Before any Major League Baseball season, it is fun to comb through various outlets with an eye toward evaluating projects for each and every team. As usual, some were higher on the Atlanta Braves than others when predicting what would take place during the 2018 campaign but, with Las Vegas pegging a win total in the mid-70’s and most analytical systems following suit, overall expectations were muted, at least to some degree.
The Braves approach Memorial Day weekend in a fantastic spot,however, as Atlanta holds the best winning percentage (.609) in the National League. In addition, the team displays the NL’s second-best run differential, and it isn’t as if the team has been operating solely with smoke and mirrors. Still, not everyone is buying it (at least to this extent) and the projection systems have been slow to adapt.
With that as the backdrop, let’s take a glance at that a few high-profile projection systems see as of the morning of May 22 when it comes to Atlanta’s playoff chances.
The ESPN-turned-ABC News projection system is actually the highest of the five we’ll be evaluating and, given that it gives Atlanta a less than 50-50 chance at the playoffs, it foreshadows what is to come. Of course, it is worth noting that Nate Silver’s bunch began the 2018 season projecting a 15 percent chance for the Braves and, actually, a jump of that magnitude within two months is relatively significant.
Though preseason rankings are unavailable here, a 38.4 percent clip doesn’t seem entirely unreasonable. NL teams with more than a 50 percent chance include the Cubs, Nationals, D-Backs, Cardinals and Brewers, with even the Dodgers (and their 20-27 record) facing better odds than the Braves.
Baseball Prospectus - 31.4 percent
Obviously, it makes complete sense that Atlanta’s projections have improved, especially given the performance of youngsters (Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuña, Sean Newcomb, etc.) but this is another big jump. The good folks at BP gave the Braves a 14.6 percent chance before the season began and, at the moment, they are projecting an 84-win season.
As you can see, things are getting more dire and NumberFire just doesn’t believe. It is worth noting that they also project an 84-season for the Braves but that wouldn’t be enough, with the Dodgers (ahem) still seen as the more likely playoff option.
Finally, we reach the trusty folks at FanGraphs. In some ways, they’ve turned the corner sharply, with a preseason view of only 3.2 percent. Still, FanGraphs sees eight National League teams as more likely to reach the postseason and it feels safe to state on the record that Braves fans won’t like this evaluation.
There are many reasons that projections would want to take their time with the Braves, even as the hot start feels more real by the day. Atlanta’s pitching is far from worry-free, Nick Markakis may not finish with a 153 wRC+, Ozzie Albies may not be an 8-win player at age 21 and so on. Still, this is a reminder that the numbers haven’t quite caught up to just how enjoyable (and good) this team has been through almost two months of action and you might be able to talk a non-Braves friend into an advantageous rest-of-season wager as a result.