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Let's Talk Turkey

It's Turkey day already and the Braves seem to have made all the moves necessary to retool last year's team for a run at getting back into the postseason next year. We've traded our $8 million shortstop and seemingly let our $13 million center fielder walk. In their place we add room for the salary of Mark Teixeira and the free agent return of Tom Glavine. The question now, "is there any money left?"

The Braves have stated publicly that they will spend many millions more on next year's team, but what exactly will that figure be? According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Braves payroll was at about $87 million last year. The AJC reports that the Braves started the year at around $81 million and added around $5 million via trades during the season. So between those reports, we can accurately assume that the Braves payroll in 2007 was around $86 to $87 million.

Below is a chart I've compiled over the past few days by using data from Cot's and MLB4U. I also took plenty of liberties and used a whole lot of my own "memory" of what I think the contract status is of these players. I'm pretty sure this chart is not 100% correct, but it's pretty darn close and that's really what I'm going for. (An * means an option year; a ~ means an estimate of contract or arbitration value; FA means the player is a free agent and not under contract that year.)

2008 Braves Salary Overview
Player Position Status 2008 2008 2009 2010
Brian McCann 2 Under Contract $800,000 $3,500,000 $5,500,000
Mark Teixeira 3 Arbitration ~$12,000,000 FA FA
Kelly Johnson 4 Controlled $400,000 $400,000 $400,000
Chipper Jones 5 Under Contract $11,000,000 $11,000.000 FA
Yunel Escobar 6 Controlled $400,000 $400,000 $400,000
Matt Diaz 7 Arbitration ~$800,000 ~$1,200,000 ~$2,200,000
Josh Andersonn 8 Controlled $400,000 $400,000 $400,000
Jeff Francoeur 9 Arbitration ~$1,500,000 ~$3,500,000 ~$5,500,000
John Smoltz SP-1 Under Contract $14,000,000 $12,000,000* $13,000,000*
Tim Hudson SP-2 Under Contract $13,000,000 $13,000,000 $12,000,000*
Tom Glavine SP-3 Under Contract $8,000,000 FA FA
Mike Hampton SP-4 Under Contract $15,000,000# FA FA
Chuck James SP-5 Arbitration ~$800,000 ~$1,600,000 ~$2,800,000
Willy Aybar Bench Controlled $400,000 $400,000 $400,000
Willie Harris Bench Controlled $400,000 FA FA
Brayan Pena Bench Controlled $400,000 $400,000 $400,000
Clint Sammons Bench Controlled $400,000 $400,000 $400,000
Scott Thorman Bench Controlled $400,000 $400,000 $400,000
Rafael Soriano Bullpen Arbitration ~$2,250,000 ~$4,000,000 FA
Mike Gonzalez Bullpen Arbitration ~$3,000,000 ~$4,500,000 FA
Peter Moylan Bullpen Controlled $400,000 $400,000 $400,000
Joey Devine Bullpen Controlled $400,000 $400,000 $400,000
Chris Resop Bullpen Controlled $400,000 $400,000 $400,000
Royce Ring Bullpen Controlled $400,000 $400,000 $400,000
Tyler Yates Bullpen Arbitration ~$750,000 ~$1,500,000 ~$2,500,000
Linup Total $27,300,000 $20,400,000 $14,400,000
Rotation Total $50,800,000 $26,600,000 $27,800,000
Bench Total $2,000,000 $1,600,000 $1,600,000
Bullpen Total $7,600,000 $11,600,000 $4,100,000
Grand Total $87,700,000 $60,200,000 $47,900,000
# Hampton Recalculation $80,700,000 $60,200,000 $47,900,000

One of the most noticeable items is that we are pretty much already at the total salary level we were at the end of last year - only slightly more than the $87 million we spent last year. But remember the words of Braves CEO Terry McGuirk, we will spend "many millions more" on next year's player payroll. Now all we need to do is figure out how much the word "many" means.

The thing that really jumped out at me about this chart was how much we are going to spend on our starting rotation next year - almost $51 million - that's over half of our payroll. With the rotation taking up so much of our 2008 resources, you better believe it is the most important part of this team - much like it was throughout the 90's.

Another revelation I had because of this chart is just how much value we will likely be getting out of our bullpen. There will likely be four or five guys making under $1 million if not the major league minimum. And while their salary will be low, I still think they have the stuff to be solid bullpen contributors.

The bench, too, will consist of mostly major league minimum salaries, as will two or three spots in the starting lineup.

The question now is what will we go get with our "many millions more?" I'm guessing a bullpen lefty is part of the plan, as is a possible upgrade over our untested rookies in center field, and perhaps a veteran bench bat. We can certainly look at this chart and see how a $15 million salary, which Andruw Jones might collect were we to offer him arbitration, would certainly break the bank, and leave us no room for the little upgrades like a bullpen lefty or bench veteran.

Update [2007-11-22 12:56:55 by gondeee]:

A great point was brought up in the comments section about the way the Braves are calculating Mike Hampton's contract. While they were only on the hook for several million the first couple of years, they went ahead and took the total amount they owed Hampton and averaged it out evenly across the five years they were paying him. It's rather crafty book keeping, but in the eyes of the Braves and their salary structure, they are only paying Hampton $8 million from this year's budget. That's a huge chunk less - $7 million less. That is quite a bit of extra money to spend on free agents or players acquired via trade. I've added this into the chart as the "Hampton Recalculation." We won't call it the Grand Total as it is mostly back-room book keeping that we mysteriously only found out about last year, but we will definitely keep it mind when considering how much room the Braves have left in their salary budget.

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Wren says no chance on Andruw
Bench vet, how about Todd Pratt again?

by TradeAndruw on Nov 22, 2007 10:46 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nice chart!
Very informative...McCann's contract really jumps up a notch in '09. One thing to keep in mind is that, according to DOB and other sources I have seen but can't remember, the Braves spread their monetary commitment to Hampton out evenly between 2003-2008. Meaning, for their accounting purposes, he his only going to account for about $8MM on their books.

by mordecai on Nov 22, 2007 11:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Great Point!!!
Thanks for bringing this up. Now that you do, I also remember this being the case. I'm going to make a note on the chart.

by gondeee on Nov 22, 2007 12:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Awesome!
I helped!!! The extra cash should really come in handy in solidifying the bench.

by mordecai on Nov 22, 2007 1:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent work!
Great job on this gondeee - it'll be an excellent reference going forward.  Do you have plans to keep it updated as things change, maybe as a running sidebar item?

by VegasAces on Nov 22, 2007 11:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

ESPN
On ESPN's team page for the Braves, they have the salary at $92 million for 08
"Losers whine about how they did their best. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen." Sean Connery

by pbrogan on Nov 22, 2007 1:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The Worldwide Leader in (NY/Boston) Sports
I looked at that but some of the numbers are wrong...Glavine is listed at $10.5MM, and Chipper is at $13.6M. Maybe some of their salary info is old, but they did have McCann's new salary, so who knows?

by mordecai on Nov 22, 2007 1:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, nice chart
Things look bright going ahead in financial terms. I like the pitching, defense, and speed approach the organization seems to be taking.

by TradeAndruw on Nov 22, 2007 1:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The Bullpen.
I really like our 'pen, but I'd prefer to have Acosta up there instead of Yates.  Add to that the fact the Gonzo won't be pitching until around the All-Star Break and you have to consider Ascanio a real possibility for the big league club.
Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Nov 22, 2007 1:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

25-man
Yeah, I just chose the most "likely" people to fill out the roster. I also wanted to make sure I got all the big contracts in there. Adding an Ascanio or Acosta (the killer-A's) won't make a dent in our payroll - and I think one or both of them will be key parts of next year's bullpen.

by gondeee on Nov 22, 2007 3:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Frenchy?
I know that there was some contention regarding renegotiating Francouer's contract last year. Did that ever get resolved? Did I miss something?

by iLukeisamazing on Nov 22, 2007 1:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Frenchy
I took some liberties with Frenchy. I'm fairly certain he's a "super-two" arbitration guy, but not certain about that. So that's why I estimated his arbitration award at what I did - pretty much I gave him the same money McCann got when he signed his contract. But no, Frenchy is just year to year, he is not under a long term contract.

Thought, hopefully, they will use some of that "many millions more" to sign Jeff long-term.

by gondeee on Nov 22, 2007 3:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Gondee:
In terms of Frenchy, I don't quite understand, why hasn't he been signed long-term? I realize that last year they signed McCann because he's arguably the 2nd best young C in MLB (below Mauer, maybe tied with Russell Martin), but I think that those extra millions could easily be used to sign Frenchy to a 5-6-year extension around $28 million (isn't this what McCann received)?

Also, in terms of resigning Texeira, why haven't we made a viable offer yet? He's 26 (maybe 27 now), one of the best Offensive 1B's in the game, and probably the best Defensive one in the game. If he wants $18 mil, give it to him. We'll wipe Hampton off the books next year as well as Glavine ($16 million combined), so even if we upped his contract, even to say $20 mil per, we'd only be adding $ mil to the payroll, which isn't much at all. Not to mention we wiped Andruw's contract off this year.

Sorry, this has just bothered me...

by iLukeisamazing on Nov 22, 2007 4:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

With You
I'm totally with you on all those counts - let's sign Tex and Fenchy long term this off-season. There's no telling if we've had any negotiations with Frenchy, but we certainly don't have to - he's under our control for the next three years (pending arbitration numbers).

by gondeee on Nov 22, 2007 5:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

just a point
I am all with you on resigning frenchy to a long term contract and there was talk about it earlier in the year but one thing we have to keep in mind is the Braves have rarely ever negotiated a deal with a player before their 6 years was up, especially during their hard luck time that past few seasons. Gondee makes a good point saying that McCann is arguably one of the two best catchers in baseball right now and it was widely viewed as an exception to the rule when McCann was extended, though there was rampant speculation that frenchy couldn't be far behind being the face of the franchise that he is.

But with new ownership a larger payroll and frank wren taking over the front office there is probably a good chance that we will see Frenchy get a long term deal in the next year or so. It also helps that he is developing some semblance of plate recognition as well.

And yes, we need to do everything possible to resign Tex.

.....Matt

by yondaime4 on Nov 22, 2007 6:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Braves offered Frenchy a McCann contract last year
and he turned it down, wanting more money, so its not enitrely on the braves, they have tried (and will likely try again).  I don't think Frenchy should get anything significantly different than mccann, at least at this point

by abravesfan on Nov 23, 2007 11:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

link?
can you link that?
.....Matt

by yondaime4 on Nov 23, 2007 12:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Incorrect
They never offered Frenchy anything. They took a wait-and-see attitude with him.

by iLukeisamazing on Nov 23, 2007 2:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

WRONG
"But Francoeur's long-term deal will have to wait. Like McCann, he was approached about a contract extension at the beginning of March. But it's believed the counterproposal by Hammond was nearly double what the Braves originally offered."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070322&content_id=1854251&vkey=spt2007news&fex t=.jsp

by abravesfan on Nov 23, 2007 10:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wait
Can we wait and see whether Francoeur actually turns into something more than a .290/.340/.450 before we sign him to a $30+ million extension? I mean, he's a really good defensive outfielder, but you'd like something more than a .782 OPS from your right fielder. If he can't approve, there's no reason to give him a big deal.

by 17843 on Nov 23, 2007 1:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Frenchy is certainly nothing special right now
and I wouldn't mind them waiting him out, especially if he won't sign for a discount.  But if they are going to keep him around at least through the arby years (which they seem set on with the whole face of the franchise thing), locking him in for those years (even if they don't buy off more than a year of FA) would be good for payroll planning purposes

by abravesfan on Nov 23, 2007 10:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Neither The Braves nor Tex...
... has any intention to discuss contract during this offseason, so I don't see that will happen...even though that's what we all want to see.  I agree we should sign Frenchy now.  It didn't work out during the last offseason, I hope they can get it done this time.  

Gondeee, I have read from somewhere that KJ is possibly a "Super-2" player who will be eligible for arbitration.  He will cost the Braves more than the $400k you noted in the chart.

Nevertheless, great work!

by kc on Nov 22, 2007 6:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Andruw and arbitration
"$15 million salary, which Andruw Jones might collect were we to offer him arbitration..."

The process determining who is a "Class A free agent" should be used on arbitration cases. 'Twer it so, a Class B like Andruw should max out at seven figures.

by JimK on Nov 22, 2007 6:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hampton's contractual status
"We won't call it the Grand Total as it is mostly back-room book keeping that we mysteriously only found out about last year"

This isn't true - the Braves announced that they would amortize Hampton's contract such that their annual commitment would be the same each year ($8 million).  This has been the publicized case for much longer than a year, and is hardly "back-room" in status - as far the Braves are (and we should be) concerned, Hampton will be paid $8 million next season, and that $8 million constitutes the entirety of his impact on the yearly budget.

So, for all practical purposes, the second figure you list (~$80 million) is a much more accurate representation of the Braves' current salary situation; in fact, figuring Hampton's 2008 salary as anything more than $8 million is somewhat of a misrepresentation of the Braves' fiscal conditions for the upcoming year.

Other than that, your accounting seems to be on base, and I moreover agree that the Braves are more likely to use what remains (hopefully around $10 million) in order to actually improve the CF spot (Anderson is a marginal starter, and only marginally better than Willie Harris) and tweak the bullpen (Mahay?), which is necessary to help mitigate the risk involved in having two forty-year-old pitchers in the rotation.

by jpx7 on Nov 22, 2007 7:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Well
This is a good topic. By the way, What are you going to buy this Dark Friday? As always, it tastes like dead...
I want to know what every one is planning to buy.Here is my shopping list:
http://www.globalgmail.com/upload/BFridayHotDeals.pdf
  LOL. Any feedback is welcome.

by jonaththan123 on Nov 22, 2007 10:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks
Gondee--This chart is excellent as it is helpful.  Let me make one more observation--the quality of this blog is increasing--I am really enjoying the offseason coverage.  Keep Up the Good Work.

Happy Thanksgiving

by Stephen on Nov 23, 2007 3:24 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Something else missing...
...we have no way of knowing how much the Braves are getting from the insurance because of Hampton's injuries.  This puts an additional variable to the Braves budget.

by kc on Nov 23, 2007 7:12 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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