Community Projection: Kelly Johnson

by gondeee on Jan 22, 2008 9:43 AM EST in Community Projections Comment 20 comments

Second base might be one of the biggest make or break positions for the Braves next year. There's a potential for improved performance from last year, but there is also the possibility that it could become an offensive black hole for the team. Can Kelly Johnson repeat his performance of last year? Will his penchant for hot streaks and long slumps be amplified or exploited by NL pitchers? Will his defense be what our ground ball pitching staff needs it to be?

Part of what he will do in 2008 may depend on where in the batting order he's hitting. No matter where he hits he does a great job of getting on base, so if he leads off we can rest assured that we have someone who puts up a good OBP. His leadoff OBP was .372 last year; even while he only hit .268 out of the leadoff spot. He actually seemed to struggle the most while batting second, compiling only a .244 batting average (still had a .350 OBP). He was most comfortable while hitting seventh. In 61 at-bats in the seventh-hole KJ hit .377 with a .457 OBP. Now, this could have come during one of his "hot streaks." On the other hand the hot streak could have been a product of his comfort with that spot in the batting order.

I think if we hit him either lead-off or seventh we'll get good production from him. Here is my prediction for KJ in 2008:

.289/.391/.480 with 18 HR, 72 RBI, 88 BB, 112 SO.

I expect and hope that he will improve his all-around game no matter where he hits. He seems to be a very smart ball player who listens to his coaches and veteran players and that should help him weather his slumps. His easy stroke and smooth hitting mechanics should also help reduce his slump tendencies as he gets more experience.

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I'm guessing more power from Kelly

.275/ 24 HR, 75 RBI, 75 BB, 140 SO, and I'll throw in 15 SB

by secondbass on Jan 22, 2008 11:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Prediction, and plenty of exegesis

I think/pray Johnson will hit first or second for Cox, find himself in the lineup everyday (thanks to improved defense coupled with his offensive potential), and play in at least 150-155 games. Some of the counting statistics involved in my prognostication would necessarily reduce were Johnson not to meet his predicted plate-appearance total.

677 PA / 574 AB
168 H / 98 BB / 5 HBP / 122 K

66 XBH / 288 TB
34 2B / 10 3B / 22 HR

.293 / .400 / .502

On the surface, it may seem overly optimistic; however, I think - especially considering Johnson's age and major-league experience - that each predicted value has some merit.

First, 98 BB would represent only 10 more walks than Johnson's 2007 walk-rate extrapolated over 677 PA (88 BB); I believe it's neither ignorant nor extravagant to expect Johnson's walk-rate to improve sufficiently to gain him ten additional walks in 2008 -- he must reach base on balls 1.5% more than he did last year (from 13.0% to 14.5%).

Secondly, the additional BBs will have a superficial effect on his BA: supplementing his AVG by .005 thanks to the relative reduction in his AB total (compared to the total if he were to maintain his 2007 walk-rate), those walks "elevate" his AVG from .288 to .293. Therefore, in actuality the predicted .293 AVG only mandates his hitting .012 higher, provided his walk-rate also improves; this seems very possible, considering that in 2008 I expect him to produce a BAbip closer to his first-half split (.336 BAbip, .287 AVG in 350 PA) than his second-half numbers (.317 BAbip, .262 AVG in 258 PA). More than just a hope, I think his production was depressed by specific and attributable fatigue -- a result of (a) the 608 PAs Johnson accrued in 2007 being 100 more than any other season in his career, which moreover was exacerbated by (b) having spent the nearly the entire previous season (2006) rehabilitating a surgically-repaired elbow.

But, if Johnson is able to sustain the level of hitting he displayed during the first 58% of 2007 (.336 BAbip, .287 AVG) for an entire season, he should be able to add a minimum of .010 to his 2007 AVG; I predicted 168 H, a figure which represents 10 more hits than would manifest if he continued to hit .276 over the course of his predicted 574 AB next year, and which - along with ten additional walks - would lead to a .293/.400 line.

In the context of these incremental improvements, the ascent of his SLG seems less dramatic and more reasonable: as with AVG, the ten additional walks (or, rather, ten fewer ABs manifested by an improved walk-rate) would superficially "elevate" Johnson's SLG by .007 (from .493 to .500); conversely, ten additional hits increases the numerator of the SLG equation - the extent to which this figure is increased, however, depends on the distribution of those hits amongst the four possibilities.

The reasoning for my selected distribution follows: If Johnson merely replicates his 2007 power-output in 574 AB, he would produce 262 TB; following a 2007 distribution ratio, this sum would include 100 1B, 30 2B, 10 3B, 18 HR. Independent of distribution, ten additional hits must add at least ten bases to that figure (272 TB); furthermore, if those ten hits possess the same (2007) distribution ratio, Johnson would secure 279 TB (106 1B, 32 2B, 11 3B, 19 HR) and a .486 SLG. At this point, I personally choose to be a little arbitrary - or, perhaps, intuitive - and surmise that one of those predicted triples, as well as two of the doubles, will turn into HR, while also prevising that four of Johnson's predicted singles will end up doubles. The result: an additional 10 H comprised of 2 1B, 4 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, and no impossible feat.

So: a lot of text has been spent in order to illustrate how productive Johnson could be - or, rather, how near he is already to elite-echelon offensive production. While not insignificant, ten walks- and ten hits-worth of improvement in Johnson's walk- and hit-rate is not an unimaginable development for a 26 year-old with his offensive skill-set and amount of major-league experience; moreover, such an improvement could effect tremendous (and very positive) repercussions in his production (as measured by our metrics). A component of each improvement, I believe, will come from a slight reduction in his K-rate: I've predicted 122 K (21%), which would represent a very manageable eight fewer strike-outs than his 2007 rate would predict (130 K, or 23%). As stated, a consistent .330-.340 BAbip is also crucial for the type of offensive leap I envision for Johnson. Nonetheless, a complex of incremental progressions in aspects of offensive production is enough to propel his total offensive game into a new level - especially considering the extent to which he is currently underrated.

All of which underscores the centrality of Kelly Johnson to Atlanta's success over the next five (to ten) seasons: even more than Francoeur, I think locking Johnson into a multi-year deal early in his career in imperative for the Braves' offensive (and defensive) fate.

by jpx7 on Jan 22, 2008 2:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

wow

very well put.

by slinkyb on Jan 22, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kelly Johnson

Very well put, sir. I feel pretty much the same way. A lot of Braves fans don't realize how lucky we are to have Kelly at the 2B position. He's a very good offensive player at a position that is usually an offensive black hole. His plate discipline is second to only Chipper's for the Braves, and having a 1-3 of Kelly-Yunel-Chipper would provide lots of RISP opportunities for Tex, McCann, and Francoeur.

Those are good predictions for Kelly's improvement, as this will be his third year in the league, so he'll be more comfortable and hopefully more stable at the plate. The extremely valuable thing about him is that, even when he's hitting for a low average, he's still getting on base because of his excellent plate discipline. This is amazingly valuable, much more so than someone who hits for an empty batting average, like Juan Pierre. I think having Kelly playing consistently for 150-155 games will have a great impact on his abilities, especially considering he's just starting to enter his theoretical peak years.

by drdonkeypunch on Jan 22, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:Prediction, and plenty of exegesis

did you write that all yourself, or if you got it from a website, what site did you get it from?

by lunatic96 on Jan 22, 2008 3:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I wrote it

Got it from the website of my brain.

by jpx7 on Jan 22, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kelly Johnson

I am going to be optimistic and say .285 20 80 10 with 85 walks and 100 ks. I agree that Kelly Johnson is a little bit of an underrated player for the Braves.

If you were to poll most of the fans in the league and tell them that you are going to give him a young middle infilder that would hit .276/.375 with 16 HRs at the age of 25 they would be thrilled. However, for whatever reason Braves fans seemed to see him as an afterthought rather then then 3rd piece to the recent youth movement (to go along with McCann and Franceour.

I personally think he suffered by not playing every day in the 2nd half. There is no reason to platton Kelly. His LH/RH splits are minimal (.272/.366 against LHP and .278/.378 against RHP). I also think that his OBP makes him attractive as a leadoff hitter for the Braves but really he is a developing #3 or5/6 hitter. Kelly will grow into a middle of the order bat.

Now do I think he is destined for a long term career at 2B? Probably not. I think he will get better this year and will be a slightly better then average 2B. However, the question was recently asked who is the heir apparent to Chipper at 3B; I would argue that Kelly Johnson is the 3B of the future for the Braves. He is better equipped to play 3B and I believe he would become a better then average 3B where I think he may become an average 2B.

That begs a totally unrelated question: When does Chipper move to 1B? In two years? If you assume that a move to 1B eventually has to happen for Chipper to remain a brave beyond the next 2 years; do you really want to resign Tex to a long term deal? Don't get me wrong; I think Chipper is fine at 3B right now. However, he will be 36 this year? Can you reasonably expect him to play a good 3B at 38 or 39? If he can't do the Braves let him go or give him the opportunity to continue his career for a couple more years at 1B?

by calbers on Jan 22, 2008 9:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm.....

.....interesting forseeing Kelly at third - that would not be a bad idea at all, especially considering the middle infield depth we have in the minors.

I wonder if Kelly missing 2006 with surgery kind of took him off the radar with many fans. I remember having a difficult time trying to figure out who would be the LF of the future, Johnson or Langerhans, and then Kelly was gone. And then so was Langerhans!

by secondbass on Jan 23, 2008 5:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Injury, with respect to radar

I think that is exactly the case -- I had huge hopes for Johnson after his 2005 season, considering his minor-league career; in 100 PA during June 2005, Johnson produced to a .267/.370/.465 tune and then, after struggling mightily throughout July (.212/.282/.354), he responded with .282/.378/.423 production in 90 August PA (and a .780 OPS overall in the 110 PA that followed July). This sort of first-year offensive production - buttressed by Johnson's .281/.364/.464 career-line in 2425 minor-league PA, along with his offensive output in Richmond before being promoted to Atlanta in 2005 (1.019 OPS across 192 PA) - rendered manifest the potential Johnson had always possessed as a former first-round draft choice, but which remained dubious at best until his minor-league breakout of 2004 (.282/.348/.468 in 528 PA with Greenville).

In other words, Johnson went through a significant adjustment to the major leagues in 2005, and was primed for a breakout 2006 -- his minor league track-record thoroughly supported this supposition, and his 2005 splits supplied even more meaningful and reliable data to the projection. However, in a scenario somewhat analogous to Chipper's lost 1994 season, Johnson's consistent assertion of his talent was delayed; indeed, while Johnson had skeptics aplenty prior to the injury, he failed to even be noticed as a potential major-league contributor after rupturing his elbow ligaments.

Nonetheless, this slight retardation of his ascent and ascendancy allowed him to be recast as an offensively-elite second baseman, with the youth and athleticism to permit - potentially - above-average infield defense. Had he secured the LF position in 2006, with Marcus Giles still the four-spot on the diamond, he might have continued to be viewed as merely an offensively-capable left-fielder. Moreover, the progress he showed during his 2005 audition, coupled with the sustained higher level of success he displayed in 2007, evinces my somewhat-rosy projection for Johnson's future; the fact that these two distinctly positive developments in his game (the offensive improvements of 2005 and 2007) were separated by nearly a year of inactivity only adds confidence to the evidence.

by jpx7 on Jan 23, 2008 7:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

Chipper only plays about 3 more years, or less if he's constantly injured... and he should be able to manage at 3B that long. I thought that last year was the time to move Chipper to 1B, but Bobby Cox seems to think that his feet would be better off playing at 3B.

Does Kelly Johnson have the arm to play on the left side of the infield?

by kray1000 on Jan 23, 2008 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kelly's Arm

He DID have the arm to handle the Left side. He game up as a SS originally and they had playing some 3B back in 03/04 I think. I saw him play a little SS here in Greenville and his arm looked fine. I think it was always more a question of range.

That being said; I don't know how his arm is doing following the surgery.

by calbers on Jan 24, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll tell you one thing...

...his arm always looks great when he's the middle man on Francoeur's frozen ropes to McCann.

by Smoltzs Beard on Jan 24, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think

Chipper will remain at 3rd until he begins to deteriorate. When he does, I suspect he will have the class to hang em'up or take a backup role as a mentor to the heir (whoever that may be).

I dont think the Braves would jeapordize Tex if they were able to sign him long term by moving Chipper. Tex' production is enormous, he's younger, and already has a large fanbase in Atlanta. It just wouldnt make sense for Atlanta to consider that if they can resignt Tex - which I think they will. (You dont just give up half the farm and one of your leading hitters (Andruw) not to get something in return for the long run.)

by darthspiderman on Jan 22, 2008 10:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i'm not stupid, but...

"I think his production was depressed by specific and attributable fatigue -- a result of (a) the 608 PAs Johnson accrued in 2007 being 100 more than any other season in his career, which moreover was exacerbated by (b) having spent the nearly the entire previous season (2006) rehabilitating a surgically-repaired elbow."

so basically you think he was fatigued from a typical major league season being longer and the fact he was coming off of surgery? i hate when a blog becomes an "i'm smarter than you" contest. if you're that talented, fine, but to me it's just a matter of trying to impress. like i said, if that is your normal jargon, then i hope you don't take my "country-boy" post to offense.

by ryan c on Jan 23, 2008 4:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Fatigue

I don't know about all the fancy talk or calculations but I think kelly probably did get fatigued. You have always heard about kids coming from the minor leagues and running out of gas. If KJ got fatigued i would think it was just because he has never played that many games before. This year his season was probably 20+ more games longer then he has ever played before in his life. Combine that length with the schedule, and pressure and i think anyone would get tired.

by calbers on Jan 23, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What exactly is unreasonable about that assertion?

It's a data-supported trend. Players tend to struggle in their first full season and soon thereafter, when they're used to 450 PA's. It's more pronounced with pitchers, but not exclusive to them.

by DwightSmithPinchHits on Jan 27, 2008 2:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Braves Projections...

The Braves should be the next team to have their 2008 ZIPS Projections released. It should happen any day now. When they are released I will be using their ZIPS projections in my simulator to rank the NL East (winter rankings) teams. So far, I have done the NL West and Central divisions. This is the same simulator that correctly picked the Red Sox to win the 2007 World Series before the season started and was narrowly beat out by the Vegas Sports Books in picking weighted winners of each NL West game during the 2007 season (1.12%).

NL West - Winter Rankings
NL Central - Winter Rankings

vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jan 24, 2008 2:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

KJ

Is an OBP machine. He should bat leadoff. I think his SLG will drop some this year, but walk rates like that ain't fluky. He's a beast.

by DwightSmithPinchHits on Jan 27, 2008 2:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

KJ is an OBP machine. He had a ton of walks last year and not to mention it seemed like when he didn't walk he was still in a 3 ball count. Also, I think KJ would have had a bunch more walks had he been in the lead off spot all year because he clearly wasn't as selective when he wasn't batting lead off. He was far more aggressive when he was in the 2 or 8 hole. At least that is the way it appeared to me.

by whunt13 on Jan 27, 2008 2:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lead-off

I'd agree it seems that way - and I certainly agree Johnson should be in one of the first two spots in the line, so as to accrue a greater percentage of the teams' PAs; however, Johnson actually had a marginally better walk-rate batting second.

Here are Johnson's 2007 walk-rate splits, for all lineup positions at which Johnson appeared more than forty times:

13.69% (49 BB, 358 PA) in the first-spot
13.73% (14 BB, 102 PA)in the second-spot
11.43% (8 BB, 70 PA) in the seventh-spot
9.30% (4 BB, 43 PA) in the eighth-spot

And his production-lines from those respective spots:

.268/.372/.441
.244/.350/.419
.377/.457/.689
.297/.372/.378

Of course, lead-off batting predominates Johnson's 2007 sample, but in each of the 100+ samples, Johnson neared a 14% walk-rate; moreover, I'd be reticent to draw any firm conclusion(s) from these splits, other than Johnson's being an excellent candidate to receive plenteous PAs thanks to his plate-disciple and dependably-high walk-rate.

As for a decline in Johnson's power-production, I see no concrete evidence that should cause one to suspect or anticipate a regression in that area. To track his career SLG production thus far, I'll use some simple metrics to express his power-potential:

2006
0.344 bases-per-PA (115 TB, 334 PA; .156 isoSLG)

2007
0.392 bases-per-PA (238 TB, 608 PA; .181 isoSLG)

Minor-League Career
0.410 bases-per-PA (993 TB, 2425 PA; .183 isoSLG)

So, even if he simply regresses to his minor-league production, he should be able to improve upon his .457 SLG (.181 isoSLG) in 2007. Considering he will be entering his age-26 season, with 942 major-league PA and another year in the major-league weight-room under his belt, I don't think it unreasonable to expect even further gains in power -- hence, my prediction of a .502 SLG (.209 isoSLG; 0.435 bases-per-PA).

For reference: Chipper Jones, over his minor-league career, produced for 0.455 bases-per-PA (539 TB, 1184 PA; .181 isoSLG); in his major-league career, he's been good for .463 bases-per-PA (3768 TB, 8143 PA; .239 isoSLG); and, throughout 2007, added 0.517 bases-per-PA (310 TB, 600 PA; .267 isoSLG) to the Atlanta cause.

I don't expect Johnson to ever ascend to Chipper's level of power-production, but he is an instructive model for a player who - like Kelly Johnson - has a fundamentally sound plate-approach, excellent walk-rates, and good BAbip-ability. Like Chipper, I think Johnson can improve his power-production with additional major-league PAs; as he enters his peak-age seasons, I'd say he has a reasonable ceiling of ~.450 bases-per-PA, but is more likely to have a productive apogee around my 2008 prediction: ~.430 bases-per-PA, ~.200 isoSLG, or ~.500 SLG.

by jpx7 on Jan 28, 2008 1:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs