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Who's that for Garland?

In our quest to add starting pitching depth that has gone on since well before the trading deadline last summer, one of the names at the forefront of that search was the Chicago White Sox Jon Garland. He was an established veteran starter - even though he is not yet 30 years old - and a two-time 18-game winner. While this was always just a rumor, there was a lot of chatter about us sending Edgar Renteria to the Sox for the right-handed Garland. This never came to be. Not last year before the deadline when we badly needed another starter, and not this off-season, when the acquisition of more reliable starting pitching was number-1 on our agenda.

Then today we get news that the White Sox have traded Garland for a shortstop - straight-up. That shortstop is Anaheim's Orlando Cabrera. Renteria and Cabrera are virtually the same shortstop, with Edgar winning by a slight margin. This is one of those times I wish I knew what was discussed or what was offered (if anything) last July. Did we turn down the offer for Garland and Renteria straight-up, or did they turn it down? Was there ever a trade discussed between the Braves and White Sox with those two players involved?

I saw that trade today and I let out a big, "huh!" Garland may not be the "best" starting pitcher out there, but he sure seemed to be the "best" at the trade deadline last year - at a time when the Braves could have benefited from having another reliable starter on their staff. He also seemed to be one of the better arms available on the trade market this winter.

I guess I'm not too chapped by the non-trade now, as I think we may have gotten a better return for Renteria in Jurrjens and Gorkys. And maybe that's what we were holding out for all along. At the time of the Renteria trade, Wren said discussions about the players involved had been going on for several months. So maybe it took us a while to convince the Tigers to give us two good prospects.

With the moves we've made this off-season, I can see us going with the old starters this year (Glavine-42, Smoltz-41, Hampton-35, Hudson-32), and then turning it over to the young kids like Jurrjens, Reyes, and any of the combination of young guns we've got in our system (Rohrbough, Hanson, Locke, Evarts). Much like we're publicly bridging the gap from Andruw Jones to Jordan Schafer, I think we're also bridging the gap in our rotation. In that respect they must have thought Jurrjens was just as good as Garland (if not better), and that Gorkys was a bonus. Many scouts at the time of the Renteria trade said Edgar for Jurrjens straight up would have been a good move for the Braves, but adding Gorkys made it a great move.

On the flip side, we can stop talking about Garland now - he's in Anaheim to stay. Besides, I'm guessing our rotation is going to be fine next year. By my count we've got eight or nine legit contenders for five rotation spots.

Update [2007-11-19 15:38:55 by gondeee]:

Via MLBTR, U.S.S. Mariner has an interesting take that the White Sox got the better end of this trade.

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Worst trade
This is hands down the worst baseball move I've seen in some time. The White Sox, holding basically the offseason's most desirable starting pitcher this side of Johan Santana, just dealt him for a shortstop who posted his best OPS year since 2003 and who at 33 is clearly on the downslope of his career. This is the same Chicago White Sox team which finished 72-90 this season and has been advised to rebuild by every baseball source I've seen.

I've gotta wonder what Kenny Williams is thinking here; if he was going to trade Garland to the Angels, he at least should've gone after one of Brandon Wood or Nick Adenhart in return.

(A caveat: if Williams manages to spin Cabrera off for some youngsters, I'll be the first to congratulate him)

I'll also disagree that Edgar and Cabrera are fundamentally the same shortstop. Edgar's career OPS is .756 and OPS+ is 97. Cabrera's career is .724 and OPS+ is 86. Edgar's also a year younger and has posted a career AVG of .018 points higher. Cabrera leads slightly in RF .442 to .414, but even Cabrera isn't better than league average. Both are signed for $9 million this year.

I'll also disagree that we have 8-9 legit contendors. Glavine, Hudson, Smoltz, James makes four, add Jo-Jo and Jair, six, and Hampton if he's healthy (jury's still out). Anyone else is a stopgap at best. But, I like what we've done this offseason and feel comfortable about the pitching next year. Now if we can find a center fielder we'll be set.

by 17843 on Nov 19, 2007 1:32 PM EST   0 recs

Some more
Here's something from Baseball Prospectus showing the average OPS by position. The actual article revolves around prospects switching positions (like Kelly Johnson), but the ML statistics are interesting.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6516

POS   BAD  AVG  GOOD ELITE
C     666  748  826  853
1B    758  858  952  987
2B    702  762  820  862
3B    718  805  902  958
SS    666  749  829  859
LF    745  825  915  959
CF    691  777  837  851
RF    766  815  867  890
(explanations for categories are at the top of article)

Cabrera's season last year places him as average among ML shortstops (.742 compared to .749), while Edgar is Elite (.860 to .859). Now, recognizing that 2007 was a career year for Edgar, I've averaged their last three seasons together.

Edgar       0.429 SLG + 0.360 OBP = 0.789 OPS
Cabrera     0.389 SLG + 0.331 OBP = 0.720 OPS

Using the handy graph, Edgar is well above average, while Cabrera is below average, also well below Edgar.

by 17843 on Nov 19, 2007 1:55 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Nine legit pitchers
From DOB's blog at the AJC:
"It's extremely important that your starters give you innings," Cox told me. "Tommy can do that. Now we have depth. Last spring we were down to the bare minimum of starters. Now we probably nine legit guys who can go into the rotation and do fine. Tommy allows us to do that."

So I guess the Coxster and I think alike.

by gondeee on Nov 19, 2007 3:05 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Ridiculous
Bobby Cox is frankly delusional if he expects anything more than replacement level work from Carlyle, Bennett, Lerew, Cormier, etc. They just aren't any better than journeymen.

Viewed in context, Bobby might have been referring simply to their ability to eat innings. Below is a list of all Braves' starters and their total starts, 6 IP+ starts, and quality starts (6 IP+ and 3 ER or less).

John Smoltz   32/28/26
Tim Hudson    34/28/25
Chuck James   30/12/11
Buddy Carlyle 20/5/4
Jo-Jo Reyes   10/3/2
Lance Cormier  9/3/2
Anthony Lerew  3/1/1
Jeff Bennett   2/1/1

Tom Glavine   34/26/23
Jair Jurrjens  7/2/1

Now, Jurrjens and Reyes are obviously candidates to improve seeing their youth and inexperience; why would we expect Buddy and Cormier to turn the corner at 30 and 27 when both have plenty of experience?

by 17843 on Nov 19, 2007 4:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Straight form Wren's mouth today....
via Dave O'Brien at Glavine's press conference:

"Wren said they're expecting him (Hampton)to be in the first four rotation spots, leaving the fifth spot as a competition among these four guys: Chuck James, Jair Jurrjens, Jo-Jo Reyes and Jeff Bennett."
So that's 8, but we're splitting hairs.  Does the 5th spot usually go to an established, successful major league guy?  In this day and age, anyway, you're lucky to get that description from the top 3.  We've got it from the top 4, so we can tinker with the 5 spot, which gets skipped often and is a great place for a young guy to break in or a journeyman to provide some level of consistency.

Ever see the commercial where the guy says the opposite of whatever the girl says and he manipulates his answers to get what he wants?   It's an ipod or something.  This feels like that!  Not the manipulation, you know, just the expected disagreement....

by secondbass on Nov 19, 2007 5:22 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I'll disagree
So, basically they expect what I expect, with journeyman Jeff Bennett to fight it out with the two prospects and Chuckie. That sounds about right. If Hampton's healthy, Chuckie should be a solid #5 allowing us to give Reyes and Jurrjens a season to develop. Bennett might be a long relief option.

by 17843 on Nov 19, 2007 5:40 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

totally agree
Its clear to everyone but Williams that the White Sox are not going to compete next year.  Cabrera is getting old and has to be close to free agency.  This trade really helps the Angels and hurts the White Sox.

by jack dein on Nov 19, 2007 1:50 PM EST   0 recs

I read that
both guys have contracts that expire after the 08 season.

by themurph on Nov 19, 2007 2:46 PM EST   0 recs

USS Mariner
More ridiculousness. Garland's adjusted ERA+ (remember that he plays in the US Cellular bandbox) was 112, certainly solid for what will be a #3/4 starter. The Angels can now make a move for Miggy Cabrera knowing that their rotation is secure; allowing them to include Santana and leave Joe Saunders as the #5 starter (103 ERA+ in 18 starts).

As for filling the Cabrera hole, I imagine they could plug Figgins there if they do make the Cabrera move. If not Figgins, Aybar becomes their #9 hitter; the Angels can afford that much. Add Maicer Izturis or Brandon Wood to the list if neither is traded; both have handled the position before.

I'd expect a bunch of Mariners homers to be more concerned about what their team is doing then trying to rip down the Angels' moves by calling Garland a #4 starter (his ERA+ excedes any Mariners starter).

by 17843 on Nov 19, 2007 4:49 PM EST   0 recs

Notes.
I've read that Garland is expected to be a Type B free agent, while Cabrera will likely be a Type A.  While this doesn't seem to make sense, neither do the Elias Rankings in general.  If that turns out to be true, they are in fact rebuilding with this move (esentially improving their own draft pick by weakening their team and improving their FA compensation from a second round pick to a first-rounder) so it's fine.

From what I understood, we were rebuffed when we offered Rents and Reyes for Garland near the deadline.  This was before Garland collapse and lost nearly all value.  You also have to consider that the package the Rox got for Jennings was also offered to the White Sox for Garland.  Williams clearly blew this one, but the deal is not horrible considering my explanation above.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Nov 20, 2007 9:59 AM EST   0 recs

Hmm
If they were honestly looking to rebuild, they probably could've gotten at least one solid prospect, probably more, for Garland; makes more sense than trying to gain ~25 spots in the draft order.

by 17843 on Nov 20, 2007 10:25 AM EST   0 recs

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