FanPost

Chop On: Working on the Braves Offseason

With the Braves recently signing former MVP Josh Donaldson, and Brian McCann coming home, Atlanta's offseason is slowly taking shape as they look to improve upon an impressive 90-win season after winning 72 the previous year. The addition of Josh Donaldson was an excellent signing, as the Braves add another power hitter to pair with Freddie Freeman, and allows the Braves the ability to bolster their bench with Johan Camargo or Dansby Swanson, or even trade one of them for all-star closer Edwin Diaz. Furthermore, while the loss of Kurt Suzuki hurt, the addition of Brian McCann for $2 million will soften the blow, although the Braves will likely lean on Tyler Flowers more now with Suzuki gone. With that said, let’s take a look at the amount of salary that the Braves currently owe for 2019:

Player

2019 Salary

Freddie Freeman

$21,359,375

Julio Teheran

$11,166,668

Darren O’Day

$9,000,000

Ender Inciarte

$5,700,000

Tyler Flowers

$4,000,000

Josh Donaldson

$23,000,000

Brian McCann

$2,000,000

Total: $76,226,043

There’s still a ton of money to play around with after the Donaldson and McCann signings due to the fact that some of the Braves biggest contributors from 2018 have yet to hit arbitration, making them ultra-affordable. Next up is player arbitration/team control (note that these are not official, but a prediction from MLBTR):

Player (Arbitration/Team Control)

Potential 2019 Salary

Kevin Gausman (ARB)

$9,200,000

Mike Foltynewicz (ARB)

$5,500,000

Arodys Vizcaino (ARB)

$4,800,000

Adam Duvall (ARB)

$3,100,000

Daniel Winkler (ARB)

$1,600,000

Jonny Venters (ARB)

$1,500,000

Sam Freeman (ARB)

$1,500,000

Charlie Culberson (ARB)

$1,400,000

Ronald Acuña (TC)

$555,000

Ozzie Albies (TC)

$555,000

Jesse Biddle (TC)

$555,000

Johan Camargo (TC)

$555,000

Shane Carle (TC)

$555,000

A.J. Minter (TC)

$560,000

Sean Newcomb (TC)

$565,000

Dansby Swanson (TC)

$570,000

Touki Toussaint (TC)

$555,000

Total: $33,625,000

Grand total: $109,851,043

With a grand total of just about $110 million, the Braves are hovering around what they paid for their ball club last season, with $118 million on the books. I fully expect the Braves to pay out more money this season, but don’t expect the Braves to break the bank, and come close to the luxury tax threshold. For the sake of this offseason breakdown, I will work with a payroll of approximately $145 million, as Liberty Media Group. will likely not look to spend any more than that on the club this season. Seeing as though the Braves don’t have too many holes left to fill, and with about $35 million left in play, there’s room to work:

Player

Potential 2019 Salary

Bryce Harper

$310M/10yrs ($31M in 2019) (Opt-out in 2024)

Andrew McCutchen

$56M/4yrs ($14M in 2019)

Michael Brantley

$64M/4yrs ($16M in 2019)

Nick Markakis

$16M/2yrs ($8M in 2019)

Zach Britton

$31M/3yrs (Player option in 2021)

Brad Brach

$14.5M/2yrs ($7.25M in 2019)

Adam Ottavino

$42M/3yrs ($14M in 2019)

Craig Kimbrel

$85M/5yrs ($17M in 2019)

Bryce Harper: While the Braves likely won’t spend all that money on Bryce, it’s not impossible. Harper has a career .279/.388/.512 line, with an MVP season under his belt in 2015 (at just 22 years old). The problem with Harper is that his bat has been inconsistent since then, sandwiching a .319 BA between a .243 BA and .249 BA in the past three years. His power has never faded though, as he has averaged 29 home runs in the past three seasons. Signing Bryce would make the Braves one of the best offensive teams in the league, and provide even further protection beyond Freddie Freeman and Josh Donaldson to the lineup, which can only help young players like Acuña and Albies. Whether the Braves make such a strong financial commitment remains to be seen, but it would certainly make sense if they feel that they can afford Harper and their young players in the future. If not, then they are better off looking elsewhere.

Andrew McCutchen: Although much older than Harper (and of course not as impactful of a player), McCutchen would be a nice addition to a team playing in a hitters’ ballpark. In McCutchen’s time in San Francisco (a pitchers’ ballpark), he posted only 15 home runs in 130 games, and hit 5 home runs in 25 games for the Yankees (on pace for 32 home runs for the Yankees if he played all 162 for them), showing that he is still a quality offensive weapon. Overall, Andrew McCutchen played in 155 games, putting up a .255/.368/.424 slash with 20 home runs, 65 runs batted in, 83 runs scored and a 120 wRC+. That wRC+ was even higher for the Yankees, standing at 149 wRC+. This shows that if McCutchen is given protection, and is in a hitters’ ballpark, he could find success. SunTrust Park could be exactly what McCutchen needs.

Michael Brantley: Brantley is the model player for consistency, and isn’t too far removed from posting a huge 6.7 WAR in 2014, where he slashed .327/.385/.506 with 20 home runs and 97 runs batted in. In 2016 and 2017, Brantley was limited by injuries, but bounced back nicely in 2018 with his 3rd all-star appearance, posting a .309 BA with 17 home runs and 76 runs batted in. He’s a nice top of the batting order bat, and pairing him with Donaldson, Freeman, and company would mean a lot of runs scored. Even if he’s not an MVP candidate anymore, his consistent bat would go a long way for the Braves in 2019 and beyond.

Nick Markakis: If the Braves are looking to bide their time until #6 prospect (according to MLB.com) Cristian Pache is ready, then resigning Nick Markakis to a 2-year deal makes sense for now, as they do not have to make a huge financial investment if they believe that Pache is part of their future. Markakis is 35 years old now, but played all 162 games for the Braves last season, with 14 home runs and 93 runs batted in, logging his first ever all-star appearance in his 13-year career. Again, if they believe in Pache, and they aren’t too interested in any of the free agent outfielders then Markakis is a solid signing.

Adam Ottavino: Ottavino is coming off a big comeback year for the Colorado Rockies, posting a 2.43 ERA with 112 strikeouts across 77.2 innings pitched (13 SO/9) with 6 saves. His repertoire includes a big-biting slider and sinker, which could be tools for success in the NL East.

Craig Kimbrel: Winner of the 2018 World Series, Craig Kimbrel is likely to have a high price tag attached to him but is very well worth it. His ERA in his 3 years in Boston was a 2.44, and he finished with 108 saves. The real eye-opener is his stellar performance as a member of the Braves from 2010-2014, where he posted a 1.43 ERA with a 14.8 SO/9 (476 strikeouts) across 289 innings. Kimbrel would be an incredible pickup for the Braves, and I would not rule out a potential reunion.

Zach Britton: If the Braves miss out on Craig Kimbrel, then plan b should absolutely be Zach Britton. Originally a starter, Britton made the transition to the bullpen in 2014 for the Orioles, where he was nothing short of stellar, compiling a 1.65 ERA across 71 appearances with 37 saves, 62 strikeouts, and 23 walks. 2015-2016 was more of the same for Britton as he became one of the game’s elite relievers until he sustained injuries in 2017, and lost his control. 2018 was a solid year for Britton, but he struggled in a similar way to 2017, his command of the strike zone seemed lost, as he posted a 4.3 BB/9 compared to a 7.0 K/9 in 2017, and a 4.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 2018. If the Braves believe that Zach Britton is fully healthy (and if they miss out on Craig Kimbrel), then they should pursue Britton as their closer, or at the very least a very good bullpen piece. It should be a more pedestrian deal, with perhaps a player option attached, allowing Britton to opt out if he believes he can earn more on the market in 2021.

Brad Brach: If all goes wrong, then the Braves could circle back to Brad Brach. Brach posted a 1.52 ERA with a 3.12 FIP and a 1.310 WHIP in his short time with the Braves but clearly showed that he’s more useful against right-handers than against left-handers, as he had a 4.89 xFIP vs left-handers, and a 3.55 xFIP against righties. The true concern is the diminishing control and lack of strikeouts in 2018 (4.0 BB/9, 8.6 K/9), as it could be a sign of regression for Brach in the future. If Brach is able to return to the career .285 BABIP that he has allowed instead of the inflated .345 BABIP, then there is reason to believe that he can succeed for the Braves moving forward, but the Braves would be wise to give him a lesser deal than that of an Ottavino or even Britton.

In the most ideal situation, the Braves are able to walk away with Michael Brantley and Craig Kimbrel, making this a highly successful offseason. The team/salary situation would look like this:

BP: O’Day (R), Minter (L), Biddle (L), Winkler (R), Freeman (L), Carle (R), Vizcaino (R)

CL: Craig Kimbrel (R)

SP: Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Kevin Gausman, Julio Teheran, Toukki Toussaint

INF: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Johan Camargo, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Culberson

C: Tyler Flowers, Brian McCann

OF: Ronald Acuña, Ender Inciarte, Adam Duvall, Michael Brantley

Opening Day Salary: $142,851,043

If the Braves were unable to make the big moves happen and were still able to walk away with players like Andrew McCutchen and Zach Britton, it’s still a strong offseason from the Braves, and it’s enough to keep them in contention in the NL East. Here’s the roster breakdown and the opening day salary:

BP: O’Day (R), Minter (L), Biddle (L), Winkler (R), Freeman (L), Carle (R), Vizcaino (R)

CL: Zach Britton (L)

SP: Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Kevin Gausman, Julio Teheran, Toukki Toussaint

INF: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Johan Camargo, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Culberson

C: Tyler Flowers, Brian McCann

OF: Ronald Acuña, Ender Inciarte, Adam Duvall, Andrew McCutchen

Opening Day Salary: $134,184,376

In both situations, the Braves are below the proposed spending limit that they may be putting on themselves and are able to acquire the impact players they need in order to make a deep playoff run. If the Braves are unable to walk away with one of the major outfield free agents, Nick Markakis will still likely serve the Braves well for however long they need him. Either way, the Braves are likely to make only two more signings to complete the offseason, with the bullpen and corner outfield as areas of need.

Is there a player that you want the Braves to sign? Let me know down below and why.

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Battery Power.