Community Projections
Predicting The 2011 Baseball Season
We're basically 48 hours away from Opening Day, and that means it's time to make some (wrong) predictions. Last year's World Series was foreseen by just about no one, and we should expect nothing different for this upcoming season. Pretty simple concept here; just crank up the old noggin and post your fearless predictions. Division standings, MVPs, Cy Young winners, World Series champion, etc. Winner gets absolutely nothing.
There's a ballot to copy and paste after the jump if you'd like to make it a little easier on yourself. Happy predicting!
Fan Projections For Atlanta Braves Outfielders
Last week we took a look at the somewhat cautious fan projections for the Atlanta Braves infielders, this week we are reviewing the fan projections for the Braves outfielders. While the infield projections where not too terribly biased for the home team, the outfield projections certainly are. Here are the results, as an average of all the submissions:
| Player (Fan Projection) | PA | AVG | OBP | HR |
| Martin Prado | 621 | .308 | .368 | 16 |
| Nate McLouth | 550 | .265 | .346 | 17 |
| Jason Heyward | 597 | .297 | .401 | 27 |
And for comparison, here are the career rate stat averages for these players:
| Player (Career Averages) | AVG | OBP |
| Martin Prado | .307 | .356 |
| Nate McLouth (total) | .252 | .337 |
| Pittsburgh Nate | .261 | .339 |
| Atlanta Nate | .229 | .330 |
| Jason Heyward (majors) | .277 | .393 |
| Jason Heyward (minors) | .318 | .391 |
Prado's projection is not really out of line with his career numbers, though his OBP is likely a little high. The fans are clearly swayed by the good spring that Nate McLouth is having, and they attributed numbers to him that are more in line with the kind of hitter he was in Pittsburgh -- and even then these numbers are very optimistic.
Heyward's numbers are not surprising, as most people would expect a young player like him to improve some in his second year in the league. Still, the on-base number seems a bit high, especially if he's asked to be a more aggressive hitter in the sixth spot of the lineup.
Braves outfielders haven't hit this many home runs (the total of 60 projected above) since the year before Andruw Jones left. While AJ hasn't been the same player in the intervening years, the Braves still sorely missed the power production of a player of his caliber.
Braves Spring Training Games 23 & 24
Let's play two! The Braves take on the Mets at Champion Stadium, with the game airing on CSS in Atlanta. Here's the Braves lineup:
- Martin Prado, LF
- Nate McLouth, CF
- Chipper Jones, 3B
- Jason Heyward, RF
- David Ross, C
- Freddie Freeman, 1B
- Brooks Conrad, 2B
- Brandon Hicks, SS
- Rodrigo Lopez, P
Following Lopez on the mound will be Scott Linebrink, George Sherrill, and Craig Kimbrel (working on back to back days for the first time this spring). Mike Minor will be pitching in a minor league game on the Disney back fields.
The Braves will split their squad and take a second team west to Lakeland to play the Tigers. Here is the Atlanta lineup for that game:
- Jordan Schafer, CF
- Alex Gonzalez, SS
- Brian McCann, C
- Dan Uggla, 2B
- Eric Hinske, 1B
- Wilkin Ramirez, DH
- Joe Mather, RF
- Matt Young, LF
- Ed Lucas, 3B
Brandon Beachy will be starting that game, and he'll be followed by Peter Moylan and Scott Proctor (look out!).
Cautious Fan Projections For Atlanta Braves Infielders
The results of the Atlanta Braves fan projections for the starting infield are in ... and they're quite sensible; cautious even. Over the past two weeks we asked the readers of Talking Chop to predict the numbers for the projected starting infield. Here are the results, as an average of all the submissions:
| Player (Fan Projection) |
PA | AVG | OBP | HR |
| Brian McCann | 541 | .290 | .377 | 25 |
| Freddie Freeman | 530 | .278 | .351 | 17 |
| Dan Uggla | 589 | .276 | .356 | 31 |
| Alex Gonzalez | 548 | .256 | .311 | 15 |
| Chipper Jones | 454 | .287 | .391 | 17 |
Nothing is really too far out of bounds on any of these numbers. For reference, here are the career rate stat averages for these players:
| Player (Career Averages) | AVG | OBP |
| Brian McCann | .289 | .360 |
| Freddie Freeman (minors) | .301 | .363 |
| Dan Uggla | .263 | .349 |
| Alex Gonzalez | .248 | .294 |
| Chipper Jones | .306 | .405 |
None of the projections are more than .017 points higher than their career averages, and several are even below their career averages. Even the plate appearance and home run totals are not out of control. If the Braves manage to put up these numbers, they won't be blowing anyone away, but they'll be a lineup of solid run producers. Of course, someone is bound to have a great year, and another is bound to have a bad year, the hope is that there aren't too many of the latter.
Projections for the outfielders will be up next.
Nate McLouth: Atlanta Braves 2011 Player Preview
We finish up the last of the player projections for the lineup regulars with Atlanta Braves center fielder Nate McLouth. A big year from a rejuvenated "Pittsburgh Nate" would go a long way towards helping the Braves back to another postseason appearance, and could be enough to put the Braves ahead of Philadelphia.
One of the bigger shocks of the Fredi Gonzalez era is his intention to bat McLouth second in the batting order -- he's just dead-set on doing it. That's going to mean that a return to form for McLouth is even more important if the Braves are to have a successful season.
Click here for an introduction to our Fan Projections Player Preview series.
>>> Click here to fill out the Google Form for Nate McLouth's 2011 projections. Your answers can also be posted in the comments section for discussion, but will only be tallied if they are entered in the Google Form.
Nate McLouth's Baseball Reference comparable players by age (1000 equals most comparable). This is an interesting list, I'm really not sure what to make of it.
Mack Jones (971)
Dave Henderson (957)
Eric Hinske (955)
Gary Geiger (954)
Paul O'Neill (951)
Milton Bradley (951)
Michael Cuddyer (950)
Vince DiMaggio (949)
Brad Wilkerson (949)
Larry Hisle (949)
Nate McLouth Trivia Fact: Did you know that 46% of the time McLouth gets on base, he scores? Such a mark is 11th best, All-Time since 1901.
Martin Prado: Atlanta Braves 2011 Player Preview
Today we preview one of the most understated players on the Atlanta Braves, Martin Prado. He was never really a prospect, but he played his way onto the team, earned the respect of his manager and his teammates, and won a starting job, becoming an All-Star in his first full season as a regular player. Now he moves from the infield to the outfield, just another unselfish act for this humble baseball player.
Prado is amazingly consistent. His career average is .307. In 2009 he hit .307. In 2010 he hit .307. Seems pretty cut and dry that he's a .307 hitter.
Will the move to the outfield make him think he needs to be more of a power hitter? He's still hitting leadoff, so perhaps it won't change him in that regard, but it will be something to keep an eye on.
Click here for an introduction to our Fan Projections Player Preview series.
>>> Click here to fill out the Google Form for Martin Prado's 2011 projections. Your answers can also be posted in the comments section for discussion, but will only be tallied if they are entered in the Google Form.
Martin Prado's Baseball Reference comparable players by age (1000 equals most comparable). This list is full of players who had a small range of peak years. It will be interesting to see what kind of comps Prado gets if he continues to put up good numbers. Interesting seeing Kelly on there.
Lew Fonseca (958)
Jeff Cirillo (943)
Kevin Seitzer (938)
Bill Barrett (936)
Cliff Lee (936)
Garrett Atkins (935)
Dave Nilsson (934)
Odell Hale (934)
Kelly Johnson (934)
Todd Walker (932)
Dan Uggla: Atlanta Braves 2011 Player Preview
It's time to project the new guy. The Atlanta Braves made the first big move of the baseball off-season by acquiring Dan Uggla from the Marlins, and then the team signed him to a long-term contract before he had ever played a game in a Braves uniform. Uggla is ours for the next half decade ... that's still sinking in for me. Yes, I need to see a great season out of him before that contract will sit well with me, but I'm warming up to him.
Uglo has hit more home runs in each of the last four seasons than any Atlanta Braves hitter. He brings with him that right-handed power we've so desperately been searching for. Looking at his stats Uggla seems to like hitting at Turner Field. His lifetime slash line at the Ted is .354/.399/.652, which is crazy good, even though it's probably a small sample size at just 199 plate appearances.
But is that a fluke, or does he just hit well wherever he plays against Braves pitching? His slash line against Braves pitching in his former Florida home park is .218/.285/.460 in 191 PA. Even though his ISO is not too far apart, there's enough of a difference to raise more than one eyebrow and send a sliver of excitement throughout the body. What do you all think?
Click here for an introduction to our Fan Projections Player Preview series.
>>> Click here to fill out the Google Form for Dan Uggla's 2011 projections. Your answers can also be posted in the comments section for discussion, but will only be tallied if they are entered in the Google Form.
Dan Uggla's Baseball Reference comparable players by age (1000 equals most comparable). Kent has a good HOF case; lots of other good players in there.
Joe Gordon (921) *
Jeff Kent (917)
Gene Tenace (894)
Damion Easley (891)
Bret Boone (889)
Mike Lowell (886)
Jose Valentin (881)
Hank Thompson (879)
Chase Utley (879)
Rich Aurilia (876)
Dan Uggla Trivia Fact: With one more 25-HR season, he will tie the record for most by a second baseman. Jeff Kent and Ryne Sandberg each have six; Uggla is tied with Hall of Famers Joe Gordon and Ryne Sandberg with five.
If you want some in depth reading on Uggla's defense, see here and here.
Alex Gonzalez: Atlanta Braves 2011 Player Preview
We pick back up with our fan projections for Atlanta Braves players with shortstop Alex Gonzalez. I'm also adding another topic for discussion into this thread, a discussion of whether or not Atlanta should go ahead and re-sign Gonzalez for the 2012 season.
Gonzo will only be in his age 34 season this year, and the prospects the Braves have in the minors are no sure thing to be Major League ready by the beginning of next year. He recently told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (via MLBTR) that he'd like to stay in Atlanta "for a long time." A quick look over the potential free agent shortstops reveals very few options better than Gonzalez at short.
Click here for an introduction to our Fan Projections Player Preview series.
>>> Click here to fill out the Google Form for Alex Gonzalez' 2011 projections. Your answers can also be posted in the comments section for discussion, but will only be tallied if they are entered in the Google Form.
Alex Gonzalez' Baseball Reference comparable players by age (1000 equals most comparable). It's way too awesome that the top comparable for Alex Gonzalez is the other Alex Gonzalez.
Alex Gonzalez (954)
Greg Gagne (917)
Eddie Miller (906)
Rich Aurilia (902)
Jeff Blauser (901)
Johnny Logan (892)
Shawon Dunston (891)
David Bell (888)
Davey Johnson (882)
Damion Easley (881)
Our Alex Gonzalez: .248/.294/.402 with an OPS of .695
Not our Alex Gonzalez: .243/.302/.391 with an OPS of .694
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