FanPost

Five Bold Predictions: Mid-Season Edition

Based on a comment by "fast at last", who was inspired by Eno Sarris of Fangraphs, I asked Talking Chop members to make "Five Bold Predictions" for the upcoming season back in March. Since this is the half-way point of the season, I thought it might be fun to revisit some of those predictions. I also thought I'd collect some new bold predictions for the second half. I'll then review those predictions, as well as the one's made in March, at season's end. I realize that many of these predictions were made in jest, and even those that weren't were intended to be a bit outrageous, so please take any element of mocking in my review in the spirit of good fun with which it is meant. Any edits of the comments were made to keep the length of the post manageable. Those who wish can post their Five Bold Predictions for the second half in the comments. Anything goes so long as it is related to the Braves or Talking Chop.

On to the Predictions ...

Ivan:

1. Eury Perez is second on the team in terms of outfield innings, and has the highest WAR among Braves outfielders.

Well none of us saw Hurricane Cameron coming, and Eury has fallen into the role of fourth (or fifth) OFer, primarily spelling Gomes and KJ in left. He is currently last in fWAR among Braves outfielders at -.7. Implicit in this prediction is the prediction that EYJ would not stick in CF, which did happen.

2. The 2B situation devolves into a giant mess because Jace Peterson doesn't get enough playing time or leash to dig out of an early-season BABIP-distressed batting line ... Gosselin eventually gets most of the playing time ...

Welp. Jace has staked his claim to 2B, and Gosselin is now with the D-Backs. In the first month of the season, Jace rides a .355 BABIP to a .286 average and a .360 OBP.

3. C-Beth's hitting is better than expected (but still not great), but his defense is worse than expected. AJ Pierzynski is surprisingly solid as a backup ...

So this one is about 85% omniscient. C-Beth's defense was worse than expected, so much worse that the Braves sent him down to Gwinnett to work on it. And superdouche was anything but douchey, proving to be one of the bright spots in the Braves first half. One gold star for Ivan on this one!

4. Jason Heyward absolutely obliterates the team when the Braves face the Cardinals. .500 OBP, 3+ homers, multiple outfield robberies in the six or seven games that the teams face each other.

The Braves have yet to play the Cards.

5. Aside from Kimbrel and Grilli, the best member of the bullpen is not currently in the running for a bullpen spot, and is likely not on the 40-man or in the organization ...

If Arodys has a big second half, it's possible that this one might be true. After Grilli, JJ has probably been the best pitcher in a lousy Braves bullpen. I don't think I'm giving Ivan too much credit by assuming that he based this prediction on the expectation that the Braves' bullpen would be pretty bad after Cheesus, which was correct.

Xiansheng:

5. Intentional Walks of Freddie Freeman > Wins by Mike Minor + Wins by Wandy Rodriguez + Wins by Eric Stultz + Wins by Mike Foltynewicz + Wins by Many Banuelos + Wins by Cody Martin.

Folty (3), Martin (2), ManBan (1), Stults (1), and Wandy (0, in a Braves uniform) have combined for 7 wins, and Kakes leads the team with 5 IBBs (what?). Freeman has 3.

4. Strikeouts by Craig Kimbrel > Games Played by Chris Johnson

CJ only plays in 44 games in the first half due in part to injury, and Kimbrel has 47 Ks. You are correct, sir.

3. wRC+ by Jace Peterson > wRC+ by Nick Markakis

Kakes's wRC+ is 108. Peterson's is 93. But points for predicting that Jace would be better than expected offensively.

2. Home runs by Jonny Gomes + home runs by Andrelton Simmons > Walks issued by Julio Teheran.

Gomes (4) and Simba (3) have 7 HRs combined. Teheran leads the team with 39 free passes. Derp. The only way this one winds up being correct is if Teheran dies, and Gomes and Simba "get pharmaceutical" in the second half.

1. Slugging % by Christian Bethancourt > Winning % by Atlanta Braves.

The Braves' .472 winning percentage in the first half more than doubles C-Beth's .287 SLG (dear God that is one ugly SLG).

Fast at Last:

1. Eury Perez will become the Braves starting CFer sometime in July.

Maybin is the starting CFer. He has always been the CFer. He always will be the CFer. Long live Oceania!

2. Andrelton Simmons will finish the season top 5 in the MVP voting.

He'll have to put up more than an 80 wRC+.

3. Nick Markakis will be traded at the deadline.

TBD.

4. The mid-season starting infield for the Braves will be Peterson, Simmons, Peraza, Freeman.

Well, three out of four ain't bad.

5. The Braves will have the lowest ERA in the NL.

The Cards lead the NL with a 2.67 ERA (Seriously, that just isn't fair. They must be cheating). The Braves sit in ninth with an ERA of 3.95 (almost 1.3 runs worse than the Cards, who most definitely are not cheaters, aside from that corporate espionage thing).

zgs1288:

1. Alex Wood finishes 3rd in Cy Young Voting, limited by the fact that he only wins 9 games.

Despite a rocky April, Woody rebounds to post a 3.34 ERA and 3.27 FIP, but he's overshadowed by Cy Shelby, who could well be a top-5 finisher in the Cy Young voting, if the Braves could score him a run or two here and there.

2. Nick Markakis posts negative WAR. Why? Because I'm a spiteful and petty man, that's why.

In spite of your spite and a woeful -.2 UZR/150, Kakes singles and walks his way to 1.1 fWAR, defense and homers be damned!

3. Exactly one hitter finishes with double digit homers: Frederick Charles Freeman.

It looks like KJ and Maybin will reach double digit HRs, but despite his time on the DL, Freddie still leads the team with 12 HRs. But this one is correct, so far, anyway.

4. The end-of-season roster contains exactly zero players named Johnson.

TBD.

5. The pitching staff hits more homers than the second basemen.

Pitchers - 0; 2B - 3.

Glassman:

1-"the trade" is debated ad nauseum in every game thread.

I think most of us have had our Heyward-trade hurt assuaged by Shelby's first half performance and the progress made by Jenkins in the minors. The only thing we're debating now is how badly we fleeced the Cards.

2-There will be 500 bunt attempts.

I can't actually find a record of the Braves total bunt attempts, so I can't prove this is wrong. Therefore, it must be right. Right? The Braves do have 19 sacrifice hits that are not sac flies, per ESPN, which my Holmesian powers of deduction tell me means the Braves have 19 sac bunts. Yay bunting!

3-Toscano will join the club in late September.

After doing his best Carmen Sandiego impression, Toscano finally arrived stateside in April. I have no idea what he's been doing since then. So, TBD, I guess, but looking a lot less likely than it did in March.

4-Every Ivan post will be greened.

I think I saw one that wasn't, but my eyes were probably just playing tricks on me.

5-Justin buys the team and trades Teheran, Freeman and Kimbrel to the Cards for Heyward after he extends.

No comment, mostly bc I don't know where to begin.

BravesRays:

1. Ozhaino Albies vaults to a top 10 prospect ranking.

The little SS that could is well on his way, appearing on a few mid-season top 50 lists.

2. The Braves win 80 games.

Hey, it could still happen. Look at the Twins.

3. Melvin gets cut.

We traded Melvin! We traded Melvin! Oh, sweet contract relief! How did we get the Pads to agree to this again? Did we have photos of AJ Preller with a hooker or something?

4. Kimbrel gets dealt at the deadline.

I meant that other deadline. The one that comes right before the Braves play their first game of the season.

5. Jonny Gomes punches someone in the face.

Nope. And apparently the team enforcer needs protection from ... Chris Johnson. What? I guess if there were a lefty assailant, CJ might be able to ward off an attack. Otherwise, Johnny is probably better off getting protection from Kevin Costner.

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Battery Power.