The Rule 5 draft is a funny thing. It occurs just as the offseason is ramping up, and the deadline to protect potentially-eligible players happens even earlier, making the roster moves that precede it the subject of heightened focus. In the end, though, the Rule 5 draft just isn’t that important: only about one percent of seasonal production (in terms of WAR) is accrued by players acquired via the Rule 5 draft.
Part of the reason why Rule 5 production is so hard to come by is because the specific rules about eligibility make it very difficult for a worthwhile player to stick through the cracks. Not only does an eligible player somehow have to be left off his team’s 40-man roster, but he also needs to last an entire season with his new team, wearing a major league uniform and eating up a valuable 25-man roster spot every single game. Each of those, alone, is a hurdle. Together, they present a challenge.
If you’re interested in such things, I’m sure you’ve read all sorts of previews about potential Rule 5 draft targets in the past few days. In thinking about this particular avenue of player acquisition, I’ve tried to flip the script: I’m focusing not on the exciting, toolsy guys that are good prospects, but rather, something more blase: the guys that might actually stick on a 25-man roster for an entire season. Again, these guys aren’t highly-rated prospects. Organizations probably won’t sweat losing these guys, which is part of the reason why they weren’t protected to begin with. Still, there might be something of interest in the list below... or not.
- Brad Keller (Arizona) - nothing special righty starter, but the Braves just used Luke Jackson in the bullpen for a full season and as such, you get the idea.
- Victor Reyes (Arizona) - former Brave farmhand, probably won't do much but focuses on contact and has no pop, so would probably be a weak hitter; problem is that the Braves have way too many ineffectual fourth/fifth outfielder candidates as it is.
- Kyle Martin (Boston) - change-up-focused righty reliever, is pretty much the type of generic middle relief guy that exists in every system; there’s no real reason to take him, but he exists.
- Charcer Burks (Chicago Cubs) - hit well at AA with little pop, fast-type fourth/fifth outfielder who hasn’t really had the experience of failing miserably while moving up a level yet.
- Trevor Clifton (Chicago Cubs) - seems like he should be better than he is given his stuff, but the Braves could take the righty and bury him in a mop-up role in the hopes that he can figure out the whole pitching as a starter thing later.
- Chesny Young (Chicago Cubs) - if a team really wants to use its Rule 5 spot on a utility infielder that may not be able to ever hit in the majors, I guess.
- Jordan Guerrero (Chicago White Sox) - can be buried as a LOOGY with pretty good control and then go back to starting, but upside seems likely limited so unclear why anyone would commit the roster spot to him.
- Nick Longhi (Cincinnati) - this is actually a wacky idea since he underwent TJS despite being a 1B/OF type, so a team could stash him, but probably too dangerous to do so because he’d have to learn to hit at the major league level after recovering.
- James Farris (Colorado) - big uptick in velocity after he stopped starting, and was really good as a reliever until crashing in AAA last year. Righty reliever with some upside, but still just a reliever and probably won’t be a great one.
- Harrison Musgrave (Colorado) - very generic lefty pitchability type, like potentially-worse Sean Gilmartin; could perhaps survive a season in the bullpen.
- Adam Ravenelle (Detroit) - basically Mauricio Cabrera redux, with a huge arm but no real ability to do anything with it. Maybe he gets better major league coaching on the fly and develops into an asset, but might be really painful if he doesn’t due to some egregious minor league walk rates and the fact that he lacks deception and movement.
- Jason Martin (Houston) - another fourth outfielder candidate that would be fine if the Braves weren’t flush with them. More pop but worse plate discipline and on-base skills than some of the other fourth outfielder candidates on this list.
- Ryan O’Hearn (Kansas City) - basically a strictly worse Matt Adams, which is an issue because the Braves already had, and non-tendered, actual Matt Adams.
- Jeff Brigham (Miami) - on the minus side, he’s spent the last three years in High-A, but on the plus side he has a lot of upside that could be realized if he gets buried for the 2018 season in a mop-up role and then goes back to developing as a starter. He throws hard and has the fastball-slider mold for relievers anyway, so perhaps using him as a reliever won’t be a disaster.
- Austin Dean (Miami) - I don’t think you’ll ever be able to find a more generic fourth/fifth outfielder Rule 5-type selection than Dean, and yet, here he is.
- Nick Burdi (Minnesota) - has been discussed in Braves circles here and there for various reasons. Had TJS in June, so he’s definitely a stash type, but unlike some of the other injured guys the Braves have snagged in Rule 5s recently, he’s very raw and has only 104 professional innings under his belt. He’d be a fun guy to add to the system and watch pitch, but like the other guys in this list, expectations should be low. He’s much higher risk, and potentially higher reward, though.
- Jake Reed (Minnesota) - more of a “hey maybe this guy will be just as good in 2018 as going forward” than a stash play, Reed is a relief prospect (to the extent such a thing exists) who throws hard, has a good slider, and walks a lot of guys. He actually doesn’t get as many strikeouts as you’d think given his mid-90s velocity, but he’s kind of a groundball pitcher from what I can tell, anyway.
- Kohl Stewart (Minnesota) - hasn’t quite crested AAA nor had great success at AA yet, but he’s 23 and was picked fourth overall in 2013. With the potential for decent command three above-average pitches, it seems very strange that someone won’t take Stewart and put him in a mop-up or long relief role. That could be the Braves, but I actually expect him to be taken even before that.
- Wuilmer Becerra (New York Mets) - at present, Becerra is really just a riskier fourth/fifth outfield candidate than the other guys listed here, since he hasn’t even played in AA and has very little power to speak of. But, he was getting a 60 FV on his hit tool (per Eric Longenhagen) before the 2017 season, so that makes him worth mentioning here. It’s kind of half-cheating to have him here since I think there’s a much higher chance he’ll be so overmatched he won’t stick on a major league roster for a whole year, but he’s more interesting than the other generic fourth outfielder types so listed.
- Casey Meisner (Oakland) - another work-in-progress backend starter type who’s easy to bury in long relief and might have some projectability that he could channel in the future.
- Carlos Tocci (Philadelphia) - there’s pretty much no chance he gets taken unless something weird happens, because he was Rule 5 eligible last year and wasn’t taken, so here we are again. Still, Tocci is kind of interesting - he’s a really good defensive outfielder and is quite fast. Given absolutely no power and a contact-oriented approach, he’s the kind of generic fifth outfielder/defensive replacement type everyone is familiar with. But, he hasn’t stolen many bases in the minors, which means he’s lacking one of those useful 25th man skills.
- Tyler Eppler (Pittsburgh) - the good news is that unlike a lot of guys on this list, he’s been at least kind of durable, logging nearly 300 innings between AA and AAA the last two years. The bad news is that he’s fairly generic. As a pitchability guy, he can potentially survive on a roster, but as a pitchability guy, it’s not very exciting.
- Yeudy Garcia (Pittsburgh) - stats are misleading since he was no good as a starter in AA, but had passable-to-good numbers after he was shifted to the pen. Probably not any huge upside here, but he’s on here because he throws in the mid-90s and sometimes that can get you by for a whole year.
- Sam Coonrod (San Francisco) - honestly these guys with good fastballs, potentially decent sliders, and no real other pitches and spotty command start to blend together for me, and Coonrod is another one. He’d be more interesting if he threw lefty, but he doesn’t. Since he plays for the Giants, I expect him to win the Cy Young next year; if the Braves take him, he won’t make it out of Spring Training with the team.
- Jordan Johnson (San Francisco) - mostly just interesting because he has a good changeup to go with a pretty good fastball and a potentially-decent curveball that he only picked up recently, and some reports (but not others) have his command as pretty decent. More interesting and less generic than other names here, might be more risky in terms of surviving a year on the roster since he doesn’t throw that hard.
- Ian Miller (Seattle) - basically hasn’t hit at all aside from a half-season of repeating AA to start 2017, but he’s fast in the field and on the basepaths and a good defensive outfielder. Could a team carry him as a lefty-hitting fifth outfielder? Probably. Will he be one of the worst hitters in baseball if you do? Seems like it.
- Chuck Taylor (Seattle) - was taken in the second round of the minor league portion of last year’s Rule 5, but hit pretty well (117 wRC+) in AA. Good plate discipline that he’s made gains in, and he’s kind of well-rounded in that he’s not particularly good at anything. But, his name is Chuck Taylor, so here he is on this list.
- Nick Cuiffo (Tampa Bay) - the Braves already have a catching tandem so they can’t really take Cuiffo and keep him on the roster unless something happens, but the former first round pick is by most accounts a good defensive catcher, and his bat finally progressed to “not awful” as he hit for a 102 wRC+ in AA last year. He’s only 22, and if the Braves were in the position of having a durable primary catcher, they could probably carry a good defensive backup like Cuiffo for a full year; maybe another team will.
- Michael De Leon (Texas) - glove-first (glove-only, really) infielder who doesn’t really do anything else, but is only 20. Seemed more interesting after 2016, where he put up an 87 wRC+ in High-A, but after being absolutely demolished in AA (49 wRC+ over 418 PAs) there’s not much of a point, unless a team really wants a capable defensive infielder that can’t hit at all, with an eye towards shoving him back into the minors for more development later, given his very young age.
- Francisco Rios (Toronto) - backend starter type at best, but might be better in a relief role if he can gain additional velocity on his low-90s fastball, since he has a workable curveball. Lack of strikeouts and a huge spike in walk rate in AA are a concern.
- Jordan Romano (Toronto) - yet another fastball/slider guy who throws hard, doesn’t have a great third pitch, and subpar command, though the difference is that he hasn’t been shunted to the bullpen, nor seriously injured, nor substantially ineffective yet. But, he also hasn’t made it to AA yet.
- Osvaldo Abreu (Washington) - basically a utility guy because he can field short, but also can’t hit. Again, could be buried as a 25th man to come up for pinch-running or defensive replacement duty, but the upside seems so limited that while a team could snag him and keep him, I’m not sure why one would.
- Drew Ward (Washington) - would be interesting as a corner infielder with power, but hasn’t actually showcased much power yet, especially not in AA, where he’s struggled to hit in over 600 PAs now. High walk rate and power from the left side could make him potentially interesting, but he’d have to have the plate discipline and the power both play up to be worth carrying for an entire year.