FanPost

Sonny Gray's Contract and Possible Extension


Of course most of us on here have our own takes on how the Braves should value the available arms like Archer, Gray, Quintana, Verlander/Fulmer, and whoever else we can dream up as potential trade candidates for the impending deadline. Some of us are clamoring to "Stick with the Plan" and not to sacrifice our beloved prospects for guys that are somewhat unproven, have erratic outings, they make the W with their mechanics and will/will not need TJ surgery in the future, and other are ready to deal Ozzie, Maitan, Anderson, Allard, Soroka, and some even Andrew Jo...I mean Acuna...at the drop of a hat just to maybe, just maybe make a run at the playoffs this year. Whatever sentiments you have regarding what we should do, how we should do it, and who we should give up to do it likely won't be changed by this theoretical brainstorm...unless Coppy is busy reading our thoughts and theories. If that's the case, I'm still a little bitter not to have received an interview for the law clerk position with the Braves this summer. ANYWAYS....

I was trying to find what Sonny may get in his next 2 Arb years. Of course it's an inexact science and I by no means pretend to know exactly what they consider and with what exact weight the arbitrators consider it. Based upon cursory research and just tyring to get some form of ballpark idea as to what he may expect to receive in Arb I found an article on "The Unbalanced" that projected him to receive 5.2 mil next year and 8.4 the year after after comparing his numbers with those of Chris Tillman. (https://medium.com/the-unbalanced/unbalanced-trade-deadline-series-sonny-gray-1426404a96ed) These numbers may be close, or they may not be, but for the sake of argument, lets roll with them. That would be a total of 13.6 million over the next 2 years with massive uncertainty as to what he may get after that.

Hopefully by the end of 2019 Allard, Soroka, Godhara, etc. are in the show and have proven what they are/can be capable of. If not some of the younger guys should really be pounding on and literally beating down the door for the call. If we traded the A's for Julio + prospect (that's not the point of the article) I believe that if we are willing to make that investment in Gray, it would benefit us greatly to trade for him after we have discussed and agreed upon an extension.This may sound elementary to some, and others will disagree and argue that by that point we will be trotting out 5 Cy Young contenders all with ERA's below 1.5. Bear with me if you're in that group...

If we take a 4 year approach with Gray, he would be 31-32 when his contract expires. I know this will cause concern for some relating to the possibility of him agreeing to an extension but lets talk rough numbers. If we agreed to paying him 13 mil a year for the 18, 19, 20, and 21 season, this would be a 4 year/ 52 million dollar deal. For the current price of pitching 13 mil for a 1, 2, or good 3 doesn't seem absurd. For Gray to make this same 52 million after going through arbitration he would need to earn 19.2 million each season for both the 2020 & 2021 seasons. If we were willing to pay him 15 mil/year for this 4 year span he would need to earn roughly 23.2 million each of 2020 & 2021 to break even after going through his arb years. Yes, I'm also ignoring the Time Value of Money for this, which would further increase his desire to get more money sooner. It's of course possible that he would reject a 4/60 million deal with dreams of huge free agent money or that the Braves don't want to commit 15 mil a year to a guy that had a bad and injury riddled year last season, but would they be willing to commit 13/year to that same guy that when healthy has been really pretty solid?Maybe he wouldn't accept the extension without an option to get out, which if that's the case this would all be for naught.

I think if we deal Teheran and get gray an extension is the only way it makes sense. Gray, being a kid from Nashville, likely grew up a braves fan and would benefit him to be closer to home. Now maybe this doesn't show in what he'd be willing to take, and maybe he grew up as a Phillies fan, I don't know, but still more food for thought regarding what amount it would take for him to sign an extension to be a TOR (1-2 guy) guy while our younger guys grow up. This deal would also not be back loaded or enormous so if things went south with the org. or if all of our prospects panned out and we were trotting out 5 Cy Young guys, we could deal him for attractive pieces pretty easily assuming he stays healthy and effective. Just thinking out loud on a rainy work Monday and figured I'd go ahead and make my first post. Sorry for the run on sentences, grammatical errors, and spelling errors riddled throughout. I was writing a memo while thinking about money and trades.

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Battery Power.