Pitchers and Catchers Report, Making the Team Meter Returns
The original Making the Team Meter is back for another go-round in 2008. For those of you new to the MTM, it is a listing of all the members of the Braves 40-man roster and all non-roster invitees and their chances of making the team. Throughout the spring I'll track each of these players and give you their chances of making the opening day roster. It's a good way to keep track of all the players in camp and what their role might be.
This year I'll be breaking it up into two different MTM's -- one for pitchers and one for hitters. Each will make an appearance around once a week or as needed to keep up with the pace of the players' progress.
The MTM was copied on several other blogs, so if you see it elsewhere, know that this is still the original (not that it makes any difference whatsoever, I just love branding something as "original").
For the sake of the pitchers I am going to assume that some of them have already made the team -- a safe bet for the following folks. In the rotation I assume John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, and Tom Glavine have already made the team. In the bullpen, Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Will Ohman are assumed to have already made the team. There's not as many assumptions this year since I think we've got a LOT of different options.
So, here are the pitchers, their chances of making the team, and a note or comment about them. Remember that one's chances of making the team could change depending on trades or injuries, so that's why there's no reason for the guys on the outside to let up, and that's why this is an extremely optimistic assessment of these players' ability to make the team. Enjoy.
| Player, Position | Chance | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Acosta, RHP |
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He had a good showing last year, and with a strong spring could make the pen. |
| Jeff Bennett, RHP |
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Bennett had an excellent season of winter ball; could that momentum earn him a shot at the fifth starter job or bullpen long man? |
| Blaine Boyer, RHP |
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He should be fully recovered from his various injuries of the last two years. Remember that he was a force in the 2005 bullpen. |
| Buddy Carlyle, RHP |
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Outside, outside shot at rekindling his role as the fifth starter. |
| Jairo Cuevas, RHP |
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He's here to impress Cox and company for a shot further down the road. |
| Mike Hampton, LHP |
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His odds are at even and he's listed here because of the injuries; no one knows how he will bounce back after being away for two years. |
| Chuck James, LHP |
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Yep, he's listed here becuase of all the competition from Reyes, Jurrjens, Bennett and others. If Chuck doesn't show some improvment he might be moved. |
| Jair Jurrjens, RHP |
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He's behind Reyes and all accounts are he could really benefit from time at triple-A. |
| Anthony Lerew, RHP |
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Holy crap! He's still on the team. Yep. Anyone have any clue what to expect from Lerew? |
| Charlie Morton, LHP |
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He gets the even mark because of all the hype. He will likely be ticketed for triple-A. |
| Chris Resop, RHP |
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He's a hard thrower and out of options. With a decent spring he makes the club. |
| Jo-Jo Reyes, LHP |
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Is he the first choice to step in if Hampton can open the year? I say he get's more time at triple-A. |
| Jeff Ridgway, LHP |
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He's the third option for bullpen lefty behind Ohman and Ring. |
| Royce Ring, LHP |
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He's a hard throwing lefty who hasn't gotten much love in the past, but count me as one of his fans. |
| Zach Schreiber, RHP |
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He's auditioning for a mid-season injury replacment call-up. He could be this year's Joey Devine -- being yo-yo'ed between the majors and the minors. |
| Phil Stockman, RHP |
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The other Aussi is still a hard thrower with good control. With injuries behind him he could earn a spot in the pen. |
| Tyler Yates, RHP |
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Yeah, he's probably got a spot, but a boy can hope. |
| Francisley Bueno, LHP |
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Frank Good is the fourth bullpen lefty on the depth chart. He's auditioning for 2009. |
| Jorge Campillo, RHP |
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Hard-throwing righty with little chance of making the team. (But he could be the ghost of Ken Ray.) |
| Matt DeSalvo, RHP |
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An organizational arm for the Yankees, he got his feet wet in New York last year. Still, he would be like 10th on the starting pitching depth chart. |
| Ryan Drese, RHP |
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Why this guy ever gets chances to pitch in the majors is beyond me. |
| Arrow Key: |
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= Chance of making the team is going down. |
= Chance of making the team is going up. |
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24 comments
Comments
Lerew
by mflournoy on
Feb 14, 2008 9:47 AM EST
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Nice catch
by gondeee on
Feb 14, 2008 10:16 AM EST
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Reyes
by was385 on
Feb 14, 2008 10:07 AM EST
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same here
by Velcro Vernacular on
Feb 14, 2008 3:36 PM EST
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Ahh
As mflournoy said, Lerew is out til 2009 at the earliest. I think he's done. He doesn't have the work ethic to make it back from this kind of an injury. What a waste of talent.
I think the rotation on opening day ends up as:
Smoltz
Huddy
Glavine
Hampton
Reyes
Bennett (Swing)
With Chucky J starting the season on the DL. Hampton goes down after two starts, with Bennett filling in for a few weeks until James comes back from injuries.
And the bullpen:
Bennett (Swing)
Soriano
Moylan
Acosta
Yates
Ring
Ohman
Which is sad, because Boyer is out of options and he'll probably be traded. I'd rather have him than Yates.
by subwindow on
Feb 14, 2008 10:13 AM EST
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Not sure...
by RainDelay on
Feb 14, 2008 11:19 AM EST
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Nice analysis
IMO, here are the twelve guys with the best chance to break camp with Atlanta's staff:
- John Smoltz - #1 starter. If he puts up 200 innings again this year, they should put up another statue for him outside Turner Field.
- Tim Hudson - #2 starter. Watch Hudson surprise everyone with an all star season this summer.
- Tom Glavine - #3 starter. This move drips with nostalgia, but I look for Tommy to fade badly after the all star break. All the warning signs are out there. I think this is a one-season retirement party, with a run of quality starts prior to the all star break.
- Mike Hampton - #4 starter. I think he holds up in ST and initially receives kudos for his hard work and resilience. Then, I think it will take him 5-6 starts in April and May to get his command back. We will see if he can stay healthy throughout 2008, but that's simply a crap shoot at this point. I'm guessing he will have a somewhat better season than most people expect, but perhaps after a slow start.
- Chuck James - #5 starter. Here is another spot where all the warning signs are out there. He is only 26 years old, but he had to go on the DL on August 21 with a "tired arm". Now his shoulder hurts. That's a problem. He is a two-pitch pitcher who has not worked hard enough to develop a third pitch or to study the tendencies of NL hitters. Most young pitchers with this kind of persistent shoulder pain turn out to have significant injuries, and we already know he has a rotator cuff tear. They said it was "small", but we will see. He may break camp as the Braves' #5 starter. Or he may be traded in March. Or he may break down and go on the DL. We will see.
- Rafael Soriano - Closer. He has never been a closer before. From Mid-June to mid-August, he had gave up nine HRs in 24 innings. Then he made adjustments and allowed only one run in his last 17 innings of 2007. Which Soriano will show up in 2008? I'm guessing he will always give up an occasional untimely HR because he challenges hitters with heat. But I have no doubt he will be the best closer the Braves have had since John Smoltz went back to the starting rotation.
- Peter Moylan - Setup. Everyone expects Moylan to regress in 2008. To be fair, I don't expect any pitcher to sustain a 1.80 ERA every year. The thing that made Moylan's 2007 season so effective was his .242 BA allowed against lefty hitters. It is very unusual for a righthanded sidearm pitcher to pitch that effectively against lefty hitters. I don't know if Moylan can do that every year, but he is a big, strong pitcher in the prime of his career at 29 years old. He throws harder than most sidearm pitchers, and he had great command in 2007. that's why he was able to post such a great season. His motion is not the kind that fatigues an arm, and I think he will pitch effectively again in 2008 as the setup man for Soriano.
- Jeff Bennett - I think he breaks camp as the long reliever, or possibly as the fifth starter if James is hurt or traded. I think he will have a solid season in Atlanta in a variety of roles.
- Tyler Yates - Electric stuff, with a killer slider when he is able to spot it properly. But his command has always been his weakness. He will make the staff again, because BC likes him as a situational reliever against righty hitters.
- Blaine Boyer - Blaine is out of options. He is healthy again for the first time since 2005. The Braves haven't forgotten what he accomplished in 2005. He pitched well, with good velocity, in Richmond for the last 6 weeks of 2007. I don't think the Braves will let him get away. He will start the season in Atlanta, and be given a shot to show what he can do.
- Will Ohman - He is an effective situational lefty reliever everywhere except Wrigley Field. He doesn't have great stuff, but he is a veteran who knows NL hitters.
- Royce Ring - He is out of options. He throws hard, and he showed some signs in 2007 of developing better command. I think he will break camp with the Braves by beating out Jeff Ridgway in March. If Mike Gonzalez makes it back in 2008, Ring will have to beat out Ohman to stick in Atlanta. Otherwise, he will be dealt in mid-season.
Manny Acosta - This is the guy who made it easier for Frank Wren to trade Joey Devine. Acosta has the best stuff of any righthanded Braves reliever except Rafael Soriano. He pitched well against righthanded hitters in Atlanta in 2007, but he still walks too many batters. Once he develops better command, he will be a very effective major league set-up man. He has an option left, and I think that may cost him a major league roster spot in April. Unless he can beat out Tyler Yates, I suspect Acosta will narrowly miss making the Braves' pen in March, then we will see him come back up as the first reliever recalled from AAA. He may even be a future closer candidate.
Phil Stockman - He has electric stuff. If he stays healthy, we will see him in Atlanta in 2008. He could turn out to be this year's version of Peter Moylan.
Zach Schreiber - This is the year he makes it to Atlanta, but not before Acosta and Stockman.
Chris Resop - Like gondeee says, he has a shot in March because he throws hard. But this staff already has one hard throwing situational reliever with poor command (Yates), and I don't think they will break camp with two. And if they do, IMO the second one will be Acosta, not Resop. But if there are injuries or blow-ups in march, Resop has a chance. Otherwise, I think he gets cut. He could end up waiting his turn in AAA, or he could get claimed by another team.
Charlie Morton - He throws hard, he pitched very well in Arizona in the fall, and he has an option left. If he pitches well in AAA, he has a chance to make it to Atlanta sometime in 2008, perhaps even ahead of Jair Jurrjens.
Jair Jurrjens - He has an option left. If Chuck James is hurt or traded, he will get a long look in March. Otherwise, I think he begins the season in AAA.
Jairo Cuevas - 6'2" 24 year old righty has great stuff but no command. At Myrtle in 2007 (6-12), he pitched 132 innings, surrendering only 113, with 71 BBs and 116 KOs. This is Manny Acosta all over again. He will be moved to the minor league camp by mid-March, but he may be a name to remember for 2009.
Buddy Carlyle - His 2007 performance was gutsy, and may have saved th Braves from a serious folderoo. But his stuff is AAAA. Barring a catastrophy involving multiple injuries to starters, he cannot make the Braves staff in 2008. However, the Braves would like him to pitch well in March so they can trade him for an A-level minor league player with upside.
Jo Jo Reyes - He has an option left, and he will start the season in AAA unless he beats out (or replaces) Chuck James. Reyes is a lefty starter with electric stuff, but his command is in the early stages of development. Thus, he typically falls behind in the count, makes too many fat pitches, and walks too many batters. Still, I think this is the year Jo Jo develops into an effective major league pitcher. Keep in mind, also, that Jo Jo will become very conspicuous trade bait if Frank Wren goes after a big name.
Mike Gonzalez - he is due back from rehab after the all star break. He is said to be ahead of schedule. I believe the effectiveness of his return will have a lot to do with whether the Braves are contenders down the stretch.
Jeff Ridgway- Was acquired as insurance, in case Gonzalez doesn't make it back. I do not think he can beat out Will Ohman and Royce Ring in March. Ring is out of options. Ridgway still has an option, and he will start the season in AAA.
by Messenger on
Feb 14, 2008 11:55 AM EST
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Blaine Boyer
by Chester Highwater on
Feb 14, 2008 12:33 PM EST
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all i have to say is
macay mcbride
wilfredo ledezma
chad paronto
mike remlinger
chris reitsma
and last, most certainly least
dan kolb
with the bullpen looking the way it does this year in theory, i feel a little more optimistic going into the season.
my only opinion relevant to the discussion is on jo-jo - it's like he's too good for AAA/AA, but he just can't get it together in the majors. everytime he pitches, his minors stats are shown, and his strikeout totals are impressive; but he can't seem to translate such success in the majors. too bad there's no additional stepping stone in between AAA and the bigs for him.
by royhobbs on
Feb 14, 2008 12:53 PM EST
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Jo Jo
by gondeee on
Feb 14, 2008 4:33 PM EST
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I'd really..
by RainDelay on
Feb 14, 2008 5:04 PM EST
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Jeff Bennett
by baseballbrett13 on
Feb 14, 2008 6:27 PM EST
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Apparently
by kray1000 on
Feb 14, 2008 11:17 PM EST
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Quick Question.
Optimistic Projection Time! Here are my high hopes for our rotation in 2008. I actually think the first to are extremely realistic, the third is fairly optimitic and the last two might be pipe dreams. This leaves only 15 starts unaccounted for, so I guess we'll let those be league average to round out the optimism. Here we go:
#1 - Smoltz - 33 GS, 220 IP, 16-7, 3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8.5 K/9
#2 - Huddy - 33 GS, 210 IP, 15-9, 3.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 5.5 K/9
#3 - Glavine - 33 GS, 205 IP, 14-9, 4.20 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 4.5 K/9
#4 - Hampton - 24 GS, 145 IP, 10-8, 4.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 4.5 K/9
#5 - James - 24 GS, 145 IP, 12-8, 4.10 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 6.5 K/9
by ejruiz on
Feb 14, 2008 10:53 PM EST
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Rotation
Obviously, that's the rotation that the Braves want to use after breaking camp in April. What are the chances they will actually break camp with that rotation? I'm guessing about 50-50, or perhaps a little less than that.
The first question that must be answered is why Chuck James' shoulder is hurting. It certainly isn't common for a 26 year old to need to be DL'ed with a "tired arm", as James was last August. After the season, James announced he has a small rotator cuff tear that was expected to heal on its own, without surgery. But when he started throwing this month, his shoulder was still painful. This could turn out to be a minor thing but, under the circumstances, it could also be symptomatic of a significant shoulder injury.
The next big question is Hampton, who hasn't pitched in the major leagues since early 2006, when he underwenmt so-called "Tommy John" surgery. When he tried to come back in 2007, he tore a muscle in his left arm that required additional surgery. When he tried to pitch this winter in Mexico, he pulled a groin muscle in his first puting. Even if he is healthy now....which is hardly clear....he will still need time to regain his command and get the velocity back on his pitches. Because of the long period of "disuse", Hampton will be more susceptible than other pitchers to muscle injuries, but that does not necessarily mean he can't pitch effectively in 2008.
Based on his 2007 performance in NY, I'm guessing Tom Glavine will break out of the gate strongly in April and May, only to fade after the all star break.
All of this brings up the question of who steps into the Braves' rotation if one of these five projected starters cannot pitch for whatever reason. In no particular order, the candidates seem to be:
Jeff Bennett
Blaine Boyer
Buddy Carlyle
Charlie Morton
Jair Jurrjens
Jo Jo Reyes
Dan Smith
The pecking order seems to depend on what time of year the opportunity presents itself. Although Carlyle would be one of the longer shots on the list at anytime in 2008, his best chance would occur if injuries strike two starters in spring training.
Jurrjens, Morton, Smith, and Reyes should begin 2008 at AAA, and might be more likely to start in Atlanta's rotation if the opportunity presents itself after the all star break (i.e., assuming their AAA seasons are going well when opportunity knocks). Smith is the longest shot of the four, but not out of the question if he manages some quality starts at AAA early in the season.
Blaine Boyer's prospects depend entirely on a strong performance in camp in March. Otherwise, Boyer will be in another organization by April. And even if Boyer sticks in Atlanta, he is more likely to remain in the Braves' pen.
It is pretty clear that the guy with the best opportunity here is Bennett. Unless Bennett stinks in March (highly unlikely), he will almost certainly start games in the Braves' rotation at some point in 2008.
But, then again, this picture could literally change overnight if Frank Wren makes a trade for another starter.
by Messenger on
Feb 15, 2008 12:47 PM EST
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AAA Rotation.
by ejruiz on
Feb 15, 2008 1:50 PM EST
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true
O'brien blogged (on ajc) aftet the first day of pitcher catcher workouts that Morton caught Bobby's eye. Bobby commented that his stuff was impressive, and that would lead him to a starting job and not to the pen, or as o'brien put it (roughly) "his stuff will make an impact in atlanta's rotation"...and I'm thinking he's not going to make the rotation as a starter out of spring, so I'd say he's headed somewhere west or north of atlanta..Bennet looks great. He lost some weight and is ready to go..Chuck will be about 2 weeks behind everyone else..
by bravos408 on
Feb 15, 2008 10:09 PM EST
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Dan Smith
by was385 on
Feb 16, 2008 9:04 AM EST
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Ryan Drese
I think a little background on Drese is necessary here. He had a good year in 2004, winning 14 games for the Rangers, keeping the ball on the ground like a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. Sure his K rate was low, but as a back-end guy with a good sinker, you can get by on 4.5 to 5 K's per nine.
Then he started having problems. Though he was still keeping the ball on the ground, his K rate dropped from danger zone to intolerable. At this point, all hell broke loose. In August, he started complaining of soreness in his right shoulder that wound up being a labrum tear which required surgery in September. He had surgery and made it back in April of 2006, but then went immediately back on the DL (leaving the game during the fifth inning in his second start). Diagnosed with a partial tear of his UCL, he tried rehabbing but never made it back. He then had Tommy John surgery.
I'm not saying that the drop in his K rate was definitely due to arm problems, but is it possible that he was never really 100% in 2005? Is it possible that his labrum was bothering him a little all year? It's not uncommon for fringe-type pitchers to conceal injuries (just ask Anthony Lerew or Chuck James). Now, he's finally gotten all the crazy surgery stuff done. I think he could make it back, not as a star by any means, but at least as a decent sinkerballer in the #5 slot.
Jayson Stark agrees with me:
"Nobody accumulates potentially useful pitching options like the Braves. They quietly signed one-time 14-game winner Ryan Drese late last summer, content to let him ease back from Tommy John surgery. Now they're bringing him to camp with an eye toward stashing him at Richmond until they need him."
Why does everybody keep hating on this guy? Granted, I wouldn't say he's going to make the team out of camp, but neither are Charlie Morton or Buddy Carlyle, and they got "even" arrows.
by tgthree on
Feb 16, 2008 4:13 PM EST
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Long shot
- Jeff Bennett
- Jair Jurrjens
- Jo Jo Reyes
- Buddy Carlyle
- Blaine Boyer
- Ryan Drese
- Dan Smith
All of this means Drese is unliikely to get a chance in Atlanta. It's a numbers issue, but it's also about his stuff. I think the Braves like to keep guys like this around in the minors as insurance in case of disaster. In view of their bad luck with starters' health the last several years, it isn't hard to see why.
by Messenger on
Feb 17, 2008 9:33 AM EST
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I have to disagree...
Bennett may be at the top of the pecking order. I can agree with that, although it has many times been incorrectly reported that he is out of options.
Jurrjens and Reyes, however, could both use some time at AAA. Combined, those two have pitched a combined 36 innings at the AAA level, and Reyes especially needs some work. How nice would it be if Drese could return to form, allowing us to give them all the time they need? I think we should do everything possible to give Jurrjens and Reyes more time. It's even scarier that you'd suggest Tommy Hanson. He hasn't even mastered High-A yet...there would have to be some truly apocalyptic scenarios to see him in the majors.
Unfortunately, you don't remember correctly on Buddy Carlyle. He definitely has options left. Boyer doesn't, and he WILL be a Brave in April, but we can only hope the Braves know better than to try him out as a starter again. He needs to stay in the bullpen.
As I said, I know that Drese won't make the roster out of ST, but neither will Charlie Morton or Buddy Carlyle, and they both got "even" arrows. That's all I'm saying, and (depending on his recovery from injury) Drese may be one of the first guys we want to see called up. You can't talk about "stuff" for back-of-the-rotation guys. You want pitchers that keep the ball on the ground, and Drese (before injuries) was great at that.
by tgthree on
Feb 17, 2008 12:22 PM EST
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I don't see it
Clearly, Bennett is ahead of Ryan Drese in the Braves' plans. And given what DOB is saying on his blog about Bennett's physical conditioning, it looks like Bennett will be blocking more pitchers than just Drese.
You took some of my other comments out of context. I certainly did not suggest Tommy Hanson is headed to Atlanta in 2008. I simply pointed out that there are a number of pitchers ahead of Ryan Drese in Atlanta's plans. Sure, Jurrjens and Reyes can use some more seasoning at AAA. And, sure, Bobby Cox tends at times to become infatuated with certain veterans.
But OTOH, the Braves have spent the last two Octobers at home, largely because they had to depend too often on fill-in starters with mediocre stuff (e.g., Mark Redman, Buddy Carlyle, Lance Cormier, Oscar Villareal, Travis Smith, Jason Schiell). That's precisely why Frank Wren traded for Jurrjens. If you believe Ryan Drese will get a chance in Atlanta's rotation ahead of Bennett, Jurrjens, and Reyes, then you are a good long way out on a limb. I'm not saying it cannot happen. Obviously the Braves have him in the organization for a reason. But the odds are strongly against Drese unless there is an overwhelming rash of injuries on Atlanta's staff.
by Messenger on
Feb 17, 2008 2:10 PM EST
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