Community Projection: Chipper Jones

by gondeee on Jan 24, 2008 10:26 AM EST in Community Projections Comment 32 comments

Not too many bad things you can say about this guy - even a Mets fan has to admit to that. We're starting to see what he can do while fully healthy with a decade-plus of professional experience under his belt. The last three years trend very well for Mr. Jones:

2005 - 109 G, .296/.412/.556
2006 - 110 G, .324/.409/.596
2007 - 134 G, .337/.425/.604

His four-year OPS line reads:

2004 - .847
2005 - .968
2006 - 1.005
2007 - 1.029

His performance the last few years has been way above his career average OPS of .949. Is this Chipper playing over his head, or is he establishing a new standard for himself in his mid-30's? He posted arguably the third-best all-around season of his career last year while almost winning a batting title. The scary (or exciting) thing to think about is that with Mark Teixeira hitting behind him for a full season what kind of hitter can Chipper be?

I think Chipper is entering a post-outfield mid-30's renaissance in his career. He tasted what a batting title could be like last year and he'll be out to win it this year. Here is my prediction for Chipper in 2008:

.342/.437/.608 with 34 HR, 118 RBI, 89 BB, 82 SO in 152 games played

He's gotta be healthy this year - he's long overdue. While it's hard to avoid all types of injury -- and we hope Chipper won't find some new way to injure himself -- he's likely figured out by now how to condition himself properly so the "pulls" and "strains" that plagued him the last few years are less frequent. We know that a healthy Chipper is a key ingredient to an appearance for the Braves in the postseason. He knows the lineup and the rotation we're going to have next year are going to be the best the Braves have had in a long time, and he's going to do everything he can to stay in there. Expect big things from Chipper Jones in 2008.

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Pretty pumped...

...nothing gets me more excited than seeing Chip dig into the batters box. You're absolutely correct that he is the key ingredient to us winning, and I'm right there with you that he should be due for a healthy season.

Seems like the last couple years he would have been healthy if not for some freak injuries. Injuring his hands while jumping over the third baseman? Never seen that before. And I still cringe when I think of him trying to field the slow roller against the Giants a couple years ago...that wet grass...terrible sight.

I also think it's important to have him in the lineup with Tex for all of the season...just seems like if they build a chemistry maybe Tex would be more willing to stay. Probably just wishful thinking.

by Smoltzs Beard on Jan 24, 2008 1:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Health is the key..

...you're right freak injuries. I mean bruising your palms on a play at 3rd. That plagued him the rest of the year..at least it seems he's got his foot problems under control. Nothing would be better than seeing Chip play at the least 140 games this year...though I maybe wishing for too much.

by RainDelay on Jan 24, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chip

As a major Chipper fan pretty much his entire career I know how he can produce when healthy, or with a solid hitter like Tex behind him. My prediction for Chip this year is 315 avg, 25 hr, and 110 RBI, with a 420 OBP

He will play in no more than 140 games though b/c of his age even if he remains uninjured all season. I love Chip and whenever I hear Crazytrain before he gets up I am confident he can produce runs. We need Franceour to develop into the next Chip. He is certainly putting up similar numbers as Chip did when he started his career. We also need to RESIGN TEX. TEX TEX TEX is the key to the next 5-10 years of our well-endowed franchise.

by Pirates07 on Jan 24, 2008 3:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Exactly like my prediction.

Wow, your prediction is pretty much spot on with mine. I was typing mine as you posted yours, apparently, and they're eerily similar. Let's hope they pan out and are close to reality. I'm expecting another great year from Chipper, but some missed time due to some minor dings and bruises.

by drdonkeypunch on Jan 24, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chipper's Health

Chipper's not getting any younger, and while it'd be great to see him play 145+ games, I just don't see it happening. One or two stints on the DL during the middle of the season will have him ending up somewhere between 120 and 130 games. He'll still put up an OPS above .950, just because he has such incredible plate discipline and gets on base like it's going out of style. I'll make a more modest prediction for Chipper that looks something like this:

120 G / .315/.420/.560 with 28 HR/ 102 RBI/ 85 BB/ 70 SO.

by drdonkeypunch on Jan 24, 2008 3:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Chip and Tex show

Chipper staying healthy is ABSOLUTELY key. He doesnt need to be ironman, and since we have this young infield, it's not the worst idea in the world to let some others play 3b in case Chip needs a day or two. The bottom line with him is that every AB is scary for the other team, and NO ONE IS SAFE... Even watching Tex last year for a bit, and Andruw (in 05) and Big Mac in 06, when they were all torrid, doesnt compare to seeing Big Ol' Chip walking to the box. You can tell he's just sizing up the pitcher, willing them to throw anything in the zone.

With Tex behind him, oh boy, i'm scared for the opposition. Seriously, Chipper, your job this year should be two things:

Continue being the most consistent switch hitter in baseball.
Convince the OTHER best switch hitter to stay on the Braves for a chance at this next dynasty.

I'm so excited, i can barely contain myself.

by traphicg on Jan 24, 2008 4:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Three Year Splits

I'm going to hang my hat on what he's done over the last three seasons, putting up a line of .320/.415/.590. I'm not sure how the XBH breakdown there (33 2B, 2 3B and 25 HR?) or the exact BB/SO (>1) plus a handful of SB with a CS or two. Oh, 120 games sounds about right. Tex is our MVP at the plate in 2008, no doubt. Thoughts?

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Jan 24, 2008 4:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

good news

the Braves signed Soriano for 2 years

by jack dein on Jan 24, 2008 6:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Talking Chipper

I expect a monster year from Chipper. I'm going to go out on a big, sensationalist limb and boldly predict:

140 G / .333/.435/.587 with 36 HR/ 115 RBI/ 92 BB/ 82 SO.

Also, can we start to mention Chipper as one of the greatest 3rd baseman in history? He'll never rack up the awards like Schmidt did, but his career stats are getting awful close. 162 game averages:

Chipper is a 14 year avg
Schmidt is a 18 year avg

Chipper .307/.403/.546/33 HR/111 RBI/98BB-92SO
Schmidt .267/.380/.527/37 HR/107 RBI/102BB-127SO

My All-Time 3rd baseman goes in this order:

Brooks Robinson
Mike Schmidt
Chipper Jones

by jjhoosby on Jan 25, 2008 10:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

wow

I never thought of things like that on a large scale like that. Thats real scary.

by bigjoe on Jan 25, 2008 11:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no way Chipper is the third best third basemen

First of all, he's a terrible fielder.

Is he a HOF? Maybe, I'd argue yes, but it's too early to say. But third best third basemen ever? Nope.

by DwightSmithPinchHits on Jan 27, 2008 2:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Where do you get

that Chipper is a terrible third baseman?????? I personally think he is quite good....maybe not a Brooks Robinson, but he certainly holds his own and I think I remember some talk of him possibly winning a gold glove for his performance this past season. And he is definitely one of the best at charging a slow roller and throwing off balance to third. At least this is how I feel about his defensive game.

If you take a look at the stats from this season you will see that he was third in the National League in Fielding Percentage at .971 when the leader being slightly above him at .973, so I guess that makes everyone in the league besides the two guys in front of him "terrible fielders". And these terrible fielders would include the likes of Scott Rolen and the Gold Glove winner David Wright.

So please inform me on how he is a terrible fielder.

by whunt13 on Jan 27, 2008 2:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

off balance to first.....

excuse me

by whunt13 on Jan 27, 2008 2:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fielding Measures

Please never act like Fielding Percentage is an accurate measure of defensive ability.

From career numbers I can find, Chipper is at best an average 3B.

FRAR -13
FRAA -149
(both pretty bad totals)

Range Factor (since 2000) - league leader is 2nd number.
2000 2.66 3B 2.92
2001 2.14 3B 2.98
2002 1.85 LF 2.01
2003 1.48 LF 2.22
2004 2.64 3B 3.08
2004 1.40 LF 1.97
2005 2.70 3B 3.01
2006 2.67 3B 3.06
2007 2.50 3B 3.27

Not exactly stunning either.

by 17843 on Jan 27, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You had me...

..until you used FRAR and FRAA. Those are horribly flawed metrics, and not worth quoting IMO. Range Factor is a bit better.

But to be honest, there isn't a reliable defensive metric out there...though closest I've found is John Dewans +/-.

by RainDelay on Jan 27, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

It was ridiculously hard to find career (or even yearly) UZR, +/-, or even simple ZR (ESPN's site was acting up). So I went with what I had.

by 17843 on Jan 27, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Understandable...

by RainDelay on Jan 27, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't implying.....

that fielding percentage was the best barrometer of defensive ability, I just quickly looked up a stat to show that he is not terrible on defense like DwightSmithPinchHits implied. I know Chipper's defense isn't as good as Scott Rolen or David Wright, but I do beleive that fielding percentage does carry some weight in measuring a players defense because the higher the percentage means the player more frequently catches the ball and throws the guy out when it is hit to him as opposed to making an error.

And yes, I will agree that over his career Chipper has been an average third baseman on defense, but average is certainly not "terrible" as DwightSmithPinchHits said. And another thing is that Chipper has gotten better with age at defense over at 3rd Base, if you listen to the games you frequently here the commentators talking about how Bobby Cox says Chipper is playing a better 3rd base now than when he played it before he was moved to left field. So regardless of his past numbers which show he is average, he has gotten better on defense and was pretty dang good last year. So my point in the whole matter is that he wasn't a terrible fielder and I think anyone that watched the him last season would have to agree.

by whunt13 on Jan 27, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I've...

..watched Chipper play his entire career. He was a horrible short stop, his 3rd base skills are ok..better than they have in recent years when you could've put a cardboard cut out at third and had more range than Chipper.

His move to Left Field and then back to the infield has helped IMO. At least to my eye's, he's gotten a tad better at 3rd. But he's no Adrian Beltre (one of the best IMO at 3rd defensively in either league.)

by RainDelay on Jan 27, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I'm not saying Chipper has the greatest range, all I was trying to say is that he is not a "terrible" fielder as Dwightsmithpinchhits said. I know Chipper isn't the best or even close to it, but I would certainly take him at third base over a lot of guys. And I agree with you about Adrian Beltre, he doesn't get much press for his glove because of the team he plays on. But he certainly should be spoken in the same breath with the best defensive third basemen.

by whunt13 on Jan 27, 2008 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

HOF

How can this even be a question. His defense isn't bad (not very good either, but avg). And offensively his career OPS+ would be tied with Eddie Matthews as the second best 3B in the Hall (behind Schmidt 143 to 147). Couple that with low SO numbers and decent results on the basepaths and I can't see a reason for keeping him out.

He won't get the raw counting stats, and his all-star appearances are low, but he has won a MVP and should retire with lifetime numbers of better than .300 BA, 450 HR, and 1500 RBI and Runs. That's pretty sweet for a 3B.

by B Agate on Jan 27, 2008 5:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chipper as defender

Several years ago, I would have agreed that Chipper was a terrible defensive third baseman, and there were enough key blown plays in those days to defend that point of view. However, Chipper is a better third baseman today than he has ever been. He actually had his best defensive season in 2007, and I no longer believe that level of criticism is warranted. Chipper will never be Brooks Robinson, but he has cut down a lot on bad plays at the hot corner, and he is actually pretty solid now as a result of better consistency.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Jan 27, 2008 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ZIPS are out

Braves 2008 ZIPS are out at Baseball Think Factory.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jan 26, 2008 2:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Big Year

140+ G / .326 with 32 HR/ 145 RBI (lots of guys on base....)

by secondbass on Jan 26, 2008 7:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reality

On April 24, Chipper will be 36 years old. If he is healthy, Chipper will be productive in the middle of the Braves lineup because he is one of the best instinctive hitters in the game. As always, Chipper's performance will largely depend on the health of his legs and feet.

A case can actually be made that Chipper is still improving and becoming more polished as a major league player. 2007 was one of his best seasons as a defensive infielder. Chipper is a .307 lifetime ML hitter who hits a HR about every 18 ABs. In 2007, he hit .337 with 29 HRs and 102 RBIs in 513 ABs, which was one of the best offensive seasons of his career. I would look for similar numbers in 2008 (but perhaps closer to his lifetime BA) if he is relatively healthy.

Here are Chipper's most recent participation stats:

2007....134 games, 513 ABs

2006....110 games, 411 ABs

2005....109 games, 358 ABs

2004....137 games, 472 ABs

2003....153 games, 555 ABs

Clearly, his production fell off in 2005 and 2006 due to leg and foot injuries. Despite injuring his hands early in 2007, he managed to get 500 ABs for the first time since 2003. It will be interesting to see if he can log 500 ABs in 2008. Obviously, the Braves will be a much better offensive team with Chipper playing 3b than with Omar Infante or Martin Prado at the hot corner.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Jan 26, 2008 9:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Chipper!

Chipper is the man! Good post though. Nice research and such.

by Matt L. on Jan 27, 2008 1:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Okay

"He's gotta be healthy this year - he's long overdue."

This is a joke, right? No one is "overdue" on being healthy. There is a trend of Chipper getting hurt. It will likely, but not certainly, continue this season. He isn't getting younger.

The scary (or exciting) thing to think about is that with Mark Teixeira hitting behind him for a full season what kind of hitter can Chipper be?

There's zero proof this will actually help Chipper. Sure, it'll boost his runs scored and RBI. But it won't affect his rate stats.

by DwightSmithPinchHits on Jan 27, 2008 2:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Chipper

"There's zero proof this will actually help Chipper. Sure, it'll boost his runs scored and RBI. But it won't affect his rate stats."

I agree with that. There is a widely-held notion that having a great hitter batting behind you in the line-up means that you will see better pitches. This makes empirical sense, but no effect has ever been statistically proven. If we were to ask Chipper what it means to have Teixeira batting fourth behind him, I'm sure he would say it helps, and I'm sure that would be an honest opinion. But OTOH, Chipper has been a great hitter throughout his long career....regardless of who hits behind him in the Braves line-up....because he has a great eye for the strike zone and no major holes in his swing from either side. Those qualities are more important.

There is little doubt that the health of Chipper's legs and feet will determine the extent of his contribution in 2008. In 2007, Chipper posted 500 ABs for the first time since 2003. For the Braves to be successful, it is important for him to do it again in 2008. I don't have a crystal ball, so I don't know if he can do it again at 36 years old. But I was encouraged by the fact that Chipper played regularly in August and September.

That being said, this franchise has been unable to develop an heir-apparent for Chipper at 3b. To some extent, this is moot because of Chipper's long term contractual relationship and icon status with the club. But it would be optimal to have someone better than Peter Orr, Chris Woodward, or Martin Prado available at 3b when Chipper is not available. I won't pass judgment on Omar Infante, but it's not good that ad he will miss ST.

Mark DeRosa bombed in the hot corner role. Andy Marte was traded for Edgar Renteria, and Marte's subsequent performance in the Cleveland organization has exposed him as an AAAA type prospect anyway. Wilson Betemit was shipped away for Baez and Aybar. Aybar got 115 ABs as a Brave before going to detox. Eric Campbell has been injured and in trouble for most of the last two years. Von Pope regressed badly in 2007 at Mississippi. The current 3b heir-apparent (according to BA) is 2007 second round draft choice Jon Gilmore, who looks like a terrific prospect but has never played above rookie ball.

I guess my point is that the Braves fell out of contention in 2006 when Chipper went on the DL. If he goes on the DL for any extended period of time in 2008, they will fall out of contention again unless Teixeira, Francoeur, and McCann can carry the load in the middle of the batting order. As the other poster pointed out, Chipper isn't getting any younger, so the Braves must develop a viable alternative to play 3b when Chipper isn't available. In the best case scenario, Gilmore won't be ready for at least three years. In the meantime, someone will get a lot of ABs subbing for Chipper.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Jan 27, 2008 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not like...

...he gets bit by the average injury bug. You've gotta admit he's been put on the shelf because of some bizarre scenarios.

by Smoltzs Beard on Jan 28, 2008 9:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

It's not like his injuries have come from HBP's or running into walls. He's had pretty standard injuries from an older player. Nothing debilitating, but we can reasonably infer that he will get hurt at some point in 2008. After all, 2007 was his healthiest year in some time, and he still missed time.

by DwightSmithPinchHits on Jan 28, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well....

.....I think taking a swing and landing on the DL is not a very common thing, is it? The oblique strain thing - how many times has he done that - twice? And he fell on his hands during a not so normal play at third and got shelved. And he's got the bunion thing going on.
I don't know of any players, older or otherwise, who have that medical stat sheet!

by secondbass on Jan 28, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I already mentioned...

...the two injuries that put him on the self the longest in recent memory. If the Giants had actually irrigated their field properly (or called the game off entirely) in '05 he wouldn't have slipped and injured his leg/ankle.

Please let me know the next time someone tries to vault over the 3rd baseman and injuries both his palms. It may have been ill-advised on #10's part...but it's not like that is commonplace in baseball. That shit just doesn't happen.

And you respond with HBP? Are you serious? Seems like every year there is someone who breaks a bone in there hand because of that. Seriously? You need to watch more baseball.

by Smoltzs Beard on Jan 29, 2008 10:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs