Now that's more like it. After a dreadful April and improved-but-still-way-too-poor May, the Braves approached something like reasonable expectations with their June performance. The month featured the team's longest winning streak to date (six games), a road sweep of a division rival, and a smattering of occasional wins against tough opponents. That's not to say that the Braves actually played particularly well or won half of their games or anything like that, but in a rebuilding season, we'll take the wins where we can get them, even if they're moral rather than the kind that show up in the standings.
For the month, the Braves went 12-16. That's a .429 winning percentage, which, if extended to the whole season, suggests 69 wins. That's an overall total much closer to where many thought the Braves would end up, as opposed to the 55-win pace the team is currently on. On the other hand, they've improved every month even as the already-weak roster has struggled with injury and ineffectiveness, so perhaps they'll continue to heat up with the weather and come in closer to the preseason predictions than current expectations. Who knows?
Series by Series
- Split two games of a four-game series with the Giants (also split the first two games of the series in May)
- Swept by the Dodgers in Los Angeles
- Lost two of three in San Diego
- Lost two of three in Kansas City
- Lost two of three to the Cubs
- Split a four-game series with the Reds
- Swept the Mets in New York
- Split a two-game set in Miami
- Swept by the Indians
- Won the first game of a four-game series against the Marlins
June Team Stats by the Numbers
- 12-16 record (27-52 overall)
- Current Pythagorean Expectation (overall) of 28-51, leading the Reds by a half-game.
- Third-worst in runs scored, but that's an improvement over April and May. (The Mets are last, heh.)
- Offensive production: all the way up to fourth-worst in the majors for the month. Not even close to last in slugging, which is nice and unexpected. Still a well-below average offensive team (91 wRC+), and the month didn't help the Braves fully dig out of their overall-season 78 wRC+ and last place offense, but improvement's improvement.
- Defensive production: small sample size and data update lag both apply, but the Braves had a surprisingly good defensive month, finishing in the top 10 across all teams in June. Nearly all of that credit goes to Ender Inciarte, who's been as good as advertised on defense.
- Total position player value: not below replacement level! 21st overall in the majors isn't necessarily great, but it's a huge gain from where the team was in April and May. Awesome. Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte, and Jace Peterson were the big difference makers here: Freeman with the bat, Inciarte with the glove, and Peterson on both sides of the ball.
- Rotation: middle of the pack, so a step backwards from May, but still decent. 15th by ERA (11th in NL), 18th in FIP and xFIP (12th in NL),
- Bullpen: again, middling but not terrible. 13th by ERA, 15th by FIP, 16th by xFIP. 15th by leverage-weighted value.
- Total pitching value: 21st in MLB, 12th in NL. A steep dropoff from the really great pitching in May, but given the injuries and general state of flux, understandable..
The story in April was that everything was awful. In May, the position players were still awful, but the pitching was great. In June, the whole "hitting and fielding" aspect finally improved to "reasonable" while the pitching regressed. Still, not trotting out sub-replacement level production goes a long way, and it makes sense that the Braves had a decent month once the bats and gloves showed signs of emerging from their slumber.
Biggest June Impact - Position Players
Freddie Freeman's had a pretty strange year, but his production in June was undeniable. In addition to taking home NL Player of the Week honors at one point during the month, he was berserk for much of the month. In sum, he put up a 178 wRC+ via a .346/.426/.654 slash line. The sky-high .463 BABIP and 20% HR/FB had a lot to do with it, but he also hit over a third (36%) of his batted balls on a line and managed a crazy-talk hard contact percentage of 51%. The hard% is well above anyone else for the month (Jake Lamb is second at 48.3%) and the LD% has him in a dead heat for first in the month with Joey Votto.
One thing that's interesting is that despite the crazy-good offensive performance from Freeman, he didn't really rack up the counting stats. He hit six homers in the month, but four other players hit 11 (wow). Despite reaching base over 40 percent of the time, he only scored 13 runs (and six of those were from driving himself in). He only drove in 14 runners (again, six were himself), compared to Wil Myers driving in 33 and, for example, old pal Melvin Upton Jr. driving in 16. Which is mostly just to illustrate that counting stats are silly, and that much of the lineup was no help (and no competition) for Freddie.
One really key thing about Freeman's June is just how many games he basically dominated himself, in one way or another (more on this later in video form). In the first game of the month, he hit a walkoff homer to end it. A couple of weeks later, he put up a 4-for-7 effort with a game-tying homer. The week after, he had a perfect night (3-for-3, including a homer) against the Mets. He kept it going all month, even closing on a high note by lacing a triple last night to help the Braves claw back into the game.
Biggest June Impact - Starting Pitchers
Biggest June Impact - Relief Pitchers
Five Six A Bunch of Moments I liked from June 2016
A lot of fun moments and games in June 2016 for the Braves. Here are my favorites.
Jace Peterson's Late-Inning Dominance
Jace Peterson has been playing like a man possessed since his recall from Gwinnett. On June 21, he took matters into his own hands in a tough contest against the Marlins. First, the Braves were down 2-0 in the top of the 8th, so Peterson, with nonchalance but magnitude, crushed a homer off of the right field scoreboard at Marlins Park. The Braves, who were really just "Jace Peterson and some pitchers" on this night, didn't do much else until the 10th, when Peterson came up again with two outs and a runner in scoring position and served a liner into left field for the go-ahead, winning run. From the way he took control of the game, you'd never know he was demoted to the minors for an unseemly batting line and was actually continuing said struggles at AAA.
And yes, I had five things I liked better than this, but Peterson really deserves some recognition for his awesomeness in June.
Freddie Says Hello to June, Goodbye to a Baseball
A win is always, always better when you beat the Giants. So, I have Freddie Freeman to thank for this gift.
This was the very first pitch of the 11th off of a guy named Derek Law (I can't confirm or deny whether he's really just Derek Lowe with plastic surgery). The Giants annoyingly have 50 wins and lead their division by six games, but at least they don't have 51, thanks to that majestic Freeman home run.
Peterson, Braves do Extra-Inning Zombie Impersonation
Sometimes, a baseball team just won't die, and it's really fun. After an offensive slugfest of a game that saw an 8-8 tie to start the seventh inning, the Braves and Reds settled into a scoreless detente all the way until the 13th frame. At that point, Alexi Ogando tried to nail down his own team's coffin by allowing two runs to the Reds, with the first coming on a bases-loaded walk (!) to Jose Peraza (!!).
The Braves pulled off their best zombie impersonation despite the setback, however, notching five straight hits to tie the game off of Alfredo Simon, and then winning it an intentional walk and another single later. The biggest blow here was Peterson's double to put the tying run at third with none out, but it was really a team effort across Adonis Garcia, Nick Markakis, Peterson, Tyler Flowers, and Chase d'Arnaud. Also, I'm pretty sure like any good zombie event, everyone was asleep when this happened, because this game was really long.
Also Freddie Freeman hit for the cycle in this game, and no I totally didn't forget that until just now (nervously tugs at collar).
Bud Norris is Apparently Spectacular Now
April: Bud Norris is kicked out of a terrible rotation for being extra-terrible. May: Bud Norris toils in nondescript long relief, yet is not released. June: Bud Norris is really great now? Yes, this is a thing that happened. (July: Bud Norris is a Dodger.)
Seven innings, eight strikeouts, no walks (and this is Norris we're talking about). Way to go, Bud.
Seriously, this start was so good it would've been the best start by a Braves starter in June (and the season, perhaps), if not for...
Julio Teheran Bedevils the Mets
No need for more words, just watch the dominance. I still can't believe the Braves lost one of these games. For my money, the second, non-one-hitter start is actually potentially more impressive, since he made back-to-back starts against the same team and carved them up again. Also, there was a bit more pressure in the second outing as it was a scoreless affair the entire time, as opposed to the slight leverage he had in the first game to keep throwing strikes given the lead the offense gave him.
Adonis Garcia Occasionally Does This and it's Awesome Every Time
Yep. It is.
Addison Reed missed with an 0-2 fastball and the Mets paid the price with a lead turning into a deficit, as Adonis Garcia continues to showcase more power than anyone thought he had in occasionally appropriate situations. Good times.
Irrationally Irritating Moment of June 2016
There were a lot of these, so it was hard to pick just one. Like Kelly Johnson homering against his former team with his new team, off of a pitcher who was acquired from said team. Or a handful of Arodys Vizcaino blow-ups. Did I mention that Alexi Ogando walked Jose Peraza in extra innings with the bases loaded to allow a go-ahead run? I did, just wanted to check whether you were still with me.
Still, this one bugs me a lot. The Braves rarely have fun playing in San Diego, but this game was even worse. Arodys Vizcaino came on for a save in a one-run game, and proceed to first:
Well, that happens sometimes. Not ideal, but at least give the bats a chance to get back out there and win a game. But, not so much. The ugly sequence following the Norris homer went: single, stolen base, wild pitch advance, walk, advance to second on defensive indifference, and then a lineout (momentary reprieve) before Wil Myers sadly ended the game on the first pitch from Vizcaino he saw:
Please pitch better in July, Arodys. Please?