FanPost

The Curious Case of Sam Freeman

If I had to pick a pitcher from the Braves’ relief core that best summarizes their struggles in the 2018 campaign, it would be Sam Freeman. After his 2017 season where he posted a 2.55 ERA in 60 innings, he was poised once again to be a big contributor to the bullpen. However, a handful of meltdowns this year, most recently against the Reds, has left Braves’ fans cringing when he emerges from the bullpen gates this year. So what changed?

Well, depending on where you look on his stat sheet, not very much. He’s still posting above average ground ball rates. He’s actually striking guys out at a slightly higher rate than last year, climbing from 23% to 25.5%. That’s good! His walk rate this year has climbed by about the same amount, moving from 10.5% to an unlucky 13%. That’s not ideal, but it isn’t avert-your-eyes and demote him to Mississippi bad. And despite maintaining roughly the same FIP as last year (from 3.34 to 3.58), his ERA has more than doubled. What gives?

I think the most notable thing, and one that certainly passes the eye test, is that he turns into a pumpkin with runners on base. When Freeman pitches with the bases empty, he’s Clayton Kershaw, striking out 33% of batters he faces and walks only 7%. With RISP, his K% craters to 12% and his walk rate jumps to a Mauricio Cabrera-like 17%. To cap it off, he’s running a strand rate of 58%, which if you’re keeping score at home means that if a batter reaches at all against Freeman, flip a coin to see if he crosses home plate. What you’re left with is a guy who 1) Isn’t cleaning up his own messes when he makes them and 2) Makes matters worse when he comes in to clean up someone else’s.

All is not lost for Freeman however. The truth of the matter is that he’s probably not as good as last year’s Sam Freeman, and at least according to Steamer’s rest-of-season projections, he won’t be as bad as first-half 2018 Sam Freeman. What he obviously is not is a shutdown high-leverage reliever, but he doesn’t have to be to be a contributor. But by the numbers, bringing him in with runners on late in tight games is not a recipe for success.

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