Community Projections
Brian McCann: Atlanta Braves 2009 Player Preview
This player preview was written by Timm Davis, who can be found at Rain Delay, and posts here as... Rain Delay.
Who knew that when Johnny Estrada when down with injury in 2005 that a fresh faced kid from Athens, Georgia, would arrive from double-A Mississippi and wind up as John Smoltz' personal catcher for the remainder of the 2005 season, then go on to play in three all-star games and win two silver slugger awards. In a very short time Brian McCann has become a member of the elite catching corps in the game of baseball..
I bet you wouldn't be surprised to know that in the last 30 years, Brian McCann leads all Braves catchers with a career OPS+ of 123? The closest to him is (of course) Javy Lopez who clocks in with a 113. Other catchers on the list include Ozzie Virgil (99), Greg Olson (80), Eddie Perez (76) and Bruce Benedict (71) (to qualify a catcher had to have at least 1,000 plate appearances).
Fan Graphs says that Heap is second only to Joe Mauer with a Win Value of 5.8, which puts him on the top of the National League . The Braves know what they have with the 24-year old McCann, this is why they locked him up with a long term deal.
Each year he's been in the majors he eclipses the games played mark he set the previous season. Not to mention he had guys like Todd Pratt and Corky Miller backing him up at times. With a more competent backup this year in David Ross, McCann should get a bit more rest than he is used to (and Bobby would be wise to give him that rest).
There was some concern after the 2007 season, as his numbers dropped across the board and he was striking out more and hitting for less power, but keep in mind that he was injured a good portion, if not all of that season. It seems that when he has problems at the plate he turns more often to his Dad instead of Terry Pendleton for hitting advice.
With a healthy 2008 he showed us more accurately what he can do. He's struck out less, hit for more power and spread the ball around better. According to most projections, he should hit on or near .300 with anywhere between 20-25 jacks, which falls in line last with last season in which he had a career high in batting average (.301) and OPS+ (134).
Perhaps the only bum rap on him has been his less than stellar defense. While not atrocious it could be better. Spring reports said, and it certainly looks as though he's lost some weight coming into camp. That should help with his defense and mobility behind the dish. Even with all of his success in the batter's box, McCann has always been a tireless worker at the defensive part of his game, and that should continue from year to year.
In 2009 we should be able to pencil in a healthy McCann for about 20-25 home runs and a .300 batting average. There's no desparity in his splits either. Last year he hit two points lower against lefties (.299) than right handers (.301). It's nearly identical but reversed with OBP, with an OBP vs RH of .373 and an OBP vs LH of .375. Look for more of the same this year from Heap, WBC or not. The kid is good, and he's going to be good for some time to come.
Thanks to Timm for another good preivew.
30 comments | 0 recs |
Diory Hernandez: Atlanta Braves 2009 Player Preview
This player preview was written by CB Wilkins, who can be found at dropout productions, and posts here as cbwilk.
Soon-to-be 25 year old Diory Hernandez looked like he was on a clear path up the Minor League ladder after a successful season for Rome in 2004, but so-so performances, aided by a questionable attitude, bogged down his ascension, and he spent part of three seasons playing for Class A Myrtle Beach. With newfound determination in 2007, Hernandez righted his career, putting up a fine season, mostly with AA Mississippi, where he displayed consistency at the plate and in the field. He continued to progress in 2008, spent mostly with AAA Richmond, where he again was a model of consistency, regressing only in slugging (which is expected when moving to a higher level) and in steals (which he wasn’t very successful at anyway).
Hernandez utilizes a polished approach at the plate, content to hit singles and doubles and never confuse himself as a power hitter. His approach, combined with an adept bunting ability, make him the classic, old-school number 2 hitting middle infielder. In the field, he has soft, sure hands, and a clear sense of the fundamental way to play. The majority of Hernandez’s games have been played at shortstop, and while his fielding is adequate enough for the position, his arm is not. Likewise, while he is capable of defensively playing third base, hit bat doesn’t profile well there. However, at second base, the combination of his well above average defense and no-frills offense make a perfect fit.
If he were to reach his absolute potential, Hernandez could be a starting second baseman on a second or third tier team, but his likely Major League future is as a utility man, and it’s not out of the question that he would be adequate in the outfield if asked to play there. Atlanta’s 2009 bench seems set with Omar Infante and Martin Prado occupying the backup infield positions (with Greg Norton a possibility in emergency situations), but, should an infielder get injured, Hernandez would almost certainly be the first player recalled. For now, he will go to AAA Gwinnett and continue to polish his game and, in the near future, he could become a reliable, if unspectacular, reserve for the Braves.
Thanks to CB for a great preview.
2 comments | 0 recs |
Jo-Jo Reyes: Atlanta Braves 2009 Player Preview
This player preview was written by Josh G., who posts here as jeg.
The 2009 season will likely be a “make or break” season for 24 year old Jo-Jo Reyes. With Charlie Morton being set back by injury this spring and Glavine still recovering from offseason surgery, Jo-Jo will compete with Jorge Campillo and Tommy Hanson for the 5th starter spot and could get yet another crack at the starting rotation to open the season. Reyes, formerly the organization’s top pitching prospect, has struggled with his command and control throughout his major league career.
In 2008, Reyes was a serviceable starter throughout the first half of the season. However, he had an awful second half in which he was homer prone and posted an 8.92 ERA and allowed 53 hits in 35.1 innings. Reyes’ regressed in terms of his command as the season progressed, even after pitching coach Roger McDowell tweaked the alignment of his left foot relative to the rubber in hopes of improving his suspect command.
Reyes has dominated AA and AAA hitters in both the 2007 and 2008 seasons and has little left to prove at the minor league level. Though Reyes was a very successful minor league pitcher, he posted less than ideal walk rates. He has above average stuff for a lefthander but his inability to locate it down in the zone has prevented him from achieving sustained success at the major league level.
Geared toward contact, Reyes fastball sits at 89-91 and tops out at 93. His fastball has some sink to it but its effectiveness is limited when left up in the zone. A slow curve with 11-5 break is likely Reyes’ best pitch but it is often left high in the zone and is subsequently hit 350+ feet. His curve is a big breaker and is on average 19 mph slower than his fastball. Reyes also throws a slider around 80 mph that is nontraditional in the sense that its thrown slower and has more vertical break than the average slider.
Reyes has the talent to be a mid-rotation starter but if he cannot improve his command, he will wind up a reliever. Though still young, Reyes has not made the most of his opportunities at the major league level and with talented prospects like Tommy Hanson coming up quickly behind him plus the additions of Vazquez, Lowe, and Kawamaki to the rotation, he is quickly running out of time to establish himself as a major league starter with this organization. Improved command and control are the keys to a successful 2009 campaign for Jo-Jo Reyes. If he fails to improve, he will likely be moved to the bullpen or traded to another organization.
Thanks to jeg for another great preview.
10 comments | 0 recs |
Todd Redmond: Atlanta Braves 2009 Player Preview
This player preview was written by CB Wilkins, who can be found at dropout productions, and posts here as cbwilk.
When he was first acquired, 23 year old Todd Redmond was a welcome addition, if for no other reason than his arrival coincided with the departure of much maligned reliever Tyler Yates. Redmond was coming off of a disappointing season for Class A Lynchburg in the Pirates chain, where he tied for the league lead in losses and a sharp rise in the number of hits, homeruns, and runs from his previous two seasons led to his ERA ballooning by nearly two runs. It seems the Pirates may have sold low, as that 2007 season looks like an anomaly sandwiched between his highly effective first two seasons with Short Season Williamsport and Class A Hickory and his bounce-back 2008 season with AA Mississippi. While his numbers didn’t return to his Single A levels, they were nonetheless impressive, as Redmond garnered the Southern League Pitcher Of The Year award while helping the team with their league championship.
Redmond is the definition of a pitcher, not a thrower. His fastball barely tops out at 90 MPH, and he relies on accuracy, pounding the strike zone with his fastball, curve, and changeup. His approach leans toward pitching to contact and allowing his defense to make outs. He is a smart pitcher who refuses to hurt himself by walking batters, amassing totals of just 21, 33, 36, and 33 walks over the course of his career.
If he were to reach his absolute potential, Redmond could be a fine, back of the rotation starter, yet his lack of overpowering stuff leads to him profiling best as a middle reliever. Even before all of the free agent signings, he had little chance to make Atlanta’s 2009 roster, so he will go to AAA Gwinnett’s rotation and add more innings and experience. Since he’s on the 40-man roster, he could find himself making a few spot starts for the Braves, but there are enough starters ahead of him on the depth chart that he seems an unlikely candidate for an extended stay in Atlanta’s rotation. Despite this, he should see time with the Major League Braves, and it’s possible that September could be his chance to audition for a 2010 bullpen spot.
A spot-on preview of Redmond, CB's always a good source of info for these minor league guys.
Photo by CB Wilkins.
7 comments | 0 recs |
Blaine Boyer: Atlanta Braves 2009 Player Preview
This player preview was written by Josh G., who posts here as jeg.
Atlanta native, Blaine Boyer is slated to serve as a middle reliever for the Braves in 2009. After a very successful rookie campaign in 2005 as one of the “Baby Braves”, Boyer has struggled to perform at high level of play. Injury derailed his 2006 season and set Blaine back in his development but he was able to regain his plus stuff following rehabilitation.
Lack of stuff has never been a problem for Blaine, as he owns a mid-90’s four-seam fastball and a sharp downer curveball. Blaine also throws a low-90’s two-seam fastball and solid change. Boyer’s stuff has prompted some of his fans around the league, including John Smoltz, to suggest he could be an effective closer in the future.
Boyer’s 2008 season was a tale of two halves. Boyer started strong in 2008, posting 3.93 ERA and striking out 45 batters while allowing only 47 hits in 52 and 2/3 first half innings. In the second half, Boyer was knocked around by opposing batters to the tune of an 11.17 ERA, 26 hits, and 7 homeruns in just 19.1 innings.
Injuries to Peter Moylan and Rafael Soriano forced the Braves to use Boyer more frequently in high leverage situations in 2008 and he wore down in the second half. Blaine’s 76 appearances tied for the 7th highest total in all of MLB. With the goal of improved conditioning, Boyer spent the 2009 offseason working out with John Smoltz and believes the problems he experienced in the second half of 2008 will not occur in 2009.
The organization has long been a fan of Boyer’s, though he was rumored to be part of the package headed to San Diego for Jake Peavy. Boyer seems to have earned Bobby Cox’s trust and with a healthy Moylan, Soriano, and Gonzalez, his work load is set to decrease. The organization is expecting Boyer to pitch well for an entire season and not just the first half of one. The key to Boyer’s success in 2009 is better endurance and with that comes maintaining the lower homeruns allowed totals he posted in the first half of 2008 throughout a full season. With his talent and strong K/BB and H/9 ratios, improved endurance will allow Boyer to post the best season of his young career.
Thanks to jeg for a terrific preview of Boyer.
21 comments | 0 recs |
Matt Diaz: Atlanta Braves 2009 Player Preview
This player preview was co-written by myself and Corey Crocker, who posts here as palioc33.
At the beginning of the offseason Frank Wren said the Braves were looking for two starting pitchers and a left fielder. He more than solved the rotation spots, and took the consolation prize of Garret Anderson to "solve" the left field hole. Many people thought we were going to go with internal options for left field. We do have Matt Diaz already under a nice contract this year ($1.24 million), and many baseball people thought he could hold down the job. After all, he does hit right-handers (.288 career) just about as well as Garret Anderson does (.299), and he kills left-handers (.328) compared to Anderson (.291).
The 2008 campaign became a lost season for Matt when he crashed into the unprotected concrete wall at Miller Park and tore a ligament in his knee - he only had 3 more at bats the rest of the year. If we look at his stats from last year they don't look that good -- .244 AVG, 2 HR, and 14 RBI -- but lets also look at his two previous years with the Braves. In 2006 Diaz hit .327 with 7 HR and 32 RBI in only 297 at-bats, and in 2007 he hit .338 with 12 HR and 45 RBI (in 358 at bats).
If we take his 2007 season and project what he would do given a full season of 600 at-bats that would equate to 20 HR and 75 RBI. Of course, those two seasons were played in platoon roles in LF and some question whether he would put up similar numbers if given a full time job. If we look at the poor numbers last year when he was given a full time spot, we may have reason to say that he is a platoon player. But we shouldn't be too quick to judge little Matty Diaz. A look at his split stats from last year show that he batted .313 in April before he went into a deep slump in May, until finally hurting his knee. One poor month is simply part of the up and down of the major league season that most players go through. The reality is that no matter where Matt Diaz has played over his career he has done nothing but tear the cover off the ball.
As long as his knee is fully recovered, which all indications are that it is, Matt should get the opportunity to show us what he can do. At the very least he should be in the lineup every day there is a left-hander on the mound. With the amount of left-handed hitters in the lineup already, there's no reason to play Garret Anderson when there's a career .328 batter against lefties sitting on the bench. Diaz is the perfect platoon player, and he should be used accordingly. And someday someone might give him a chance to play everyday.
Thanks to Corey for a good start. I had to make some changes to his original writeup after we signed Garret.
21 comments | 0 recs |
Derek Lowe: Atlanta Braves 2009 Player Preview
This player preview was written by Timm Davis, who can be found at his blog, Rain Delay, and also posts here as... wait for it... Rain Delay.
Going into the winter, I was one of the few voices (at the time) that was lobbying for the Braves to sign Derek Lowe over AJ Burnett. Thankfully Burnett chose the bright lights of New York, instead of the muggy summers in the south. I will also state for the record that I have man crushes on guy's that can throw that sinker and get ground ball after ground ball.
Like Crash Davis says: "Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."
After apparently having "no interest" in Lowe at the beginning of the off season, the Braves front office wizened up and went after him (maybe it had something do to with the Padres trying to be greedy, and Burnett going to the big apple). He's come in to a 4 year, $60 million contract and is to be the ace of the staff. There's an argument that he's not what people term as a 'true ace', like say a Jake Peavy, Johan Santana or Carlos Zambrano. What matters is that he's the ace of this staff, a staff that was missing its two aces by the end of last season. So while he's not your prototypical "Ace" as some would lead you to believe, he's still a TOR pitcher and that's what we want.
So now you're thinking, how much of a difference is Lowe and Burnett, in reference to their 2008 performance. Well, lets take a look shall we?
| IP | tRA | ERA+ | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | GB% | FIP | |
| AJ Burnett | 221.2 | 3.62 | 106 | 9.39 | 3.50 | 2.69 | 0.77 | 48.5 | 3.45 |
| Derek Lowe | 211.0 | 3.36 | 137 | 6.27 | 1.92 | 3.27 | 0.60 | 60.3 | 3.26 |
At first blush they look fairly similar, but look again. Check out the disparity in GB%, Lowe has him beat by about 12%. For Lowe he was off his career average, which is a robust 64.4 GB%, he's (by product of the sinker) less homer prone, which seemed to be a problem with the Braves pitching staff last year.
One thing is for sure, he's going to make our infielders work hard. I have all the confidence in the defense behind him. Escobar, the second best defensive shortstop in baseball, Casey Kotchman who's a picking machine, Kelly Johnson who will hopefully improve on the league average defense he provides (though some people will swear on a stack of bibles that he's the second coming of Rafael Ramirez) and Chipper over at third, who for the most part has improved his defense at third after being sent to the outfield and then returned to the hot corner (he was 10th in the Majors in +/- with a +9 according to John Dewans metric).
Now there is a age factor to consider, as by the time his contract ends Lowe will be 40. It's really nothing to worry about though -- maybe if he was a power pitcher -- but he's not and should be able to survive off his sinker for some time. In 2008 he posted the highest ERA+ he's seen in the last 6 years with a 131.
Even though I think ERA is pretty worthless, I might as well point out that he hasn't posted an ERA over 4.00 since 2004, and I see no indication that this trend will change. His career GB/FB sits at 3.32, even though he posted a career low 2.63 last season -- likely just a blip on the radar. We shouldn't worry about any sort of decline, though some of the main stream pundits think that his removal from Dodger stadium might hurt him in the long run.
As the ace of the staff, and part of the Braves new rebuilt pitching philosophy, he's going to be depended on to go out an chew up a ton of innings (something Braves starters didn't do in 2008). Since 2002 when he went from being a closer to a starter, he's dipped under 200 innings pitched only twice. He had 182.3 in 2004, and just missed the 200 mark in 2007 with 199.1.
The 2009 Atlanta Braves are hoping to pencil him in for 200+ innings, an ERA+ in the 130's and a TON of ground balls. He's the anchor of the staff who's going to set the tone, eat a lot of innings (giving an over used bullpen in 2008 some rest) and take some pressure of the young guys like Jair Jurrjens.
Thanks to Timm for a great preview of our pitching ace.
21 comments | 0 recs |
Mike Gonzalez: Atlanta Braves 2009 Player Preview
This player preview was written by Jack Dein, who posts here as jack dein.
Opening the 2009 season as our closer will be Mike Gonzalez. This will be his third season with the Braves after being acquired from the Pirates in January of 2007. After appearing in 54 games for the Pirates in 2006, Gonzalez has appeared in just 54 games in two seasons with the Braves. He will enter this offseason with little competition for the closer job, his only competition being Rafael Soriano who is coming off an injury filled season.
When he was acquired it was thought that Gonzalez could be our closer of the future, but thanks to Tommy John surgery he was limited to just 18 games that year and only 2 saves. He returned on June 18th of last year and pitched in 36 games the rest of the season, totaling 14 saves and a 4.28 ERA while striking out 44 in 33.2 innings.
This is a big season for both Gonzalez and the Braves. The Braves and Gonzalez were able to agree on a contract earlier this off-season that will pay Gonzalez $3.45 million for the 2009 season which is his last before hitting free agency in 2010. It is a big season for the Braves because they need to know which of the two, Gonzalez or Soriano, who is also a free agent after 2009, can be the team's closer in the years to come.
The keys to success for Gonzalez in 2009 are to stay healthy and recapture the form which led him to not blow a single save for three years. Certainly Gonzalez' injury woes seem to be behind him, but he must prove that he can handle the workload of a full major league season. Gonzalez will also be tested by being the man in the ninth inning for a team that is expected to win -- added pressure over being a closer for the Pirates.
If he stays healthy there is no reason why he shouldn’t be considered one of the top closers in the National League. As any Braves fan knows we have lacked a consistent closer since John Smoltz left the bullpen for the rotation after the 2004 season. If Gonzalez proves healthy and as good as we hope then he could be in for a big payday. Hopefully he is able to remain a Brave for many years to come.
Thanks to Jack for a great preview of our closer.
13 comments | 0 recs |

by 









