In preparation for Opening Day, the writers here on the site have tried to preview every angle of the 2016 Atlanta Braves. Before today's post, we have talked about best and worst case scenarios, interesting prospects to know, the biggest concerns for the season, what's changed since 2015 and previewed the lineup.
Today though, we'll take a look at the pitching that Fredi Gonzalez will have available, and try to figure out whether or not this starting rotation can make it through an entire season and also whether the bullpen is primed to once again be one of the game's worst.
The Projected Starting Rotation
- Julio Teheran
- Bud Norris
- Matt Wisler
- Jhoulys Chacin
- Mike Foltynewicz
The first three players in this group have seemingly been a lock from the get go, as Teheran and Wisler would have had to blow their arms out not to start the year in the rotation, while Norris and his veteran-presents was always going to be difficult for Fredi and the rest of the team to turn down.
There's real potential for Teheran and Wisler, as you all surely know by now, and they're the best bets to get the highest number of innings this season. Teheran had a rough season last year thanks to a whole number of different things (lower release point, increased usage of a changeup that had less drop, a low strand rate and a high HR/FB rate), but thankfully he finished the season strong. While that gives some room for optimism, there are still some real questions about how good Teheran can consistently be. This is a big year for him.
Wisler is perhaps the most interesting starting pitcher (at least to start the season) on the roster, and after a lot of talk about working with Tom Glavine on his changeup, there's some cause for optimism here as well. Last year Wisler finished with a 4.71 ERA and a 4.93 FIP but I'm expecting some improvement after his first full Major League season. If he scraps the curve and focuses on commanding his fastball, slider — which has shown real plus potential — and the new change, I would expect to see improvement from his peripherals.
If Norris can replicate his 2014 form with the Orioles (3.65 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 165.1 IP), he'd be a valuable addition to the rotation. He's struggled at points through spring training, but he's also shown flashes of being a solid Major League starter. This is the most "meh" component of the rotation.
The last two spots have been the biggest questions throughout the spring and based on performance and the opinion of MLB.com's Mark Bowman, Jhoulys Chacin has worked his way into one of those spots. Chacin is interesting in that he's still 28 years old and has shown glimpses of being a good pitcher in the past (9.04 K/9 and a 3.28 ERA with the Rockies in 2010), but his struggles with command have held him back. This spring, Chacin struck out 11 batters and walked four over 11.1 innings, but that's far different from going through a team's starting lineup two or three times in the regular season.
Foltynewicz might be the biggest surprise on this list, simply because of the injury concerns he had coming into the season. After a blood clot sidelined him at the end of last season, he wasn't expected to begin the year with the team, but he stepped on the mound this spring and seemed to be throwing in the upper 90s just as easily as he usually does. Writes Bowman, "As he recorded five strikeouts over 3 2/3 innings against the Astros' normal lineup on Tuesday, Foltynewicz displayed a sense of confidence and composure that was not seen last year."
While there hasn't been an officially announced starting rotation, at this point in time this seems like the five to bet on, with Manny Banuelos and Williams Perez as options as well.
The Projected Bullpen
- Arodys Vizcaino
- Jason Grilli
- Jim Johnson
- Alexi Ogando
- Daniel Winkler
- Alex Torres
- Jose Ramirez
- Williams Perez
Arodys Vizcaino, Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson are all locks to start the season in the bullpen, regardless of Johnson's struggles this spring. While Vizcaino should probably be the closer, it looks like it's a toss up between him and Grilli at this point and while I would like to hand that role off to Vizzy, I'm doubting that will be the case.
After the first three, there are five more spots in the pen — at least until April 12 when the Braves will need a fifth starter for the first time. Alexi Ogando, Alex Torres and Ian Krol seem to be favorites to grab one of these spots, with Jose Ramirez, Daniel Winkler, Carlos Torres, John Gant, Perez and Banuelos as options as well.
It's a bit of a guessing game for me when looking at the bullpen, but here's my basic reasoning when looking at the last five players.
Alexi Ogando: There is every indication that the Braves wanted Ogando in the bullpen to start the season, and a allowing just one run over 5.2 innings this spring while striking out six and walking two isn't going to do anything to knock him out of it.
Daniel Winkler: While the Braves took Winkler in the Rule 5 draft two years ago, they'd only need to keep him on the roster through the first week of June to avoid offering him back to the Rockies after recovering from Tommy John last year. That condition, in addition to his strong performance this spring (12 strikeouts, 0 walks over 7.2 innings) should put him in the pen.
Alex Torres: This pen is heavy on righties, and based on these predictions Torres would be the lone lefty to open the season in the bullpen. Ian Krol is the other lefty you would consider, but he had an atrocious spring (12.71 ERA, .321 batting average against) while Torres has been solid (2.45 ERA, .167 batting average against). Torres has always posted high strikeout rates, but he's struggled with command and last season he wasn't as effective against lefties as you would like to see. There's potential here, but it's risky, especially considering he would be the only lefty in this hypothetical pen.
Jose Ramirez: Ramirez would have to clear waivers if the Braves wanted to assign him to a minor league team, so that helps his case here. He's similar to Torres in that he throws hard and can strike people out, but has struggled with command. This spring he's fanned eight and walked four over nine innings, but I think the Braves try him out thanks to his contract situation.
Williams Perez: I could have gone with another lefty for this final spot, but I feel like it might be safer to have a long relief option, given the starting rotation, and that's exactly what Perez is. I think this role fits him best at the Major League level anyways, and I'm going with him here.
Obviously this isn't going to be the bullpen throughout the season, and there are a handful of different players who could come up and make this unit better. Shae Simmons should be available at some point in May or June, and he brings some real potential to the table. There are also a handful of prospects who are fringe starter guys who the Braves might want to turn into relievers, ala Chris Ellis, Zachary Bird, Andrew Thurman, etc. Gant's name has been thrown around in this role as well, but I would like to see him keep starting for now.
In closing — as I've probably rambled on way too much about a bottom-tier team's bullpen — this group should be better than the 2015 pen that was 29th in the league according to Fangraphs WAR. At the same time, there are a lot of injury questions with many of these players, as well as more than a few volatile arms in terms of locating pitches. It's not going to be a Royals pen by any stretch of the imagination, but a few guys might develop into reliable relievers.