an adrenaline rush on an hourly basis over the next several weeks.

TeamRankings - 57.6 percent

This isn’t the only system that views the Braves as the superior team to the Phillies, as that is actually a common theme. However, Atlanta’s current deficit and more difficult schedule swing the balance, even if the Braves are still seen as more likely to make the playoffs than not at this juncture.

Baseball Prospectus - 60.8 percent

Baseball Prospectus likes the Braves, especially in one particular area. Atlanta is given a 4.3% chance to win the World Series in this model and, while it may not seem like much, it is pretty easily the best chance allotted by any of the numbers included here. There is a “so you’re telling me there’s a chance...” vibe to this team and this illustrates it.

NumberFire - 61.9 percent

No system outright projects the Braves to win the NL East but NumberFire comes the closest. Atlanta has a 41.7% chance to claim division glory (against 47.5% for Philadelphia) and, as you can see above, this is the rosiest of all playoff percentages.

FanGraphs - 41.3 percent

Throughout the season, FanGraphs has been (very) low on the Braves and that continues. The pre-season evaluation is almost certainly the centerpiece of this system’s skepticism and, after Thursday afternoon’s loss, Atlanta only barely leads Washington in this particular model. The Braves, of course, have a 4.5-game cushion over the Nationals but one site’s projection has to be the most pessimistic and we found it.

Because these numbers change, albeit slightly, on a daily basis, there is a lot of volatility but, as of the morning of Aug. 10, the Braves seem to be in a favorable position. Stay tuned.