Via one of the most bizarre injuries you will see on a baseball field, fate may have forced Atlanta’s hand when it comes to the situation concerning Dansby Swanson and Johan Camargo. With Camargo on the disabled list, Swanson is now back in the starting role as shortstop and when you consider the current situation that the Braves are in, that’s the way it should be for the time being.
It’s definitely a complicated situation, though. As far as expectations are concerned, Johan Camargo has had a fantastic season. Granted, that’s because he had extremely low expectations seeing as how he was a lightly-regarded prospect in a system that is loaded with big-time prospects. Still, a slash line of .292/.327/.454 with a 101 wRC+, .329 wOBA, and reliable defense at one of the most important positions on the field is nothing to sniff at. He’s been worth 1.1 fWAR this season, and there’s no question that he absolutely earned his playing time and current role in the lineup.
What makes this tricky is how this relates to the future of this rebuilding project. If the Braves were in a situation where the team appeared to be ahead of schedule and was actually in with a legit shot at making a postseason run, then I’m sure that everybody would have no qualms with seeing the Braves put Camargo out there on a regular basis. He’s played well whenever he’s been out there and if you’re going for the playoffs, you may as well put out the lineup that gives you the best chance to win.
However, the Braves are more-than-likely going to miss out on Postseason action this season, so the smart move at this point would be to give the prospects with a higher ceiling (who are ready for major league action) a shot at getting in some big league experience. That includes Swanson, who has absolutely been struggling but has still shown flashes of potential that lead you to believe that his ceiling as a player is higher than that of Camargo’s ceiling.
It’s nice that Swanson was able to get some reps in at the Triple-A level, but the only way that the Braves can know for sure that he can live up to his potential is by getting the reps in at the major league level and, for better or worse, taking his lumps. Swanson’s taken plenty of lumps and didn’t come close to reaching the Rookie of the Year hype that some of us (myself included) bestowed upon him on the offseason, but hey, it happens. Sometimes players go through some big-time struggles early in their career, and Swanson is the latest example of that.
Now, the counter argument could be that we’ve all got this wrong and that Johan Camargo could be one of those prospects who ends up being a legit major leaguer and that Dansby Swanson’s future is the one that’s limited by a low ceiling. However, if you take a look at FanGraphs’ Inside Edge Fielding stats, that’ll give you a hint as to who actually has the higher ceiling when it comes to the glove at least.
When it comes to “Routine,” “Likely,” and “Even” plays at shortstop, Camargo’s numbers are actually very, very good. He’s made 98.2 percent of the “Routine” plays and 100 percent of the “Likely” and “Even” plays. Meanwhile, Dansby Swanson has “only” made 96.2 percent of the “Routine” plays that have come his way and his numbers on the “Likely” plays dipped to 68 percent, and his numbers on “Even” plays go even lower to 60 percent.
Those numbers might seem a little concerning, but you also have to take into consideration the fact that, according to FanGraphs, Camargo has yet to actually receive a stern test at shortstop. He’s barely seen anything that would be considered “Unlikely,” “Remote,” or “Impossible” — to the point where he’s currently at 0 percent on those plays. Even though he’s barely seen them, it’s difficult to say that Camargo’s a better defender when Swanson has at least seen the “Unlikely” category more often and has a 31.3 percent completion rate on those plays and actually had a 66 percent completion rate on those plays over 313 innings in 2016. [All credit is due to Ivan the Great for being great and pointing this out]
This isn’t to say that Dansby Swanson deserves a Gold Glove right now, but it’s evidence that he’s definitely a plus defender out there and that his problems are ones that can be easily fixed. If he comes around at the plate, then that’s a solid baseball player right there and should be afforded every opportunity to make sure that he can get out of that funk and reach that potential. That wouldn’t happen if he was on the bench or just being used as a pinch runner, so it’s good that he’s back at the top level and being installed as the everyday shortstop once again.
Plus, with the arrival of prospects like Lucas Sims, Max Fried, and Ozzie Albies to the major league roster, it only makes sense that Swanson should be playing alongside them. The Braves have clearly decided that the future is now, so if you’re going to commit to giving your top prospects a chance, you may as well give one of your most promising prospects a go at the level.
This isn’t to say that the Braves should just discard Camargo once he returns from the freak accident that sidelined him. Again, he absolutely earned the opportunity that he got and he could very well end up being a valuable piece for the Braves in the future. That just shouldn’t come at the expense of a player who could wind up being even more important to the Braves and their future.
The Braves had no choice but to call Dansby Swanson back up due to Camargo’s incredibly unfortunate injury, and even though Swanson may still struggle at the plate, he’s still shown enough to where it’s worth it to let him take his lumps at this point in the rebuild.