$10 Mil is kind of alot for a 3-4 starter, innings-eater type of guy who's clearly on the decline.

is why I don't want to see Tom back in Atlanta.  While I appreciate everything he did for the Braves, losing a 1st round pick, paying him 8-10 million, counting on multiple 40 year olds and a guy recovering from 6000 arm operations is not the stuff of champions.
I just think this has disaster written all over it.
If they do sign him, I will root for him.  But I will never look at the schedule and think, "hey, Tommy's going today, that should be a win."  Instead it will be, "sh*t, Tommy's going against the Rox today, I hope they get 5-6 solid innings.":(

If there's somebody better we can sign or trade for for the same or less money and without gutting our farm system, then by all means get him instead of Glavine. Otherwise Tommy makes all the sense in the world. The Braves are trying to win the World Series in 2008. They aren't concerned about a draft pick that won't be in the majors for 4 or 5 years.

It's not policy in Atlanta to give up draft picks for free agents, so doing it once isn't such a big deal, especially since we have had two straight strong drafts. It's not like at 18 we'll be drafting a 5 tool talent or super polished college hitter, so really what's the problem?

Glavine is our best, perhaps only, remaining chance to rebuild the starting rotation. If we don't sign him we risk a rival signing him and we risk counting on a combo of Carlyle, Reyes, Jurrjens, Hampton, and others making 40% rather than 20% of our starts. We did that last year. We finished in 3rd place.

tom's last start of 0.1 ip and 7 earned runs, his era for the year would have been 4.14 through 200 innings pitched.  that's about what i expect of tom in a braves uniform next year, and that would be pretty remarkable from a 3rd or 4th starter.  people could have said that after '99 when he had a 4.12 era that he was on a decline, but truth being, tom is a finesse pitcher, and a finesse pitcher will get hit often, but his knowledge of the strike zone and the game of baseball will keep him producing.  his strikeout rate in 2006 was abnormally high, and his strikeout rate for 2007 was abnormally low.  i expect him to be about an average of the 2 years, putting up 200 solid innings of 4.00-4.20 era.  that's not expecting too much from a worthy pitcher.

there are better options.  While there are no certainties, I don't think I'd want to press my luck with a rotation of John, Timmy, Glavine, James and Hampton.*  Too many question marks.

*I actually don't believe Hampton will pitch, but if I were an optimist, that would be the rotation.

I'd feel a lot more comfortable if they went out and got a Blanton even if it meant taking the last year of Kotsay.  Two birds with one stone.

Now, if they did that and then signed Tommy.  Not too bad.  But to count on Tommy as the saviour of the rotation is not something I look forward to.

Braves don't seem to draft REAL first rounders, Heyward excluded. The Braves policy seems to have been to draft 'signability' picks, not paying high dollar draft bonuses.

Second... A good free-agent is going to cost A, one, singular, draft-pick.

What's the cost of trading for a good pitcher? Multiple established prospects ready to contribute, and SOON.

If we have to give up a pick, I'd rather sign a guy for 2 or 3 or 4 years. But what free agent this year do you want for 2 or 3 or 4 years, and can we afford them?

Glavine should get on whatever workout regimen Smoltz has been using.

So what if we lose a first round pick, its as easy to find a star in the first round as it is to find a bust. Besides if you are really interested in picks dont worry because we are getting two sandwich picks for Andruw and Mahay. I'd rather have a Glavine then a Carlyle.

No on signing Glavine.  First off I am pissed about what his agent did last year.  Basically blaming the Braves for calling a deadline and saying we didn't care about him.  Wasn't he the guy who left us?

And not caring about giving up draft picks is just stupid.  Draft picks build the farm system which is the most important thing for a team that doesn't spend Yankee or Mets type money on salary.  Sure the first round pick could be a bust but he could be the next great pitcher or player for us.  Also, I can't rationalize giving up a first rounder to a RIVAL team (the Mets) for a one year player.

Here's what's been available in terms of starting pitchers in the area between #18 and the sandwich.

2004 - pick #23 - Phillip Hughes
2003 - pick #24 - Chad Billingsley
2002 - pick #24 - Joe Blanton (Hamels went #17; our #1 that year was Francoeur, #23
2001 - pick #30 - Noah Lowry
2001 - pick #26 - Jeremy Bonderman
2000 - pick #29 - Adam Wainright (who later became a victim of short term thinking himself)
1998 - pick #20 - CC Sabathia

I think we can hope that the Mets don't offer Glavine arbitration, but if they do I see him as an innings eater who wins 10-14 games. Wouldn't we be better off giving Reyes, Jurrgens (or Hampton, Bennett, or Morton) the innings and hope to draft a guy like the above to rebuild on a foundation of young pitching?

Honestly, we're going to resort to hoping that Hampton is healthy, that Bennett and Carlyle don't pitch like the journeyman they are, that Reyes and Jurrjens mature into mid-rotation starters?

1. That's seven very good pitchers, but only seven out of the 91 players selected with picks 18-30 from 1998 to 2004. Sure, we might hit the lottery and manage to draft one, but we might also draft Kurt Ainsworth, Blake Williams, or Josh Garrett with a combined 168.2 IP and a 5.19 ERA career. As I said, the draft is a crap shoot.

This is a list of Braves first rounders from 1995-2004, excluding the last three years because few reach the bigs that quick.

Atilano - bust
Salty - regular
Francoeur - regular
Meyer - bust
McBride - fringe big leaguer at best
Burrus - bust
Lewis - bust
Wainwright - regular
Thorman - fringe
Johnson - regular
Herr - bust
Cameron - bust
Zapp - bust
Marquis - regular
Hutchinson - bust

Even the vaunted Braves scouting team only succeeded in picking five regulars out of fifteen picks.

We can manage to survive with the depth of young pitching we have to give up a single draft pick in exchange for a more stable rotation. I want to be competitive next year seeing how we're not guaranteed to have Tex any longer, Chipper and Smoltz aren't getting younger, Bobby's leaving soon, etc. I can tolerate "hoping" that one of Reyes/Carlyle/Jurrjens/Bennett/Hampton pitches well; I can't tolerate hoping two of them pitch well.

2. Who cares if it's the Mets. The Mets have shown their scouting department is rubbish at drafting, most of their prospect talent is international guys. And our system is stronger anyway.

Besides it being "The Mets, oh my gosh" there's no difference in giving up the pick to any other NL team.

There's no certainty our scouts will nab the next Hughes, Sabathia, Blanton, etc., but the record shows that a pitcher like this is available just about every year at slot #18.

There's no comparison between the value of a young pitcher like those and a pitcher who appears near the end of the line. We MUST NOT succumb to sentimentalism about Glavine.

Young pitching kept us in the WS hunt for 9 years. But lately we've been dealing away youth for the one year plan. Russ Ortiz? JD Drew? First we'd make it to the LCS, then we were first round losers, now we've finished out of the playoffs two years in a row now. Anyone see a trend here?

Short term thinking and old players = slow death. Tom Glavine with his current skills couldn't even get the Mets and all their talent into the playoffs.

We should focus on re-signing Teixiera, so that the group of young talent we traded for him isn't entirely wasted the way Wainwright was. Then we should focus on developing young starters with their futures still ahead of them, to complement the vets at the top of our rotation.