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Kotsay it Ain't So

The latest centerfield option du jour for the Braves is apparently the Oakland Athletics' Mark Kotsay. ESPN is reporting that sources say the Braves have reached a preliminary agreement to acquire Kotsay in exchange for Joey Devine. Oakland also sends a little over $5 million of the $7-plus million Kotsay is owed this year.

This is really one of those trades that has me thinking, "yuck." I'm not terribly excited about him, and I'm not happy surrendering Devine. Kotsay's career has been taking a turn in the wrong direction as these trends show:

Year OPS RC/G
2004 .829 6.5
2005 .746 4.6
2006 .718 4.2
2007 .575 2.7

Granted he was injured in 2007, so one would expect those stats to be off his career norms, but a closer look shows us that his 2005 and 2006 seasons were below his career average.

For whatever reason, baseball people have always thought of Mark Kotsay in a higher regard than his stats at the end of each year tell us. In looking at his fielding stats they don't really blow you away, but they're not terrible by any means. So maybe his ability as a centerfielder adds value to his overall package.

I find it interesting that Frank Wren let news of this possible trade slip out, or even if it came out of the Beane camp I find it interesting that Wren spoke to the fact that a trade was in the works. This is a bit of a different stance than the hard line stance of never talking about possible trades during the John Schuerholz era.

If we must find a silver lining it is that with Kotsay as opposed to Anderson or Blanco we would at least have a little bit more of a known quantity in the centerfield position, as well as someone with more power. Kotsay is also a player who will bring a lot of intensity when he steps on the field - something the Braves need more of on their team.

Losing Devine will anger plenty of fans, and it is a large gamble for a one-year rental of a centerfielder. I said above that I think this trade is kind of yucky, but perhaps it's one of those where we just have to trust the guy(s) making the decisions.

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bye bye joey
I liked Joey Devine, but we kinda gotta have a centerfield option this year to hold down the fort for Jordan Schafer or Gorkys Hernandez.

by cgilmo78 on Jan 12, 2008 9:29 PM EST   0 recs

MISTAKE
When we are in August and the pen is suffering and we are having to trade to get another bullpen arm...and devine is putting decent numbers with Oakland...and Kotsay is on the DL or released...I am going to be upset.

Kotsay's numbers have been subpar the last three years.  Yes he was injured last year and that is why his numbers were down, but he isn't likely to be 100% again at his age with his back.  Yes his defense is consdered pretty good but I would bet that Anderson or Blanco would have been fine in CF defensively and with our CF likely batting #8 the offense is a secondary concern.

As for Kotsay leading off...with his OBP the last three years it is like having Andruw Jones leading off.  You don't have a guy with an OBP of .312 leading off.

If we were that concerned with CF why didn't we just sign Cameron.  The brewers got him for a 1 yr deal with a club option for a 2nd year. If you include the buyout for '09 the package would have been less then 7 mil a year.  I would rather have done that then just give a way a first round pick like devine. His minor league numbers looked good.  His earlier failures were largely the result of mismanagement.

Am I the only one who is lookign at our bullpen and thinking it is still a little suspect?  The only givens we have right now are Soriano, Moylan, and Ohman. (Assuming Moylan's arm hasn't fallen off from the overwork last year).  Yes Yates can look good a times....yes Acosta has a great arm (but major control issues...yes Gonzalez MAY be back sometime next year. All in all that is more maybes then certainities.  We shouldn't be trading away promising yound relievers right now.

by calbers on Jan 12, 2008 9:31 PM EST   0 recs

mistake?
Why is it a mistake?  Why do you think Joey Devine will develop?  Devine was not really in the picture for pitching his year, and he is out of options, so it was get something while you could.

by cgilmo78 on Jan 12, 2008 9:43 PM EST   0 recs

Apprently we're in the minority
but I completely agree.  I have seen 20+ times in Mississippi in each of the tewo years he was there and he was always awesome...but he gets called up and is terrible every time.

He's always 96 mph from the side with a nasty slider and he continued playing well in AAA, but then he gets called up and disappoints.

No big loss...especially with the $$ we saved.

by themurph on Jan 12, 2008 10:17 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I'm with you guys too
Now I don't necessarily think Kotsay is the answer, but I have never been impressed with what Devine has displayed so I don't see this as a bad move.  To me Devine's stuff isn't overpowering, I mean he does have some good stuff I just don't see it as closer material and at best I thought his ceiling would have been as a set up man. I think a lot of people have been blinded by his college stats and all the hype when we drafted him.

So, basically to me I see it as a low risk move. You get a veteran guy who can provide leadership and play very solid defense, and possibly regain his form from a couple of years ago.  And all you have to pay him is a couple of million dollars, and give up a guy that probably wasn't in the plans to pitch this year and obviously wasn't seen as the future closer of this club by the powers that be or else he would have been off limits.  

by whunt13 on Jan 13, 2008 2:01 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I think
Devine is going to be a bust.  What from the guy so far says he is going to be good.  I saw him in the CWS when he was good and he put up bad numbers there.  He was bad in his MLB debut and he wasn't that good last year.

by jack dein on Jan 12, 2008 9:58 PM EST   0 recs

yep
i don't know why guys get time in the minors, if you can't perform in 19.2 innings of MLB time, especially if a third of them came in the same year you were drafted, you're going to be a bust... can't believe we got anyone to give up an actual experience major league player (tm) for him, let alone one who almost matched the average put up by our CF from last year

by abravesfan on Jan 12, 2008 10:22 PM EST   0 recs

Kotsay spot in the lineup
He's nice insurance in case KJ or Yunel struggles at the top of the order.  Hope he stays healthy.  I really have no problem with any of Wren's moves so far.  He saved a ton of money on this one today.  He could give us what LaRoche did at the plate in 05.  Doubles and some spare RBIs at the bottom of the order.  I hear he is a good "clubhouse guy"

Against righties:
Yunel
KJ
Chipper
Tex
McCann
Francoeur
Kotsay
B. Jones

Lefties:
Yunel
KJ
Chipper
Tex
Francoeur
Diaz
McCann
Kotsay

by themurph on Jan 12, 2008 10:23 PM EST   0 recs

You hope...
...Bobby will bat Kotsay at the bottom...not going to happen.  Bobby will put Kotsay at the leadoff spot.  I am predicting that right now!!!

by kc on Jan 13, 2008 12:53 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

kotsay will hit...
second, you heard it here first.
KJ
Kotsay
Chipper
Tex
Francoeur
McCann
Diaz
Escobar

by chipper4mvp10 on Jan 13, 2008 1:06 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

We passed on Patterson ...only to get
Kotsay...  ARGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

IMHO, I think we got screwed on this one.

by BC1898 on Jan 12, 2008 10:53 PM EST   0 recs

patterson?
Kotsay is a better option (when healthy) than kotsay

by cgilmo78 on Jan 12, 2008 11:05 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

errrr
kotsay > patterson

oops

by cgilmo78 on Jan 12, 2008 11:10 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Not aure about that
Patterson is an excellent defensive OF, and much younger. Plus he wouldn't have cost Devine.

by DwightSmithPinchHits on Jan 14, 2008 1:18 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Devine.
He was rushed when drafted in 2005, playing hurt in 2006 and shuttled back-and-forth from the minors to the majors and back in 2007.  Through it all, his professional record is largely impressive.

2.73 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 13.01 K/9 in 112.1 IP (93 G)

Look guys, he'll be 24 next year, he's got the stuff and the minor league track record.  Like it was said above, 19.2 random innings at the major league level are too small a sample to drive a conclussion.  My money's on him being the closer we all expected him to be sooner rather than later.

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by ejruiz on Jan 12, 2008 11:33 PM EST   0 recs

yep
I don't understand the "he was always horrible when he got called up" attitude. Yes, when he was colossally mishandled in 2005, he was horrible. But he was fine after the roster expansion in 2006, and looked good up here in 2007, when he seemed to have improved confidence after having a great year in the minors.

Good move by Billy Beane. I should have known he would be the one to realize Devy's potential and snatch him. He really got away with murder only giving up Kotsay, too.

by Velcro Vernacular on Jan 13, 2008 12:31 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

joey
joey is going to be fine. he's got great stuff and the makeup to succeed. I think oakland might be a better deal for him though. I think he'll get more opportunities there which makes me happy..

by bravos408 on Jan 14, 2008 1:06 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Kotsay.
Here's what I'm expecting from him: .265/.320/.380, negative worth on the basepaths and average defense in CF.  You know where I got that from?  Those are basically his numbers from over the last three years!  If we had signed him to a cheap, FA contract so he could COMPETE with Gregor Blanco (my personal favorite) and Josh Anderson (we traded for him for no apparent reason, so he deserves a shot) then it'd be OK.  That said, we gave up a top 5 prospect, a potential future closer, for the ghost of a once decent player.  I never wanted this guy and I hate what we eneded up giving up for him.  Terrible, just terrible...
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by ejruiz on Jan 12, 2008 11:39 PM EST   0 recs

I'm...
...in your camp.  Not happy about this one bit.

by Smoltzs Beard on Jan 12, 2008 11:42 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Wrong, wrong, wrong
You don't trade young pitching for a one year rental. Do the names Adam Wainwright and JD Drew mean nothing to these people?

What is the point?

If all the Braves fans had terminal illnesses I could see making deals like this.

Is there a meteor headed for Earth we don't know about?

Joey Devine is 24, had a 1.08 ERA in his short visit to the Braves in 2007, had 13 K's per 9 IPs in AA, and a 1.64 ERA in AAA. He only gave up two homers total all year in three stops. People have bad memories of his bad October rookie age 21 draft year where he started pitching college ball in February. Forget it, he has.

Kotsay is a one year fix, and IF he back woes are over and he does well, so what, he's a free agent, we'll get nothing for him, and we've got two top prospects behind him. This is complete total short term thinking.

There will be a 2009.

I think Frank Wren has been watching too many Al Gore films.

by JimK on Jan 13, 2008 12:21 AM EST   0 recs

Eh...
Drew had a monster year with the Braves in 2004. They went to the playoffs with him and got a draft pick when they didn't re-sign him.

I think they offered too much (read: more than they had to) at the time, but I think that was a good trade.

by DwightSmithPinchHits on Jan 14, 2008 1:21 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

fuck
This is so stupid. I hate Frank Wren so much right now. Why give up your CLOSER OF THE FUTURE for someone that you don't really need? This is so so so dumb. Kotsay isn't even good. Jesus Christ, lets hope he fails the physical.

by bigjoe on Jan 13, 2008 1:20 AM EST   0 recs

Another Perspective
First off, I want to be on the record as saying that I'm not completely satisfied with this trade. I'm not a general manager, and I don't have any experience running a professional baseball organization, but it just doesn't seem right to deal a young, talented pitcher with a huge upside for a one year rental of an aging outfielder with chronic back problems.

Now, I could be wrong...and I hope I am. Devine could be a flash in the pan; a kid who puts up great numbers in the minors, but never fulfills on his promise at the major league level. And Kotsay may be completely healthy, as he says he is, and provide Atlanta with decent offensive statistics, above average defense in center, and a positive clubhouse presence with a tireless hustle and work ethic. If that's the case, then he becomes the perfect player who allows the Braves to compete in the near future until Jordan Schafer is ready.

However, the alternative perspective I wanted to throw out there is this: just like the fans, I assume most general managers possess a good long term memory. And I'm almost positive that Billy Beane remembers a trade he made with the Braves a few years ago, in which he traded Tim Hudson for Charles Thomas, Juan Cruz, and Dan Meyer. Essentially, he dealt away one of his "Big Three" starters, a perennial Cy Young candidate, and in return, received an overachieving "fourth" outfielder, an erratic relief pitcher, and a possibly great, young lefty who turned out to be injury prone. I think we all thought at the time, and still to this day, that Schuerholz most definitely got the better end of that deal!

Fast forward three years, and once again Oakland is engaged in trade talks with Atlanta. If I were Billy Beane, knowing that the Braves are apparently desperate to add a veteran centerfielder to their roster, I am sure as hell gonna hold out for a great deal and make sure I don't get swindled again.

So, for the sake of having peace of mind, I find myself justifying this recent trade by combining it with the earlier one. Which would look like this: Tim Hudson and Mark Kotsay, for Joey Devine, Thomas, Cruz and Meyer. Now, isn't that easier to swallow?

~Scott

by ATLBraves4Life on Jan 13, 2008 3:05 AM EST   0 recs

Hindsight
Looking back, I think we all agree that trading for Tim Hudson turned out to be a monumental move for this team. I vaguely remembered reading an article shortly after the deal, which praised both Schuerholz and Beane and their shrewd roster maneuvering. I did a search and found Peter Gammon's take here.

I just wanted to point out an observation that I made after re-reading this article. I noticed how Gammons refers to both Dan Meyer and Jose Capellan as "superb young pitchers". And they certainly were at the time, two of our highest regarded prospects. We sent Capellan to Milwaukee in the Dan Kolb trade(a disaster I'd absolutely love to forget) and included Meyer in the Hudson deal as I alluded to earlier. Atlanta couldn't have made those deals without giving up what were thought to be can't miss pitching prospects.

Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on how you look at it, those guys never lived up to expectations; Capellan has changed teams a couple of times and Meyer ran into some major injury problems.

The Braves made a similar deal when they traded Adam Wainwright and Jason Marquis to St. Louis for J.D. Drew and Ray King. That also was a move engineered to be a one year rental until Jeff Francouer was ready to take over in right field. The jury is still out on Wainwright, but one could argue that he hasn't become the dominant pitcher most thought he would be.

My point is, as much as we currently think of and value Joey Devine, John Schuerholz and Frank Wren have a history of being excellent evaluators and dealing prospects when their trade value is at its peak. There is a possibility that Devine simply doesn't pan out into the stud "future closer" most of us think he could be. But if I have learned anything about the Braves, it is to trust the supreme brilliance of the man/men in the front office.

On another somewhat related issue, I was shocked to go back and read about the offer that Baltimore apparently had on the table for Tim Hudson. If Oakland had made that trade with the Orioles, which had Baltimore giving up Bedard, Maine, AND Penn, then we probably wouldn't be witnessing the current firesale and rebuilding effort the A's are going through right now!

~Scott

by ATLBraves4Life on Jan 13, 2008 3:43 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I must say....
....reading your take on this does remind me that the general way deals have worked out for us is that we get the better end these types of deals.....where who we send fizzles out and the guy we get has at least one brilliant season.  I know that doesn't ALWAYS happen, but looking back at Scheurholz's record, that's generally how things pan out.  If this deal turns out that way, then good for Wren (and us).  It's just hard to imagine Joey Devine being a bust.
Time will tell!

by secondbass on Jan 13, 2008 6:08 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

bigjoe rules ....lol
I couldn't agree with you more bigjoe, one bad trade after another.With Devine gone I would guess Wrens next trade will be Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez for some beat up injury prone old has been reliever for 2 or 3  months who will of course be a free agent at the end of '08.

And no scott it doesn't make it one damn bit easier to swallow.

by dixiedeans on Jan 13, 2008 4:15 AM EST   0 recs

The Braves' perspective on this trade
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3193556

To tell you the truth, I don't like this trade, and I will explain why.  But, first, I will suggest an explanation for why the Braves are doing this.  I believe Frank Wren and the Braves' brass look at this trade in the following perspective.

First, they want to trade from a position of strength to fortify a position of weakness.

The Braves control Rafael Soriano for one more season, and have already designated him as their closer.  Peter Moylan, who had a breakthrough 2007 season, gets righthanded hitters out as well as anyone.  Manny Acosta has major league upside, and will make the Braves' 2008 roster.  Blaine Boyer is out of options, and they want him to make their staff.  They still control Tyler Yates, who is not a fan favorite but IS a Cox favorite.  Plus, they know Phil Stockman can help them if he is he is healthy.  There you have five righthanded relief pitchers.  The Braves are also prepared to take serious looks at Jeff Bennett, Zack Schreiber, and Chris Resop.  

Now, I'm not suggesting Resop or Yates have the kind of stuff Devine has.  (They don't.)  But it has become clear that the Braves like Acosta better than they like Devine.   The problem with this is that Acosta has not shown that he can get lefthanded hitters out.  

Of course, Devine hasn't shown the capability to get major league lefthanded hitters out, either.  And Devine also has a history of back problems.  So from Wren's point of view, he is moving Devine while Devine is attractive, i.e., before his back flares up again.

Bottom line....it remains to be seen whether Devine will ever have the make-up and command of a major league closer, and he hasn't shown the ability to get lefthanded hitters out.  The Braves don't need a closer at the present time, and they obviously like Acosta, Boyer, and Stockman better than they like Devine for the future.  

Meanwhile, I think this trade shows that Frank Wren is absolutely desparate for a center fielder with major league experience.  Josh Anderson has 67 major league ABs, while Gregor Blanco has zero major league experience and does not enjoy the confidence of the Braves' brass.  Jordan Shafer may be the golden boy of the future, but the 21 year old Shafer has never had an AB above A-ball.  Wren and his inner circle have taken a good, long look at Shafer, and they just aren't prpared to throw the kid to the wolves yet.  (And that is probably wise.)  Wren tried to get Coco Crisp and Melky Cabrera, but the price was way too high.  

Mark Kotsay has been a top tier major league center fielder as recently as 2005, and he is still only 32 years old.   Kotsay (when healthy) is one of the best defensive outfielders in major league baseball.  Moreover, the outlines of this tentative deal suggest the Braves will only be on the hook for $2-3 million of Kotsay's 2008 salary.  

So this deal is a gamble.  Frank Wren has rolled the dice here, because he is desparate for a center fielder.  If Kotsay can stay healthy, then the Braves can put a worthy major league center fielder with excellent defensive skills on the field in 2008, while saving Shafer for 2009, and giving the kid a season of experience in AA.  In order to acquire Kotsay, the Braves are giving up a 24 year old relief pitcher in whom Bobby Cox has no confidence.   They are also shipping out their 2005 first round draft choice, who has been a disappointment.  This is being done barely three months after they cut ties with Andruw Jones.  So for the organization, this is like turning a page from one chapter to the next.

I don't like this trade.  There is no way a doctor in Atlanta can perform a physical exam on Mark Kotsay in Atlanta this week and predict whether Kotsay will have back spasms next spring and summer.   The doctor can perform the standard evaluational maneuvers, such as straight leg raising, range of motion assessments, and symmetrical muscle strength assessment.  If he has concerns, he can order myograms, and so forth.    But there is no way the doctor can know whether Kotsay will have back spasms again under future conditions of intensive athletic activity.  Kotsay missed most of 2007 with back spasms, and people with that medical history generally tend to experience recurrence when subjected to the same physical stressors.  The Braves already have a tainted history in trading for injured players like Octavio Dotel and Mike Gonzalez.  That's the first reason I don't like the trade.

The other reason I don't like it is the Braves'  recent bullpen history.    I understand why the Braves don't have confidence in Devine, but OTOH they liked him when they drafted him #1 in 2005.  That tells you they like Devine's stuff, but not his make-up.  It tends to suggest they may still be worried about his back for the longer term.   However, the bullpen has tended to be a weakness for the Braves in recent years.  Rafael Soriano will be very difficult to re-sign after the 2008 season, and the Braves do not have an obvious replacement for Soriano inside their organization.  Even if Devine never develops the savvy and command of a closer, he could still become a major asset as a set-up man if the club is forced to trial Moylan in the closer role.  The Braves have control of Devine's contract for another five years at a bargain price.  Over that period of time, I think Devine is likely to become more valuable than Kotsay.  And there is a pretty good chance that could happen as early as 2008, if Kotsay's back spasms recur.

And even if Kotsay defies the odds and plays well in 2008, the Braves will be looking for a younger center fielder to eat into his role by July.  This just doesn't seem worth the price of a 24 year old relief pitcher with closer stuff.  Frankly, IMHO, Billy Beane is lucky another GM was willing to give up anything for Kotsay.  As always, JMO.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Jan 13, 2008 10:02 AM EST   0 recs

Agreed.
Many things are being overlooked, here.  It's not Devine for Kotsay, but rather SIX YEARS of Devine for ONE YEAR (at best) of Kotsay.  It also means that Gregor Blanco - who I still believe is the best option for CF/8-hole - is burried behind two other guys who have the unfair advantage of being traded for.  We had depth in relief pitching (and you can argue we still do) but there's always atrition in the bullpen and we should know that better than most teams.  Like I said, Kotsay will have to play an important role in our winning the World Series in order for this trade to be worth while.
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by ejruiz on Jan 13, 2008 12:34 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Frank Wren Sucks
This was a really STUPID trade by Frank Wren. Last night when I saw this trade go by the espen score board thing, I felt like throwing a baseball at my new HD TV. Why would you trade a reliever that has at chance at being your teams closer for the future for a short term CF. Plus, Kotsay is very injury prone. Devine also made a major step up from his last couple of years in the minors and in the majors. I was finally starting to see Devine pitch with some confidents. This trade really weakens our bullpen. I was counting on Devine to have a impact on the Braves pen next season. I wasn't really sold on the pen with Devine to begin with. Now I really dont like it. Hopefully Kris Medlen and Si Ki Jung could move through AA and AAA fast so they can help out the Braves bullpen next season. Plus, I am not really sold on our starting rotation yet. Glavine is on the down part of his career so I dont know what he can give us. Hampton is probably going to get hurt again sooner or later. Jurrjens and Reyes are both young pitchers that are still trying to find a feel of being a quality and consistent major league pitcher. And James is only a two pitch pitcher with absolutely NO stamina. I like having Kotsay on our team. But that new GM overpaid for him. I really HATE this trade. We are going to have to fight this year in trying to get into the playoffs. We are going to have to make another trade befor the deadline to acquire another SP. I would say that we are probably the best team in the NL East by default. Mainly because the Mets and Phils really didn't do anything this offseason. If the Mets get Johan Santana then they will win the East division.
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by deewill23 on Jan 13, 2008 12:41 PM EST   0 recs

You may have been counting on Devine....
...but obviously no one in our front office was counting on him. Like I said in an earlier post, I don't know if Kotsay is the answer, but I sure don't see this as a bad trade.

Everyone keeps saying "Closer of the Future", but if anybody (Cox, JS, Wren, etc) thought this, then there is no way that Devine is traded for Kotsay.  So this says to me that Devine was seen as expendable and not seen as the "Closer of the Future" by our staff.

So we may have given up a guy that the Braves Staff feels like won't be more than a solid right handed releif pitcher, which are a dime a dozen.  Now we have traded for a guy in Kotsay, that does provide leadership, intensity, good defense, and hopefully a resemblance of his batting from a couple of years ago.  So, if Kotsay manages to stay relatively healthy and provide numbers similar to his season from a couple of years ago, that means we:

  1. Let Schafer get another year of development, which is huge because we could stunt his growth as a player by sending him up too early and he may turn out to be a bust because of it. This scenario would be way worse than losing Devine because good centerfielders are much harder to come by than a solid right handed releif pitcher.
  2. we may get a 1st round pick or a sandwich pick when Kotsay leaves and could use this pick to pick another "Closer of the Future"
  3. so, all we give up was a guy that the Braves Staff obviously didn't think had the make-up to be the "Closer of the Future", and someone that was out of options, so we may have had to give him up for nothing in the end anyway.
So, again I don't know if Kotsay is the answer, but I don't think Devine was all that either.  I see this as a low risk trade, and if Kotsay plays respectably and we get at least a sandwich pick when he leaves for free agency then we did alright in this trade.  And if somehow, Kotsay plays great, helps us get to the playoffs or World Series and nets us a first round pick when he leaves, then I think it will have been a fantastic trade.

by whunt13 on Jan 13, 2008 1:23 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

What???
You think we'll get compensation for Kotsay???  Are you serious?!  I'm going to go ahead and say this: I could care less what management thinks of Devine, the overwhelming majority of the stats and the scouts point to Joey being an above average reliever with closer potential.  One year of Kotsay is not worth six years of Devine, even if he goes back to the best he's down in the last three years!  This is a bad trade, period.  I hope I'm wrong, but right now, it's bad.  
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by ejruiz on Jan 13, 2008 3:33 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Read again
I did not say we would for sure get compensation for Kotsay, I said if he was healthy and played similar to what he had in the past, then we would get compensation.

I agree that it would be a bad trade if we don't get compensation because that means that Kotsay wasn't healthy and didn't do anything for us.  But if we do get compensation I say that it could be a good trade because we will get a top pick as compensation and we will have given Schaffer the extra seasoning he needs in the minors.

And your whole Devine for six years thing is a good point, but what if we have a good year from Kotsay, give Schaffer extra seasoning instead of rushing him to the majors and stunting his growth, and get a top pick as compensation that could lead to a good player that produces for the Braves in the future and have him for six or so years.  Then I would certainly say it is a good trade.  But I guess only time will tell.

by whunt13 on Jan 13, 2008 4:56 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

could we have gotten kotsay
for prado and blanco/anderson? that would have made a whole lot more sense. we gave up devine and now we have 2 capable outfielders in blanco and anderson that we will never use.

by mjm7du on Jan 13, 2008 1:25 PM EST   0 recs

Add insult to injury
MLBtraderumors.com is reporting that a Bay Area sports writer is saying we could possibly be also sending an additional A ball player.

by surge on Jan 13, 2008 2:08 PM EST   0 recs

Wren
Our "guy" hasn't given any reason to trust him, and this trade provides a lot of evidence against trusting him in the future.

Wren may have gone after a "proven commodity" with Kotsay, but since the beginning of 2005 all Kotsay has proven is that he is a non-contributor on offense.  I hate the idea of Josh Anderson starting in CF, or acquiring a large number of PAs for the Braves, but at least there's some mystery about him; with Kotsay, there is major-league evidence of his inabilities.

by jpx7 on Jan 13, 2008 3:21 PM EST   0 recs

MLBTR is also saying the deal is tentative
because of the physical on Monday (which is typical), but maybe with the extra time Wren can rethink this madness.

by mjm7du on Jan 13, 2008 3:34 PM EST   0 recs

Fuck
Reasons why this is a good trade:
  1. Kotsay at least has big league experience, a leg up on Blanco and Anderson
  2. He's a good defensive outfielder.
Reasons why this is a bad trade:
  1. Joey Devine was a stud in college and has been in the minors. He's been given close to zero shot at pitching in the majors and has had bad luck with injuries and the pyschological affects of those grand slams and walk off shot in 2005. He still can be a solid middle relief arm for a number of seasons, possibly better than that.
  2. Mark Kotsay is solidly on the decline. His .314/.370/.459 line looked nice in 2004 at age 28, but those were unsurprisingly all a career highs in his peak year. Expecting him to rebound to that level at 32 is stupid. Hell, since that season he's played worse than his career averages in AVG/OBP/SLG.
  3. His righty/lefty splits are identical so it's not like he can even be valuable in a platoon situation.
  4. This trade would block any chance of a better alternative from emerging. Blanco was good enough at AAA and has been a stud in winter ball. He's done everything you can ask of him to win this job and is basically the only chance to get positive value out of CF in 2008. Kotsay blocks him (at least until another injury sidelines him in  June).
And whoever brought up getting a draft pick, that's basically impossible short of an MVP like season when Kotsay spent last year either injured or posting a .214/.279/.296.

by 17843 on Jan 13, 2008 3:36 PM EST   0 recs

Why is compensation impossible
Compensation picks are based on a two year average, and yes if he had played the entire season last year and posted those numbers, it would be basically impossible.  But because he only played 50 games, if he has a good year this year he can certainly bring his averages up to a level that would allow for compensation.

Maybe not a type A free agent because he would certainly have to have an MVP type season for that to happen, but being a type B free agent is definitely not impossible.

by whunt13 on Jan 13, 2008 5:16 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

compensation is basically impossible
sure kotsay could do well and be a type B FA, but thats not enough to get a pick.  We would then have to offer arbitration (which we won't do as it will coming off a year he earned $7 million even though we aren't paying it all and we have young CF options) or else some other team would have to be stupid enough to sign him before the deadline for us offering arby (which no one will bc they know we will decline arby).

by abravesfan on Jan 13, 2008 5:22 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

true....
You are probably right, I didn't think of it that way. Good point.

by whunt13 on Jan 13, 2008 5:30 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

To make things even worse......
MLBTR is saying we could be throwing an A ball pitcher in the mix as well. To go along with wrens bad trade here we are probably giving up cole rohrbough too.

by atl14yrsschafer on Jan 13, 2008 4:32 PM EST   0 recs

WHAT?!
Rohrbough??!?! Oh god, kill me now.

by bigjoe on Jan 13, 2008 4:59 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Speculation.
Um, there is no indication that Cole Rohrbough will be the low minors prospect thrown in, even if there is one.  I sincerely doubt it would be him anyway.
Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Jan 13, 2008 5:30 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Terrible Trade
I sure hope Kotsay fails the physical. He's an injury prone CF who plays below replacement-level. There's no reason to give up any players for him, let alone the best relief prospect in the system. Taking him off the A's hands for free would be a favor to them. The only thing this trade would accomplish would be to insert a gigantic offensive black hole into an otherwise solid lineup. Blanco could do a better job while getting paid league minimum, and wouldn't cost a good relief prospect and an A-baller in the process. There's obviously a reason Wren was fired after just one year as the O's GM.

by drdonkeypunch on Jan 13, 2008 5:21 PM EST   0 recs

I'm still ok with it
If Devine was so valuable to our future they would not have traded him.  

Kotsay, when healthy, will be a better asset to our team because of his experience.  Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco will get their chance later.  We're hoping to win it all in 08 and rookies can cost you...Granderson against the Cardinals anyone??  

We had bullpen problems last year and they didn't even see what Joey could do.  Speaks volumes about their confidence in him.

by themurph on Jan 13, 2008 8:50 PM EST   0 recs

team player
Kotsay said he regards Bobby Cox as a guy/manager that he really expects.  Also exicted to play on a cometitive team.  The Braves players seem really high on him.  Tiexara saying he's just as good as Andruw Jones.  Hopefully a change will bring back his better years.
Do I like Kotsay yes do I like what we gave up for him No but Devine really didn't look like he was going to be involved in the pen this year besides for other guys getting injured.
I think Kotsay can prove people wrong.  I was hoping to get a SP involved in the trade but oh well.  Our team is solid at every position and more.
Yes, I know Im being very, very positive.

by braves077 on Jan 13, 2008 11:10 PM EST   0 recs

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