Kelly Johnson: Will He or Won't He

by gondeee on Feb 11, 2007 12:50 PM EST Comment 11 comments

Can Kelly Johnson win the Comeback Player of the Year Award (presented by Viagra)?

Or will he be back in the minor leagues by the first of June?

There is a lot of responsibility being heaped on the shoulders of (the still green) Kelly Johnson. There is the responsibility of learning a new position and being expected to replace the above average defense of Marcus Giles, and the responsibility of being the leadoff hitter for a rebuilt Braves lineup. He will also be facing major league pitching for the first time in well over a year; can his streaky bat survive at the top of a big league lineup?

In many ways Johnson has gotten better as he progressed through the Braves minor league system. In double-A in 03 he hit .275, the next season in double-A he hit .282, and in 05 he hit .310 in triple-A. That earned him a promotion to the majors where he rebounded to eventually hit .241 after initially struggling. Even then, his major league numbers are too small of a sample to be that meaningful, except for one factor; walks. Even while struggling, and even while compiling just a .241 average, Johnson fought his way to a .334 on-base percentage. And that number stands up to what he's done in his minor league career, where he's compiled a .366 OBP while hitting just .281 - which is encouraging for a player whose job it will be to get on base.

I said back in November that I thought Johnson was the player who would get the lion's share of the second base job, and we have since found out that many in the organization think he will be able to handle the job full time. The bigger question is if Johnson continues to be the extremely streaky hitter he was in 05, will the Braves be able to tolerate his ups and downs for an entire season. We know that Cox will do all he can to leave him in the lineup and work on his game, but what effect it will have on the rest of the order is not known.

Perhaps this talk of KJ leading off and being the second baseman is all too premature. Perhaps we're putting too much faith in the abilities of Glenn Hubbard to transform Johnson into a major league second baseman in the span of one off-season. And perhaps we're wrong that he can win the job in spring training where every part of his game will be under intense scrutiny - hitting and defense.

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Martin Prado

I watched him play alot in Mississippi and he is a professional 2nd baseman in my opinion. He is smooth throwing the ball to first and quick enough on the DP turn to first. His range is good enough.

Now, I think he can hit MLB pitching, but I wouldn't want him to hit first in the lineup too much. But consider this example...When Ben Sheets was rehabbing and he pitched against the M-Braves he was throwing gas. I watched Prado to see if he was scared or if he knew he could get a basehit off of him. Prado was the first batter of the game. Sheets threw a 98 mph fastball to open the game and Prado smoked it right back at him and Sheets had to jump to avoid getting hit.

The reason I say this is that I believe players step up when they face a major leaguer and that's why Prado could do fine for the first two months of the season if he began the season at 2nd base. Go ahead and laugh but I believe in it.

Prado walks some and he runs the bases well, but I really wish Langerhans would come around and hit leadoff against righties. I see Kelly Johnson spending some time in Richmond while Prado and Orr keep 2nd base warm until KJ starts hitting in Richmond. I'm sure it will be cold in Richmond for the first month though and you never know that will affect a player.

Why won't anybody project Willy Aybar? He is probably the best canidate, but I don't know anything about him except for what I saw on tv.

by themurph on Feb 11, 2007 4:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Aybar

Would probably be my first choice for second but bobby pretty much stated outright that he is our insurance for chipper getting hurt. That said I wouldn't be surprised that if Johnson doesn't produce and his defense is bad, or if chipper somehow stays injury free then we'll see a bit of Aybar at 2nd.

I'm still not sold on prado. He's solid, but again he is going to have to hit for a really high average to stay afloat. He's more suited for the 8th hole or the 2nd hole and the braves know that.

I've always liked KJ and I'm optimistic that his defense will come around, prolly not really well until midseason though. I'm more iffy on his bat but i think his minimum offensive potential is better than prado's likely offensive production.

.....Matt

by yondaime4 on Feb 11, 2007 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lefty in LF and Leadoff.

Side by Side Comparisons (Minor League Stats)

LF
Blanco: .272/.374/.380 in 2313 AB; 158/226 steals(70%)
Langy: .265/.355/.414 in 2753 AB; 95/160 steals (59%)

LEADOFF
Blanco: .272/.374/.380 in 2313 AB; 158/226 steals(70%)
Kelly: .281/.366/.464 in 2142 AB; 73/111 steals (66%)

Let's not forget that Blanco is peaking now, while Ryan is coming off of a weak season and Johnson is returning from injury. He's also the prototypical leadoff hitter (best OBP and STL% of the bunch, to illustrate that point) and, by all accounts, he plays great defense in CF, so LF should be no problem. Setting him at the top of the lineup should take some of the pressure off of Kelly as he makes his transition to 2B and you could even platoon him with Diaz (I'm still hoping that Wilson will end up platoning with Thorman at 1B instead of playing in LF at all) if the splits merit such a move. I get that he's a darkhorse, at best, for either job, but he deserves them both.

by ejruiz on Feb 11, 2007 5:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Paul Snyder's comment

The other night in Rome, Snyder was asked who the 2nd baseman would be, and he rattled off the candidates.....Orr, Johnson, Prado. He didn't commit to KJ as a shoe-in, but he said Kelly had been working hard with the best instructor around (Hubbard), and that everybody knows what he did for Marcus Giles. He also said that nobody could swing a bat like Johnson.
For what it's worth....

by secondbass on Feb 11, 2007 6:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Blanco

Can we teach blanco to play 2nd? THat would solve serious problems. So would brent lillbridge destroying the minors this year. Then we can bring him up midseason and send KJ to LF and have some serious depth all around.

.....Matt

by yondaime4 on Feb 11, 2007 6:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Blanco

he throws lefthanded.

by themurph on Feb 11, 2007 7:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Said that tongue in cheek, can we teach him to throw right handed?

.....Matt

by yondaime4 on Feb 12, 2007 3:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Single Game Tickets

Sorry. Off the subject. I am a Mets fan in Atlanta. I want to go to the game for the Home Opener (actually, I want tickets for the whole series). Anyone know when single game tickets are going on sale? I've seen the prices on the resale websites, but those prices are ridiculous.

by MetsFan on Feb 11, 2007 10:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs