This player preview was written by Joe Lucia, who posts here as bigjoe.

Jeff Francoeur was really bad in 2008. Recently, I was curious as to how bad he was. So I did a little research (more than 20 seconds worth, actually), and came up with a starting conclusions. Jeff Francoeur's 2008 OPS was lower than any corner outfielder's in the past 10 years. That's...frightening to think about.

Francoeur has always been the golden child in Atlanta, growing up locally, playing nearly all of his minor league ball in the south, and of course, his career with the Braves. One thing about Jeff though, is that he has always seemed to lack the ability to lay off bad pitches. In his 3 and a half year career, he's averaged 128 strikeouts and 34 walks, a stellar BB:K of .266. There was a glimmer of hope last season, as his strikeouts slightly decreased and his walks remained relatively constant. Only thing about that is his is power fell off a cliff and his BABIP got hit by a bus, rendering him nearly useless with a bat in his hands.

But then something happened to Jeff this offseason. He started hanging out with Rudy Jaramillo for a little bit, then listened to Chipper for some hitting tips. And this spring...he's been a much different player. In 62 spring at bats, he's got more walks than strikeouts. Of course, he also has less extra base hits than Brooks Conrad, Greg Norton, Matt Diaz, and Clint Sammons. Jeff's on base problem may be solved, but the lack of improvement in his power is a huge red flag. If his power continues to stay in the dumps while his on base and average return to a respectable level, our superstar corner outfielder will start to resemble Randy Winn...and I don't think we really want that.

Another great preview by bigjoe.

This player preview was written by Aaron Shinsano, who runs a wonderful site called East Windup Chronicle, about baseball in Asia.

I think in some cases it can be difficult to project what a former NPB player might do upon arrival in MLB. Takashi Saito had 21 career saves over 12 years before saving 24 games for the Dodgers in 2006. Daisuke Matsuzaka was just beginning to realize his potential, and had been used both as a starter and a reliever, when he reached the majors at age 26, so guessing what he might do in MLB wasn't straightforward. Likewise, the other big Japanese signing of the 2008 offseason, Baltimore's Koji Uehara, has been flip-flopping between the DL, being a starter, and getting the ball in the 9th inning. It's difficult to project what the Orioles might get.

However, in the case of Kenshin Kawakami, we do have a very recent, similar comparible -- Hiroki Kuroda. That's not to say the pitcher's are similar in terms of pitch mix and stuff, but they are exactly the same in the sense that both are what they are. Both are veteran pitchers with roughly a decade of experience in Japan -- Kawakami has 1641 innings under his belt and Kuroda had 1510. Their career stats matchup fairly well, and if you make park-adjustments they'd be even closer -- Kuroda spent his career in a small park, Kawakami in one of the league's largest.
This might sound a little vague but it isn't. Kuroda didn't make any radical changes, posted a sub 4.00 ERA and kept his hit, walk and K rates virtually the same. He cut his home run rate nearly in half, which one might have expected in moving from Hiroshima Municipal Stadium to Chavez Ravine.

Kuroda's K-rate dropped about .5 in his transition. I think Kawakami's might fall a bit more. There are scouts that say Kawakami is a guy with four below-average pitches and above-average command of all of them. That says back of the rotation success. His arm works well and he's not afraid to challenge hitters. He's got a sinking fastball that ranges from 87-91, a sharp cutter that comes around 84-86, a lazy slider, a splitter and a 12-6 curve with some tilt.

I doubt Kawakami's ERA will be anything close to the 2.30 he maintained during 2008, but looking at his career mark of of 3.22, and bumping that up for both the move into a smaller park and a better league, I think something in the range of a 3.75-4.00 ERA is attainable. How that translates into wins probably depends more on the health of the bullpen, but I think he'll keep the Braves in games with a shot to win 10-12 games on a good team. Is he the #3 starter the Braves might like him to be? I can't say he will be. He looks more like a #4 or #5 to me.

An absolutely fantastic preview from Aaron. I really wanted to get his opinion, since he is more familiar with the players over there, and I think this resulted in a very knowledgable preview with plenty of comps to help us better understand what to expect from Kawakami (who, by the way, had a terrific start last night).

The previews continue, with this one written by Josh G., who posts here as jeg.

Martin Prado enjoyed a career year in 2008, in which he posted an .838 OPS in just over 250 PA’s. Prado proved to be a valuable player off the bench, capably filling in at 3B, 2B, and 1B, even earning a platoon spot at 2B for a period of time.

Prado’s strong play in part time duty in 08’ has led to comparisons to Yunel Escobar’s 2007 season. However, in attempting to set expectations for Prado this season, it is important to compare his 08’ numbers to his minor league track record. For his minor league career, Prado has posted a .745 OPS and while he has been improving over the course of the past two seasons, it may be unreasonable to expect Prado to maintain his 08’ level of production. A further look into Prado’s 08’ season reveals that Martin’s final statistics were largely buoyed by his fantastic August, in which he posted an 1.103 OPS in 77 PA. In August, Prado’s BABIP was an unsustainable .484, especially compared to the league average which is traditionally between .290 and .300.

Following his hot August, Prado saw more playing time in September and regressed back toward the mean. By excluding his red hot August, Prado’s numbers fall to more in line with expectations for a player with his minor league track record and humble skill set. Martin has worked diligently to improve his defense and has seen significant gains in recent years. While not possessing outstanding physical skills, Martin Prado has been a professional success largely due to his versatility and “dirt dawg” mentality.

Ability to make consistent contact and above average bat control are Prado’s greatest tools as a baseball player. He should continue to hit for a high batting average, but his overall production will likely fall below his 08’ level. While many Braves’ fans seemed eager to give Prado a look as an everyday player, his play outside of one month of his career does not seem to warrant increased playing time. Though he perhaps would be overexposed as an everyday player, Prado is a very useful Major League utility man. His versatility defensively and his ability to provide quality at bats should prove to be an asset for the Braves in the 2009 season.

Another fantastic preview from jeg, Prado reminds me a bit of a poor-man's Mark DeRosa, and sometimes I wished we had held on to DeRo.

This player preview was writtin by Victor Wei, who posts here as VictorW.

Manny Acosta spent eight seasons in the minor leagues between the Yankees and Braves before becoming a September call up in 2007. Acosta impressed the Braves by putting up a 2.28 ERA while showing off his 96 MPH fastball, solid slider, and good changeup. This performance was above his head, as his ERA masked an unsustainably low BABIP and alarming walk rate. Acosta's fastball and strikeout rates, however, were very real and it appeared that the Braves had found a solid reliever with plenty of upside.

In 2008, Acosta's walk rate improved, but his strikeout rate plummeted from 8.37 to 5.26 Ks per 9. Fireballers like Jamie Moyer and Jorge Campillo fanned batters at a higher rate than that. Despite these struggles, Acosta still outperform his peripherals and produced a 3.57 ERA in 2008. It was rather surprising that Acosta managed to pull that off because his K/BB ratio was an atrocious 1.19 in 2008. To put this in perspective, that ratio is worse than the career numbers of Mark Redman (1.84), Dan Kolb (1.32), and Danys Baez (1.82) [Editors note:  after hearing those names I vomited a little in my mouth.]

Acosta's sudden decline may be explained by his loss in velocity. Between 2007 and 2008, his fastball dropped to 94.5 MPH while losing some movement. Additionally, his slider lost about a MPH of speed as well. Combine this with Acosta's always-questionable control, and it makes sense that Acosta's production fell.

The Braves' bullpen usage didn't help Acosta either. As injuries decimated the pitching staff, Acosta simultaneously inherited the setup man and closer role. I know I wasn't the only one scratching my head when watching Acosta trot out for multi-inning saves where he needed to go through six batters to get through the first inning. Bullpen misuse and overuse was a common theme among Braves relievers in 2008 and made the unit look much worse than they actually were.

With the bullpen healthy, slotting Acosta down the relief depth chart along with shorter outings should improve his performance in 2009. Acosta, however, may not get a chance to perform in Atlanta. The Braves' bullpen logjam includes Soriano, Gonzalez, Carlyle, Bennett, Campillo, Moylan, Boyer, and a LOOGY or two. Moves will definitely have to be made, and Acosta may find himself in Gwinnett or on another club.

Acosta will probably approach his 2007 performance and give whatever team he's on a cheap, solid low leverage reliever with some upside from his fastball velocity. For Acosta to take the next step, he'll need to improve his command. Walks have always been a problem for him, spanning all the way back to his 18 year old season in Rookie ball. If Acosta can ever figure out how to locate his pitches, then he will become a very good or even dominant reliever because his fastball is as good as anyone's.

Another fantastic preview by Victor!

This player preview was writtin by Victor Wei, who posts here as VictorW.

The Braves traded for Josh Anderson in 2007 to bridge the gap to future center fielder, Jordan Schafer. Two months later, the Braves added veteran Mark Kotsay to the roster, moving Anderson to the bench. By the end of Spring Training, however, the emergence of Blanco pushed Anderson off the bench and into Richmond.

In 2008, Anderson hit a solid .314/.358/.405 for the Braves' Triple A club, while stealing 42 bases in 49 attempts -- an amazing 86% success rate. Later that year, Josh Anderson became a September call up and put up a .294/.338/.426 line while swiping 10 bases on 11 attempts during the last 40 games. Ultimate Zone Rating loved his defense and put him at 13.5 runs above average in CF for every 150 games, a Gold Glove caliber performance.

There is no doubt that Anderson played well in his short 2008 stint, but the question for 2009 is how much of his success is sustainable. Anderson's plate discipline in the majors was absolutely abysmal in 2008. Jeff Francoeur had nothing on Anderson's peripherals. Compared to Francoeur, Anderson swung at a higher percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone, hit a smaller percentage of those pitches, and swung at less pitches in the strike zone. With a plate approach like that, it's no surprise that Anderson's walk and strikeout rates were also terrible.

Anderson finishing the season as a slightly above average hitter with a crazy .370 BABIP -- a minor miracle. His production with those peripherals will not be sustainable. Projection systems such as CHONE, Oliver, and ZiPS predict a line around .280/.325/.365 for Anderson in 2009. Anderson will need to improve his plate discipline before he should be slotted into the leadoff hole for the Braves.

On the plus side, Anderson is an excellent base runner. Does anyone doubt that he could steal 40+ bases in a season with around an 80% success rate? This puts his offensive value close to Gregor Blanco, who will likely slug at a rate below Anderson while producing an OBP about 40 points higher.

How much the Braves believe in Anderson's defense may be the deciding factor. He certainly looks like a natural CF with his speed, but is he really any better than an average CF? Anderson was Adam-Dunn-awful in center field in 15 games for the Astros in 2007, but very good in 40 games for the Braves. In either case, both of these are small sample sizes, and the Braves' scouting department will have to make the call here. If he's a Gold Glove caliber defender like he showed in 2008, then that alone could merit that  Anderson deserves the starting job for 2009.

Even if Anderson doesn't start, he would be a great addition to the bench. At worst he'll make the perfect pinch runner and defensive replacement. At best he'll be a decent hitter with elite base running and good or great defense at a premium defensive position.

Fantastic preview by Victor. He gave me even more to think about with regards to Anderson and whether or not he's an everyday player. This question deserves a poll.

This player preview was written by Stephen Peele, who posts here as sdp.

The ridiculous lopsidedness of the Rafael Soriano trade took a bit of a hit last year as Soriano was down and out with arm problems for essentially the entire season. Soriano, entering the first year of an attractive two-year, $9MM deal, only pitched fourteen innings as he eventually opted for season-ending nerve-transposition elbow surgery. Soriano was just one of a slew of Braves pitchers who needed to go under the knife in 2008.

For a good portion of his first season in Atlanta, Soriano was lights out and flat out filthy. Whether fatigue set in or whether the league started to figure out the former American League reliever, Soriano hit a spell where his fastball appeared flat and it seemed like he was giving up big home runs every time he took the mound.

When disgruntled closer Bob Wickman was designated for assignment on August 24th, 2007, Soriano assumed the role for the remainder of the season and excelled. Soriano closed out the season by picking up a win and four saves over 14.1 innings while only allowing four hits, one earned run, and collecting nineteen strikeouts. All in all, Soriano ended up turning in an excellent initial season with Atlanta, pitching 72.0 innings with a nasty 0.861 WHIP and a ridiculous 4.67 K/BB ratio. The Braves acted quickly to what they saw in Soriano and bought out his first year of free agency, signing him to the aforementioned contract.

Coming into camp in 2009, Soriano has missed a couple of weeks early on due to an "upper respiratory infection" but said that his arm is "[almost] 100 percent." However, he made his first appearance in live baseball last Tuesday against the Astros in which he pitched an inning, giving up a hit and striking out one.

Truthfully, Soriano remains a big question mark because of his health history (he also had Tommy John in 2004). Can he keep his arm healthy? Will he be able to be as productive as he was in 2007? If he can stay healthy, there is no obvious reason why he won't be able to be the excellent reliever he was in 2007. However, it's going to be largely a "wait and see" game with Soriano.

Soriano is due $6.1MM this season and is a pending free agent. With guys like Stephen Marek and others coming through the system, it figures this will be Soriano's final season with Atlanta.

Thanks to Stephen for a great preview of Soriano.

This player preview was written by CB Wilkins, who can be found at dropout productions, and posts here as cbwilk.

Luis Valdez originally signed with the Pirates in 2001, but didn’t make his American debut until 2004, spending his first three seasons with Pittsburgh’s Dominican Summer League team. That slow progress would typify the 24 year old’s career, as he managed to turn in mediocre to poor performances with various Single A teams from 2005 to 2007. After switching to relief in 2007 in his third tour of duty with Single A Lynchburg, Valdez posted better, but still unimpressive results, and was allowed to leave as a Minor League free agent. The Braves snapped him up for 2008 and assigned him to AA Mississippi, where he posted the best season of his career as the championship team’s closer.

Valdez has never possessed an overpowering arsenal, which, combined with a less polished grasp of pitching, led to the lack of success early in his career. As a starter, hitters were given multiple chances against his ordinary stuff, and were often able to get the better of him. Valdez has made leaps and bounds with his knowledge of how to pitch, and moving to the bullpen has limited the number of times hitters are able to see him. This combination has allowed him to be very effective as a reliever, and he’s shown the mental capability for handling the pressure of the closer roll.

He was added to the 40-man roster in October to prevent him from becoming a Minor League free agent again, a clear indication that the Braves feel they have something. While the chances of him making the Major League team out of Spring Training are incredibly slim, it’s very likely that he will get a chance to pitch in Atlanta at some point in the year. Valdez doesn’t profile as a closer in the Majors, but he will likely be given a chance to finish games for AAA Gwinnett and that experience will help him reach his ceiling as a Major League reliever.

Thanks to CB for introducing us to a guy who most Braves fans don't know anything about.

This preview was written by Shawn Coleman, who posts here as Bravesbeast1985.

This off-season has been filled with frustration and disappointment at times. Our dealings with "Furcalgate", and the missed opportunities with Abreu, Dunn, and Griffey, have left a sour taste with many a Braves fan. However, the beauty of missed opportunities in baseball, for me, just adds to the excitement I feel when the Braves actually take action to fill a need. In the case of Garrett Anderson, I feel the excitement is justified.

While speaking with MLB.com in a recent webcast previewing the Braves Season, GM Frank Wren did a great job describing Anderson as a "professional hitter" and "a bat that will extend the lineup." These are two very good descriptions of Anderson's approach at the plate. As the stats below show, while Anderson does like to swing the bat, he is disciplined and consistent in the swings he takes:

  Year        AB        BB/PA       K/AB     BABIP
2006        543      1/15.03     1/5.71   .343
2007        417      1/15.44     1/7.72   .340
2008        557      1/19.02     1/7.23   .339

These numbers show that, while Anderson may not have the power he once did, his ability to make productive contact will mesh very well with the good on-base skills of the hitters at the top of the Braves lineup.

I admit that I was in the crowd that wanted to take care of many needs at once with our LF addition, as I wanted a prototypical right-handed clean-up hitter. Continuing with the message from the numbers above, while Anderson is obviously in the latter stages of his career and bats left-handed, he has shown the ability to offer middle of the order run production. Over the past three years combined, Anderson has posted these lines against the pitching he has faced:

Against LHP:  .275/.309/.414
Against RHP:  .293/.335/.465

These numbers show that Anderson is an asset more than a liability no matter where he bats in the lineup, and that he will produce numbers to justify his place in the middle of the lineup. Furthermore, I would feel safe in saying it is a unanimous opinion that a good middle of the order hitter must be good with runners on-base. These are the figures Anderson has generated from 2006-2008 with runners on, and for added emphasis, compared to the player we lost that made us "settle for" Garret:

                                  Junior                        Anderson
Runners on:     .261/.359/.492             .304/.350/.477
RISP:                 .239/.365/.456             .301/.359/.439
RISP w/2 Out:  .214/.393/.394             .279/.349/.391

As the numbers above show, Anderson has been the better bet with the pressure high over the past three years. As a result, he should continue to be the better option to produce.

With any bat in the lineup, there comes the other side of the spectrum -- their defensive ability. Anderson does not have the range he once did, and his arm has become weaker with age, but he still does possess enough athletic prowess to make the routine and expected plays -- though I would feel safe in assuming that our starting center fielder will be shaded toward left field the majority of the time.

To repeat, General Manager Frank Wren put it best with his description of Anderson as "a bat that extends the line-up." Most of my excitement comes from the anticipation of seeing Anderson's offensive strengths gelling with the skills of our other players. With the evidence above as support, Anderson is still a difficult out to get, and his consistency no matter the situation validates he should be reliable in the middle of our order in 2009. I believe a healthy 70%-30% playing time split between Anderson and Diaz will enhance the quality of our line-up depth and production, and should allow Anderson to be reflected upon as one of the better "bargains" of this off-season in all of baseball.

Excellent preview by Shawn, I thoroughly enjoyed it as I hope you did.