Previewing the roster ahead of Spring Training has not been that hard, until now. But, the Braves will prepare to take the field in Grapefruit League action with no real resolution about their bullpen. The candidates consist of some returning names and a lot of new or pseudo-new faces; the fact that the glut of starters may lead to relief work for some further crowds and complicates the bullpen picture.
Projecting relief performance is always dicey, and that goes double for actually figuring out which relievers will get the opportunity to pitch meaningful innings. Spring Training may not sort out much on the Atlanta Braves 2018 roster, but it will probably go a long way towards providing some clarity about which guys will head to Atlanta when the Grapefruit League ends.
The Likely/Locks
Of the 19 relievers the Braves used in 2017, Arodys Vizcaino and Sam Freeman had the best performance. Both were signed one-year deals avoiding arbitration, and figure to get the lion’s share of high leverage opportunities in 2018.
Arodys Vizcaino started last season in a setup role, but transitioned to ninth-inning duties as Jim Johnson began to implode over the summer. He finished the year with 14 saves and 64 strikeouts in 57 and 1⁄3 innings, posting a 2.83 ERA that suggests he got a bit lucky on balls in play and balls (not) leaving the yard relative to his 3.72 FIP and 4.21 xFIP. He was very reliable on a bad relief staff last season, lowering his team’s chance to win in only six of his 62 appearances. Unless injury (or a last-minute trade?) strikes, count on him to be there at the back end of Atlanta’s 2018 bullpen.
Sam Freeman took a different path to last year’s roster than Vizcaino, but ended up with a similar positive contribution. Whereas Vizcaino was on his second Braves stint and his third consecutive year with the team, Freeman was a Spring Training invitee that didn’t make the Opening Day roster, and was only promoted in early May. Despite the late start, he tossed 60 innings of 2.55 ERA / 3.34 FIP / 3.97 xFIP ball across 58 appearances, leveraging a sky high 58.5 percent groundball rate to his advantage. Freeman’s platoon splits aren’t as heavy as those for other relievers, but may still lead to him getting situational use rather than a specific late-inning role, but at this point, there’s no reason to assume he won’t play a major part in the bullpen picture, at least for the start of the 2018 season.
A.J. Minter is another likely lock for the bullpen, so long as he can remain healthy. Minter managed only 59 professional innings across two seasons and four minor league levels before getting the call to the majors last August, but made his presence felt by posting a procession of silly video-game numbers: 15.6 K/9, 0.96 FIP, 1.63 xFIP, 23 FIP-, 38 xFIP-. He struck out over 43 percent of the batters he faced, while walking just three percent. Among all relievers with 10 or more innings last year, only Craig Kimbrel had a higher strikeout rate, only six had lower walk rates, and no one but Kimbrel beat Minter on K%-BB% or park/league-adjusted FIP/xFIP. If Minter’s healthy, expect a lot more high-leverage batter-pulverizing from him — but the question is whether he can stay on the mound. If not, the Braves have plenty of other options to absorb relief innings.
Daniel Winkler is a bit like a mini-right-handed Minter, but with even more stipulations to his name. The main one is that Winkler’s Rule 5 roster restrictions have still not yet expired, meaning that, if he’s healthy, he will almost certainly be on the roster. (The Braves haven’t invested all this time and effort into him just to mail him back to the Rockies.) Still, Winkler has only managed to pitch about 18 major league innings over the last three seasons. When he has taken the hill, though, he’s been quite good, with a 2.95 ERA, 3.97 FIP, and 3.35 xFIP. While he’s had some command issues and a high walk rate, he’s also struck out nearly 35 percent of the batters he’s faced, which is intriguing.
The Possibles
New GM Alex Anthopoulos has not done much this offseason, but he has assembled a variety of options to choose from to fill out his bullpen. These join some holdovers in what’s likely to create a fairly healthy competition for roster spots during March.
Jose Ramirez got a lot of work in Atlanta bullpens over the last two years, suggesting that he may have an inside track on a relief spot for 2018. While this certainly could be the case, the fact that he hasn’t been particularly good might call this into question. A hard-throwing righty with control problems (what a surprise for a modern day bullpen, right?), Ramirez posted good results while avoiding getting bitten by the home run ball in 2016, and kept runs off the board courtesy of a very low .226 BABIP-against last season. However, his career 4.89 FIP and 5.42 xFIP aren’t favorable, and using leverage-weighted FIP, he was actually below replacement last season. There’s probably no harm in letting Ramirez grab a middle relief spot for the start of 2018, but the Braves may want to move on if he’s still walking the park without striking out enough players to compensate.
Rex Brothers was very good against lefties, and very not-good against righties in limited action last year after sitting out the 2016 season. The Braves re-signed Brothers to a split contract, suggesting they may see something there beyond a generic bullpen spot candidate. Brothers was a solid relief option for the Rockies for three seasons before rapidly collapsing during the 2014 season. If he can climb back to that type of performance, he should have a bullpen spot sewn up.
Mauricio Cabrera has always been a bit of a fun guy to think about because of his extreme velocity, and he pitched pretty well in 2016 for the Braves (2.82 ERA, 3.04 FIP, and a 4.61 xFIP resulting from no one tagging him from a homer all year). However, he spent all of 2017 toiling in the minors with no success, posting the worst FIP and xFIP- marks in his career between AA and AAA. He is out of options, so if the Braves want to retain him, they may need to roster him. But if they think there’s nothing there beyond his arm, out of the organization he’s likely to go.
Anyelo Gomez was the Braves’ most recent Rule 5 selection, coming over from the Yankees. While the Braves have returned Rule 5 selections recently, Gomez will probably get a long look in camp as a result. Gomez’ 2017 was split across A-, High-A, and AA-ball, where he consistently put up ERAs, FIPs, and xFIPs below 3.00.
Luke Jackson was already DFAed and outrighted to the minors by the Braves this offseason, but still received an invitation to Spring Training. Jackson gave the Braves 50 innings of long-ish, replacement-level relief in 2017, and represents an unexciting option that still might make the roster if the Braves feel like they have no better options.
Josh Ravin was a pickup by Anthopoulos from his former team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, for cash considerations back in November. Ravin has had an up-and-down career with a lot of injuries and a PED suspension, but has pitched decently at AAA when he’s been healthy. He’s had a lot less success across 35 and 2⁄3 major league innings (5.05 ERA, 5.20 FIP, 4.01 xFIP), but as he remains out of options, he may have a leg up against other players, at least so the Braves can evaluate what they have in him in a major league setting.
Chase Whitley was another Anthopoulos pickup, this time from the Rays. Whitley has a fair bit of starting experience and may also vie for a rotation spot in the spring, but seems unlikely to get one given how stuffed the rotation is with candidates already. Whitley has pitched decently in the majors (4.48 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 4.24 xFIP, with all of that coming in the AL East), and gave the Rays 57 innings of long-ish relief last year. More of a swingman type than a hard-throwing high-leverage arm, Whitley has an intriguing rising fastball that could be an asset if he can refine his overall game. But, given that the Braves may have long relief sewn up if they choose to use some of their excess starters in the bullpen, it’s not entirely clear whether Whitley will fit into the pitching corps as constructed.
The Others
Jacob Lindgren, signed to a deal in December 2016, should be healthy enough to vie for a bullpen spot. He had good minor league relief numbers once upon a time, but his health and ability to pitch following a long layoff and recovery from Tommy John Surgery are open questions.
Akeel Morris, acquired from the Mets in 2016, had some pretty good relief numbers across AA and AAA, but seemingly didn’t get a fair shake from the Braves, who weren’t particularly interested in using him at the major league level despite a shaky bullpen throughout all of last year. Morris does have serious walk issues, but they haven’t hampered his minor league success all too much, so his lack of usage has stuck out as a bit strange to many Braves fans. We’ll find out if the reticence towards giving him major league innings was something specific to the old regime or not as the 2018 season progresses.
Anthopoulos also acquired Shane Carle this offseason, who has served in a swingman role for the Rockies’ AAA affiliate over the last two seasons. It seemed like a depth move at the time,
Jesse Biddle, Jason Hursh, Adam McCreery, and Ricardo Sanchez are all on the 40-man. Biddle and Hursh may get a shot at a bullpen spot, but are likely underdogs relative to the other names listed in this post. McCreery and Sanchez were added to the 40-man to avoid Rule 5 draft eligibility; Sanchez might see very limited time if the Braves try to conserve 40-man action later in the year (but probably won’t); McCreery seems like he could be fast-tracked to the majors given his 40-man roster status, but hasn’t yet pitched above High-A despite being 25 years of age.
Josh Graham, Phil Pfeifer, and Miguel Socolovich are three non-roster invites to spring training. Graham appears at the backend of some Top 30 lists of Braves prospects, and spent last year in High-A and AA as a reliever. Pfeifer pitched well for the Braves in AA last year, but struggled upon promotion to AAA. Socolovich has over 80 career major league innings across three major league teams; the Braves are his seventh organization in twelve professional seasons. He may represent a Luke Jackson-esque option.
Of course, any starters that don’t win the rotation lottery may also get a chance to work out of the bullpen if they don’t make the rotation. Max Fried, Lucas Sims, and Matt Wisler all worked out of the bullpen in some capacity last year; Aaron Blair may join their ranks this season.
Spring Training Outlook
The bullpen battle figures to be wide-ranging, and complicated by fallout from any decisions that the Braves make (or don’t make) about how their rotation will shake out. Vizcaino, Freeman, and Minter seem like very good bets to open the season in high-leverage relief roles if they stay healthy; Winkler will likely join them. Beyond that, the field opens up quite a bit: the Braves can opt to continue with Brothers, Ramirez or Jackson given their experience, or prioritize some of the recent Anthopoulos-focused acquisitions such as Ravin, Whitley, or Rule 5 pick Anyelo Gomez.