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Game Thread 7/22 Braves vs Marlins

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Come discuss the Braves offense being shut down by the guy with the 6.22 ERA!

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Mike Minor Day guys! Since I am lazy I am going to plagiarize my blurb for this game thread from some series preview I found on the internet.

On Tuesday the Braves send their guy who is totally better than his 2014 ERA says he is (Mike Minor) against the guy the Marlins better hope isn’t as much of a trainwreck as his 2014 numbers say he is (Jacob Turner). Jacob Turner’s 2014 got off to a disastrous start and Tuesday will be his first start after a hiatus in the bullpen and AAA. Turner’s story is similar to Minor’s in that his peripherals say he shouldn’t be nearly as bad as his 6.22 ERA would indicate. For one thing Turner’s FIP is at 3.83 and his xFIP is right in line with that at 3.78. Both of these numbers are improvements on Turner’s performance in 2013 when he had a 3.74 ERA.

Now FIP and xFIP aren’t magical numbers that come out of nowhere. Specifically, in 2014 Turner has improved upon his strikeout rate and walk rate. Turner’s walk rate has declined massively going from 4.12 to 2.40 in 2014. Turner’s groundball rate is also up, suggesting he hasn’t necessarily been allowing harder contact. In 2014 Turner is striking out more guys, walking fewer batters, getting groundballs at a higher rate, and allowing fewer fly balls. This kind of improvement is a recipe for better results as a pitcher. His line drive rate is up slightly (19.5% to 20.3%) but he is also suffering from the ole babip run of bad luck. In 2013 Turner allowed a .284 babip and this year it is .365. To top it all off the best metric for future ERA is SIERA and Turner’s SIERA is 3.81. SIERA, FIP, and xFIP are all in agreement about what kind of season Turner is having with ERA being the only holdout. This is the same old song and dance, Turner isn’t nearly as bad as his ERA says he is. Don’t be angry when the Braves get one run off the guy with the 6.22 ERA. Please? Fine, get mad but don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Wow, that was some good analysis from that guy! So yeah Jacob Turner has a 6.22 ERA but he isn't actually that bad. Y'all are gonna be mad huh?

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<th align="left">MIAMI MARLINS</th>

<th align="left">ATLANTA BRAVES</th>

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<tr><td class="td-last td-name">Christian Yelich - LF</td><td class="td-first td-name">B.J. Upton - CF</td></tr><tr><td class="td-last td-name">Donovan Solano - 2B</td><td class="td-first td-name">Tommy La Stella - 2B</td></tr><tr><td class="td-last td-name">Giancarlo Stanton - RF</td><td class="td-first td-name">Freddie Freeman - 1B</td></tr><tr><td class="td-last td-name">Casey McGehee - 3B</td><td class="td-first td-name">Justin Upton - LF</td></tr><tr><td class="td-last td-name">Marcell Ozuna - CF</td><td class="td-first td-name">Jason Heyward - RF</td></tr><tr><td class="td-last td-name">Jeff Baker - 1B</td><td class="td-first td-name">Evan Gattis - C</td></tr><tr><td class="td-last td-name">Adeiny Hechavarria - SS</td><td class="td-first td-name">Chris Johnson - 3B</td></tr><tr><td class="td-last td-name">Jeff Mathis - C</td><td class="td-first td-name">Andrelton Simmons - SS</td></tr><tr><td class="td-last td-name">Jacob Turner - RHP</td><td class="td-first td-name">Mike Minor - LHP</td></tr></tbody>

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