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Fanpost Friday: What’s right with Julio Teheran?

It could be anything... but it’s probably something specific

Atlanta Braves v Miami Marlins Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Hello, friends. Let’s try something a little different this time. (Also let’s try to have me remember to lock the comments before the post goes up.) Past Fanpost Fridays have been fairly simple in basic execution. This one isn’t the same. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t. Vote with your feet... or I guess with your fingers, since typing with your feet seems hard.

(Oh, and just because the post goes up on Fanpost Friday, it doesn’t mean your post needs to go up on Friday. This is all just food for thought, or some weird kind of food that asks you to respond back to it. Whenever works...)

Julio Teheran has had somewhat of a turnaround early on this season. His first two starts were quite bad. His next two starts were pretty good. His last three starts, excluding a three-inning attempt where he was injured, have been downright nasty. My basic question is: why?

Now, you could just say, “Because he is friends with Anibal Sanchez” and leave it at that. But that’s not satisfying. You know what’s satisfying? Evidence. So, I’d love to hear your thoughts as to what’s changed — but in addition to your thoughts, I’d love to see your evidence.

Here are some things to get you started:

  • Fangraphs’ Game Logs page for Julio Teheran. You can use the date field to restrict date ranges, and stats will automatically be summed, totaled, or averaged for you as relevant. You can also use the “tabs” (Dashboard is selected by default) to scroll through all the available stats, including a bunch of pitch-specific information.
  • Baseball Savant’s Statcast search has somewhat of a learning curve, but gives you a wealth of data for the last few years. For example, this is a query showing that Teheran’s aggregate exit velocity allowed hasn’t really changed between 2015 and now, though it was somewhat lower in 2017 (and has shot back up again). That query isn’t an answer to the question in and of itself, but digging just a bit deeper may turn up something interesting. Maybe.
  • Brooks Baseball is another fantastic resource. There’s a lot of information there, on both tables and graphs, for each pitcher and hitter. It’s just a matter of clicking through everything and seeing what makes sense.

Of course, the big challenge here is what date is used for the cutoff for some kind of transformation. Was it immediately after Teheran’s first two starts? Or is it only his most recent four or five? Something to consider when looking for patterns, or discontinuities. And, if you spend some time, and can’t find any smoking gun — that’s a finding in and of itself. Make sure to tell us about it, but tell us about what hasn’t changed, and what you think that means for Teheran going forward.