With two weeks left until the Braves go on the clock in the 2018 MLB Draft, many names have been floating around, but one that has consistently been linked to Atlanta has been Arizona prep third baseman Nolan Gorman. Notably, both Keith Law and Jim Callis have linked the Braves to Gorman with Law even stating he hasn’t heard much in that way of alternatives (link to Law and Callis). Gorman has drawn attention for his raw power which among the best if not the best in the class, but questions surround most every other aspect of his game.
The Good
Power -Gorman has it in spades. He can put a ball out to any part of the field without even making particularly good contact, and has had grades as high as 70 thrown on his raw power. The power doesn’t come with a particularly nasty swing, as he is quick and compact through the zone and the power comes easily to him. There are holes in his swing, I mean he wouldn’t be a prospect if there wasn’t, but there isn’t much you’ll have to work through with Gorman to get him to start tapping into power in game. Gorman is physically filled out and isn’t going to grow into any more power, but he doesn’t need to because he’s got power to spare.
Gorman has great bat speed through the zone and has demonstrated an ability to turn on velocity, including a massive home run at the Perfect Game All American classic on a 96 mph fastball. There are many holes that can be fixed, but being consistently beat by inside velocity isn’t really one of them and his not having that problem is a very positive sign.
The Bad
Gorman is going to strike out a fair bit at the next level, and there just isn’t any way around that. At this stage in his career, Gorman has too many problems at the plate to be a high average guy, and he likely never will get there. The fixable problems make up a majority of the negatives for Gorman. Like most young power hitters, he can get home run happy and over swing, a problem that will fix itself with maturity. Pitch recognition and the ability to hit offspeed pitching is another area of Gorman’s game that isn’t up to professional standards yet, and if they were he would be a candidate to go top 5 very easily. Patience is something Gorman is going to have to learn if he is to survive at the next level, because he probably isn’t going to hit for a high average and to compensate for that he’ll need to show the ability to get on base via walks.
He also needs to be selective enough to drive more hitter-friendly pitches and tap into his power. As for the less fixable problems, Gorman doesn’t show much athleticism in either his defensive actions or at the plate, and can get stiff in the upper body in his swing somewhat limiting his ability to adjust and cover the zone. That’s not necessarily a problem that can’t be counteracted or even potentially remedied, but it’s also not one you like to see from a player that young as athleticism isn’t likely to increase with age. That said, Gorman is already filled out physically, and may not see as much of a drop off in athleticism as you would see from players with a similar profile that are of a lankier build. Defensively, Gorman’s ceiling is to be an average third baseman. He is a below average runner, his arm is fringe average for the position, and his instincts can be a bit off and on. It’s my opinion that he’s 50/50 to stick at third base, but even if he has to move off of the hot corner and over to first base he has the bat to fit there.
That is a lot of negative to talk about, but with high school players that’s very often going to be the case. There is a lot that can go wrong for a player this far off, but for one to show a carrying tool as explosive as Gorman’s power there is going to be significant attention. If he’s even a 45 hitter he’s a starter caliber major league baseball player, and that really does give him quite a margin of error to work with. I’m confident Gorman can hit enough to play in Atlanta, but I don’t know if I’m quite ready to say he’ll be a special player. Would I draft Nolan Gorman? Yes and no. There are certainly players in this draft that I prefer to Gorman, namely on the pitching side with players like Ethan Hankins and Carter Stewart who have also been linked to the Braves. If the Braves drafted Gorman, I’m not sure I would complain too much. When a player demonstrates an ability to consistently put baseballs over the fence he is worth the attention 9 times out of 10, and in an age where the home run is growing in value and strikeouts are becoming less of a taboo he is coming up at the right time.
Many of Gorman’s approach problems are things that I feel will be fixed with maturity and experience, and pitchers are not going to want to throw him strikes when they know just how far he can hit mistakes they make. For comps, Miguel Sano and Pedro Alvarez are reasonable ones for his ceiling, though there is certainly a chance he hits for more average and plays better defense than either of those players. An early career Alvarez or Sano is no small addition to a lineup, and the Braves should be happy with getting that sort of result from any prospect. Gorman is a player I am confident will destroy mistake fastballs, and his ultimate ceiling with revolve around just how much of everything else he’ll manage to hit. If there was more looseness and athleticism in his swing, I would be all in on Gorman. He showed that more as a junior and there is a chance he could regain that with a major league conditioning program (see Austin Riley for a prime example), but that’s something that is impossible to predict without knowing the makeup of a player in a way that we simply can’t know. The Braves scouts will know these things about Gorman, and if they do select him then you have to assume they have confidence in him that he will put in the work to get the job done.