Prospect Reviews
Baseball America releases their top-10 Braves prospects
We get the second list this off-season of Atlanta Braves prospects, this one from Baseball America:
- Jason Heyward, of
- Freddie Freeman, 1b
- Julio Teheran, rhp
- Mike Minor, lhp
- Craig Kimbrel, rhp
- Christian Bethancourt, c
- Randall Delgado, rhp
- Zeke Spruill, rhp
- Cody Johnson, of
- Adam Milligan, of
Nice list. Unlike John Sickels, who gave us our first list this off-season, Baseball America ranks Cody Johnson appropriately, and not completely off the board. I also like the top-10 love their giving Adam Milligan -- I really like him and I think he has a good chance to be an impact prospect. Overall, this was a solid list.
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Braves Top-5 Minor League Center Fielders
While the Braves top Minor League center fielders don't have the star power present in right field, or the pure power present in left field, they are still an interesting collection of speedsters and defensive stalwarts. While none currently seem like locks to become future stars, and maybe not even future starters, fortunately, the Braves are well set at the Major League level with Nate McLouth and the center fielder of the future, Jordan Schafer.
1. Matt Young B/T: L/R Born: 10/3/1982 Ht: 5'8" Wt: 175
Young takes the top spot after a second excellent season at Mississippi that saw him take home the award as the Southern League's Top Huslter. After hitting .289 with a .769 OPS along with 30 stolen bases for Mississippi in 2008, Young improved to a .289 average, .827 OPS and a team record 43 stolen bases. After playing most of his games in left field in 08, he shifted and played mostly in center this season. The same speed he utilizes on the basepaths enables him to cover an excellent amount of space in the outfield, and he takes good routes while making intelligent decisions. But, his arm is well below average, so that negates some of his defensive value.
A line drive hitter, Young doesn't make the mistake of trying to hit for power, and instead contents himself with spraying the ball to the gaps, collecting 23 doubles and 10 triples this season. He also makes use of his tiny frame (his listed height of 5'8" is a good bit of an exaggeration) to work a ton of walks, racking up 97 this season on the way to a .414 on base percentage.
Young was originally signed as a second baseman, so he has a bit of versatility, but he's only played 59 games there as a professional, and half of those came in 2006. He'll enter next season as a 27 year old, so he's not a typical prospect, but there's plenty of reason to think that his speed and defense, combined with his on base skills, could make him a valuable part of a Major League bench. If he's left off the Braves' 40 man roster this offseason, there's a possibility that a team looking to keep him as the 25th man on their roster and utilize him as a late inning pinch runner and defensive replacement might take a chance on him in the Rule V draft.
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John Sickels' top-20 Braves prospects
Our first Atlanta Braves top prospect list is out from a major prospect guru. This first one from John Sickels, here are his top-20 Braves prospects:
- Jason Heyward
- Freddie Freeman
- Julio Teheran
- Randall Delgado
- Craig Kimbrel
- Mike Minor
- Christian Bethancourt
- J.J. Hoover
- Zeke Spruill
- David Hale
- Mycal Jones
- Brett DeVall
- Cory Gearrin
- Adam Milligan
- Jose Ortegano
- Robinson Lopez
- Luis Valdez
- Edgar Osuna
- Scott Diamond
- Dimaster Delgado
Visit his site for his commentary on each of these guys. It's a good list. A little high for Hale and Jones, I think. Good inclusion of Robinson Lopez, I think we'll be seeing a lot of him on lists this year. Notice the absence of Cody Johnson, who Sickels says he "doesn't believe in" because of the strikeouts -- a very valid fear.
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Braves Top-5 Minor League Left Fielders
As we have already seen, the depth at most of the infield positions is pretty weak right now (except for maybe 1B) and nearly devoid of potential impact players. The OF is a bit different with 3-4 potential impact players in LF alone and several more between the other OF positions. The LF list is comprised almost exclusively of high risk/high reward tools players and demonstrates the Braves draft philosophy pretty well over the past 2 decades. If just one of these guys hit their ceiling we could have a very good power bat for the future. The problem is, that is a big if in almost all of these cases.
1. Cody Johnson B/T: L/R Born: 8/28/1988 HT: 6'4" WT: 195
Cody Johnson is probably the most.....controversial? interesting? prospect that will be discussed on any of these lists. And for good reason too. He was a controversial pick for the Braves when they spent their 1st round choice on him in the 2006 Draft , but they knew then that he was going to take a while to develop and they were willing to give him time. Cody lives for the home run and may have more raw power than any player in the minors right now. The big issue is that is his only real skill at the moment. He is the consummate boom or bust player.
The player that Cody Johnson is compared to most often is Adam Dunn, but there are some flaws with this comparison. Both guys have extreme power, but Dunn has always had very good patience at the plate with a solid idea of what he is doing. He is the perfect example of a 3-True Outcome player (guys who can be expected to either homer, strike out or walk in any plate appearance) and is a good example of Cody's best case scenario. Cody, while still having that power, has yet to show the same level of polish as Dunn, though there are some good signs. This year at Myrtle Beach Cody posted the highest walk totals of his career thanks to a 13% walk rate for the season, and he actually saw it increase after Freeman and Heyward were promoted and 5% better than he was with Rome. His ISOP was a very good .275 in Myrtle Beach which came from 51 of his 102 hits going for extra bases (32 homers, 18 doubles and 1 triple). He ended the year with an .861 OPS though he slumped quite hard in the final month of the season with a .741 OPS (still not horrible because of his good walks totals).
With Cody Johnson's good points comes some pretty glaring bad points. The K-rate is the first stat that anyone points to, and it really can't be ignored. Cody struck out in roughly 35% of his ABs this season. To put that in perspective Mark Reynolds struck out in about 33% of his ABs in the majors this season but he never posted higher than 28% in a full season in the minors and Adam Dunn never posted higher than 24% in the minors and Ryan Howard did put up 34%, but that was at AA and he was 24 years old. Johnson's strikeouts are a problem and won't ever go away and I think they do point to a root problem which is: 70% of his hits go to RF. He is a dead pull hitter which probably creates some exploitable holes in his swing. Cody also is known to be a pretty bad fielder in LF and the stats back this up as he has a career .940 fielding %. Yes he makes an error on SIX PERCENT of the balls he makes plays on. In the OF. Horrible.
Long story short, Cody has one outstanding skill (power) that has improved as he has moved up the ladder and one solid skill (taking walks) that is certainly a work in progress but still an asset to his offensive game. Outside of those two you would be hard pressed to find . But in the end, with just those two skills he posted an excellent OPS while playing half his games in a pitchers park (.790 OPS at home vs 929 on the road) and had what I would consider a very productive season. Cody does have one other thing going for him: he is only going to be 21 next season and he will probably be in AA. I don't think he is going to set the world on fire in first taste of AA, but he could spend three years there and only be 24. Cody has already drawn praise from scouts for making more adjustments than most thought he was capable of. He has come a long way from the kid who posted a .541 OPS in the GCL. If he can continue to make progress being a more selective hitter, even if the strike outs stay exceptionally high, he will be a useful bat in some capacity. Expect to see him in Mississippi next season after finishing 2009 there.
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Braves Top-5 Minor League Third Basemen
While the middle INF depth chart for the Braves is filled with mostly non prospects, the corner spots are slightly better stocked. First Base of course has Frederick Freeman and a couple of big power guys behind him. Third Base falls somewhere between the talent of First Base and the middle INF positions. Even if they aren't all 'prospects' in the traditional sense, most of the guys here are interesting players with some value going forward. Two guys tied for the top spot in the combined TC rankings: Donell Linares and Jake Hanson.
1A. Donell Linares B/T: R/R Born: 10/28/1983 HT: 6'0" WT: 199
Donell Linares is one of those guys that isn't a prospect in the traditional sense of the word. He played this season at age 25 at High A Myrtle Beach which made him a full year older than anyone else on the roster and 2-3 years older than many of his teammates. Linares is a Cuban defector whom the Braves signed on June 20, 2008. 2009 was his US debut in professional ball as he just spent a couple of weeks staying sharp in the DSL last summer. With all that being said he put together a solid campaign for the Pelicans and was probably the best hitter down the stretch.
Linares skill set bears some resemblance to fellow countryman Yunel Escobar, but he sports an even lower K rate (14th most difficult to K in the minors this season) and a little bit more current pop. He posted a .772 OPS for the Pelicans, which isn't wowing, but when considered with the fact that this was his first year in the US it has to be considered a success. Another strong indicator for next season is how he improved late in the season. His OPS was 80 pts higher after the All Star break, which was mostly buoyed by a big August where he hit 6 of his 15 homers. Linares is excellent at getting the bat on the ball, which is great, but it also means that he may never walk a ton. His walk rate did improve significantly the last two months of the season but it still was not spectacular. If he can tap into his power for a full season and take a few more free passes he would actually have a bat that could play every day at the major league level.
Linares has little to no speed, going 5/10 in stolen base attempts this season and wasn't anything special in the field either as he committed 22 errors at 3B. He played a few games at 1B and wasn't bad, but without any eyes on data there is no way to make a real judgment on his defensive prowess other than the numbers. He also has very little room for projection being nearly 26 years old. For him to be valuable to the Braves he will need to be ready in the next season or so, but if he maintains his production as he moves up the ladder he could be a serviceable stopgap if Chipper plans to retire suddenly.
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Braves Top-5 Shortstop Prospects
2009 saw Yunel Escobar continue to assert himself as one of the top shortstops in the National League and with the dearth of shortstop prospects in Atlanta's farm system, that's a huge blessing. The top two players on this list were unanimous selections by the bloggers, though after that the pickings became so slim that it left ties for both third and fourth place, with none of those players looking at particularly bright futures. And, even with the talent at the top, there are questions about whether or not those players will be able to stick at shortstop. Clearly, Atlanta is fortunate to have Escobar.
1. Brandon Hicks B/T: R/R Born: 9/14/1985 Ht:6'2" Wt: 200
After an impressive 2008 playing mostly for Myrtle Beach, where he hit .235 with a .802 OPS to go with 20 home runs and 14 stolen bases, Hicks put up a strikingly similar season in 2009 with Mississippi, with one major exception, his home run power left him. While he hit for a similar average, .237, his OPS dropped .110 points to just .692 as he felt the effects of Mississippi's home park. He hit 10 home runs and while his number of doubles was nearly identical, 25 in 09 compared to 26 in 08, he had 70 more plate appearances this season.
The jump to AA clearly affected Hicks as he hit just .215 with a .651 OPS in April. He was also affected by his home ballpark, as he hit just .214 with a .624 OPS at home for the season, compared to .258 with a .754 OPS on the road. Despite these struggles, he seemed to turn things around toward the end of the season, hitting .248 with a .773 OPS in 123 August plate appearances, followed by a torrid finish where he hit .400 with a 1.300 OPS in 24 September plate appearances. This turnaround, combined with the fact that he actually decreased his strikeout rate from the previous season, hint toward Hicks' ability and speak highly of his future.
Hicks has been routinely praised as a top tier defensive shortstop and while his range is nothing spectacular, he takes good routes on balls, has a strong, accurate arm, and rarely makes mental mistakes. While his error total did increase in 2009, some of that could be attributed to taking his poor hitting out to the field with him. Hicks is extremely competitive and has a tendency to be too intense at times. But, while this can occasionally be adverse to his play, it's mostly a huge positive, and part of what allowed him to succeed toward the end of the season.
Hicks is playing out in the Arizona Fall League and regardless of how well he does out there, he'll likely begin 2010 at Mississippi again. He'll need to refine his swing and create more line drives to allow his power to come naturally. He's a big, strong kid and may grow out of shortstop, necessitating a move to third base. But, while he's a bit older than most top prospects, Hicks' talent is obvious, and it's not out of the question that he could see time in Atlanta by the tail end of 2010, though he's more likely to begin making an impact in late 2011.
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Braves Top-5 Second Base Prospects
The Braves have been fortunate enough to consistently fill their second base position with homegrown talent over the last three decades. Aside from small stretches by Brett Boone and Quilvio Veras, the mantle of starting second baseman has passed from Glen Hubbard to Mark Lemke to Marcus Giles to Kelly Johnson and now to the newest in the string of Atlanta-developed second sackers, Martin Prado. The position has remained solidly, if not spectacularly, filled and the next wave of prospects hints at more of the same. Atlanta's current bevy of second base prospects is fairly lacking in top flight talent with huge celings, but it's a group of solid players who all seem likely to reach their personal potentials.
1. Travis Jones B/T: R/R Born: 11/10/1985 Ht: 5/9" Wt: 190
Jones takes the top spot among Braves' Minor League second basemen despite a bit of a down year for AA Mississippi. As a 22 year old playing for Myrtle Beach in 2008, Jones managed to club out 29 doubles, 16 homers and 78 RBIs along with swiping 17 bases while compling a .248 average and a .789 OPS. This season his OPS dropped to .706 as his home run power seemed to vanish, but his other numbers held firm, as he hit for a .249 average to with 22 doubles and 23 stolen bases.
Mississippi's park has become known as a pitcher's park, as notoriously hard to hit home runs in as Myrtle Beach's park, and that coupled with the natural trials of the adjustment to AA, considered the hardest adjustment in professional baseball, led to Jones' first half struggles. In 228 at bats before the All-Star break he hit just .224 with a punchless .637 OPS, but rebounded amiably after the break hitting .290 with a .819 OPS in 138 at bats.
Jones is a solid, reliable defender who combines good instincts with plus range. He doesn't have the arm to play shortstop, nor the body to play third, and he's played neither position as a professional, so there isn't much of a chance that he'll be able to work his way into the Major Leagues as a utiliy infielder. But, the power/speed combo that he showed in 07, 08, and the second half of 09 suggest that he has the tools to be an everyday starter for a Big League team. He'll begin next season as a 24 year old, so there's not much chance that he'll develop into a high octane, incredibly exciting player, but he's certainly in the Braves mold of a dependable, solid second baseman.
Due to his second half surge, a great Spring Training could propel Jones to AAA Gwinnett, but it's more likely the Braves allow him to repeat his success at AA, at least for the first half of the season. Either way, he'll need to continue to work on keeping his swing correct and aiming for doubles instead of home runs. His history suggests he's never going to hit for a high average, but he still gets on base at a good clip and has shown a knack for situational hitting. Jones doesn't have the highest ceiling in the Braves' farm system, but his combination of slugging and speed make him a valuable component in a lineup and he could help Atlanta as soon as the end of the 2010 season.
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Talking Chop Roundtable: Braves First Basemen
As part of season reviews for major league players and top prospect ranking for minor league players, we here at Talking Chop thought it would be a fun idea to get all of our bloggers together with the help of Google Docs and debate the various aspects of each position in the Braves organization.
The participants are, yours truly (gondeee, indicated by MG), yondaime4 (indicated by MF), royhobbs (indicated by DH), and cbwilk (indicated by CBW).
I thought we'd have a few quick questions with some short responses, but apparently I underestimated the verbosity of my fellow bloggers, and this thing turned into an opus. But while it is quite long, it is an interesting discussion about the Braves catching situation in both the majors and the minors. If you have anything to add please feel free to post a comment... but please, keep it short.
MG: Did anyone miss Casey Kotchman? I'm surprised the Braves stayed with him as long as they did.
CBW: I certainly didn't. I was baffled when so many people were against the straight-up trade for LaRoche. They were arguing that we had Kotchman for three more years like it was a positive. Frankly that's like saying we had a few more years of Francouer. Yes, Kotchman's defense is outstanding, but first base is an offense first position, and the guy just isn't any good. I'm starting to wonder how the Angels win so many games with guy who can't walk and don't hit for power.
DH: Usually, I'm more on the side of preferring to keep controllable talent over rentals, but the way LaRoche came mashing out of the gate, I forgot about Casey Kotchman, real fast like. Kotchman was no doubt a defensive wizard, which is no doubt an important asset, but it's not like Adam LaRoche was a slouch with the glove either. Kotchman had his good streaks of occasional doubles, but LaRoche's ability to hit them into the stands was a refreshing change that made me not care the least bit about how many years Kotchman still had left.
MF: I defended Kotchman at times, solely to feel like we got something from the whole Teixeira thing, but when I heard about us getting Laroche I couldn't have been happier. I always loved Laroche, and I think he is a guy Atlanta fans love in general. Kotchman will save you runs with the glove but no one saves enough runs with their glove to make up for 150 pts difference in OPS.
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