One of the scenarios in the whole Mark Teixeira, do-we-trade-him-or-do-we-keep-him saga, has us keeping him (presumably because there is no where to trade him, or we have some delusion about staying in the race) and just accepting the two draft picks we would receive as compensation when he would presumably sign with another team (after we offer him arbitration). Many people from beat writers to bloggers have floated this scenario and suggested that the two draft picks would be a manageable return on our investment of prospects plus a year and a half of Tex.

Well don't start counting your chickens before they've hatched. Kevin Goldstein over at Baseball Prospectus recently posted a story about the excesses that some teams are spending on first round draft picks this year. The teams with the money -- New York and Boston -- are spending several millions of dollars to sign their first round picks and are also spending lavishly on later round picks with first round skill sets. Meanwhile, other more thrifty teams are having a hard time signing their first round picks for reasonable amounts of money (even when you consider reasonable in the baseball contract sense).

Consider that if we end up keeping Teixeira through the end of the season and getting two draft picks when he signs elsewhere, then we may have to pony up anywhere from $6 million to $14 million just to sign all of our picks before the second round. Add on to that the possibility of Will Ohman bringing at least one supplemental first round pick and that's four players who would be expecting first-round money.

On one hand it's a good problem to have since you are no doubt infusing your system with an amazing amount of talent at one time, on the other hand, you may have to pay through the nose for that talent.

In the past the Braves have been on both sides of the fence between paying first round money for first round talent and trying to get some players at a bargain. Certainly their history with draft-and-follow players means that they're willing to shell out good money to players picked lower in the draft, but their history with guys like second round pick Josh Fields last year and fifth round pick Jacob Thompson this year shows that they may not be willing to go as far as this new market is pushing some of these contracts. Also, don't forget that the Jason Heyward negotiations last year dragged on until three days before the deadline to sign draftees.

Maybe it's too early to worry about this problem, but it's something to consider when considering some of the packages being floated for Tex.

Firstly, get your mind out of the gutter. Secondly, think about the Braves and their never give in approach and their play for one year approach. The price for Matt Holliday of the Rockies is likely a pretty steep one. He’ll be around for next year (like Tex was last year) and he’s got good enough power and hitting numbers away from Coors for other teams not be scared off from dealing top prospects for him. The scenario I’m about to unravel is highly unlikely, but it occurred to me, I have a blog, so I put it out there for all to comment on.

First of all the assumption is that there truly is a team that has a need for Mark Teixeira, something the blogosphere’s trade rumor clearinghouse (MLBTR) doesn’t think there is. Take for instance the Angels, who would love more power, but don’t want to supplant Kotchman at first for the future, don’t need another outfielder, and aren’t usually a team that trade away a ton of prospects. In that instance this Teixeira-Holliday three-way might match up pretty good.

Here’s the magical mythical deal:
Angels – get Mark Teixeira; give up one A+ prospect and one B prospect
Braves – get Matt Holliday; give up Teixeira and one A- prospect
Rockies – get two A prospects and a B prospect; give up Matt Holliday

Crazy, wild, far-fetched, I know.  Sometimes trades are all about how teams match-up, not about what a team has to offer or what a team has to give up. The Angles usually do not like to give up the haul of prospects needed to get one of the two best hitters available, but with the Braves kicking in an extra prospect to the Rockies the deal might seem palatable for the other two teams involved. The Rockies would also have a better selection of prospects to choose from. Of course, would the trade be palatable for the Braves?

In this scenario we’re giving up Teixeira and the chance to get perhaps two prospects from the Angels or two draft picks should we not resign Teixeira. But we’re already revamping our team for next year with the hottest bat on the trade market. We are, of course, giving up a second top-prospect, but remember that’s what prospects are for, and traditionally that’s how the Braves have treated their prospects – as fodder for trades. This move actually allows us to keep more prospects than we would have normally had to give up for the likes of a Matt Holliday. We presumably would still get two draft picks for Holliday, when his agent, Scott Boras, takes him to free agency after 2009, so all we’ve really given up is one prospect and we’ve added a premier hitter for a run at the postseason next year.

Anyway, this is just a pure hypothetical, but in the era of creative trading and trying to find ways to match up Teixeira with a willing recipient, things like this could begin to circulate.

Per the Boston Globe:

Theo Epstein just responded to an e-mail I sent him in regard to the Mark Teixeira trade rumors that have been floating around the past two days. The ESPN report was that Sox and Braves were discussing Teixeira for Kevin Youkilis and Craig Hansen.

Asked if there was anything to it, Epstein responded, "No, not at all."

The rumor was originally reported by Peter Gammons, and when it comes to Red Sox rumors Gammons is usually on to something, so this denial by Epstein is curious. Of course, the response, "no, not at all," could mean that the inquiry the Braves made about Youk and Hansen went no where and that the Red Sox have not pursued it any further.

This just shows you that even the seemingly credible rumors may be nothing more than the misunderstandings of an overheard whisper. I'm sure there'll be plenty more of this kind of fodder in the coming days.

Solid starting pitching.
Timely hitting.
Quality bullpen work.
The long ball.

This was more like the Braves we were expecting to see to start the season. I was most impressed with starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens -- he really put on a show tonight. He lost it a little in the sixth, but his first five innings were brilliant. If he can stretch that solid work for another inning or two and repeat that for 60 to 70 percent of his starts then we will be in for a real treat watching him this year. It’s great seeing the kid get the Braves their first win this year.

(By the way, the newest fan club appeared tonight -- Jurrjens Surgeons.)

Seeing more homers from the team is also a solid sign. Teixeira’s homer was one of those mammoth shots we got used to seeing last year. He’s traditionally a slow starter, but maybe that will get him going. Escobar’s homer is one I think we’ll see more of from him this year. He looks like he’s bulked up and with such a solid fundamental swing his power will come without having to try and swing for the fences.

It was also good to see Martin Prado fill in so well for Scooter. I know there are some that doubt Prado, but I really believe he can be a solid major leaguer -- a guy who can serve as a quality backup and fill in adequately when a regular is injured. He had the wind knocked out of him in the eighth, but got up and finished out the game.

I was a little baffled that Bobby went to Bennett to get out of Jurrjens’ jam in the sixth. I would have thought he would have gone to Resop (who was warming up) or one of the other “one-inning” relievers. But Bennett got out of it with a little help from Chipper Jones, who avoided a broken bat while starting a double play.  Could this be the sign of a different role for Bennett, who we thought would be the long reliever out of the pen, not a situational righty who can get out of jams. With the double play in order, perhaps Bennett has sinking action on his pitches that will lead Bobby to use him as his double play ground ball pitcher.

Another interesting thing to note about this game (and Monday’s game for that matter) was how many relievers were used to bridge the gap between the starter and the ninth inning (of course, after the Braves scored seven in the eighth there was no need for a closer). After Acosta redeemed himself in the seventh inning, Cox used three pitchers to make it through the eighth. Perhaps it’s the luxury he has this year with two left-handers in the bullpen, or perhaps it’s the luxury he has early this season with eight relievers in the pen.

We get Mr. Glass on the mound tomorrow… sigh.