When the Braves demoted Matt Wisler three weeks ago, it could be taken as a sign that they found his June and July struggles (ERA over 6.00, FIP around 5.00) unacceptable for a member of their rotation, even a developing one.
As Wisler returns to the major league mound, however, even those types of struggles would be a relative improvement over what’s happened to Atlanta’s rotation since then. Get this: in the month of August (i.e., basically since Wisler’s demotion), Atlanta starters have put up a 6.43 ERA and 5.38 FIP. (This is somehow not the worst in baseball, though it is below replacement level.) It’s been even uglier lately, as over the last two weeks, those figures are 8.07 and 5.73, respectively (worst ERA, second-worst FIP in baseball over that stretch).
So, this is really just a way of saying that even if Wisler is just as bad as he was earlier this summer, it just means he’ll fit right in with the kind of terrible, noncompetitive pitching the Braves have been deploying anyway.
Wisler will try to keep runs to a minimum and prevent the ball from going out of the park. Runs have certainly not been kept to a minimum in this series, as the Braves and D-backs have combined for 47 runs in three games. Wisler has allowed a bucketload of homers this year, and his 1.62 HR/9 IP is 11th-worst in baseball among pitchers with as many innings as him (or more). He also allowed a homer in three of his four starts at Gwinnett, so... hold on to your butts.
Wisler will be opposed by Robbie Ray in the finale. Ray’s 4.31 ERA looks generic, but he’s gotten fairly unlucky with a .351 BABIP-against. His 3.54 FIP, 3.29 xFIP, and 3.44 SIERA all suggest he’s really been pitching more like a 4-win starter than the average-ish 2-win starter his ERA points to. Ray has the third-highest K/9 and fifth-highest K% among all starters qualified for the batting title this year, and his K%-BB% is over 20%. Basically, he’s been a top-30 pitcher in baseball so far, if you take balls in play and sequencing out of the equation. So, if you like watching the Braves strike out, I guess this is your chance.
Ray has allowed just three runs (two earned) over his last three starts, and has put up a 22-to-3 K/BB ratio in them. In his last start, against the Padres, he struck out 13 in seven innings, allowing just a solo homer and a walk.
Game Info
Thursday, August 25, 9:40 ET
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
TV: Fox Sports Southeast
Radio: WYAY 106.7, Braves Radio Network, 680 AM / 93.7 FM