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The 29 Most Important Braves During the Streak: #1, John Smoltz


He gets the top spot on this list because of his tenure, longer than Chipper or any other player. He gets top spot even though Maddux and Glavine have more Cy Young Awards. He gets the top spot because of his unselfishness in going from one of the best starters in the game to one of the best closers in the game and back to one of the best starters in the game. But most of all John Smoltz gets the top spot on this list because he is THE FORCE in the postseason; a 15-4 record and a 2.65 ERA, and he was a reliever for four years.

Think about how much further we may have gotten in the postseason with John Smoltz as a starter from 2001 to 2004. Just think if we could have started Smoltz instead of Ortiz, or Wright, or even Glavine, who couldn't win in '02. It could have been Smoltz matching up with the power of Arizona's Johnson or Schilling in 01. Smoltz's 15 career postseason wins are the most by any player in baseball history, of course these days there are a lot more rounds to the postseason and John has amazingly pitched in the fourth most postseason games. Part of what makes him a force in the postseason is his ability to get the strikeout when he needs it. He's a power pitcher and that usually translates well to short postseason series. In fact, Smoltz has the most strikeouts in postseason history - a whopping 194 in 207 postseason innings pitched. Compare all that with Glavine and Maddux who have been good in the postseason, but not great like Smoltz - evidenced by each of them being one and two with the most losses in postseason history, where as Smoltz doesn't even register in the top-20 in that department.

When people talk about Hall of Fame credentials, Smoltz is certainly one of those who took the Dennis Eckersley route. Eckersley may not have been as good of a starting pitcher as Smoltz was, but his career as a closer lasted longer and was at times more dominant than Smoltz. But Smoltz did something that Eck did not; he went back to being a dominant starting pitcher after being a closer, and still remained a dominant strikeout pitcher. With another solid year in 2007, Smoltz could be on the verge of putting up numbers that no one else ever has: 200+ wins, 150+ saves, and 3000+ strikeouts. Those are first ballot Hall of Fame numbers.

This list is all about the pitchers and the hitters who were the most important players to the Braves during their amazing 15-year run, and while there are a lot of great players on the list and while many of you could argue that others deserve to be up here at the top, the point remains that after Glavine and Maddux have gone on to other teams in other cities, Smoltz is still here. He is still here taking a LOT less than he could probably get on the open market. He could have gotten more three years ago when he signed an extension with the Braves. He could have gotten more five years ago when he was a free agent. Others have left, and have gotten more, but Smoltz has stayed and with him the traditions of the Braves pitching staff and its recent and rich history have remained. There is a reason guys like Chuck James and Kyle Davies and Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann have such respect playing for the Braves. That reason is the John Smoltz.

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Smoltz
I agree with you 100%! I would have ranked the top 5 exactly the same way. Smoltz is about winning, playing hard, giving his all and respect for the game. He is a bright light in the Braves organization because of the excellent type of individual he is. Gotta love Smoltz if you're a true Braves fan.

by Bravosfan on Jan 24, 2007 11:18 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

my heart and my brain have battles
if my heart were to get its way, then yes, i would say smoltz is #1 on the list.  however, when the title of the list is "29 most important braves during the streak", my brain tells me maddux.   the streak consisted of winning the division.  the division is won during the regular season, thus making maddux my #1.  if the list is based on (which, obviously these are pieces of your criteria)leadership, dedication, and unselfishness, and not just performance on the field, then the 1 and 2 should stand.  but, just based on performance, i would go maddux.  great list!  enjoyed the debate! thanks for your dedication to keeping the site up! :)

by ryan c on Jan 24, 2007 11:36 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Low Ranking
ROTO-Authority has our starting pitching staff ranked #13 in the NL, only ahead of Washington, Pittsburgh, and Colorado.  i dont know about you guys, but i expect much better numbers than that out of our rotation.  hopefully, we can manage to be a top 4-5 rotation in the league, but i am sure we can at least be top 10. see link.  

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2007/01/best_starting_r.html

by ryan c on Jan 24, 2007 11:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Rotoauthority, Schmotoautority.
Those rankings are been widely critisized by fans of almost every team over on MLBTradeRumors and rightfully so.  Whomever was responsible over there even went so far as to break Atlanta's projection down for us and I found that remarkable.  Here is what he predicts for our individual starters' ERA:

Smoltz - 3.57
Hudson - 4.12
James - 4.76
Davies - 5.33
Hampton - 5.26

I did my own "projection" for Hampton (because I thought that was the most absurd figure of all) using nothing but averages of his stats as a Brave and came up with the following line for 2007:

24 GS, 11-7, 144 IP, 1.43 WHIP, 4.27 ERA, 4.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9

Those might not be sterling numbers, but they're much better than what he projected.  I mean, that's basically a full run less in the ERA for Hampton!  I also happen to think that the improved bullpen should make for a better record, something more like 12-6 or even 13-5 in just 24 starts.  I'll do similar "projections" for the rest of our staff to see just how wrong Rotoauthority really is.

by ejruiz on Jan 24, 2007 2:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think
I don't think roto's projections are not that far off.  Roto's projection are always criticized by everyone before the season because they want to believe their favorite team/player is going to be significantly better than their realistic expectations.  And Roto more often right than wrong.

BP's projections are very close to theirs as are James' and Shandlers.  Your projection is incredibly optimistic for Hampton.  I think it's naive to expect that will come back from TJS and a year and a half off with no Mazone and pitch significantly better than league average at age 34.  Or that he will pitch as well as he did with Mazzone, a better defense and a few less miles on the odometer.  If Hampton has an ERA below 5, I'll be surprised.

I wish the Braves could trade Hampton to some team with more money than brains while they're still seeing that 3.5 ERA in 70 innings from 2005 rather than the guy owed gigantic wads of cash.

Talk about having too much of your salary tied up in one player...

by mhsiegel14 on Jan 25, 2007 5:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

One Day
When these guys retire -- hopefully at least a few years from now! -- I say we get Smoltz, Maddux and Glavine together for one big ceremony and retire all three of their numbers.  As a matter of hiistory, they were the greatest trio of pitchers in baseball history -- yes, even better than the Feller-Lemon Indians, even better than Three Finger Brown and the Cubs of a century ago.  You've got one first-ballot HOF who will finish his career with the second-most wins since World War II, easily one of the ten best pitchers in history.  You've got another, Tom Glavine, who is this generation's Warren Spahn.  And the third is this generations Whitey Ford.

I think Smoltz is not quite in the HOF yet.  He needs 200 wins and at least 1 or 2 more good seasons.  One way I like to think of it is this: how much is a save worth in wins?  Let's say a save s worth 1/3 of a win.  This would make a 50-save season equal to a 17-win season.  That sounds about right to me.  A great closer is not as valuable as a great starter, but he is as valuable as aa very good starter.

So Smoltz has 193 wins and 154 saves.  By my simplistic method, this adds up to 244 "wins".  Now we've got a guy approaching 250 "wins" with a career ERA 0.9 better than the league AND a Sterling post-season record.

If that's not a HOF pitcher, I don't know what is.

by mhsiegel14 on Jan 24, 2007 1:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

More Comments
They funny thing about Smoltz is that if you'd told me in 1991 we would be talking about a potential Cooperstown future, I would have called you a lying scumbag.  In his early career, he was very erratic and spent a lot of time with a sports psychologist.  Getting his head on straight in mid-1991 (he had an ERA of 5.5 on July 31; then under 1.5 for the rest of the season) was a big step in turning the franchise around.  And it's wonderful to see that now he's the one working with the youngsters, trying to keep them from giving in to the stress.

(I can still remember picking up my little brother from summer camp in '91 and explaining to him that the Braves were fighting for first place.  He thought it was a joke.  I distinctly remember him asking about Smoltz.)

The more I look at his record, the more impressive it is.  He hasn't had an ERA below league average since his ROOKIE year.  He's had an ERA north of 4 ONCE in the last 15 years.  He has a carer K/BB ratio of 3.

Had it not been for injuries, Smoltz would be a no-doubt HOF guy.  By my reckoning, injuries have cost him 200 starts (projecting about 30 a year if he had not been a closer).  At his career rates, he would now be at 280 wins and 4000 K's.  Now obvously, a player doesn't get credit for what he MIGHT have done.  we could play that game all day with guys like Dwight Gooden or Gary Nolan.  But it puts his career rates in perspective.  That when healthy, Smoltz has been one of the top pitchers in baseball history.

by mhsiegel14 on Jan 24, 2007 2:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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