Hello friends! I have been, for the most part, relatively quiet this offseason. Working on secret projects, a full-time job, and a family that I frankly like better than all of you has kept me less productive than usual here, but things are clearing up again and I wanted to chat about a few things regarding this offseason.
The Braves’ hot stove has been an interesting one where if you are a starting pitcher of note on the trade market, you have been connected to the Braves. Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Justin Verlander....basically anyone that could be traded has been mentioned by someone as a possibility of going to Atlanta.
Unfortunately, with the CBA negotiations dragging on as they have, the big moves haven’t been made by any clubs really (the Mariners-Dbacks trade being a notable exception here), but we can assume that once the new collective bargaining agreement does happen (or at the very least the current one is extended to allow for more time for talks) that the offseason will get busy again.
However, the relatively quiet thus far as led to some interesting discussions happening regarding the farm system and the market. Don’t get me wrong, I am all about some RA Dickey, Bartolo, and Sean Rodriguez...but those signings are not going to be the talk of next season barring something crazy happening. What has happened, though, is that there seems to be a lot of bizarre and frankly misguided thoughts floating around.
First, the cost of a frontline pitcher like Chris Sale or Chris Archer in trade. I did a radio segment a couple weeks back where it was similar to Deal or No Deal where I threw out trade packages and they would say deal or no deal. I pretty much knew what I was getting in to so I put together 3-4 prospect packages for the big names on the trade market with players like Kolby Allard, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Sean Newcomb, Matt Wisler, etc. being among the included names. If I recall correctly, the only player that I offered a 4 prospect package was Sale.
The hosts, who are very smart guys, said no deal to all of them...and the thing is I knew that would happen going in despite the fact that I am certain the other teams involved would reject the deals as well.
Here is the problem: every team’s fan base is going to like their prospect more than others. This is particularly compounded by Braves’ fans being well-informed and enthusiastic about their farm system because of sites such as this one. We all hope that the prospects we know and love will turn into the next second baseman for the Braves or become rotation mainstays for the next 5+ seasons, but there is a reason why prospects are valued less than major-league players (often MUCH less). Prospects will break your hearts a lot of the time...and that is okay.
Let’s look at a trade for a frontline pitcher that happened recently...and no, I am not talking about the Shelby Miller trade because that example has grown tired. Cole Hamels was sent to the Rangers in 2015. He was signed through 2018 with a vesting option in 2019 if he hits certain innings amounts, etc. He makes $22.5 million a year every year exception for option year (which is $20 million).
The Rangers got Hamels as well as Jake Diekman and $9.5 million in exchange for Matt Harrison, Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams, Jake Thompson, Alec Asher, and Jerad Eickhoff. That is roughly half of the Rangers’ top 6 or so prospects who all got at least some love by a top 100 prospect list. Thompson and Eickhoff are in the Phillies rotation now and Willams and Alfaro are both top 60 prospects right now and will likely move up with Alfaro being the best catching prospect in the game right now. Asher debuted with the Phillies in 2016 and put up a 2.28 ERA in 5 games (27.2 innings).
Matt Harrison’s inclusion makes the moves even more comparable as moving him simply made the financial cost to Texas easier to swallow. Sale, Archer, Gray....these are all really good pitchers who are under control for multiple years at very reasonable, if not borderline cheap. They will be expensive and I don’t think a lot of Braves fans right now fully understand that.
To some extent, it’s true that the deal the Braves got for Shelby Miller inflated the market with other teams wanting to get their own windfalls. However, in this market where good pitching is scarce and the guys being talked about being among the better young pitchers in the game, giving up a big chunk of your farm system isn’t reaching for the stars...it’s the price of doing business. If you think the Braves’ top 8 prospects or so could be off-limits and the Braves could still swing a trade for any of those guys...you have lost your minds.
There are a few trains of thought here and there are merits to a lot of them...but ultimately it’s all in how you want to place your bets. If you think that in the years the Braves would have these pitchers that the Braves will be competitive even without the prospects in the haul required to get them, then a trade makes some sense. If you don’t or you think that the prospects that would have to be involved will have more value than a Sale/Archer/Gray, then a deal probably doesn’t do much for you. Some of you just want a marquee name and couldn’t care less about prospects. I can respect that. Some of you just top 100 prospect lists to be 40 Braves org guys and trades hurt that goal....I applaud you as well.
However, lets not pretend that there isn’t any opportunity cost with these potential moves. Yes, a trade for a frontline, controlled starter would be expensive, painful, and would be extraordinarily hard for any system to simply absorb. Yes, some team will make a move for one of those guys regardless of that cost. The Braves system is really, really good....but it’s not a major league roster and it is highly unlikely that the White Sox or Athletics or Rays think as highly of those prospects in the teens on the Braves prospect list as you do.
That’s the problem with the trade market...you have to give up value to get it and if recent trades are any indication, many out there in Braves’ country do not fully grasp what it will take to make a deal happen. At the very least, they will not be happy with the price.