Schuerholz and Cox Respond to the Betemit Trade

by gondeee on Jul 28, 2006 11:57 PM EDT in Beat Blogging

Just after the Friday night game against the Mets ended, the master of the deadline deals pulled off another trade for a valuable bullpen arm. John Schuerholz and the Atlanta Braves sent uber utility infielder Wilson Betemit to the Los Angeles Dodgers for right-handed pitcher Danys Baez and infielder Willy Aybar. When asked if he was done trading, Schuerholz wiped his hand slowly across his forehead and with an exhausted look on his face said, "We're done for tonight."

As thrilled as both Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz were to once again make a substantial upgrade to their bullpen, they also seemed more than thrilled to have acquired Aybar. A quick glance over his Minor League and Major League stats and nothing initially stand out, but the kid looks like a quality infielder. His .250 batting average with the Dodgers this year is also not that impressive, but look again and you'll see a .356 on-base percentage and more walks than strikeouts, and you realize that's the kind of player this strikeout prone Braves team needs. Aybar strikes out only once every 8.5 plate appearances compared to Betemit who strikes out once every 3.8 plate appearances.

Bobby Cox said of the trade, "Another closer that two years ago back to back he had close to 80 saves. And Aybar's one of the better prospects around. He's up there now, switch hitter, 23 years old; he's supposed to be a great looking player." Cox must be thrilled to have two proven closers in his bullpen after having previously had three failed closers.

Schuerholz heaped all sorts of praise on the new infielder he had just acquired. "Aybar's a very talented young player," said the GM. "Outstanding reports on him throughout his Minor League career and we like him a lot. Aybar's a 23 year old whose abilities are well appreciated by our scouting staff out there who have seen him, both in the Minor Leagues and in the Major Leagues." He continued, saying Willy's a "strong offensive player, a switch-hitter, and we get an arm for our bullpen for this year and we'll see beyond that."

About Baez the GM said, "We like how he pitched in Tampa Bay the last two years. We think in the role he's going to fill for us, he'll be another big arm to add to our bullpen to make it stronger." He stated that Baez will be the setup man for Wickman, but will also be able to close on days when Wickman can't go.

When a reporter brought up that Schuerholz finally got two of the guys they were talking about getting in Dallas during the Winter Meetings last off-season, the embattled GM once again put his hand on his forehead, took a deep breath and said, "It took a few months, but we got them."

Who will he be sending down from the bullpen? "Oh, oh I don't know," said the GM. "We haven't discussed that yet." Schuerholz looked exhausted, but he also seemed satisfied at what he had accomplished.

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Comments

Yikes..

I'm not so sure this was a good deal. Maybe I haven't had enough time for it to rattle around in the ole bean.

But I just get this feeling we got hosed.

by RainDelay on Jul 29, 2006 12:22 AM EDT 0 recs

I don't like this:

First, Baez is not that hot a commodity. Yeah, he's a Proven Closer (TM) who, at 29, has a career ERA of 3.76, a good-but-not-great K/BB ratio of 2.0, less than a strikeout an inning. He's a failed starting pitcher who looks better on fantasy sheets than he does on the mound.

He's an improvement but only because the bullpen has been such a disaster. Baker at BP pointed out that our bullpen as the worst K/BB ratio of any bullpen in the last five years.

Aybar? I just looked at BP's projections. They show hims a 3-win player in the forseeable future. He's about replacement level witha chance of becoming an everyday player at his peak. He projects to be worth slightly less than Betemit, mostly from lack of power -- but Wilson was outperforming his projection. I would put more on his future than on Aybar's.

The inclusion of Aybar makes this trade not a dsiaster. But I still don't like it.

by mhsiegel14 on Jul 29, 2006 5:15 AM EDT 0 recs

Does Anyone

Know Baez's contract status, BTW? Is he a free agent at the end of the year? Getting a draft pick if he leaves (assuming they offer arbitration -- never a guarantee) would sweeten the deal sslightly.

by mhsiegel14 on Jul 29, 2006 5:17 AM EDT 0 recs

Tough Trade to Like

Baez is a free agent at the end of the season and Aybar looks like a good prospect but not better than Betemit.

I want to believe that the post-season is still a viable outcome to the season but it is getting harder to believe given the 1 - 3 homestand and the poor starting pitching. Baez looks like more of the same with his numbers this season.

I would have preferred that the Braves keep Bemenit and move Giles in the offseason. Bemenit is cheaper and would have allowed the Braves to use Giles $ for pitching help for next season.

by rpjonesga on Jul 29, 2006 10:17 AM EDT 0 recs

It's Going To Take...

...at least a split of these next two with the Mets and then a .600-plus August, which is do-able if you take a look at the opposition, to be in the thick of the WC hunt in September.

Gotta get Huddy and HoRam going. Gotta, gotta, gotta.

by Piff Bocoroba on Jul 29, 2006 10:39 AM EDT up 0 recs

600 ball isn't going to get it done!

Piff - Playing .600 the rest of the way would only give the Braves 84 wins which will not be good enough to win the WC. If the Braves go .600 then the Reds would only have to go 30 - 29 the rest of the way to win 85.

Baseball Prospectus calculates the Braves' chances of making the playoffs at only 8.6%. JS probably should have accepted that the season is almost over and not traded Betemit. I might have liked it a lot better (along with the Wickman deal) a month ago but now it just seems to be way too little way too late.

by rpjonesga on Jul 29, 2006 11:21 AM EDT 0 recs

I'm With You On The 84 Wins, jonesy...

...but I didn't say .600 ball the rest of the season would win the WC. I wrote that it would take a .600-PLUS AUGUST just to be in the mix for September. Just to have a shot. Which is what I'm hoping they can still salvage from this season...a fun and meaningful September.

by Piff Bocoroba on Jul 29, 2006 11:41 AM EDT up 0 recs

You are right Piff

Piff - my apologies. You didn't say that 600 ball would win the wild card.

Our whole exchange seems pretty silly given the way that the Braves have played the last couple of days. I would advocate the Braves immediately becoming sellers. They should attempt to flip Wickman and Baez for players that can help them next season. Those two guys are going to be free agents at the end of the season and will do us no good the rest of this season given our horrible starting pitching. Ramirez and Hudson had nothing in this series and I have no confidence in Chucky James tomorrow. It's not too late to sell!!!

by rpjonesga on Jul 29, 2006 8:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Except...

Where was Betemit going to play anyway? And remember, the Braves are loaded with infield prospects (Andrus, Escobar, Campbell). I think JS did pretty well considering the Yankees wouldn't even deal Scott Proctor for Betemit. A Baez-Wickman combo in the pen sounds a lot better than anything we've had in, well, a long time. That's why it drives me crazy to just look at the numerical analysis provided by my friends (yes, they really are my friends) over at BP.

Joe Hamrahi

by jhamrahi on Jul 29, 2006 1:04 PM EDT 0 recs

BP's Take on the Trade

Joe - Here is a good summary of the trade by BP. I think that Christina Karl has it about right especially the last part about the Marte and Betemit trades being especially hurtful to the future of the team.

From BP:

raded INF-B Wilson Betemit to the Dodgers for RHP Danys Baez, 2B/3B-B Willy Aybar, and cash. [7/28]

And... that's it? Don't get me wrong, I really like Aybar as a second baseman. His bat plays well there, he'll only be 24 next year, and this year's bust-out at the plate at Las Vegas might provide encouragement that he'll be a good regular at the position. Unfortunately, he really only plays second, and summoning up memories of Pedro Guerrero during his moonlighting as a third baseman, just because in the Dodgers' organization, they've always liked fiddling around. And can Betemit play shortstop? Only if asked, and there are some things you should only ask for in an emergency. So I don't buy the argument that the Braves got an infielder anywhere close to as valuable as Betemit. Betemit can play third and short, and he's not only a more established hitter, he's simply better, especially in the power department. Since Betemit's only 24 now, it isn't like he's reached his peak--he has considerable future value. And expense? Betemit won't be arbitration-eligible this winter.

So, for all that, the Braves would have to get themselves a hell of an evener, right? Wrong. They got the consistently less-than-advertised Cubano, Baez, to be the set-up man people have heard of to support newly-rented closer Bob Wickman. Even if you buy that the Braves have a shot from 6 1/2 games out in the wild-card race, and if you believe that getting a reliever was a difference-making move (a no less dodgy proposition), and if you subscribe to the idea that to pursue the wild card and to get a reliever, Betemit wasn't only their best chit to trade, he was the one they had to deal to get something to help them, then maybe you see this as a deal that did Atlanta some good. Me, it looks like they're pursuing an already difficult objective with even less than they had going for them before they made the deal. What happens when Chipper Jones breaks down again, or if Edgar Renteria needs a weekend off? How does it help that fragile bid on contention when you now have to turn to Pete Orr, because he can play the infield positions that Aybar can't?

I guess there's the notional virtue that the Braves won't be fiddling around with all that talk of moving Chipper to the outfield any more, not now that Betemit's gone. Should they elect to deal Marcus Giles after this season, there's the money saved by plugging Aybar in at second, but they'd really need to get something for Giles, and the year he's had doesn't help them with that. As deadline mistakes go, this may be one of John Schuerholz's worst. Between discarding Andy Marte and Betemit, the GM has put a serious dent in his franchise's future.

by rpjonesga on Jul 29, 2006 8:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

Let's Take a Step Back a Second...

We are in an unprecedented area here. The Braves haven't lost the division in 14 years so we're all a little spoiled. Sure, we can criticize this deal or that one and say it will hurt our future, but none of us really know. The bottom line is that the end had to come at some point. We don't throw around money anymore the way the Yankees do. So it's tough to always be winners.

Two years ago, Wilson Betemit was about to be called the prospect who would never turn into anything. He was so highly touted, but had looked awful at times, even in the minors. In 2002, he hit .245 with 8 homers. In 2003, he hit .262 with 8 homers. In 2004, he hit .278 with 13 homers. Maybe he's turned the corner, but are we sure? And there's no guarantee Andy Marte is going to thrive in the majors. He still has a lot to prove. Not to mention, who would be playing SS for us if we didn't trade Marte?

Again, we're completely forgetting the fact that the Braves are dealing from an area of strength in their system. Elvis Andrus and Yunel Escobar are two of the team's top 5 prospects. And Eric Campbell isn't too shabby either.

In my mind, trading Marte for a 31 year-old starting SS who's hitting .320 wasn't a bad move. Renteria still has some good years ahead of him and again, there's no guarantee that Marte does anything.

Maybe Betemit will turn into a very good player, but we've yet to see him perform over a full season. I'm not in love with Aybar like others, but I can live with him as a backup infielder when I know we have guys like Andrus, Campbell, and Escobar in the minors.

Remember, at this point, Betemit was still a BACKUP infielder for the Braves. You can't argue with starting Chipper and Renteria over Wilson, and it would take a lot for Bobby to kick Giles off second.

Bottom line to me is that it was worth a shot to deal a part-time Betemit for a reliever, that is far better than what we have now, and a backup infielder with some nice secondary skills given the fact that Andrus, Escobar, and Campbell are waiting in the wings.

Joe Hamrahi

by jhamrahi on Jul 29, 2006 11:57 PM EDT 0 recs

Hey, Joe...You Know...

...how in that "other" sport, they always say that the most popular player on the team is the backup quarterback? There's a lot of that in play here. There would be a whole lot less grinding of teeth about the Betemit deal if Marcus was having a good year and Chipper wasn't hurt.

I will say this on behalf of our GM: He never publicly bitches about the significant limits on the club purse strings imposed by the suits upstairs. And while I'm not crazy about the Betemit deal, I do appreciate JS sending the message that this season isn't being written off yet.

by Piff Bocoroba on Jul 30, 2006 7:42 AM EDT up 0 recs

Fair enough..

Your points are valid Piff, and I respect your take on the situation. I just don't think losing Betemit will affect us as much as others do...but I may be proven wrong.

Joe Hamrahi

by jhamrahi on Jul 30, 2006 2:02 PM EDT 0 recs