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Braves Prospect Reviews

Braves NRI In-Depth: Andrelton Simmons

Andrelton Simmons could be one of the best defensive shortstops in the Major Leagues right now.

Despite being drafted by the Braves in the second round of the 2010 draft as a pitcher, Andrelton Simmons had a nice debut season with Rookie level Danville as a shortstop, hitting .276 with a .695 OPS, 11 doubles, 26 RBI, and 18 stolen bases. He followed that up with an excellent 2011 with High A Lynchburg,, winning the Carolina League batting title by hitting .311, and adding a .759 OPS, 35 doubles, 52 RBI, and 26 stolen bases. That season opened some eyes around baseball, as he was named the 65th best prospect in the game by MLB.com.

Simmons' calling card is his phenomenal defense. Wiry and quick, makes good reads and is athletic enough to make plays most other shortstops couldn't dream of attempting. His arm is capable of producing 95mph fastballs off the mound, and he uses it to make lightning fast, accurate throws over to first. He could play defense in the Major Leagues right now and already be one of the best defenders in the game.

He showed himself more than capable with the bat with Lynchburg, though there are concerns for him offensively. He's a pure contact hitter, and while that leads to a low strikeout rate, fanning in 7.5% of his plate appearances, it also leads to a poor walk rate, as he earned a free pass in just 5% of his trips to the plate. He also doesn't offer much in the way of slugging, with just 26% of his hits going for extra bases. Jack Wilson, similar glove-first player, has hit 26% of his career at bats for extra bases, and the epitome of glove first players, Omar Vizquel, has only seen 21% of his hits go for extra bases, while striking out in 9% of his plate appearances and walking in 8.6%. It's easy to envision Simmons being the kind of player Vizquel has been over his career, and if he could come close to providing the .272/.337/.353/.690 slash line the 11 time Gold Glove winner has in his career, Simmons would be an excellent Major Leaguer.

Still relatively new to the game at 22 years old, Simmons' big goal in Spring Training is just to gain experience by spending time with veterans such as Wilson, absorbing all the information and knowledge he possibly can. He'll go to Mississippi to start 2012, looking to refine his game and prove he deserves a shot at the Majors in 2013.

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Braves NRI In-Depth: Joe Terdoslavich

There's much more concern over Joe Terdoslavich's glove than his powerful bat.

After the Braves selected him in the 6th round of the 2010 draft out of Long Beach State University, Joe Terdoslavich had a nice debut, hitting .302 with a .766 OPS, 19 doubles, and 34 RBI in 70 games between Rookie level Danville and Low Rome, splitting time between first and third base. He shifted over to first base full time in 2011, and had a great season for High A Lynchburg, hitting .286 with a .867 OPS, 20 homers, 82 RBI, and he broke a 65 year old Carolina League record by clubbing out 52 doubles.

As excited as the Braves are about Terdoslavich's future, there are some real question marks surrounding him, mostly on the defensive side of things. He was a third baseman in college, but struggled there with Danville and Rome, committing 10 errors in just 36 games. He struggled at first for those squads as well, committing 11 errors in 33 games, though it was his first time playing the position. He was more steady with Lynchburg in 2011, committing 10 errors in 106 games, though that's still a high total for a first baseman. Terdoslavich has hard hands and has trouble with fluidity and flexibility when it comes to fielding. Despite his troubles, the Braves are going to move him back to third base in 2012, mainly because they feel his bat will allow him to move quickly through the organization and Freddie Freeman has already established himself as Atlanta's first baseman.

While he doesn't have any chance of leaving Spring Training with a Major League roster spot, it should still be a fruitful experience for Terdoslavich, who will work closely with infield coach Terry Pendleton, who played 1785 games at the hot corner in the Majors after moving there from second base. He'll also benefit from playing alongside Chipper Jones, who has played 1889 game at third base after converting from shortstop. Even veteran Jack Wilson, who only has 4 games of third base to his credit, should be able to help with his vast knowledge of the best ways to field a baseball.

How important a part of Atlanta's 2013 Terdoslavich is will be determined by how well he can handle third base with Mississippi in 2012, because while there are some things he can work on with his offensive game, striking out less and taking more walks, there's a good chance his powerful bat will translate well at the higher levels.

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FanGraphs Returns Sanity To Atlanta Braves 2012 Top-15 Prospects

Julio Teheran returns to the top of a Braves prospects ranking.

After Keith Law got me to flail my arms around yesterday in curfuddled disagreement, Marc Hulet of FanGraphs puts the Braves prospects universe back into order with a sane (and boring, I guess, but that's good) list.

  1. Julio Teheran, RHP
  2. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
  3. Randall Delgado, RHP
  4. Tyler Pastornicky, SS
  5. Sean Gilmartin, LHP
  6. Andrelton Simmons, SS
  7. Christian Bethancourt, C
  8. Edward Salcedo, SS
  9. Zeke Spruill, RHP
  10. Brandon Drury, 3B
  11. J.R. Graham, RHP
  12. Matt Lipka, OF
  13. J.J. Hoover, RHP
  14. Carlos Perez, LHP
  15. Joe Terdoslavich, 1B
    Sleeper: Navery Moore, RHP

Good writeups on the site, and a good list. I guess for the record I should tell you what my top-25 Braves prospects look like. I put my list together in late October last year, so no AFL performances were considered (and I'm not sure I would have put too much weight on them anyway). My top-25 after the jump (so you can bash me if you'd like). Note that the official Talking Chop top-25 is an average of my rankings, CB's, and Matt's.

Continue reading this post »

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Braves NRI In-Depth: Stefan Gartrell

Stefan Gartrell will return to AAA Gwinnett in 2012, providing the team a powerful cleanup hitter while waiting for his chance in Atlanta.

A couple of weeks into the 2011 season, the Braves plucked Stefan Gartrell off waivers from the White Sox and he rewarded them by providing Gwinnett with a consistent, powerful cleanup hitter, putting up a .260 average and .834 OPS while clubbing out 28 doubles, and setting single season Gwinnett records with 25 homers and 91 RBI. He was originally drafted by the White Sox out of San Fransisco University in the 31st round of the 2006 draft and showed consistent pop at every level before busting out in AA in 2009 by hitting .285 with a .892 OPS, 20 doubles, 19 homers and 70 RBI for Birmingham.

In the last two plus years at AAA, Gartrell has posted a slash line of .259/.325/.475/.800, walking in 7.5% of his plate appearances, and striking out in 24.5% of his plate appearances. He just turned 28 years old, so he's essentially the hitter he's going to be, a slugger who's going to strike out a lot if given a chance in the Majors. He has a strong, powerful frame, standing 6'3" and weighing in at 230. Like most sluggers, Gartrell can succumb to getting fooled and taking huge whiffs, but he's shown himself capable of hitting enough at AAA to remain productive. In the outfield, he plays almost exclusively in right field, though is just as capable of playing left, but is at best an average defender. His bulk makes him slow to the ball, but he makes up for it by positioning himself well and reading the ball off the bat quickly. He does have an above average, accurate arm.

If Gartrell is going to get a chance in Atlanta, it's likely to come off the bench, and for the moment Matt Diaz is the team's right handed hitting corner outfielder off the pine. It's likely the team's last bench spot will go to a speedy outfielder who can play center field, like Jose Constanza or Luis Durango, so there's little chance Gartell is going to break camp on Atlanta's roster. Still, after a year in the organization they know his value, and he can further showcase his skills during Spring Training, so that if an injury or two arises during the year, he could provide a nice power bat off Atlanta's bench.

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Keith Law's Top-10 2012 Atlanta Braves Prospects

According to Keith Law, Arodys Vizcaino is the Braves' number-one prospect.

Keith Law of ESPN has released his top-10 2012 Atlanta Braves prospects. Let me just say, there are some surprises (the numbers beside the top-4 indicate what their rank is on Law's top-100 list):

Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (14)
Julio Teheran, RHP (18)
Christian Bethancourt, C (94)
Randall Delgado, RHP (98)
Andrelton Simmons, SS
Tyler Pastornicky, SS
Sean Gilmartin, LHP
Zeke Spruill, RHP
J.R. Graham, RHP
Matt Lipka, OF

So first, Arodys Vizcaino! Wait, that's not so shocking, let me back up. Julio Teheran at number 18! Does Law know something that no one else does? He ranks six pitchers ahead of Teheran (including Vizcaino), and while I could see a case for a couple of them, I still don't get it. Law ranked Teheran sixth in his 2011 top-100, but while the writeup on him this year says "he's farther away than he appeared to be a year ago," that still doesn't explain dropping him that much in the rankings. It seems to me that Law is viewing Teheran with a glass half empty eye and viewing other guys with similar development paths as glass half full prospects.

He ranks Bethancourt very aggressively, and ahead of Delagdo, but that's likely more about how much he's soured on Delgado than anything else. Here is some of what he says about Delgado in his scouting report, which also gives us some insight into his thoughts about Teheran and Vizcaino (my emphasis):

One thing that became clear during the 2011 season about Atlanta's troika of top pitching prospects is that Delgado, while a strong prospect in his own right, didn't belong in the same discussion as Julio Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino. He didn't possess Teheran's stuff and projection, or Vizcaino's control and plus breaking ball. While those two arms progressed last year, Delgado remains as he was, with a solid-average fastball that will touch 96 mph and an above-average changeup that won't miss enough bats on its own, especially without another pitch to move away from right-handed hitters and keep them honest.

He is still projectable with a loose arm, but the upside of his two system-mates hasn't rubbed off on him. There's a good enough chance that Delgado ends up in the bullpen because of the lack of a third pitch to drop him a level on these rankings, as he's more like a No. 3 or a No. 4 in a rotation or a setup man if he goes to the pen.

Look at how he sees not only Delgado against the other two guys, but at how he describes Teheran versus Vizcaino. Teheran is "stuff and projection," a work in progress, while Vizcaino is "control and plus breaking ball," without any qualifiers about "projection." In Vizcaino's scouting report, Law says "he's a three-pitch starter who has a history of plus control, and just needs time and health to become a No. 1 or No. 2 starter."

I read all that (or maybe I'm reading into all that) as Law just likes Vizcaino better than Teheran from a stuff perspective, even though both have question marks, so he's doing a bit of picking favorites. All of that is perfectly okay in any kind of prospect analysis, but we can respectfully disagree (and I do). This was reflected in last year's rankings, when Law had Freddie Freeman at number-43, and didn't even rank Craig Kimbrel. Those two guys, by the way, finished first and second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. (Maybe that's a good sign for Teheran and Delgado.)

No Edward Salcedo on this list either, and with his tools I would have expected to see him. Especially ahead of Lipka, a prospect that Salcedo out-performed at the same level.

95 comments  | 

Braves NRI In-Depth: Zeke Spruill

Zeke Spruill will look to build on his promising 2011 by starting 2012 back in AA Mississippi's rotation.

The Braves have always thought highly of Zeke Spruill's talent. They selected him in the second round of the 2008 out of high school, and he quickly showed his potential with an All-Star season for Rome in 2009. Unfortunately, he also showed his youth and immaturity, as he earned a month-long demotion to the Gulf Coast League that season for repeatedly breaking team rules. Things got worse in 2010, as he not only pitched poorly, but missed half of the season after breaking his hand punching a wall in frustration. Fortunately, Spruill turned himself around and contributed a fine 2011 season, that saw him post a 3.19 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 129.2 innings for High A Lynchburg, then follow that with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 45 innings with AA Mississippi. He also showed off his durability, tossing 6 complete games during the season and averaging over 6 innings per start.

Spruill's stuff is only average, a low 90s fastball paired with a changeup and a slider, but he makes the most of it with a bulldog mentality, attacking the hitters, forcing them to put the ball in play, allowing his defense to work behind him. With his immaturity issues seemingly, hopefully, behind him, Spruill was able to re-establish himself as one of Atlanta's most solid prospects, as he is easy to project either as an innings eating back of the rotation starter or a more than solid bullpen contributor.

This is his first invitation to Major League Spring Training, and while he'll begin 2012 back in Mississippi's rotation with a number of talented young pitchers ahead of him on the depth chart, Spruill can do a lot for his career by making a good impression during camp. He's likely to end up with AAA Gwinnett before the season is over, and under the right set of circumstances, he could see time on Atlanta's roster.

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Kevin Goldstein Of Baseball Prospectus Releases His 2012 Top-20 Braves Prospects

Randall Delgado gets the number-2 prospect nod from Baseball Prospectus, and he's also rated as a five-star prospect along with Teheran.

Here it is, more prospect goodness from Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

1. Julio Teheran, RHP
2. Randall Delgado, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Christian Bethancourt, C
5. Andrelton Simmons, SS
6. Tyler Pastornicky, SS
7. Sean Gilmartin, LHP
8. Edward Salcedo, 3B
9. Matt Lipka, OF
10. Zeke Spruill, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
11. J.R. Graham, RHP

Nine More:
12. Nick Ahmed, SS
13. J.J. Hoover, RHP
14. Joe Terdoslavich, 1B/3B
15. Kyle Kubitza, 3B
16. Brandon Drury, 3B
17. Carlos Perez, LHP
18. Adam Milligan, OF
19. Todd Cunningham, OF
20. Billy Bullock, RHP

No real surprises here. Like Mayo did yesterday, Goldstein lists Nick Ahmed really high, which in my opinion is a huge over-ranking of him. Mycal Jones is absent from this list, though Cunningham is present. I'd list Jones ahead of Cunningham, though Goldstein does list Jones as his "sleeper" later on in the article.

On of the things that he does in his organizational reviews is to list the top young talents in the organization, not just prospects. Here is that list:

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/86 or later)
1. Tommy Hanson, RHP
2. Jason Heyward, OF
3. Craig Kimbrel, RHP
4. Julio Teheran, RHP
5. Freddie Freeman, 1B
6. Brandon Beachy, RHP
7. Mike Minor, LHP
8. Randall Delgado, RHP
9. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
10. Christian Bethancourt, C

Just look at that list of players; the top-9 are ready to contribute, or already are contributing, right now. Included in that top-9 is an entire starting rotation, plus a dominant closer and setup man. That's just sick (in a really awesome way). An entire starting rotation 25 years old or younger ... WOW!

Good stuff as always by Kevin Goldstein, and I encourage you to read the full article and prospect reviews here. Most of it is subscription only, but there's no time like the present to get a Baseball Prospectus subscription.

56 comments  | 

MLB's Jonathan Mayo Releases His 2012 Top-20 Braves Prospects

People don't realize how good Arodys Vizcaino really is. The big question we'll be asking ourselves this spring is if the Braves will once again push him into a relief role or allow him to go back to starting.

It's going to get fast and furious with prospects this week. Today we got an Atlanta Braves prospect list from MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo, then tomorrow we get the Baseball Prospectus list from Kevin Goldstein. Finally on Friday, ESPN's Keith Law releases his top-10 for each organization.

Here is Mayo's top-20 list:

  1. Julio Teheran, RHP
  2. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
  3. Randall Delgado, RHP
  4. Andrelton Simmons, SS
  5. Christian Bethancourt, C
  6. Sean Gilmartin, LHP
  7. Tyler Pastornicky, SS
  8. Joe Terdoslavich, 1B/3B
  9. Zeke Spruill, RHP
  10. J.R. Graham, RHP
  11. Edward Salcedo, 3B
  12. Nick Ahmed, SS
  13. J.J. Hoover, RHP
  14. Matt Lipka, CF
  15. Brandon Drury, 3B
  16. Carlos Perez, LHP
  17. Todd Cunningham, OF
  18. Mycal Jones, CF
  19. Navery Moore, RHP
  20. Billy Bullock, RHP

It's a decent list. I like the inclusion of Moore and Bullock at the end, even though relievers usually don't make the cut on top prospect lists. Though I find it strange that neither Kubitza nor LaStella make the list while Ahmed is listed pretty high. Ahmed at 12 is the biggest over-rank on this list, in my opinion.

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