Despite the fact that the Braves are coming off two of their roughest seasons in recent memory, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic for the upcoming season and future seasons as well. For starters, the franchise will actually be fielding a major league squad that will be watchable for people beyond the hardcore element of their fanbase. Part of that is due to the fact that it would be difficult to sell tickets to a brand-new stadium with a team that could be described as a Quad-A level team, but also part of that is due to the fact that some impact players on the aforementioned farm are close to making their debut, so you may as well build a pretty bridge to that promised land before you actually get there, right?
Either way, the team figures to at least be better than the dumpster fire that we were subject to for the majority of 2015 and 2016. The question now is just how good can the 2017 squad be? Most projections have the team hovering around the mid-70s win mark, which would probably be good enough for fourth place in the NL East. The betting odds seem to agree with that. However, if you take a look at the Braves’ roster, you can almost talk yourself into thinking “Hey, if things shake out in a positive way, this team could make some noise!” Part of that is the optimism of spring clouding our judgment, and part of that could actually be explained and backed up with stats and reason.
I’m not going to say that it’s impossible that the Braves could shake up the baseball world, here. After all, 1991 did happen. With that being said, it’s still very unlikely that the Braves as currently built are going to reach the postseason at this point. However, it’s not outside of the realm of possibility. Plus, if you ask any of the professionals who will be in that clubhouse this season, they’re convinced that they can make some noise this year. Granted, that’s exactly what you’d expect them to say, but should we really buy into it?
So, exactly what would it take for the Braves to pull off a miracle and take a trip into October baseball this season?
Freeman would have to continue playing at or near MVP level
Last season, Freddie Freeman had a career year at the plate on multiple fronts. He put up career numbers in OBP, slugging, wOBA, wRC+, home runs, and fWAR. He even stole a career-high of six bases, so it was clearly a banner year for the corner stone of the franchise. He was arguably the best first baseman in the National League last year, and if the Braves were going to pull out this magical surprise, it would take a repeat season. It might even take a better season than that.
Granted, a super-season from Freeman alone wouldn’t be enough to put the Braves into the postseason. You only need to take a look at what Mike Trout has been doing with the Angels. That man has been working miracles for the Angels and he has the MVP awards to prove it, but despite his other-worldly efforts the red side of Los Angeles could only finish 4th in the AL West with 74 wins. So it’s definitely possible that Freddie Freeman could continue to elevate his game while the Braves remain in the mid-70s. But at the same time, if we’re going to be watching this team in October then continued excellence from Freeman would be imperative to making it happen.
Teheran would need to take a step to the next level
While Freddie Freeman deservedly took most of the headlines last year for his stellar season, Julio Teheran also got a fair bit of credit for a bounce-back season of his own. His 2016 ERA and FIP were nearly a full point lower than they were in 2015, and if you want to get a bit more advanced then just take a look at how he drastically slashed his ERA- and FIP- numbers from 2015 to 2016. It was a sign that Teheran’s 2015 season may have been the outlier instead of a trend, but if the Braves are going to upset the apple cart this season then his 2017 season would have to be better.
I think that everybody would take a similar season from Julio in 2017. After all, a 3.21 ERA and a 3.69 FIP with nearly eight strikeouts per nine innings and a walk rate of 5.4% is absolutely solid and what you’d want from a pitcher at or near the top of your rotation. The thing is that the aces of playoff teams are normally putting up fWAR numbers in the 4-5 win range. Teheran’s best season was last season, which is when he tied his 2014 output with 3.2 fWAR. There’s no debate as to whether or not Teheran is a good pitcher, but there’s still a bit of doubt as to whether or not Julio can take a leap to becoming a great pitcher. This would be a requirement for the Braves to buck the odds and have a great season.
The Nationals and/or Mets would have to have a complete meltdown
Of course, the Braves would need to ride their luck a bit of this dream scenario is going to happen. Despite the fact that baseball has evolved into a game that can be analyzed and pored over to the very last detail and minutia, this is still a sport where very strange things can happen. It’s why this is a sport that has room for things such as Pitchf/x, StatCast, and other analytic tools while also having room for stuff like the Cubs going 108 years between World Series championships because of SPOOKY CURSES~!!! So not everything about baseball makes sense, and one thing that would be absolutely shocking — and also hilarious from a partisan standpoint -- would be the Nationals and Mets having a spectacular collapse in 2017.
It’s not too difficult to see the Mets possibly having a disappointing season this year. They’d just need a repeat of what happened last year, which is when most of their rotation succumbed to injury. Those health concerns are still a major issue for them, and if Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz, and Jacob deGrom can’t return to form following their injury woes in 2016 then a similar fate could await them this year. Add to that the question marks surrounding their jammed-up outfield (outside of Yoenis Cespedes, who they wisely locked up on a big contract) and other position players who have injury concerns, and things could definitely go south for the Mets.
Meanwhile, it’s hard to see the Nationals train going off the rails. Once again, the Nats are an easy pick to win the division this year, and the main question for them is whether or not Bryce Harper and friends can finally break out and make it to at least the NLCS. However, strange things could happen. Stephen Strasburg’s attempt at tweaking his delivery could turn out to be a hot mess. Max Scherzer could completely fall off from being the consistent 5-6 fWAR pitcher that he’s been for the past few years. Last year’s “down year” for Harper could end up being a trend instead of an anomaly. The injury bug that haunted New York could make its way to our nation’s capital. Even with all of these things happening, that would still shake out to the Nats being an 80-or-so win team but that would be tantamount to complete failure with the way this team is currently constructed. I highly doubt that this would happen, but if it does then this particular development (combined with a possible Mets collapse) would open the door for the Braves to possibly slide in.
Massive over-achievement from multiple Braves
One of the main reasons why the Braves are exuding plenty of confidence this season is how they ended last season. The arrival of Matt Kemp and Dansby Swanson coincided with the offense showing signs of life — to the point where they were hitting at a level that was near the top of the NL as the season came to a close. If the Braves are going to make a run at this in 2017, then they’d need to sustain that offensive production throughout the entire season.
That would mean that Matt Kemp would have to have a full season of solid production at the plate instead of having one half of good hitting and a half of struggles. That would mean that Dansby Swanson would have to become the consistent 5-6 win player that we all hope he can develop into like, now. Ender Inciarte’s late-season surge at the plate in 2016 would have to become a permanent transformation for this season. Brandon Phillips would have to reach back to his production levels from 2012. We’d have to get more than just 1 WAR or so from whatever the Braves are going to do at third base — whether it’s another year of Adonis Garcia being the starter or if he’s platooning with Rio Ruiz. The bullpen would have to be as reliable as ever when it comes to holding whatever leads the rotation can sit on in their quest to eat as many innings as possible this year.
Either way, nearly everybody on the roster would have to step it up, but the unsung heroes would have to completely beat all of their projections if this is going to work itself out into a playoff run.
Pristine health
Then there’s the health. Make no mistake about it: If Freddie Freeman goes down for a significant period of time, the Braves are going to be pretty bad. If Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey fail to hold up this season and the Braves have to dip into their Gwinnett reserves for a significant amount of starts and it turns out that Matt Wisler and Aaron Blair still aren’t ready, then that’s going to be trouble. If Jaime Garcia still has injury woes and all of the aforementioned scenarios play out, then that’s going to spell trouble.
It’s simple to say that injuries have a big effect on things, but they do. Avoiding the injury bug would be an absolute must for this team if it comes to making a surprise run. There’s no such thing as an injury-plagued champion — the 2010 Braves are proof of that — and in addition to having over-performance from both stars and role-players alike, luck going against their opponents, and other forces of nature going the Braves way, they’d also need to have a sparkling health report for the entire season as well.
So basically, it would take a lot for this particular Braves team to possibly be a contender. That’s not to say that having a ho-hum season with a win total in the mid-70s would be the worst thing in the world. Again, I think that most reasonable Braves fans are expecting this team to start actually being a legit contender for a Wild Card spot in 2018, which is hopefully when the farmhands who are close to the majors right now have finally got a decent amount of major league action under their belt and are performing at a good level as well. There’s nothing wrong with this being a bridge year, and the team figures to have enough talent and personality to make things interesting to watch.
It would just take a huge leap from everybody involved in order for this team to make the jump from “adorable ragtags” to “actual contenders.” This is a strange sport and we’re living in a very strange world right now so I’m not going to completely rule a miracle run out, but it would take nearly everything coming up Braves in order for a miracle run to October to happen. The future’s very bright for this franchise, but we aren’t quite there just yet.