In advance of Opening Day, we have taken to the internet to bring you an all-everything preview of the 2016 Atlanta Braves. Before this post, we touched on the best and worst case scenarios for the team, and prior to that, we explored the team's prospects, the biggest concerns overall and what exactly transpired since the end of the 2015 campaign.
Today, we will take a glance at what to expect from the lineup as a whole, including what type of impact the departure of Andrelton Simmons will have on the defense. Let's roll.
The Projected Lineup
- CF - Ender Inciarte
- SS - Erick Aybar
- 1B - Freddie Freeman
- RF - Nick Markakis
- LF - Hector Olivera
- 3B - Adonis Garcia
- C - A.J. Pierzynski
- 2B - Jace Peterson
This alignment is, of course, a guess. Fredi Gonzalez is capable of just about anything when it comes to lineup construction, and this certainly isn't the batting order that I would deploy. With that out of the way, there are some spots in the lineup that are firmly entrenched, while others present some wiggle room.
Adonis Garcia enters the year as the likely third base choice, but there are veterans behind him in Kelly Johnson and Gordon Beckham that would surely enjoy the opportunity to compete. Behind the plate, A.J. Pierzynski will be in a timeshare with Tyler Flowers, and it will be interesting to see where that goes, especially given the regression from 2015 that will likely strike Pierzynski at the plate. Finally, Jace Peterson is the team's best second baseman right now, but the Braves provided a window into their thinking in Spring Training, and Peterson could be cast as a super-utility player that moves all around the diamond during the 2016 season.
The Braves have, at least in my mind, five positions that are "locks" unless something changes on the roster via trade. Freddie Freeman is the team's franchise player and isn't going anywhere, the starting outfield appears set with Olivera, Inciarte and Markakis from left to right and, for now, Erick Aybar is the team's no-doubt starting shortstop. Elsewhere, though, there are battles.
Is it going to be ugly?
Well, yes.
On the bright side, though, it can't be worse than 2015.
The Braves finished 30th (read: last) in runs scored by a considerable margin a year ago, and there are some positives when comparing the two offenses. First, moving from Andrelton Simmons to Erick Aybar is probably a neutral move, but it could be an upgrade considering Simmons' somewhat brutal performance (.660 OPS) at the plate in 2015. Cameron Maybin had some hot stretches in centerfield, but on the whole, Inciarte is probably a better hitter, especially if he can improve his platoon splits in year one in Atlanta. Finally, the addition of Hector Olivera (at least what we believe him to be) could be huge for this team in that he profiles as a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat to complement Freeman and (I guess) Markakis.
While there is some reason to be optimistic, the reality is that this group probably won't escape the bottom five of the league in runs scored. Only Freeman, Markakis (provided he keeps up a .370 OBP) and Olivera look like above-average hitters at their position, and the Braves were buoyed at times in 2015 by a lights-out season from Pierzynski. I would set the bar at 620-650 runs, and while that would be a vast improvement, it wouldn't be anything to be terribly excited about.
So, what about the defense?
I don't have to tell you that losing Andrelton Simmons is a big deal in this aspect.
Simmons is arguably the best defensive player in baseball given the premium position that he occupies, and FanGraphs assigned a 25 DRS value to his performance a year ago. In short, Simmons can virtually transform a team's infield defense, and he immediately makes any third baseman and second baseman more effective given his ridiculous range.
Erick Aybar isn't Andrelton Simmons.
Aybar has a career (yes, career) +2 DRS over nearly a decade in the majors, and he has been profiled as a negative defender in each of the past three seasons. Don't get me wrong, he isn't a disaster by any means, but it is hard to explain the difference between (essentially) having prime Ozzie Smith at shortstop and deploying a run-of-the-mill defender at that spot every day.
Elsewhere, though, the Braves made a huge upgrade in centerfield, and that will help to mitigate the damage left by Simmons' departure. Cameron Maybin was brutal according to every advanced metric in 2015, and even if they overvalue the damage he caused, we can all agree that he isn't a top-tier defender at the position. Ender Inciarte, though, is a monster defensively, with nearly 50 defensive runs saved in only two seasons of MLB service.
Unfortunately, that is where the positive vibes cease, as it is tough to be optimistic about any other position on the diamond. Freddie Freeman is fine defensively, Jace Peterson is an above-average second baseman (if he plays there full-time) and the catcher spot isn't a pure disaster. However, Garcia is underwhelming (to be kind) at third, Olivera is playing a new position in left field that will take some time, and Nick Markakis is statuesque in right field to the point where he is now a liability.
Other than that, things are great!
The Outlook
Because there isn't a lot to be sure about, it is going to be an interesting year for the position players. Even the safest of safe players (Freddie Freeman) is battling a lingering injury concern that could affect his performance at the plate, and there are multiple spots around the diamond that could devolve into straight platoons in a hurry. Fredi Gonzalez will have his hands full with this roster, but unlike the starting rotation (which is sure to be much worse than a year ago), there is reason to believe that the overall output from the eight players behind the pitcher could be improved from 2015.
We're almost to Opening Day.