Before the 2018 offseason swings into high gear, the Atlanta Braves will have several decisions to make with its current roster. While Atlanta will enter the offseason with significant money to work with, part of that will go towards arbitration raises for several of the team’s current players.
The Braves currently have 10 players who will be arbitration eligible. MLB Trade Rumors has released its annual projection of arbitration salaries for the upcoming offseason. Below is a snapshot of Atlanta’s players that are arbitration eligible along with a few thoughts on what the team will have to consider before bringing them back.
Kevin Gausman - $9.2MM
Kevin Gausman is due a big raise for the 2019 season. After making $5.6 million in 2018, MLB Trade Rumors projects him for a $9.2 million salary in 2019. He will be arbitration eligible again in 2020.
Gausman made 10 starts with the Braves after being acquired from the Baltimore Orioles at the trade deadline. He posted a 2.87 ERA (3.78 FIP) in 59.2 innings in an Atlanta uniform. He made 31 starts combined between Atlanta and Baltimore posting a 3.92 ERA (4.32 FIP) in 183.2 innings and was worth 2.2 fWAR on the season.
Mike Foltynewicz - $5.5 MM
Another player who will see a significant increase in salary next season is Mike Foltynewicz. Folty took a step forward in 2018 and is projected to garner a $5.5 million salary through arbitration. He will have two arbitration years remaining after this season and the Braves could explore a multi-year deal.
However it is important to remember that the two sides were only $100,000 apart before going to arbitration last offseason. Foltynewicz made $2.2 million in 2018 while making 31 starts and posting a 2.85 ERA (3.37 FIP) in 183 innings. He led all Atlanta pitchers in fWAR at 3.9.
Arodys Vizcaino - $4.8 MM
When healthy, Arodys Vizcaino performed well out of the Atlanta bullpen in 2018. He is projected for a raise from $3.4 million this past season to $4.8 million this season. He avoided arbitration last offseason by agreeing to a $3.4 million deal.
Vizcaino totaled 16 saves in 39 games while posting a 2.11 ERA (3.76 FIP) in 38.1 innings.
Adam Duvall - $3.1 MM
Adam Duvall is the first interesting arbitration-related decision that the team will have to make. On one hand, 2018 was the worst of his career as he hit just .195/.274/.365 with 15 home runs in 138 games between Cincinnati and Atlanta. However, he was even worse after coming to the Braves going just 7-for-53 in 33 games after the trade. On the other hand, he is 30 and is controllable for the next two seasons. In 2016 and 2017 he hit a combined 64 home runs in 307 games while playing solid outfield defense.
Duvall’s fate may hinge on what their plans are for the rest of the roster. He struggled in a part time role after the trade but if improving the team’s bench and depth is a priority, then it may be worth keeping him around to see if he can have a bounce back season. Still $3.1 million may be a lot for a guy that struggled the way Duvall did down the stretch.
Dan Winkler - $1.6 MM
Dan Winkler wasn’t on the Braves’ postseason roster but played a large part in getting them there. He seemed to run out of gas down the stretch after throwing a career-high 60.1 innings. Still he put up solid numbers and is projected for about a $1 million raise through arbitration.
Jonny Venters - $1.5 MM
Atlanta acquired Jonny Venters just before the trade deadline in a deal with Tampa Bay. He posted a 3.54 ERA (3.21 FIP) in 28 games for the Braves. While upgrading the bullpen will likely be a priority in the offseason, Venters could figure into the mix as a groundball/lefty specialist. Venters was happy to return to Atlanta so going to arbitration probably isn’t in the cards. The price tag isn’t high and the team could always elect to move on should a better option come along.
Sam Freeman - $1.5 MM
Sam Freeman’s 2018 was a tale of two halves. He posted a 5.06 ERA in 45 games before the All-Star Break. After a DL stint, he pitched well down the stretch with a 2.08 ERA in 18 games which included a much lighter workload. Despite the turnaround he was still left off of Atlanta’s postseason roster. Freeman made just over $1 million this season and any raise would be modest at best. Like Venters, if they elect to keep him around then it won’t be too painful to part ways down the road.
Charlie Culberson - $1.4 MM
Charlie Culberson turned in a career-best season for the Braves in 2018 and is in line for a raise for next season. He turned in career-highs across the board but figures to be a part of the team’s bench picture next season given his versatility. As a hometown player, there is likely mutual interest in finding a deal outside of arbitration.
Jose Ramirez - $700K
Jose Ramirez’s season consisted of just seven games before a shoulder injury sidelined him for the remainder of the season. The price tag wouldn’t be high but at this point the Braves may elect to move on due to having better options available.
Jacob Lindgren - $600K
Atlanta signed Jacob Lindgren prior to the 2017 season while he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. He has since underwent a second Tommy John procedure and at this point figures to be non-tendered. His return on a minor-league deal is possible as the Braves have invested in his rehabilitation up to this point.
Ivan’s arbitration estimates
The MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections are stunningly good, and are freakishly accurate. On a very persnickety basis, I remember them being a bit high last year, but we’re talking like, in terms of $200,000 or something like that. With that in mind, you should read these estimates as “generally this is a really good projection of what the player will make this year.” Just for the sake of additional information, here are what some alternative heuristics or rules of thumb suggest these players might earn in arbitration. Consider these more of an exercise in setting a range around the MLBTR estimates, rather than an attempt to establish a different point estimate that’s better in any way (because it isn’t).
- Kevin Gausman: $8.5M to $10.9M; MLBTR estimate = $9.2M
- Mike Foltynewicz: $3.6M to $6.6M; MLBTR estimate = $5.5M
- Arodys Vizcaino: $4.1M to $4.7M; MLBTR estimate = $4.8M (Vizcaino will likely be overpaid in arbitration relative to his peers — Arb4 with a too-low ERA and a lot of saves relative to his playing time)
- Adam Duvall: $3.1M; MLBTR estimate = $3.1M
- Dan Winkler: $1.0M to $1.8M; MLBTR estimate = $1.6M
- Jonny Venters: $1.3M to $1.8M; MLBTR estimate = $1.5M
- Sam Freeman: $1.3M to $1.8M; MLBTR estimate = $1.5M
- Charlie Culberson: $0.8M; MLBTR estimate = $1.4M
- Jose Ramirez: $0.6M; MLBTR estimate = $0.7M
- Jacob Lindgren: $0.6M; MLBTR estimate = $0.6M