Braves' Heyward not returning to AFL
Per Mark Bowman's blog, here is the latest on the injury to Atlanta Braves top prospect Jason Heyward:
After meeting with Braves doctors in Atlanta on Tuesday, Jason Heyward learned that he won't be able to resume playing in this year's Arizona Fall League.
Heyward played just four games in the AFL before being shut down on Oct. 17 because of discomfort in the region where his hamstring meets his gluteal muscles.
According to an industry source, the Braves doctors have projected that Heyward should return to health after a few weeks of rest and rehab. With the AFL's regular season concluding on Nov. 17, there wasn't any reason for the 20-year-old outfielder to rush back to action.
A shame, but I think most of us figured the Braves would err on the side of caution and not let him return to play. Bowman mentions that he could return to a Caribbean winter league club at some point in late November or December to get turned up for a possible run at winning the right field job.
My thoughts are that the Braves will not chance it and instead give Heyward a full winter to recover. They may also look at his spring training the same way that they looked at Hanson's, as more of a taste of what is to come later in the season, and they may plan to start Heyward at triple-A (where's he's only gotten a handful of at-bats), using Matt Diaz in right until Heyward is ready. Really, it's going to be a wait and see approach. If Heyward comes out and hits .350 next spring, then it's hard not to put him on the opening day roster. Of course, if he comes out and hits .150, the decision seems easy enough to send him to triple-A for more time. Ugh, I'm just not patient enough for the wait and see approach.
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Braves hire Dave Wallace as Minor League pitching coordinator
From the Seattle Times we get this news of another hiring in the Atlanta Braves front office.
Dave Wallace was known as one of the better pitching coaches of his generation, helping to develop the arms of Orel Hersheiser, Pedro Martinez and John Wetteland, to name a few. The past two seasons, since leaving the Boston Red Sox in 2006 and spending a year with the Houston Astros, he'd been with the Mariners. His first job here was as a special assistant to GM Bill Bavasi, and then this past year as the team's minor league pitching co-ordinator. He worked closely with a number of young arms -- Mark Lowe, Brandon Morrow, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Phillippe Aumont, to name a few -- being groomed by the M's for better things.
But Wallace is moving on, having accepted a job with the Atlanta Braves.
Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik told me earlier tonight that he'd recevied a call from the Braves asking for permission to interview Wallace for a similar position. Wallace was told he could interview if he wanted and did, then informed the Mariners he was taking the job.
The Braves have spring training in Florida, where Wallace lives, and also have their minor league affiliates much closer to his home than did the Mariners.
He seems to be very well thought of around baseball, and he's more of a marquee name than some of the folks we've recently hired or promoted. I believe this is the position formerly held by Bruce Dal Canton, but I'm not sure who was in this position last season (my media guide is not with me). The position was formerly held by Kent Willis.
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Braves 2009 Season in Review: Nate McLouth
It's hard to describe the season of Atlanta Braves center fielder Nate McLouth. He wasn't bad, he wasn't really that good, he was just average. Of course, after the last few seasons of below average center fielders, it is nice to finally have one who is at least average. None of this is to say that McLouth doesn't have a lot of positives, and that those positives didn't show up in 2009, because they did.
In Nate McLouth, the Braves have a very versatile hitter and outfielder on their hands. He's a player who can hit for power and bat third or behind the cleanup hitter. He's a player who can use his speed on the base paths to help the Braves in many ways, but is he a lead-off hitter? It's easy to think that he can be a successful lead-off hitter with his speed, but for some reason he hasn't had success at the top of order when leading off an inning, but that's not to say he's a bad hitter when batting 1st in the order.
Here's the Rubix Cube; McLouth hit .204 last year and he hits .245 for his career when leading off an inning, but he hit .260 last year and he hits .260 for his career when batting 1st in the lineup. The poor batting average and on-base percentage when leading off innings tells me that he's not the best lead-off hitter, if a lead-off hitter is someone you want to get on base and score runs. He doesn't have enough power to be a three-hole hitter, so what batting order position McLouth seems best suited for is right between those two in the second spot in the order. That's where he can utilize his speed and power while not making either one of them a liability.
But he's better than just about any other Braves player at getting on base above his batting average, so he's likely still our best option to hit lead-off (he just needs to work on hitting when nobody's on base). Which means that he'll enter next season as the Braves lead-off hitter. I'd like to see him work on hitting for a higher average, which would help that on-base percentage more, but I'm not sure I want a higher average at the expense of his power.
At just 28-years old next season, McLouth should be entering his prime years. While the Bill James 2010 projection for McLouth (.263/.348/.449) doesn't see much deviation from his career norms (.260/.342/.454), he seems primed for a little more of a breakout from those career norms. We may have seen that this year if not for the injuries that slowed McLouth late in the season. I say, expect big things from Nate McLouth in 2010.
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This Week's Schedule at Talking Chop: October 26 - November 1
This week we'll wrap up all the position player reviews and top prospects, and then the first week in November we'll tackle starting pitchers. Looking beyond next week; the second week in November we'll talk about the top minor league starting pitchers for the Braves, then the third week of November we'll deal with relievers, and finally to close out all of our season reviewing and prospecting, during Thanksgiving week we'll present the Talking Chop top-25 Braves prospects, with an opportunity at the end for everyone to submit their own.
That's a long look ahead, but we've done a fantastic job of sticking to the schedule so far, and I wanted to give everyone an idea of what was coming up. But this week, here's what's on tap:
Monday: Season in Review: CF Nate McLouth
Tuesday: Season in Review: CF Jordan Schafer
Wednesday: Braves Top-5 Minor League Center Fielders
Thursday: Center Field Round-Table Post
Friday: Season in Review: OF Matt Diaz; Season in Review: OF Ryan Church
Saturday: Braves Top-5 Minor League Right Fielders
Sunday: Right Fielder Round-Table Post
As some point, we'll squeeze in the Left-Fielder Round Table post which got pushed due to other content yesterday.
Be sure to check back every day for new material.
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Braves' Jason Heyward to get hamstring checked by doctor in Atlanta on Tuesday
To get more clarification on the injury suffered a week ago Saturday in the Arizona Fall League by the Atlanta Braves' top prospect (and baseball's top prospect), Jason Heyward, I contacted the Braves Director of Player Development, Kurt Kemp. He informed me that doctors in Arizona diagnosed Heyward's injury as "hamstring/gluteal tendinitis." The Braves are flying him back to Atlanta to be checked by their doctors this Tuesday. They will make a decision about his continued participation in the AFL after they get the results from his doctor's visit.
Certainly this could be a big setback, and I don't know what to make of this change of diagnosis from a hamstring "strain" to hamstring "tendinitis." Somehow that makes Heyward sound more frail. That opinion aside, Heyward is a young kid who is still only 20-years old, so his body should bounce back quickly, and any team would be as cautious as the Braves are being with a top prospect, especially THE top prospect.
Let's hope the news on Tuesday is good and that Heyward can get back to Arizona as soon as possible.
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John Sickels' top-20 Braves prospects
Our first Atlanta Braves top prospect list is out from a major prospect guru. This first one from John Sickels, here are his top-20 Braves prospects:
- Jason Heyward
- Freddie Freeman
- Julio Teheran
- Randall Delgado
- Craig Kimbrel
- Mike Minor
- Christian Bethancourt
- J.J. Hoover
- Zeke Spruill
- David Hale
- Mycal Jones
- Brett DeVall
- Cory Gearrin
- Adam Milligan
- Jose Ortegano
- Robinson Lopez
- Luis Valdez
- Edgar Osuna
- Scott Diamond
- Dimaster Delgado
Visit his site for his commentary on each of these guys. It's a good list. A little high for Hale and Jones, I think. Good inclusion of Robinson Lopez, I think we'll be seeing a lot of him on lists this year. Notice the absence of Cody Johnson, who Sickels says he "doesn't believe in" because of the strikeouts -- a very valid fear.
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The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap
Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on October 25th:
In the Press...
- There were some suggestions by beat writers David O'Brien and Mark Bowman about the off-season direction the Braves will take.
- Talking Chop first reported that Jason Heyward was sidelined with a leg injury, which was later reported by the Braves.com site.
- The Braves "got the ball rolling" on contract extension talks with Tim Hudson.
- The Braves hired another former member of the Orioles front office.
- The AJC reported that Martin Prado is likely going to be the Braves 2010 opening day second baseman.
At Talking Chop...
- The Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Poll showed that Braves fans are already feeling better about the off-season.
- We reviewed the 2009 season of third baseman Chipper Jones.
- The 2009 seasons of Omar Infante, Kelly Johnson, and Garret Anderson were also reviewed.
- Matt reviewed the top-5 Braves third base prospects and the top-5 left field prospects.
- Matt Diaz chatted with fans on ESPN, we wrapped up the most interesting Qs & As.
- The bloggers of Talking Chop conducted a round table on the third basemen in the Braves organization.
- We continue to recap the Braves prospects' performances in the games of the baseball fall and winter leagues, here and here.
Notable FanPosts and FanShots...
- GoBravesNY told us about prospect Jeff Lyman's Arizona Fall League blog, and cbwilk told us about L.V. Ware's blog.
- justincredubil02 informed everyone how to get free Braves merchandise.
- Dale Murphy for HOF gave us his top-5 best and top-5 worst Braves trades.
- GoBravesNY asked everyone what their screen names meant, mine (gondeee) is a play on my last name, Gandy.
- PWHjort expanded upon a link from the USS Mariner about roster construction theory.
Upcoming Events...
- The first ever Brian McCann Celebrity Softball Game is set for November 13th... details here. We're making this a bit of a Talking Chop outing, so everyone get your tickets!
- The Gwinnett Braves have a whole slate of off-season events planned at their ballpark, the list is here.
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Braves Top-5 Minor League Left Fielders
As we have already seen, the depth at most of the infield positions is pretty weak right now (except for maybe 1B) and nearly devoid of potential impact players. The OF is a bit different with 3-4 potential impact players in LF alone and several more between the other OF positions. The LF list is comprised almost exclusively of high risk/high reward tools players and demonstrates the Braves draft philosophy pretty well over the past 2 decades. If just one of these guys hit their ceiling we could have a very good power bat for the future. The problem is, that is a big if in almost all of these cases.
1. Cody Johnson B/T: L/R Born: 8/28/1988 HT: 6'4" WT: 195
Cody Johnson is probably the most.....controversial? interesting? prospect that will be discussed on any of these lists. And for good reason too. He was a controversial pick for the Braves when they spent their 1st round choice on him in the 2006 Draft , but they knew then that he was going to take a while to develop and they were willing to give him time. Cody lives for the home run and may have more raw power than any player in the minors right now. The big issue is that is his only real skill at the moment. He is the consummate boom or bust player.
The player that Cody Johnson is compared to most often is Adam Dunn, but there are some flaws with this comparison. Both guys have extreme power, but Dunn has always had very good patience at the plate with a solid idea of what he is doing. He is the perfect example of a 3-True Outcome player (guys who can be expected to either homer, strike out or walk in any plate appearance) and is a good example of Cody's best case scenario. Cody, while still having that power, has yet to show the same level of polish as Dunn, though there are some good signs. This year at Myrtle Beach Cody posted the highest walk totals of his career thanks to a 13% walk rate for the season, and he actually saw it increase after Freeman and Heyward were promoted and 5% better than he was with Rome. His ISOP was a very good .275 in Myrtle Beach which came from 51 of his 102 hits going for extra bases (32 homers, 18 doubles and 1 triple). He ended the year with an .861 OPS though he slumped quite hard in the final month of the season with a .741 OPS (still not horrible because of his good walks totals).
With Cody Johnson's good points comes some pretty glaring bad points. The K-rate is the first stat that anyone points to, and it really can't be ignored. Cody struck out in roughly 35% of his ABs this season. To put that in perspective Mark Reynolds struck out in about 33% of his ABs in the majors this season but he never posted higher than 28% in a full season in the minors and Adam Dunn never posted higher than 24% in the minors and Ryan Howard did put up 34%, but that was at AA and he was 24 years old. Johnson's strikeouts are a problem and won't ever go away and I think they do point to a root problem which is: 70% of his hits go to RF. He is a dead pull hitter which probably creates some exploitable holes in his swing. Cody also is known to be a pretty bad fielder in LF and the stats back this up as he has a career .940 fielding %. Yes he makes an error on SIX PERCENT of the balls he makes plays on. In the OF. Horrible.
Long story short, Cody has one outstanding skill (power) that has improved as he has moved up the ladder and one solid skill (taking walks) that is certainly a work in progress but still an asset to his offensive game. Outside of those two you would be hard pressed to find . But in the end, with just those two skills he posted an excellent OPS while playing half his games in a pitchers park (.790 OPS at home vs 929 on the road) and had what I would consider a very productive season. Cody does have one other thing going for him: he is only going to be 21 next season and he will probably be in AA. I don't think he is going to set the world on fire in first taste of AA, but he could spend three years there and only be 24. Cody has already drawn praise from scouts for making more adjustments than most thought he was capable of. He has come a long way from the kid who posted a .541 OPS in the GCL. If he can continue to make progress being a more selective hitter, even if the strike outs stay exceptionally high, he will be a useful bat in some capacity. Expect to see him in Mississippi next season after finishing 2009 there.
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Braves' Jason Heyward injury update
Talking Chop was the first Braves site to report that baseball's top prospect Jason Heyward was being slowed by an injury in the Arizona Fall League; we reported this on Thursday. The official Braves site has now chimed in to clarify exactly what the injury to Heyward is -- "a posterior leg injury" -- but still no word about how long he will be sidelined. There is an interesting note in that story which I think is worth repeating (my emphasis):
Because Heyward has recorded just 173 at-bats above Class A, there has been reason to wonder whether the Braves would be willing to allow him to start the 2010 season in the Majors. But the Braves have continued to provide reason to believe that they are definitely open to this possibility.
While that is not a concrete statement from the Braves front office, it is a statement from a beat writer who is around the team and team officials every day. That collection of knowledge is usually accurate when considering what decisions the team will make. This is a good indication of who will be our starting right fielder next year -- Jason Heyeward. Let's hope that the injury doesn't slow him too much longer and possibly change the team's plans.
As a side note, here is what the 2010 Bill James Handbook predicts for Heyward at the major league level next season:
| G | AB | H | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 146 | 542 | 164 | 86 | 27 | 5 | 17 | 78 | 59 | 64 | 11 | .303 | .371 | .465 |
...I surely hope so...
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Atlanta Braves Winter League Recaps: 10/23
Looks like Freeman bounced back a little bit.
Mesa 10, Peoria 11
- B. Hicks 2-4 BB, SB(2)
- F. Freeman 2-5 2B, 2 RBI, K
- L. Hyde 0.2IP 1H 3R 2BB 1K
Brandon Hicks is hitting .318 in the desert so far with pretty good plate discipline so far and without striking out as much as he did in the regular season. Yes it is Arizona, but he probably could use some confidence building. I am glad to see Freeman hit with some authority as well, though I'm not sold that his wrist is back to 100% yet. And Lee Hyde finally got tagged up after he walked a couple of guys and then gave up a 3-run homer. Still no Heyward.
Navojoa 4, Mexicali 6 - 6th Inning
- M. Young 0-3 BB, K
- C. Rodriguez 1-3 RBI
Nothing much going on yet in this game. Rodriguez did go 4-4 last night with 2 2Bs and Brett Butts picked up his 3rd save for Navojoa. Young also went 0-2 with 2 BBs. Edgar Osuna also made a shot appearance but gave up 2 hits and a walk and didn't record an out before leaving the game.
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