Since beginning to rebuild the club from scratch in 2014 the Atlanta Braves have had their fair share of talented prospects come up and make their MLB debuts in Atlanta. Of these players the Braves haven’t necessarily had a prospect come up and break out into All-Star form right away and fans haven’t always been happy about that. It isn’t the fan’s fault either for having high expectations, it is the level of hype that these young guys are getting while still in the minor leagues that is to blame. So maybe it’s time that we temper expectations, or at least calm some fears about these young players not becoming All-Star caliber players right away.
Let’s begin in the season that saw 16 MLB debuts for the Braves in 2015. Of those 16 debuts in 2015 only 4 players were ranked within the Braves Top 30 prospects list with the highest touted prospects being left hander Manny Banuelos and the right-handed Matt Wisler. Unfortunately, Banuelos ended up getting hurt after just 6 starts and hasn’t seen the Major Leagues since.
As for Matt Wisler, in his rookie campaign, he posted a 4.71 ERA to go along with a K/9 of 5.84 in 109 innings pitched which is pretty average for a rookie. Wisler’s rookie season was full of ups and downs as he was, at one point, moved to the bullpen to help regain form but finished the year very strong posting a 2.33 ERA over his final 5 starts including a near complete game shutout in his final game of the season. Matt was able to carry his success from late in 2015 to the first 10 games of 2016 that saw him post a 3.16 ERA before completely melting down in his next 10 games and receiving a demotion to AAA Gwinnett to try to refocus. Wisler was called back up later in the season and looked to be back on the right track before a strained oblique effectively ended his season. In 2017 Wisler spent most of his season recovering in Gwinnett before finally getting a chance to come back to the Major League club where he again pitched out of the bullpen as the Braves tried to ease Wisler back in. He had real success in Gwinnett with a 3.56 ERA but was clearly not completely healthy in his stint back in the MLB as his ERA steadily slid to 8.35 by the end of the season.
The biggest thing for Wisler has been just simply getting an opportunity to get a rhythm going as he has shown extended stretches of being a quality pitcher and coming into just his fourth MLB season will most likely get plenty of chances to prove himself. While there are no expectations for Wisler to be a Major League starter do not write him off because his failures and successes go deeper than general statistics. 2015 is a prime example of how multiple players may be making their big-league debuts that just don’t work out right away and take a lot more time to develop than expected.
Moving on to the 2016 season, the Braves continued to roll out more of their minor league prospects on the big-league stage. 13 more players debuted in 2016 with Dansby Swanson headlining the class that included the likes of former big-name prospects Aaron Blair, Mauricio Cabrera, and Rio Ruiz. 2016 was the first true wave of top prospects seeing time in Atlanta that fans had massive expectations for.
While its important to remember that 2016 was just two short years ago it is also easy to see why Braves fans had such high expectations for Dansby Swanson. For one, he was the hometown guy and a former number one overall pick no less to go along with the fact that he’d also drawn comparisons to future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter and other elite level shortstops. In short (no pun intended), Braves fans were already being set up to be let down. As Swanson entered the Major Leagues in 2016 so came with him the expectation of instantly being a Derek Jeter caliber player, and Swanson played well posting a .302/.361/.442 slash line, but even so it still seemed as if fans were slightly disappointed despite such a fantastic opening stretch. It didn’t help that Major League Baseball was doing everything they could to turn him into the new face of the Braves and in 2017 it didn’t take long for Swanson to turn from hero to zero in the fanbase. Swanson struggled big time for the first time in his MLB and MiLB career early in the season with a measly .185 batting average through May. Even after, as he worked to improve his ability to lay off sliders, Swanson still struggled posting a wRC+ of just 66 for 2017 and leaving Braves fans to actually debate if Johan Camargo is a better long-term option at shortstop.
What is important to realize with Dansby is that 2017 was still technically his rookie season and with under 700 career plate appearances (struggles included) he’s still produced a collective positive fWAR of 0.9 in his short career. After just turning 24 years old there is still time for Swanson to return to the form that gave cause for him to be the number one overall selection in the 2015 MLB Draft and Braves fans should still be excited about having him. In 2016, of all the prospects to make their debuts for the Braves, it was Swanson who held the most unfair expectations with being compared to a Hall of Fame player like Derek Jeter before even getting his own locker in the clubhouse.
2017’s class of prospects to come onto the scene in Atlanta was the most star-studded class yet and also was the most hyped group of players to date. Of last year’s rookies fans finally saw the big prospect additions made after the Braves many trades following 2014 make their way into the Major Leagues in the form of Sean Newcomb, A.J. Minter, Luiz Gohara, and Max Fried along with the Braves number one prospect Ozzie Albies. Of these prospects to make debuts in 2017 a total of six(!) were highly touted enough to be ranked in the Braves Top 30 Prospects list.
Sean Newcomb made his debut early on in the season after just 11 starts for AAA Gwinnett. Newcomb was ranked as the 6th best prospect in the Braves minor league system and for good reason posting season after season of sub 3 ERAs and gaudy K/9 averages in the 10-11 range. However, upon arriving in Atlanta it was clear right away that Newcomb’s command was going to be an issue and was reflected in his ERA of 4.32 which, will still good for a rookie, was higher than the enormous expectations placed on Newcomb. Even as Newcomb posted a WAR of 1.3 in just 100 innings pitched it was almost as if fans were still unhappy and had already come to expect Newcomb to be the next Chris Sale before ever throwing a pitch in the Majors.
As the 2018 season approaches quickly it is terrifying to even imagine what the expectations will be with the rookie class knocking on the door to Atlanta. With Braves prospect Ronald Acuna already being compared to the likes of Andruw Jones and Mike Trout, any normal rookie season is going to feel like a failure. It is important to remain patient through this rebuilding process though because players don’t become elite overnight and a player’s potential is not always unlocked without struggle first. So, applaud the struggles and keep remembering that projections are just that, projections, not facts and that not all prospects turn into Major Leaguers. A player’s first two to three seasons normally carry no weight in projecting a player’s entire career outlook so make sure to temper expectations and enjoy watching the players blossom on baseball’s biggest stage.