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Mid-Season Top-25 Atlanta Braves Prospects

There are some prospect people that don't like ranking prospects, but I feel it's a good exercise to show how the different players at different levels stack up against each other. I took an initial crack at the rankings last October, and I think as I get to know the Braves system better I'm becoming better able to judge the different players. But that judgment still comes with a disclaimer (or perhaps a caveat) that I'm not in a position to "scout" players like people at other prospect outlets are. Much of what goes into my rankings comes from reading what those folks write about the various prospects, while other factors considered are stats from month to month and progress through the system. I also rely somewhat on how far away the players are from the majors as a factor when deciding where to rank the players.

I'm using the Talking Chop 2007 Top-25 Prospects list that is on the left sidebar of the site, which was a compilation of the lists of several Talking Chop readers, as a starting point. Off the list because he is no longer a rookie is Scott Thorman (formerly #12). Also off the list because I am going to assume that they will play enough games this year to lose their rookie status are Jarrod Saltalamacchia (formerly #1) and Yunel Escobar (formerly #7).

  1. Matt Harrison, LHP - Best of the bunch of starting lefties coming along.
  2. Eric Campbell, 3B - Injuries may have set him back a year, but when healthy he's on a solid path to the bigs.
  3. Jo-Jo Reyes, LHP - Adding the change-ups this year and solving the control issues have skyrocketed his stock; he may be on the cusp of making the majors. (Yes, I wrote that a couple of weeks ago.)
  4. Kala Ka'aihue, 1B - Early struggles are behind him and he's looking ready for promotion to double-A.
  5. Joey Devine, RHP - It looks like he's finally figured it out and will be a major part of the Atlanta pen next year.
  6. Brandon Jones, OF - This year he's healthy and his bat is silencing the critics. If he keeps up his production, he may be near the top of the list to replace another Jones in the Braves outfield next year.
  7. Brent Lillibridge, SS - His numbers aren't as eye-popping as they were last year, but he will be a solid major-leaguer soon.
  8. Cody Johnson, OF - Injury-free we're about to see what last year's first round pick can do.
  9. Dan Smith, LHP - The first of the three Mississippi lefties to reach Richmond, he struggled at first, but with his stuff he'll figure it out.
  10. Elvis Andrus, SS - Hype, hype, and more hype; maybe it's the name Elvis. He's still only 18, but I want to see results before he moves further up my list.
  11. Jason Heyward, OF - Can he be all he's cracked up to be? Once he signs, the GCL is about to find out.
  12. Tommy Hanson, RHP - A strikeout pitcher who gets results - something this system needs more of.
  13. Jamie Richmond, RHP - He struggled the first month of the season, but he's rebounded to be one of the best in the system.
  14. Neftali Feliz, RHP - Raw talent will attempt to be tapped in Rookie ball.
  15. Will Startup, LHP - This lefty reliever is ready for Atlanta.
  16. Chad Rogers, LHP - Perhaps the best of the bunch of starters from last year's draft thus far.
  17. Matt Esquivel, OF - His off the field problems behind him, he's found his stroke and in a system devoid of power hitters could work his way up the ladder quickly.
  18. Kris Medlen, RHP - The JuCo reliever is getting it done big time at Rome.
  19. Jeff Locke, LHP - Hey look, another talented lefty starter in the Braves system.
  20. Manny Acosta, RHP - His control problems appear to be straightened out and a call from Atlanta may be soon, aided by the fact that he's on the 40-man roster.
  21. Kevin Gunderson, LHP - Having a solid season as the Pelicans co-closer.
  22. Eric Cordier, RHP - He's out all year after TJ, but when he returns he will only add to the depth the Braves have at starting pitcher.
  23. Moises Hernandez, RHP - He's still a little wild, but he gets results.
  24. Chase Fontaine, 2B - Early struggles have ended and he's starting to rip. Still searching for a position.
  25. Deunte Heath, RHP - He's getting noticed in a system rich with starting talent where it's hard to get noticed.

People that I pushed off the list due to lack of "star" prospect status are Anthony Lerew (#13), because I feel he's outlived his prospect status, Van Pope (#11) who I was never really high on. Lesser prospects off the list are Martin Prado (#20), Zach Schreiber (#21), Cory Rasmus (#24), and Steve Evarts (#25). The last two guys, Rasmus and Evarts, are probably my numbers 26 and 27, but neither has yet to pitch this year, though I'm still trying to figure out why.

Poll
Who is the Braves top prospect?
Matt Harrison
50 votes
Eric Campbell
6 votes
Jo-Jo Reyes
50 votes
Kala Ka'aihue
13 votes
Joey Devine
38 votes
Brandon Jones
34 votes
Brent Lillibridge
14 votes
Cody Johnson
10 votes
Dan Smith
3 votes
Elvis Andrus
38 votes

256 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 14 comments

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Comments

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few things
first rasmus and evarts- rasmus i heard has a season ending arm injury (though haven't seen a story anywhere) and evarts is serving a team suspension (though should be back this year)

comments on the list

Too High- Dan Smith, Matt Esquivel, Gunderson

Too Low- Tommy Hanson, Brandon Jones, Fontaine, Van Pope (he should be low teens)

and in what is probably just an oversight, Jordan Schafer has established himself as a top 10 prospect in the organization

by abravesfan on Jul 8, 2007 4:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Fair Points
Thanks for the info on Rasmus and Evarts, and your comments.

I'm real high on Smith, and I saw Esquivel this spring and I think he's a stud. Gundy I've liked for a while, so I probably over rank him, but I'm fine with that.

Hanson and Fontaine will move up the list, and Jones could probably be a bit higher, but I still want to see a bit more out of him. Van Pope I've never liked as a batter, and I think a lot of other guys have jumped in front of him.

I have Schafer listed below Blanco on my OF list, but if he continues his good play, he'll move up that list and likely make the main list.

Overall, I think the Braves pitching prospects are deeper than their hitting prospects, and that's what I think this list reflects.

by gondeee on Jul 8, 2007 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blanco
He was completely overmatched last night in the Richmond. The guy just looked awful at the plate.

Also, I am just absolutely shocked that Hanson is that low. He and Feliz both easily have the highest upside of any of the Braves pitchers. Hanson is throwing mid-90's with movement, an easy delivery, good change, and knee-buckling curve and is only 20.

by was385 on Jul 8, 2007 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Definitely Agree with was385
http://blabberinbraves.blogspot.com/

by Chipper on Jul 8, 2007 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmm
Yeah the most perplexing here to me is Hanson, I figured he would be a top 10 lock for most people and knowing how BA does things they will probably have him 1 or 2. And I think brandon jones should probably be somewhere between 2-4.

If rasmus gets healthy he will most likely fly up the list but i think i heard about that arm injury too and since he hasn't really pitched anywhere yet i don't have a problem leaving him off the list. Same with evarts. And last I checker Jordan schafer was leading the entire minors in hits and in the top 5 in extra base hits. That baffles me as to how you left him out of the top 25 let alone the top 10.

Everything else looks good though. I might put mine up here pretty soon. Maybe we can do another community one by the end of the AS break. We just need that stud pitcher to emerge out of this group.

.....Matt

by yondaime4 on Jul 8, 2007 4:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i think a mid season update would be fun
i know kaaihue has moved way up my list, along with hanson

and schafer shouldn't be behind blanco on anyone's list, as a richmonder blanco is a 4th OF at best, no pop even with the solid average.  Schafer has great offensive potential, with just as good defense.  He and hanson have had the best breakout first halves in my opinion

by abravesfan on Jul 8, 2007 5:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

check the sidebar
I posted mine if people want to post with me
.....Matt

by yondaime4 on Jul 8, 2007 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

watching the futures game
first time I see Lillibridge .. he's a bit bigger than I thought he would be. He was taking some big hacks up there (0-2 with 2K)

by RehabReject on Jul 8, 2007 5:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Keep in mind
This list is only a "mid-season" list. I don't want to get too caught up in decent or good half seasons by players. I think that at the end of the season, yes, Hanson will move up the list, especially if he continues his success in Myrtle. I want to see a full season out of Schafer, but he will likely make the list at the end of the year. And depending on how the second half goes, Jones, Johnson, and even Richmond could slide up the list. And if Pope has another good second half then perhaps he is worthy of re-inclusion.

by gondeee on Jul 8, 2007 5:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Heyward
Does anyone know how close he is to signing?  I'd love to see him out on the field, but have no idea where they're at in the negotiations.

by Something Profound on Jul 8, 2007 11:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Prospect List
I enjoyed the list, which like any of its kind can inevitably be debated a good bit.  Anyway, a few observations: (1)Schafer belongs on the list and probably in the top 10; (2)I am glad to see Rasmus off the list--until he pitches more than a handful of innings he does not belong; (3) Heyward needs to sign and this may well be in doubt; (4) Lillibridge is overrated.  He does have numbers that jump out: his power has vanished and he has 88 strikeouts.  He is the most overhyped player in the system; (5) the pitchers most deserving inclusion are Parr and Rohrbaugh; (6)Harrison should not be #1.  Reyes has roared by him, but even he had not his numbers do not look much better than last season, making me wonder if he has hit a plateau at AA; (7) finally, Adnrus is overhyped, but he is actualy having as good a year as anybody on the list (with the possible exception of Hanson).  Sure his numbers are down, but an 18 yer old playing in the Carolina League is impressive.  Compare his adjustment pattern to Campbell and Kala (who struggled mightly at the Beach last year) and it should be evident that the Braves have a true talent.

Still, it is a good list and one of the things which makes them fun is that you cannot please everybody, but they are an excellent stimulus for thought. Also, things will inevitably change as the season progresses.

Finally, I hope that we sign Heyward, Fields, Shreve, Belt and Demny...

Keep Up the Good Work

by Stephen on Jul 9, 2007 4:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Schafer
You're getting bullied on Schafer here, and I think rightfully so....He dominated Rome, and I mean really dominated.  His offense really picked up over last year, and his defense is amazing.  When Schafer got promoted, they stuck Willie Cabrera in center where Schafer, and the difference was as noticible as if you had replaced Andruw Jones with Matt Diaz.  Schafer is great, and he's doing very well at Myrtle Beach, which isn't easy to do (see Eric Campbell, who I know was injured, but isn't any more, and Schafer is out performing him).

My other comments:

  1. Hanson is for real
  2.  Duante Heath is too...glad to see him on the list
  3.  Richmond's record would be better if the Rome team could hit
  4.  I, too, would like to see some big number from Andrus.
  5.  Ka'aihue and Will Startup are still my two favorites
  6.  Cody Johnson is tearing it up in Danville, and I'm personally hoping for a promotion to Rome whn the Appy League season is over...
  7.  Chase Fontaine seems to be the hardest working guy in Rome...he stays late, takes extra infield, and is very intense and focused.  He also walks a lot, which is good.
I seem to remember lots of moaning and groaning (from where, I can't remember) during the off season about how weak our farm system was. I think the BRaves are in pretty good shape myself...

by secondbass on Jul 9, 2007 9:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks
Second Bass--Thank you for your update from Rome--I always enjoy your accounts of what you have seen.  I would be curious to know what you make of Kyle Cofield--my sense is that he is in the process of becoming a real prospect.  Yeah, his numbers aren't the best--but they are so much better than the last two years.  His improvement curve is what impresses me.

by Stephen on Jul 9, 2007 1:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Cofield...
It's funny, I go to about 15 or 20 games a year in Rome, and I always seem to see the same guys pitch.  I remember when Jo Jo Reyes was there, I think I saw him 7 or 8 times.  I seem to see Jeff Lyman a lot, too, and Jamie Richmond.
I'm getting into all this because I think I've seen Cofield pitch maybe twice, and I think both times was in the 2nd half of the game, when I'm usually occupied with feeding the kids and stuff.  In other words, I don't really have an impression yet of his pitching.  I've met him a few times, though, and he's a pretty cool guy.  I get the players to sign copies of the pictures I take, and he always comments that it looks like his arm is about to pop off.  He's very tall, too....one of the tallest on the team.  I'll pay more attention next time I see him pitch.  We're going this Friday, but I don't know who is starting.

by secondbass on Jul 9, 2007 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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