Kotsay it Ain't So

Kotsay's numbers have been subpar the last three years.  Yes he was injured last year and that is why his numbers were down, but he isn't likely to be 100% again at his age with his back.  Yes his defense is consdered pretty good but I would bet that Anderson or Blanco would have been fine in CF defensively and with our CF likely batting #8 the offense is a secondary concern.

As for Kotsay leading off...with his OBP the last three years it is like having Andruw Jones leading off.  You don't have a guy with an OBP of .312 leading off.

If we were that concerned with CF why didn't we just sign Cameron.  The brewers got him for a 1 yr deal with a club option for a 2nd year. If you include the buyout for '09 the package would have been less then 7 mil a year.  I would rather have done that then just give a way a first round pick like devine. His minor league numbers looked good.  His earlier failures were largely the result of mismanagement.

Am I the only one who is lookign at our bullpen and thinking it is still a little suspect?  The only givens we have right now are Soriano, Moylan, and Ohman. (Assuming Moylan's arm hasn't fallen off from the overwork last year).  Yes Yates can look good a times....yes Acosta has a great arm (but major control issues...yes Gonzalez MAY be back sometime next year. All in all that is more maybes then certainities.  We shouldn't be trading away promising yound relievers right now.

IMHO, I think we got screwed on this one.

What is the point?

If all the Braves fans had terminal illnesses I could see making deals like this.

Is there a meteor headed for Earth we don't know about?

Joey Devine is 24, had a 1.08 ERA in his short visit to the Braves in 2007, had 13 K's per 9 IPs in AA, and a 1.64 ERA in AAA. He only gave up two homers total all year in three stops. People have bad memories of his bad October rookie age 21 draft year where he started pitching college ball in February. Forget it, he has.

Kotsay is a one year fix, and IF he back woes are over and he does well, so what, he's a free agent, we'll get nothing for him, and we've got two top prospects behind him. This is complete total short term thinking.

There will be a 2009.

I think Frank Wren has been watching too many Al Gore films.

And no scott it doesn't make it one damn bit easier to swallow.

To tell you the truth, I don't like this trade, and I will explain why.  But, first, I will suggest an explanation for why the Braves are doing this.  I believe Frank Wren and the Braves' brass look at this trade in the following perspective.

First, they want to trade from a position of strength to fortify a position of weakness.

The Braves control Rafael Soriano for one more season, and have already designated him as their closer.  Peter Moylan, who had a breakthrough 2007 season, gets righthanded hitters out as well as anyone.  Manny Acosta has major league upside, and will make the Braves' 2008 roster.  Blaine Boyer is out of options, and they want him to make their staff.  They still control Tyler Yates, who is not a fan favorite but IS a Cox favorite.  Plus, they know Phil Stockman can help them if he is he is healthy.  There you have five righthanded relief pitchers.  The Braves are also prepared to take serious looks at Jeff Bennett, Zack Schreiber, and Chris Resop.  

Now, I'm not suggesting Resop or Yates have the kind of stuff Devine has.  (They don't.)  But it has become clear that the Braves like Acosta better than they like Devine.   The problem with this is that Acosta has not shown that he can get lefthanded hitters out.  

Of course, Devine hasn't shown the capability to get major league lefthanded hitters out, either.  And Devine also has a history of back problems.  So from Wren's point of view, he is moving Devine while Devine is attractive, i.e., before his back flares up again.

Bottom line....it remains to be seen whether Devine will ever have the make-up and command of a major league closer, and he hasn't shown the ability to get lefthanded hitters out.  The Braves don't need a closer at the present time, and they obviously like Acosta, Boyer, and Stockman better than they like Devine for the future.  

Meanwhile, I think this trade shows that Frank Wren is absolutely desparate for a center fielder with major league experience.  Josh Anderson has 67 major league ABs, while Gregor Blanco has zero major league experience and does not enjoy the confidence of the Braves' brass.  Jordan Shafer may be the golden boy of the future, but the 21 year old Shafer has never had an AB above A-ball.  Wren and his inner circle have taken a good, long look at Shafer, and they just aren't prpared to throw the kid to the wolves yet.  (And that is probably wise.)  Wren tried to get Coco Crisp and Melky Cabrera, but the price was way too high.  

Mark Kotsay has been a top tier major league center fielder as recently as 2005, and he is still only 32 years old.   Kotsay (when healthy) is one of the best defensive outfielders in major league baseball.  Moreover, the outlines of this tentative deal suggest the Braves will only be on the hook for $2-3 million of Kotsay's 2008 salary.  

So this deal is a gamble.  Frank Wren has rolled the dice here, because he is desparate for a center fielder.  If Kotsay can stay healthy, then the Braves can put a worthy major league center fielder with excellent defensive skills on the field in 2008, while saving Shafer for 2009, and giving the kid a season of experience in AA.  In order to acquire Kotsay, the Braves are giving up a 24 year old relief pitcher in whom Bobby Cox has no confidence.   They are also shipping out their 2005 first round draft choice, who has been a disappointment.  This is being done barely three months after they cut ties with Andruw Jones.  So for the organization, this is like turning a page from one chapter to the next.

I don't like this trade.  There is no way a doctor in Atlanta can perform a physical exam on Mark Kotsay in Atlanta this week and predict whether Kotsay will have back spasms next spring and summer.   The doctor can perform the standard evaluational maneuvers, such as straight leg raising, range of motion assessments, and symmetrical muscle strength assessment.  If he has concerns, he can order myograms, and so forth.    But there is no way the doctor can know whether Kotsay will have back spasms again under future conditions of intensive athletic activity.  Kotsay missed most of 2007 with back spasms, and people with that medical history generally tend to experience recurrence when subjected to the same physical stressors.  The Braves already have a tainted history in trading for injured players like Octavio Dotel and Mike Gonzalez.  That's the first reason I don't like the trade.

The other reason I don't like it is the Braves'  recent bullpen history.    I understand why the Braves don't have confidence in Devine, but OTOH they liked him when they drafted him #1 in 2005.  That tells you they like Devine's stuff, but not his make-up.  It tends to suggest they may still be worried about his back for the longer term.   However, the bullpen has tended to be a weakness for the Braves in recent years.  Rafael Soriano will be very difficult to re-sign after the 2008 season, and the Braves do not have an obvious replacement for Soriano inside their organization.  Even if Devine never develops the savvy and command of a closer, he could still become a major asset as a set-up man if the club is forced to trial Moylan in the closer role.  The Braves have control of Devine's contract for another five years at a bargain price.  Over that period of time, I think Devine is likely to become more valuable than Kotsay.  And there is a pretty good chance that could happen as early as 2008, if Kotsay's back spasms recur.

And even if Kotsay defies the odds and plays well in 2008, the Braves will be looking for a younger center fielder to eat into his role by July.  This just doesn't seem worth the price of a 24 year old relief pitcher with closer stuff.  Frankly, IMHO, Billy Beane is lucky another GM was willing to give up anything for Kotsay.  As always, JMO.

1. Kotsay at least has big league experience, a leg up on Blanco and Anderson
2. He's a good defensive outfielder.

1. Joey Devine was a stud in college and has been in the minors. He's been given close to zero shot at pitching in the majors and has had bad luck with injuries and the pyschological affects of those grand slams and walk off shot in 2005. He still can be a solid middle relief arm for a number of seasons, possibly better than that.
2. Mark Kotsay is solidly on the decline. His .314/.370/.459 line looked nice in 2004 at age 28, but those were unsurprisingly all a career highs in his peak year. Expecting him to rebound to that level at 32 is stupid. Hell, since that season he's played worse than his career averages in AVG/OBP/SLG.
3. His righty/lefty splits are identical so it's not like he can even be valuable in a platoon situation.
4. This trade would block any chance of a better alternative from emerging. Blanco was good enough at AAA and has been a stud in winter ball. He's done everything you can ask of him to win this job and is basically the only chance to get positive value out of CF in 2008. Kotsay blocks him (at least until another injury sidelines him in  June).