Baseball America released their top-10 prospects for the Atlanta Braves. They are the third major prospect outlet to do so, preceeded by John Sickels and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. The Talking Chop readers also put out a top-25 list which can be viewed here. The Baseball America top-10 list:

Tommy Hanson, rhp

Jason Heyward, of

Jordan Schafer, of

Gorkys Hernandez, of

Freddie Freeman, 1b

Cole Rohrbough, lhp

Jeff Locke, lhp

Julio Teheran, rhp

Kris Medlen, rhp

Craig Kimbrel, rhp

It's no surprise to see Hanson above Heyward after the AFL he had. It's also interesting to see that they think very highly of Craig Kimbrel. Jordan Schafer, last year's top prospect is now number three on the list.

This post focuses on one of the newer SBN blogs, and the first SBN-Baseball blog to be added in quite a while; Driveline Mechanics examines the mechanics of various pitchers throughout the majors and minors. A couple of days ago they took a look at the pitching mechanics of our top pitching prospect Tommy Hanson (hat tip: VictorW). Here is a sample of the video used to analyze Hanson as well as some of the site's analysis:

In general, I prefer a pitcher who has an easy leg lift, a smooth equal and opposite glove arm, and a pendulum swing to the target. Also, I really like pitchers who finish aggressively. Tommy Hanson does all of the above with the exception of a slow tempo from maximal leg lift to footplant.

Good analysis, and I especially love the accompanying video snippets. There's a great side-by-side video of Hanson's fastball and curveball, one of many reasons Atlanta fans should be pretty excited about this young prospect.

I know we're trying to get that other ace pitcher this off-season, but if John Smoltz can come back and join the starting rotation, would a rotation of Smoltz, Vazquez, Jurrjens, Hanson, and Campillo really be that bad?

This may not be the happiest post, but it may interest some folks nonetheless. Baseball America recently updated their White Sox top-10 prospects and two of the four guys we traded to them for Javier Vazquez wound up on the list. Tyler Flowers came in at number-4, and Brent Lillibridge came in at number-8. Flowers at four is probably a testament to the good talent at the top of the list, but with Lillibridge ranking that high, it's also an indication that the system is not very deep.

Baseball America also released their list of the Rangers' top-10 prospects, and to no surprise there are some Teixeira-trade gems that have found their way to the top. The hard-throwing Neftali Feliz is number-1 on the Rangers' list and rates as having the best fastball in their system. Shortstop Elvis Andrus ranks fourth. This is a significant drop for Elvis, who was their top prospect on last year's list. Catcher Max Ramirez, also a former Braves farmhand who was traded to Cleveland for Bob Wickman, but was then traded to the Rangers, ranks tenth.

BA releases their list of the top-10 Braves prospects a week from today.

In Baseball America's top-20 prospects from the Arizona Fall League, the Braves had two representatives one representative:  Tommy Hanson and Tyler Flowers. Hanson is ranked second behind scout drool machine Matt Wieters. Here is part of what they had to say about our top-ranked pitching prospect:

Hanson tore through 2008, first ransacking the high Class A Carolina League and dominating at Double-A Mississippi. "He's on a mission," Mesa manager Rocket Wheeler said, and that was an understatement. Hanson showed nasty stuff, especially with his breaking pitches (both a curveball and slider). There's effort in the delivery, but there is no questioning the life of his fastball, still clocked up to 94 mph despite reaching 166 innings this year.

Solid praise. Every Braves fan is waiting anxiously for spring training when we will get to see if he can crack the major league starting rotation.

The other ranked Braves prospect, now former-Braves prospect, is of course catcher Tyler Flowers. But they were cautious with him, listing him 15th even though he put on such a big power display during the fall. The scouts have gotten burned in the past by over-hyping kids that come out of nowhere to turn Arizona into a boom-box, so Flowers may be a victim of some of that backlash.

Consider this post the blog equivalent of a sitcom clip show. Since we've had so many new readers lately, I thought it would be a good (and easy) idea to rehash all of the Braves prospect reviewin' I did just after the end of the regular season. If you're looking for some holiday reading material, here you go:

First Base:  Freddie Freeman, Kala Ka'aihue, Ernesto Mejia, Barbaro Canizares, Alberto Odreman, Daniel Falcon, Gerardo Rodriguez, Ryohei Shimabukuro

Second Base:  Travis Jones, Robert Brooks, Diory Hernandez, J.C. Holt, Cole Miles, Elys Blanco

Third Base:  Jon Gilmore, Eric Campbell, Van Pope, Adam Coe, Jake Hanson

Shortstop:  Brandon Hicks, Brent Lillibridge, Michael Fisher, Shayne Moody, Travis Adair

Catcher:  Tyler Flowers, Daniel Elorriaga-Matra, Matt Kennelly, Braeden Schlehuber, Clint Sammons, Christian Betancourt, Phillip Britton

Left Field:  Cody Johnson, Luis Sumoza, Willie Cabrera, Matt Young, Layton Hiller

Right Field:  Jason Heyward, Jon Owings, Chris Shehan, Concepcion Rodriguez

Center Field:  Jordan Schafer, Gorkys Hernandez, Calvin Culver, L.V. Ware, C.J. Lee

RH Starting Pitcher:  Tommy Hanson, Julio Teheran, James Parr, Eric Cordier, Jacob Thompson, Randall Delgado, Zeke Spruill, Todd Redmond, Deunte Heath, David Francis, Casey Hodges, Cory Rasmus, Ryne Reynoso, Kyle Cofield, Michael Broadway, Paul Clemens, Kyle Farrell

LH Starting Pitcher:  Cole Rohrbough, Jeff Locke, Brett DeVall, Scott Diamond, Richard Sullivan, Edgar Osuna, Jose Ortegano, Johnny Venters, Steve Kent, Steve Evarts, Chad Rodgers, Brett Oberholtzer, Luis Avilan, Dimaster Delgado

Closer:  Kris Medlen, Craig Kimbrel, Stephen Marek, Kevin Gunderson, Cory Gearrin, Benino Pruneda, Nick Fellman, Lee Hyde, Rico Reid, Brett Butts, Michael Nix, Tyler Wilson, Luis Valdez, Sung Ki Jung

From the esteemed Kevin Goldstein over at Baseball Prospectus:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Jason Heyward, OF
2. Tommy Hanson, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Jordan Schafer, CF
4. Gorkys Hernandez, CF
5. Freddie Freeman, 1B
Three-Star Prospects
6. Julio Teheran, RHP
7. Cole Rohrbough, LHP
8. Tyler Flowers, C
9. Randall Delgado, RHP
10. Brandon Hicks, SS
Two-Star Prospects
11. Kris Medlen, RHP

Just Missed: John Gilmore, 3B; Craig Kimbrell, RHP; Jeff Locke, LHP

A lot of great prospects up there. It's nice to see we have two five-star guys, and there's Randall Delgado again.

The real kicker is what Goldstein says in his summary:

The Braves have a solid core of young talent, but for the most part it's not going to help this team get any better in 2009. The Braves are a solid long-term play, but a trade of top prospects for Jake Peavy would be a mistake, simply guaranteeing a solid run at mediocrity, as opposed to having the patience to wait out a possible return to National League East glory at the beginning of the next decade.

It's no wonder Mr. Goldstein is a friend of the blog.

As we do every year here at Talking Chop, I've taken all of the top-25 prospect list submissions and averaged them into one combined list that will server as the official Talking Chop top-25 Braves prospects for 2009. Here is the list:

1      Jason Heyward, OF
2      Tommy Hanson, RHP
3      Jordan Schafer, OF
4      Freddie Freeman, 1B
5      Tyler Flowers, C
6      Cole Rohrbough, LHP
7      Gorkys Hernandez, OF
8      Jeff Locke, LHP
9      Kris Medlen, RHP
10    Julio Teheran, LHP
11    Jon Gilmore, 3B
12    Brandon Hicks, SS
13    Cody Johnson, OF
14    Craig Kimbrel, RHP
15    Eric Campbell, 3B
16    Brett DeVall, LHP
17    Edgar Osuna, LHP
18    Todd Redmond, RHP
19    Brent Lillibridge, SS
19    Kala Ka'aihue, 1B
21    Travis Jones, 2B
22    Scott Diamond, LHP
23    Zeke Spruill, RHP
24    Eric Cordier, RHP
25    James Parr, RHP
25    Steve Evarts, LHP

Good work by everyone who participated by submitting their top-25. I like this approach as it usually gets rid of the outliers in individual's lists and gives a better overall picture of what people think of the prospects in our system.

The complete breakdown is after the jump...

Continue reading this post »

We get our first top prospect list of the year from one of the major prospect outlets. John Sickels has been putting out prospect books for over six years now, where he reviews prospect from every organization, over 1000 prospects all together. His 2009 prospect book is available for pre-order here, and is well worth buying.

The following are his "extrememly preliminary" prospect rankings for the 2009 Braves prospects:

Jason Heyward, OF, Grade A-: A personal favorite, though he actually hit fewer homers than expected. Broad base of skills.

Frederick Freeman, 1B, Grade B+: Debating whether or not to move him up to A-. Not as broad a skill base as Heyward, but power and youth stand out.

Thomas Hanson, RHP, Grade B+: Looks good to me, though will need some Triple-A to put on the finishing touches. Number Two starter ceiling.

Jordan Schafer, OF, Grade B+: I should have put him on the Rotowire Top 100 list. Will be in the 50/50 for the book. Power, speed, defense, OBP, and played well without the juice.

Tyler Flowers, C, Grade B: Love the power and walks, main question is glove.

Cole Rohrbough, LHP, Grade B: Excellent ceiling. I cannot prove why objectively, but I worry a bit about his arm. Needs sharper command too.

Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Grade B: I hesitate to grade relief prospects this highly, but I can’t ignore his early dominance.

Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade B-: Would like to see more power, other skills coming along.

Kris Medlen, RHP, Grade B-: Am I overrating him? Looks like he could be a really good swingman.

Jeff Locke, LHP, Grade B-: I’ve liked him since he was in high school. Like Rohrbough, worry some about injuries.

Randall Delgado, RHP, Grade B-: Needs better command, but a high ceiling guy.

Brett DeVall, LHP, Grade B-: A long way away, but a high ceiling.

Zeke Spruill, RHP, Grade B-: Like DeVall, a long way off, but fits into organization philosophy perfectly.

Brandon Hicks, SS, Grade C+: Love the power, walks, speed, defense. Hate the strikeouts.

Eric Campbell, 3B, Grade C+: If his head is on straight, could surprise people in ’09.

James Parr, RHP, Grade C+: Fourth/fifth starter type.

J.J. Hoover, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper call on a junior college guy that I love. Hard-thrower with improving command.

Kala Ka’aihue, 1B, Grade C+: Similar to his brother Kila though I don’t think he will perform quite as well in ’09 as his brother did in ’08.

David Francis, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper pick.

Edgar Osuna, LHP, Grade C+: Sleeper pick, great K/BB ratio.

The biggest surprise here is listing Randall Delgado over Julio Teheran. He does mention JT as a C+ prospect, and I suppose there are more games played to evaluate Delgado than there are for Teheran.

He lists five guys from this year's draft, with Craig Kimbrel getting a very high grade. It's great to see 12 prospects getting a B-something grade -- Sickels doesn't give those out lightly; and of course I expect to see the A- Jason Heyward grabbing the top spot in all of these lists.

Here are my picks for the top-25 Braves prospects for 2009. In the comments section feel free to critique, but as we do every year feel free to list your own top-25 Braves prospects. Next week I'll tally everyone's prospect rankings and we'll have our official combined Talking Chop top-25 Braves prospects for 2009 (be sure to list 25 or I won't count it).

My first thought on the list below is that the top five, possibly six of the top seven guys on this list, could be among the top-100 prospects in baseball. Each of these guys seems like a definite future impact player at the major league level -- that's more top players than we've had in a very long time.

I've already reviewed these guys in the positional rankings, so my writeups below will be more about why that prospect is ranked where I ranked him, or a quick comment about their future.

1. Jason Heyward, OF - A rare, once in a decade kind of prospect.
   
2. Tommy Hanson, RHP - Straight up filthy, the best pitcher in our system and one that true Braves fans can't wait to see get a chance in the majors.
   
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B - Perhaps the biggest surprise in the system, though I'm guessing the Braves brass wasn't surprised at all.
   
4. Jordan Schafer, OF - He's got the goods and I want to see them on the major league field next year.
   
5. Cole Rohrbough, LHP - A strikeout lefty... in the Braves organization... and here I thought all of our lefties were finesse guys.
   
6. Tyler Flowers, C - Power and patience in a catcher. Alas, I think he's primo trade bait.
   
7. Gorkys Hernandez, OF - Still young and skillsey, but I want to see a monster 2009.
   
8. Kris Medlen, RHP - Starting or relieving I think he's got plus major league potential.
   
9. Jeff Locke, LHP - Slow and steady he will climb the organizational ladder.
   
10. Julio Teheran, RHP - A lot of people that follow the Braves prospects were disappointed with Teheran's poor performance.
    
11. Brandon Hicks, SS - I love the power and the big frame, but I'd like to see fewer strikeouts.
    
12. Travis Jones, 2B - More than just a scrappy second baseman... in the Braves system no doubt.
    
13. Jon Gilmore, 3B- Johnny-G will have all eyes on him next season to see if he can successfully navigate Rome.
    
14. Cody Johnson, OF - He's got power, but it seems to come with a price... strikeouts.
    
15. Brett DeVall, LHP - I can't wait to see him pitch in a full season league, let's hope they put him at Rome next year.
    
16. Craig Kimbrel, RHP - Could we see him in Atlanta next year?
    
17. Scott Diamond, LHP - He'll be out to prove that 2008 wasn't a fluke.
    
18. Brent Lillibridge, SS - I'm just not excited about him anymore.
    
19. Eric Campbell, 3B - May maturity make him a top-10 prospect again.
    
20. Luis Sumoza, OF - I bet a lot of other people rate him higher, but I want to see what he does in our system next year.
    
21. James Parr, RHP - A solid back end of the rotation guy.
    
22. Stephen Marek, RHP - Could be a fixture in our bullpen for years.
    
23. Eric Cordier, RHP - Next year we'll see if health equals success.
    
24. Richard Sullivan, LHP - I really like this kid as a prospect, even though I may be alone in that department.
    
25. Edgar Osuna, LHP - He doesn't get the hype that a lot of other guys get, but he might be just as good as some of them.
    

Remember to post your top-25 in the comments section by early next week (probably Monday or Tuesday).

At the major league level…
… After a big contract extension and bigger expectations, our hopes that we found a dominant closer in Rafael Soriano are still up in the air. It’s not because of ineffectiveness; it’s because of some "mysterious" injury – the attached version of phantom limb pain. Soriano complained and complained about pain in his pitching elbow, but no MRI and none of the Dr. James Andrews of the world found anything wrong with the relievers elbow. Perhaps rest and time will fix the "damage."

As one closer feigned an arm injury, another closer came back from one better than most everyone thought he would. Mike Gonzalez rocked himself back into the closer’s role a mere week after returning from the disabled list and Tommy John surgery. He should most likely be considered the closer of choice going into spring training next season.

Manny Acosta is considered by some to have some future closer ability, but with Acosta it’s always been the amount of walks he issues which seemed to have doomed him. Blaine Boyer is another guy who some considered to one day be closer material, but Boyer gave up too many hits, including the gopher ball, and that combined with flagrant overuse may have set Boyer back. But relievers are fickle creatures and just as bad as some of these guys were this year they could come back next year and dominate.

The future Braves closer…
… Though he has found his best success this year as a starter, right-hander Kris Medlen profiles to make the majors as a reliever. Moving him to the rotation was supposed to help Medlen work on his changeup, and while that has improved, and while he has become an accomplished starter, the end result is that when Medlen moves back into the bullpen he goes from being projected as a setup reliever to being considered a future closer.

As much as we need starters in the majors, Medlen is behind several guys on the starting depth chart, and the odds are that his ability will mature to major league ready before the Braves have a major league starting job ready for him. I’m sure that many people will disagree with me about moving Medlen back to the bullpen, but as much as we need starters we also need talented relievers, and with all the injuries that have plagued our staff the last few years, we may need a closer in waiting who is ready to step in.

More for future consideration…
2. Craig Kimbrel – If anyone was upset about the Braves trading Joey Devine, then they needn’t get down on that trade for too long. We went out and drafted Kimbrel this year and all the young fireball reliever did was strikeout 56 batters in 35.1 innings pitched while only giving up 16 hits and two earned runs. He had success at every level, beginning at Danville, then Rome, and the Beach. Batters managed to hit just .131 off of Kimbrel. In a small sample size in Myrtle Beach he showed a few signs of vulnerability, so he will likely begin next season there, but he should move up to Mississippi mid-year.

3. Stephen Marek – The "other" part of the Kotchman trade might begin to pay dividends as early as next year as he competes for a spot in the bullpen during spring training. The jury is out on whether or not he has closer stuff, but another couple of years of development could change some minds.

3. Kevin Gunderson – He shined as a closer at Oregon State when they won the College World Series, so we know he can close and close effectively. He’s been given that opportunity several times in the minors and will likely continue to be given that opportunity. His future in the majors is probably that of a LOOGY, but there’s a chance he could sneak into a closer’s role at some point.

4. Cory Gearrin – Another college closer who has had mixed results in pro ball. The Braves have moved him quickly and for the most part he’s responded well. His ERA’s have not always been pretty, but his average against shows that he’s still able to get batters out when he challenges them.

5. Benino Pruneda – Reportedly a guy who can throw up to 100mph, Pruneda had a sensational year at Rome in his first full pro season. He struck out 73 in 57.1 innings and had an almost 2-to-1 ground outs to fly outs ratio – spectacular for a power pitcher. Pruneda is a JuCo guy and should see Myrtle Beach next year and possibly some time at Mississippi late in the season. While he didn’t do much closing at Rome, 100mph is certainly capable of closing one day.

6. Nick Fellman – The Braves chose to have Fellman skip Rome and go from Danville last year right to Myrtle Beach this year. He responded admirably, though he predictably struggled in the first half of the year with an ERA over 5.00 and eight homeruns allowed, but he adjusted to the league and found his form in the second half to put up a 1.59 ERA with no homeruns allowed.

Others Relievers (not necessarily closer-types):  Lee Hyde (college reliver is rebounding from injury earlier this year, the Braves showed in 2007 that they think he can move fast through the system); Rico Reid (a real competative reliver with a good fastball/curveball mix, but needs time to refine his game); Brett Butts (big reliver from Auburn didn't have a good year ERA-wise, but he threw a lot of innings, kept his walks down, and held opposing batters to a low .220 average); Michael Nix (bigger Aubern reliever who has shown some good improvement each of the last two years; he should be in the spring training bullpen mix); Tyler Wilson (big reliever had a better season than it looks like he had after several tough early outings; he still needs to control the walks); Luis Valdez (older reliever may have turned a corner this year; it's hard to argue with 28 saves and a 2.76 ERA; if he's still around next year he might get a shot in spring training); Sung Ki Jung (after a great year in 2007 he was far too hittable this year as batters hit almost 100 points higher off of him in 2008)