Center Field Options Expanding?

Call me a baseball geek, but this is one of my favorite weeks of the year. I've liked the CoCo idea the whole time. What would we have to give to Boston to get him?

... is this guy worth $5 million, bucks which could be funneled into the more important Francoeur and Teixeira negotiating stacks?

Didn't think so until this week, when cash flow improved with the likelihood of yet another annual contribution from the Mike Hampton health insurance policy, the Braves most consistent source of "unexpected" revenue.

no on coco crisp. no on melky cabrera.  both teams would want the moon and, personally, i dont think our system needs to get rid of 2-3 more prospects.   let lillibridge, schafer, gorkys, b.jones, willie harris (last resort), and josh anderson fight it out in spring training.  josh anderson is the lesser known between him and melky, but really, how much different are they?  surely, one of those 6 guys can give us about the same production as the 2 options mentioned.

The reason that the braves want melky cabrera is because he is a defensive centerfielder, will hit for a decent average at teh bottom or top of the order, and is very cheap. Also, by the time that schafer or hernandez is ready to roam center, melky could easily be traded somewhere else for a young starter, or schafer or gorkys could be traded off if cabrera turns out to be a nice all-around centerfielder. With Melky, the braves have a very good defensive player in center and a young leadoff hitter, one that could develop into our CF of the future, could be the long term option in center, or could be traded off for more pitching. Melky is not going to block schafer or gorkys because he is cheap and still will be in a few years, so he can be moved. Any way you look at it, Melky gives the braves an option in center that will probably have a positive impact into the future.

With that being said, what will the braves have to give up to get melky. I could see us trading them joey devine as a young bullpen piece, and if the yanks want to talk about trading cano, i guess they could have interest in lillbridge to play second. Beyond that, i really do not see how the braves and yankees match up.

No, what i am basing it on is that right now we have a closer in Soriano who we will have for 08 and beyond, and when mike gonzalez comes back, he will be an option in the ninth as well (grant it maybe not reliable till 09.) When you also throw in moylan, acosta, ascenio, we have some decent options to close in the future, not to mention some homes in the lower minors who could be relievers and future closers.  Melky is a good option for what the braves want, he is cheaper than dejesus and crisp and is younger, provides similar defense, and will not disappoint at the plate.  With his young age and cheap price, he can easily moved next offseason in exchange for young pitching help, if schafer is ready, or we could move melky to left.  I think devine for melky would be a very nice trade, because you are trading an unproven piece for a piece that has been effective in the past.  That being said, i still highly doubt the yankees just take devine for melky.

Do NOT trade Joey Devine now. This guy has really gotten it together. You can never have too much in the pen, especially when you're counting on a Gonzalez or the Soriano we saw giving up homers last year. Keep Devine, because he could well be our future closer, plus he comes cheap.

Melky Cabrera could become a viable leftfielder with some power for someone, but we only need to be covered for a couple of years there, and here are Diaz and Brandon Jones. He's a fair to good CF, but we're coming down from one of the best all-time and anything less than excellent will be a huge comedown.

Which takes us to Gregor Blanco, another guy who the Braves seem to think doesn't have the right stuff for center at a time when Bobby is specifically asking for an excellent fielder. Gregor, with his eye, could OBP .400 hitting in front of the pitcher, but this job is all about defense behind our pitchers. Andruw's read on batted balls was uncanny, and that's what we need to find. It's not always in the range numbers, it's something you see when you're in the ballpark.

I am not opposed to Melky and for a reasonable package i think he would have value for the Braves. However, i want to disagree with the notion that he is a "defensive CF." I have gotten the impression that he is a decent CF but not an above average defender there.  I see him as someone who as he gets older will have to move to LF or RF.  However, offensively I think he could end up being a very good player.  Keep in mind that he is only ...what....23?

I have heard announcers in the past comment on his defense, but I agree that I may also overrate his defense because he has a tendency to make a great play.  So, in that case, i could see melky as being a bit overrated in  my mind.  With that being said, I still would not mind at all going out and getting him.

Have any actual deals been floated for Melky this offseason? Or is Devine, Lillibridge, etc. idle speculation?

I'd certainly be in favor of acquiring Melky if we could somehow get him straight up for Lillibridge or Devine. Combining both in a deal would be overpaying considering we'd lose a lot of exclusive control over young players in the deal. However, Melky's shown himself capable of .275/.340/.390 numbers in center field. That's big league average for the position.

Average season:
CF    604 168 31  6 17 55 101 23  7 .278 .342 .435
Melky 580 160 28  6  8 56  73 14  6 .275 .340 .388

So Melky's a downgrade in power and steals, but strikes out less and gets on base at average rates. Add in at least average defense and you've got a bargin for an unproven guy like Devine or Lillibridge. We'd control him for at least four seasons by the way.

Considering our other options (Blanco, Anderson, Harris) would also be downgrades in power and do not have the 1000 big league at-bats that Melky has to prove his .275/.340 is legitimate, I'd easily make the trade if we could get him for Lillibridge or Devine. Whether or not we could is the big question.

They were just me trying to give idle speculation, simply because they are probably the most tradable chips we have.  I have no idea if the yankees need either one of the, so I really have to go on pure spitballing.  I am, however, 99% sure that either cabrera or crisp goes to minny in a deal for santana, and that the one who does not go will then be discussed about for teh braves to get.

"Melky for Devine is a clear Braves win for any objective observer".

a guy with a 2.73 era in minors with almost a strikeout and a half per inning vs. a below average defensive centerfielder?  what's the win for the braves?  with schafer and the other guys that are already putting up better #s in the minors than melky will ever put up, why in the hell would that be a win?  right now, joey is a rare breed for the minor league system, while a melky cabrera type player is a dime a dozen.  

Yeah, Devine for Melky would be a clear win for the Braves. An unproven (if talented) reliever who might impact 70 games if he's actually figured it out versus a proven center fielder who can give you average production and defense until your stud prospect is ready AND still be a tradeable chip afterwards? I'll take Melky.

Is Melky an all-star? Of course not. But he's certainly an average center fielder and a proven major league hitter who can give us a sure thing option in center until Schafer is ready, whether that's July 2008, March 2009, July 2009, or some other time.

"Melky, Crisp, Dejesus and even Corey Patterson have all been mentioned. And they all played at a similar level last year."

Stat lines below:
          AB  H   2B 3B HR BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG
CF     604 168 31  6 17 55 101 23  7 .278 .342 .435
Melky  580 160 28  6  8 56  73 14  6 .275 .340 .388
Crisp  625 175 34  6 12 48  90 25 10 .280 .329 .409
DeJes  617 174 36  8 10 59  91  9  7 .282 .358 .415
Patte  587 152 27  8 18 29 135 32  8 .258 .298 .414

Those a 162 game career averages for the four players plus the CF average as calculated by Baseball Prospectus. Melky, DeJesus, and Crisp are about the same career wise - power is equal, speed varies a bit, average is equal, some variance in OBP. Patterson is clearly no one's equal with his sub .300 OBP and strikeouts.

As for last season:
            AB  H  2B 3B HR BB K  SB CS AVG  OBP  SLG
Melky  545 149 24  8  8 43 68 12  5 .273 .318 .391  
Crisp  526 141 28  7  6 50 84 28  6 .268 .330 .382  
DeJes  605 157 29  9  7 64 83 10  4 .260 .351 .372
Patte  461 124 26  2  8 21 65 37  9 .269 .304 .386

My sights have been set on DeJesus since the rumors began. I'll take a guy whose worst OBP season yet was .351 on top of a .260 AVG. Patterson is functionally worthless with a .690 OPS. Crisp could be a rebound candidate if he's not off to Minnesota.

Contract wise it breaks down like this:

DeJesus - $2.5M 2008; $3.6M 2009; $4.7M 2010; $6.0M Club Option 2011
Crisp - $4.75M 2008; $5.75M 2009; $8.0M Club Option 2010
Patterson - Free agent
Melky - Under exclusive control at least through 2008-2011 at ML minimum and then arbitration.

Obviously, Melky is cheaper, controlled for longer, and younger (23 rather than all others who are 28). His age makes it more likely that he'll improve, but even now his statistics compare favorably to DeJesus's, equally to Crisp's, and better than Patterson's. And he's at least as good as any in house option AND comes with 1000 ML at-bats with average numbers.

"Yeah, Devine for Melky would be a clear win for the Braves. An unproven (if talented) reliever who might impact 70 games if he's actually figured it out versus a proven center fielder who can give you average production and defense until your stud prospect is ready AND still be a tradeable chip afterwards? I'll take Melky."

One year of a rental to be worth many years of solid relief/closing from devine.  you weigh the options.   in terms of "now"  it might look OK, but for years to come, it is just plain dumb.  devine could really be something incredible for years to come while melky will give one year of average-below average offense and above average defense, which we could probably get from schafer (if not more) this year. melky is all hype and i bet that most gm's can see through the pinstripe bullshit.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Melky-Cabrera.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Jordan-Schafer.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Gorkys-Hernandez.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Josh-Anderson.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Gregor-Blanco.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Brent-Lillibridge.shtml

please find one reason why we trade joey devine, a potential closer, when we already have these 5 guys waiting in the wings?  if your only reason is the 1000 mlb at bats, then that's absurd.  melky cabrera has nothing on any of these guys except he  comes with a big ol' side of yankee pride. and why would we want to control him?  as you can see, there's already a logjam at center field. however, there's never a logjam with QUALITY pitchers.

lillibridge is trying the conversion to center.  he played center in his earlier years.  also, the 2 "4th outfielder" guys that you are referring to (obviously josh anderson and blanco), have better stats than melky. so, is he a 5th outfielder?  

He's a shortstop. Whether or not he's "trying the conversion to center" is irrelevant. He last played center in the spring of 2005. And seriously, try to understand the difference between the Major Leagues and Minor Leagues. There's a reason why "Four-A player" was coined. The "better stats" you're talking about were accumulated at Triple-A. And yeah, Blanco's aren't bad, but if you think they're going to be replicated next year you've got another thing coming.

yet, melky the magnificent's stats will? so, i guess you're better off in the minors to put up shitty stats, so you won't be "coined" 4A player? ridiculous.  he was average in the minors, he'll be average to below average in the majors for a long time to come. using your point, what makes melky's stats in the minors so impressive that he couldn't be coined 4A player? did you even look at the stats to see if your argument made a relevant point?  yankees have had a reputation of overhyping their own and they often bust(go ask kevin maas).are you telling me that, straight up, melky cabrera will be better next year than josh anderson or gregor blanco SO MUCH that it would be worth losing any player of caliber, especially a pitcher whom we are short on.  i dont think you understand the basis of the argument.  you are suggesting to trade from a point of weakness (pitching) to gain the organization's point of strength (outfield).  that alone should be enough to shut the argument down, but no.  so, i will take my argument elsewhere...what will melky provide that one of the other guys can not?  stellar defense?  steady bat?  power (uh..no), a good play on words for  the fans at turner field (fans in the upper deck dress up as aliens and hold signs up that say "the melky way").  if...and only if we are going to trade for anyone, it should be a veteran with years of proven experience and we should not trade from a point of weakness inside the organization.

"yet, melky the magnificent's stats will?"

Don't put words in my mouth. Melky's repeated his stats for two years. The likelyhood of him, in his 3rd ML season and as he continues to grow as a hitter, posting worse stats than 2007 is much lower than Gregor Blanco, in his 1st ML season , his first season above AAA, and at the same age, posting the same stats as he did in 2007.

"so, i guess you're better off in the minors to put up shitty stats, so you won't be "coined" 4A player? ridiculous.  he was average in the minors, he'll be average to below average in the majors for a long time to come. using your point, what makes melky's stats in the minors so impressive that he couldn't be coined 4A player?"

Melky's stats in the minors are no longer relevant. He has 1000 ML at-bats under his belt in which he's hit as an average center fielder would. Blanco has 0 ML at-bats, Anderson has 67.

"did you even look at the stats to see if your argument made a relevant point?"

Yes. Did you look and see the AAA next to both Anderson and Blanco's stats?

"yankees have had a reputation of overhyping their own and they often bust(go ask kevin maas)."

No one is claiming Melky is the next stud center fielder ala Andruw or Torii Hunter. He's average.

"are you telling me that, straight up, melky cabrera will be better next year than josh anderson or gregor blanco SO MUCH that it would be worth losing any player of caliber, especially a pitcher whom we are short on."

1. I don't buy the argument we're short on relief pitching. Earlier I ran off all the young relievers we have in our bullpen. Read up.
2. I'm saying the chances of Melky posting an average line for a center fielder (look above for it) in 2008 is higher than Blanco or Anderson's. And yeah, the chance is worth losing Joey Devine.

"i dont think you understand the basis of the argument. you are suggesting to trade from a point of weakness (pitching) to gain the organization's point of strength (outfield).  that alone should be enough to shut the argument down, but no."

The organization's strength right now is actually young relievers and the biggest weakness right now is a lack of an average player to play center field. I'm not denying that Gorkys and Schafer are studs who have the chance of claiming the CF job for a decade or more, but that time isn't 2008. I'm not advocating trading from our dearth of starting pitching.

"so, i will take my argument elsewhere...what will melky provide that one of the other guys can not?  stellar defense?  steady bat?  power (uh..no), a good play on words for  the fans at turner field (fans in the upper deck dress up as aliens and hold signs up that say "the melky way").  if...and only if we are going to trade for anyone, it should be a veteran with years of proven experience and we should not trade from a point of weakness inside the organization."

Only a proven average preformance. If we're looking for a revolving door in center in 2008, much like first base was before Teixeira was acquired, than by all means don't trade for Melky. Hope that Anderson and Blanco will make the transition to becoming everyday ML players successfully and that if they fail Lillibridge can refind his inner CF. I'm not interested in CF turning into the black hole of our lineup in 2008. That's the spot Melky fills for us.

i still stand by my argument, but i've grown weary.   all my points have been made and so have yours. we have disagreed to agree, so we might try the opposite.