I will be in my car today driving down from Atlanta to Florida to spend a week with the Braves. I leave you with this for the day; part of our on-going (and nearly ending) series of community projections. We continue our way through the bullpen with our "side-arm-er from down-und-er." Peter Moylan was a huge part of the Braves resurgent bullpen last year. He not only filled a role as setup man late in the season, but he also filled the role of groundball specialist as well as filling in when needed in long relief - 19 times going longer than one inning. This resulted in a team high in games (80) and a team high in innings pitched for a reliever (90).

As good as Moylan was in a setup role, he was just as effective in long relief; a point I bring up again to underscore his importance to the bullpen - possibly the most important of all our relievers. Anytime I see a reliever toe the rubber 80 times in a year I have to ask if he was overused and if that possible overuse will catch up with him the next year. Let's hope Moylan's side-arm action can withstand the rigors of pitching so many games.

Here is my prediction for Moylan in 2008:

6 saves in 10 chances with a 2.12 ERA and 61 SO in 78 IP, plus throw in 17 holds

I think he'll fill in for Soriano as the closer for a stint or two, and as a setup guy he might pick up a two inning save here and there when the Braves score more runs in the ninth and there's no need for a closer.

Out scary looking closer may bring the scary into the ninth inning this year, or he could be the best thing since number 29 toed the ninth inning rubber. We really don't know which Rafael Soriano will show up for the balance of the year.

There's the Soriano who was rather pedestrian in June and July, giving up homeruns by the handful and posting ERAs over 4.00. Then there's the Soriano who dominated while filling in for Wickman in May, and dominated again when taking over for Wickman in late August and September. He brandished an ERA in May of 0.77, and an even better 0.69 in September.

Could it be that he relishes the pressure of the ninth inning so much that he has to be in that situation to really get motivated to pitch well? Could it just be coincidence that he didn't pitch as good in a setup role as he did as a closer? Again, we really don't know (and the guy's so scary looking that everyone's afraid to ask him).

I'm going to side on the side of Soriano being a guy who lives for the pressure of the ninth inning. Here is my rose-colored projection of his 2008 season:

39 saves in 43 chances with a 2.65 ERA and 71 SO in 64 IP

As "the man" this year, he'll get into a rhythm in the closer's role and at times he will be automatic in the ninth (much like he was the last two months of last season). I think he'll go through a shaky patch or two, but he's more experience now, he's got solid employment and a contract for the next two years, so there's nothing to distract him from being the badass we all know he can be.

The community projections are back (mainly as filler until games start, but we do need to round out the rest of the players expected to make the opening day roster). First up is Matt Diaz, a Magellan in the outfield. Bobby Cox recently alluded to the fact that Diaz could certainly be an everyday player on Bobby's team. Well, I'll see it when I believe it. Until then he's likely relegated to a platoon roll with young up-and-comer Brandon Jones (though, spring is a tough beast to tame, and Jones could stumble, leaving Diaz alone in left).

The real question we should be asking ourselves is "why shouldn't Matt Diaz be an everyday player?" The guy has only gotten better each of the last two years as he's received more playing time. A .338 average in 135 games is a pretty rare thing. Add to that the fact that he hits right-handers almost as good as he hits left-handers, and he's more than just a platoon player. His .318 batting average last year against right-handers is certainly more than any of other candidates we have are expected to put up. The only knock on him when facing right-handers is that his patience and power decrease dramatically, but that could be remedied by more frequent reps against them which comes with increased playing time.

We will have to wait and see what Brandon Jones does this spring to know if he will make the team in a platoon role with Diaz. While some people are saying Jones will make the team, I'm with those that think he will be sent to triple-A for more seasoning. He only got half a season of triple-A last year, and he looked rather lost in his few big league at-bats. Therefore, in my book Diaz gets the starting left-field job full time (but again, spring could tell a different story).

Here is my projection for Matt Diaz based on a full-time role this year:

.332/.370/.507 with 19 HR, 67 RBI, 29 BB, and 78 SO

I think he's primed to add more power this year (with regular playing time usually comes more power). The daily grind will cause him to regress a bit in his average, though it will still be among the tops in the league. The only damaging thing about Diaz in the lineup everyday is that it takes away possibly our best pinch hitter off the bench. It's still worth having Diaz in the lineup everyday. You can't ask for a better hitter to round out the 7th or 8th spot in your batting order.

Rounding out the known starting lineup (I'm assuming that left field is still up in the air this spring) we turn our attention to the poster boy of the Atlanta Braves, right-fielder Jeff Francoeur. Frenchy is an interesting guy to project. For some reason he brings out some of the strongest opinions among members of the Braves fan base. It was only a year ago when many were projecting that Francoeur would not improve upon his 2006 season, and that he was for all intents and purposes a fluke.

Frenchy silenced some of the critics last year, but he likely didn't silence all of them. The biggest area of improvement for the still 24-year old outfielder was in the patience department. He's been a hacker since the first day he stepped on a baseball field, but last year he was able to tame the inner hacker and raise his on-base percentage 45 points to a respectable .338. He may have done that at the expense of a bit of his homerun power, as he had a 10 HR drop-off. But he almost doubled the amount of doubles he hit the previous year and kept his slugging percentage at just about the same level it was at in 2006. The homerun drop-off also didn't hurt his ability to drive in runs as he bested his career high by 2 RBI.

The interesting result of his give-and-take between power and patience was that his OPS ended up being the exact same as his career average to date. So what Francoeur did in 2007 was to maintain his average production - which I guess is exactly the median prediction of what his season should have looked like. As special as some may think he is, last year he was really just average... for him.

So what will become of Francoeur in 2008? Will he continue his newfound patient approach or will he try to cut it back in favor of more homerun power? Could he be more at ease in a Braves lineup that now features Big Tex as an anchor in the middle of the order? Here is my average but slightly improving prediction of his 2008 season:

.301/.339/.462 with 24 HR, 112 RBI, 41 BB, and 125 SO in yet again a full 162-game season

I just keep remembering that he was 21 when he made his major league debut. He was 22 during his first full season in the big leagues, and through all that he kept his production up at respectable levels. Say what you will about "value over replacement player" numbers, I don't put much stock in such things - the guy still drives in 100 runs a year and scores 80 and hits for decent power, and he's still a young hitter who is learning on the job.

The question many people keep asking is when will Francoeur take that "next step" and become the 30-plus homerun power hitter and anchor of a lineup that many baseball people think he can be. Could it be this year, or do we have to wait another year or two for that to happen? Regardless, all signs point to Frenchy still being Frenchy in 2008, and hopefully that will be good enough to help us to the playoffs.

(Though, this year he'll be married Frenchy... sorry ladies.)

Here, finally, is a projection that I will likely not be too optimistic about. I'd love to say that Kotsay will come to Atlanta and pull a J.D. Drew for a year - no injuries and above average production across the board - but the trends just aren't there. Kotsay was rolling backwards before he got injured.

There are some who say that he is more of a National League style player and that he will react positively to the move back to the NL. I disagree and think that his best years were in 2004 and 2005 in Oakland. But even then he had started to decline.

I've already detailed what I think is the biggest warning sign about Mark Kotsay in this article, so I won't rehash the unpleasantness here. To the point, this is what I think Kotsay will do in 2008:

.268/.335/.395 with 9 HR, 58 RBI, 48 BB, and 65 SO in 139 games, giving way to some guy named Schafer in mid-August

I think we'll appreciate his hustle in center, but we will still miss the smooth glide to the ball of Andruw Jones. Schafer just needs some time at double-A and he'll be ready if needed.

This will be one of the harder starters to project. Can half a season really tell us what a player will do - especially when that half season is better than most everything that player did in the minor leagues. Yunel Escobar actually played in 94 games last year - I was quite surprised it was that many; I didn't think he was up for that long.

Here's an interesting comparison when thinking about Escobar's 2007 season - was it better than Jeff Francoeur's rookie campaign in 2005? Escobar hit 26 points higher and got on base at an even greater clip. Francoeur had better power numbers than Yuney did, but Escobar still hit 25 doubles and as shortstops go his .451 slugging percentage was only one point shy of Derek Jeter's and better than guys like Miguel Tejada, Jhonny Peralta, and Jose Reyes - it would have been good enough for a top-10 SLG among MLB shortstops had he qualified with enough at-bats.

Francoeur got a lot more press that Escobar did - maybe because homeruns are flashier and more glamorous (as is Francoeur) - but let me just say it right now, Escobar's debut and current job is just as important as Francoeur's; and in some ways it is more important. Here's a kid who is being handing the starting shortstop job on a silver platter while the team trades away an All-Star shortstop to make room for him. Francoeur made a splash, but he was coming in after Raul Mondesi - hardly big shoes to fill.

Escobar is a lot older being a Cuban refugee; he was older at Danville in 2005 than Francoeur was when he made his major league debut in 2005. Still, for a player of any age, making such a smooth transition to the majors and being handed the starting job of perhaps the most important position on the infield for a championship caliber team should be BIG NEWS.

Here is my prediction of what Little Yuney Escobar will do in 2008:

.313/.379/.449 with 9 HR, 53 RBI, 42 BB, 73 SO, and 119 Runs scored.

He's the real deal. In no single month in the majors last year did he hit below .300. He showed great ability to adjust and hit in just about every situation. If they bat him leadoff (and they should) he'll be a nice little spark plug at the top of the order. He won't be as fast as Furcal was, but he'll get on base better and score more runs.

So really, how can we project Mr. Hampton? We haven't seen him pitch in a regular season game since 2005, and we only saw him pitch one inning of winter ball this year. Is it foolish to try and project what his stats will be if some of don't even believe he will step foot on the mound?

There is still a whole bunch of competitiveness left Hampton, and if there is a way to be a fixture in the middle of the diamond once again, then he'll get back on that mound and be as fierce of a competitor as he can be. But even he can't escape the common notion that a pitcher's first year back from TJ surgery is not as good as his second year. Mike tried to come back too quickly from the first surgery and it likely cost him another year, so I guess the real question is, "has he learned from that first attempt to comeback?"

For what it's worth, here is my projection of Hampton's 2008 stats:

9-6 with a 3.98 ERA in 120 IP with several stints on the DL for "elbow soreness"

Maybe it's a bit too optimistic, but my feeling is that he'll have games where he gets completely lit up, and other games where he's pretty dominant - he'll be trying to figure out who Mike Hampton the pitcher is again.

So apparently this Tom Glavine pitcher-guy is back with the Braves. Strange, seems the first I've heard of it. At any rate we'll go ahead and boldly project what his 42 year old body might be able to accomplish this year.

Could a return to Atlanta be like a mental shot of HGH to Glav? Being reunited with old pal John Smoltz and long-time manager Bobby Cox might trigger an extra effort in old Tom. Being closer to home might make him more at ease and better prepared to go deeper into games or be more effective the second time through the order.

I don't know that we can really look at trends or patterns and try to figure out what an aging Glavine will do this year on the mound, that's why I brought up all the "return to the ATL" stuff in the intro. That may very well help him in 2008, but being closer to home could also mean more distractions or a false sense of comfort on the mound or before games.

I've been saying it since we signed Glavine; I think he'll have a really good first 180 innings, but after that it might get ugly. Of course, this could be where Bobby Cox really comes into play. Glavine was for all intents and purposes the Mets' ace last year, but he won't be the Braves ace this year, so he won't be asked to go as deep into games or be the stopper in the rotation as much as he was last year. That leads me to believe that he may not accumulate more than 200 innings, or even more than 180. It behooves Cox and the Braves to help Glavine realize that he's not a 200 inning pitcher anymore (heck, to Clemons credit, he realized this in his early 40's even if he did have "outside" help).

With that in mind, here is my projection for Tom Glavine in 2008:

16-9 with a 3.98 ERA in 182 IP while making all 33 starts

If nothing else, it seems all is once again right with the world knowing that Tommy is back in a Braves uniform. It would have been nice to keep him here all along, but money is money and baseball is sometimes just business.

FYI, on a non-baseball personal note, I've been super-busy at my job situation the last week and will be into next week -- it's been intruding into my personal time. Thanks to everyone for keeping up the comments and the diaries. I guess if I have to be busy this time of year is the best time since there's hardly any news. Things should clear up for me right around pitchers and catchers.

Not too many bad things you can say about this guy - even a Mets fan has to admit to that. We're starting to see what he can do while fully healthy with a decade-plus of professional experience under his belt. The last three years trend very well for Mr. Jones:

2005 - 109 G, .296/.412/.556
2006 - 110 G, .324/.409/.596
2007 - 134 G, .337/.425/.604

His four-year OPS line reads:

2004 - .847
2005 - .968
2006 - 1.005
2007 - 1.029

His performance the last few years has been way above his career average OPS of .949. Is this Chipper playing over his head, or is he establishing a new standard for himself in his mid-30's? He posted arguably the third-best all-around season of his career last year while almost winning a batting title. The scary (or exciting) thing to think about is that with Mark Teixeira hitting behind him for a full season what kind of hitter can Chipper be?

I think Chipper is entering a post-outfield mid-30's renaissance in his career. He tasted what a batting title could be like last year and he'll be out to win it this year. Here is my prediction for Chipper in 2008:

.342/.437/.608 with 34 HR, 118 RBI, 89 BB, 82 SO in 152 games played

He's gotta be healthy this year - he's long overdue. While it's hard to avoid all types of injury -- and we hope Chipper won't find some new way to injure himself -- he's likely figured out by now how to condition himself properly so the "pulls" and "strains" that plagued him the last few years are less frequent. We know that a healthy Chipper is a key ingredient to an appearance for the Braves in the postseason. He knows the lineup and the rotation we're going to have next year are going to be the best the Braves have had in a long time, and he's going to do everything he can to stay in there. Expect big things from Chipper Jones in 2008.

Second base might be one of the biggest make or break positions for the Braves next year. There's a potential for improved performance from last year, but there is also the possibility that it could become an offensive black hole for the team. Can Kelly Johnson repeat his performance of last year? Will his penchant for hot streaks and long slumps be amplified or exploited by NL pitchers? Will his defense be what our ground ball pitching staff needs it to be?

Part of what he will do in 2008 may depend on where in the batting order he's hitting. No matter where he hits he does a great job of getting on base, so if he leads off we can rest assured that we have someone who puts up a good OBP. His leadoff OBP was .372 last year; even while he only hit .268 out of the leadoff spot. He actually seemed to struggle the most while batting second, compiling only a .244 batting average (still had a .350 OBP). He was most comfortable while hitting seventh. In 61 at-bats in the seventh-hole KJ hit .377 with a .457 OBP. Now, this could have come during one of his "hot streaks." On the other hand the hot streak could have been a product of his comfort with that spot in the batting order.

I think if we hit him either lead-off or seventh we'll get good production from him. Here is my prediction for KJ in 2008:

.289/.391/.480 with 18 HR, 72 RBI, 88 BB, 112 SO.

I expect and hope that he will improve his all-around game no matter where he hits. He seems to be a very smart ball player who listens to his coaches and veteran players and that should help him weather his slumps. His easy stroke and smooth hitting mechanics should also help reduce his slump tendencies as he gets more experience.