Community Projection: Mark Teixeira

by gondeee on Jan 6, 2008 4:23 PM EST in Community Projections

It seems rare that a hitter would have more success in the National League than he had in the American League, but that's what Mark Teixeira did after his trade from the Rangers to the Braves last year. Of course, when moving from the cavernous expanse of the Ballpark at Arlington to the shorter fences and higher altitude of Turner Field, increasing one's power output may not be so surprising (also moving form the big parks of the AL West to the smaller parks of the NL East). Tex managed to hit 20 points higher, slug 91 points higher, and drive in over a run per game - 54 games, 56 RBI.

Those stats certainly beg the question, what CAN was expect from our big first baseman in 2008. Surely he can't keep up that RBI-per-game pace... can he? What Tex did with runners on base during those last two months with Atlanta was absolutely sick. With runners in scoring position Teixeira hit .509 (27-for-53) with 8 homeruns and 44 RBIs - somebody slap me!

It would have been nice if all that production would have turned into a postseason appearance for the Braves, but from the stats he put up it certainly doesn't look like that was Tex's fault.

So the question again, can he repeat that performance? It seems unreal that anyone could hit .500 with RISP for a full season, but all we likely need is a fraction of that. I firmly believe that Teixeira is a .300-plus hitter who will only benefit and improve from a full year of being in the same lineup hitting right behind fellow switch-hitting slugger Chipper Jones. Assuming he's fully healthy, here is my prediction for Teixeira in 2008:

.311/.397/.605 with 43 HR, 158 RBI, 90 BB, 131 SO.

He makes the RBI-per-game mark since he takes about five or six off-days - remember, Bobby likes to give his regulars some rest every so often. With Yuney, KJ, and Chipper getting on in front of big Tex he will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs, and he takes full advantage, and unlike Andruw last year, Teixeira has a big year in his free agent walk year.

And just in case you forgot (and how could you), here is a song to get you excited about Mark Teixeira while you make your prediction:

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Predictions

Tex should have a great year, I don't know if he can keep up a pace of and RBI a game, but I don't doubt he will be too far off. This guy will benefit from hitting behind Chipper and having a couple of solid hitter in Francoeur and McCann batting right behind him. Plus this guy is just getting into his prime years, so I don't see his numbers dropping off.

Another reason I think he has a big season is the fact that he is VERY serious about his job. When I went and watched a series in St. Louis he was out warming up before everyone else, and was still warming up when everyone else is done. He seems to be quite tuned into the game and is always the first one in his defensive stance when the ball is about to be pitched (this maybe a reason he is a gold glover). Also, he is routinely the first one on the field and you can just tell he loves to play the game everyday.

Anyways here are my projections.

.316/.395/.613 45 Homeruns, 145 RBI, 95 BB, 135 K's

by whunt13 on Jan 6, 2008 6:31 PM EST 0 recs

hold on

I like Tex as much as the next guy, and think he'll have a good year, but let's take a step back.

His top 3 slg% for a full season are .575, .563, and .560. His career slg% is .539. Why should we expect him to suddenly jump to more than .600? Smaller parks will help, but 30 points over his previous best and 60+ better than career avg?

I'd go more with .305/.395/.580, maybe 38 HR and 120 RBI.

by B Agate on Jan 6, 2008 10:26 PM EST 0 recs

Mine

.299/.387/.552, 39 2B, 35 HR, 83 BB, 156 Games

I'll say he's something like the 4th most valuable NL 1st Baseman behind Pujols, Howard, and Fielder.

by 17843 on Jan 7, 2008 2:15 AM EST 0 recs

overall worth

I think he's much better than Fielder considering the glove and because Fielder's fat ass is slow as molasses and somewhat one-dimensional.

by Gregory Pratt on Jan 7, 2008 2:31 AM EST up 0 recs

Nah

I wouldn't say much better. He's a few runs better than Fielder with the glove, but neither runs well at all and the gap with the bat (at least on my projections) is big enough to put Fielder ahead of him.

As for Howard, Teixeira and Howard rate similarly on some defensive metrics, differently on others. The difference again can't be much more than a few runs. Howard does rate as one of the worst baserunners in baseball, but again, isn't much worse than Teixeira. Offensively he's superior.

by 17843 on Jan 9, 2008 1:23 PM EST up 0 recs

Tex

I would actually take him over Howard as well. Howard has the skillset of a player who does not age well and he is older by Texeira (though only by 4 months). Tex does not strike out alot and is a good hitter who provides much more than just the longball. Second best 1st baseman in the NL after Albert. I say:

.319/.396/.601 42 HR with 127 RBI

by jimmylauderdale on Jan 7, 2008 10:05 AM EST 0 recs

Resigning

I've said this here before, but a failure to resign Texeira, who's one of the best bats in MLB, as well as a Gold Glove player, will be the worst Braves front office move in the team's history in ATL.

by iLukeisamazing on Jan 7, 2008 10:29 AM EST 0 recs

With all the money...

...coming off the books I have no doubt that the Braves will try to make him a very rich man. But do you view him as the type of guy who would take the extra 5-10 million dollars a team like the Yankees or the Mets might pay him?

by Smoltzs Beard on Jan 7, 2008 2:06 PM EST up 0 recs

Family* Connection

by VegasAces on Jan 7, 2008 7:19 PM EST up 0 recs

No Question...

...that the attempt will be made. But the question is, will it be enough. With the available money, the Braves should be able to at least come close to matching any offer from NYY, NYM, BOS, BAL. I have this feeling that the no trade clause might be a sticking point, but who knows - maybe with Wren in charge now, that policy will change.

Also I'm hoping that his fanily connection to the Atlanta area will work in our favor.

by VegasAces on Jan 7, 2008 3:43 PM EST up 0 recs

Tex on a

.306/.400/.585 35 HR, 135 RBI, 90 BB, 120 SO

Tex is going to have a monster year, but i dont know if I can go any higher than these predictions until he has a full year in the NL under his belt.

by MIZIKE74 on Jan 7, 2008 2:36 PM EST 0 recs

This post is a bit misinformed

Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is probably the best hitter's park in the AL, and probably the second or third best place to hit in MLB.

And why would players hit worse in the NL? It's well established that the AL is the better league right now. I guess you're looking at the fact that fewer runs are scored in the NL...but that's largely due to the DH, and not because the pitching is better.

by DwightSmithPinchHits on Jan 7, 2008 5:05 PM EST 0 recs

The "cavernous expanses"

Looking at the size of the ballpark doesn't tell you if it's a hitter's park. Coors, for example, is the biggest park in the league.

RBIA has a crazy jetstream in right center and extremely hot, dry summers, during which the ball flies.

Note ESPN's Park Factors list RBIA as a better hitter's park than Turner Field in 2007. And it's quite unusual for RBIA to be so low -- from 2002-2006 it was in the top six each year, so 07 was probably a fluke, perhaps due to a cooler-than-average summer.

by DwightSmithPinchHits on Jan 7, 2008 5:15 PM EST up 0 recs

I'll say...

.319/.396/.562, 35 HR, 148 RBI, 102 BB

Now, if these don't add up, please, please forgive me. Adjust as necessary on the percentages.

by secondbass on Jan 8, 2008 5:13 AM EST 0 recs

Tex is God!!!

I can't wait to see the Braves actually step up BEFORE the end of a year and give a long term contract to Tex... They'll do it because he's going to tear up the Grapefruit League and by May, he'll have his payday!

.337/.448/.595, 46 HR, 137 RBI, 104 BB, 125 K

Crosby The Anti-Gondeee

by crosby on Jan 10, 2008 3:11 PM EST 0 recs