The Atlanta Braves are not aiming for contention is 2015. The team's down-the-line focus has been painfully evident for months, and it was further illustrated over the weekend as GM John Hart was quoted as saying that 2015 was "sort of a regroup year" for the franchise.
In that vein, Grantland's Jonah Keri put together a preseason stock report in ranking MLB's 30 teams, and unsurprisingly, the Braves ranked very low on the list. How low? Well, Keri placed Atlanta ahead of only the Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks as the 28th-ranked team in baseball.
Keri did, however, begin his rationale with a positive statement about the team and, namely, the pitching staff:
The rotation will feature five talented starters, all of them 27 or younger … and that’s about it as far as any reasons for optimism in Atlanta go.
Things quickly took a negative turn (and rightfully so), as Keri sized up Atlanta's offense as the worst in Major League Baseball:
Other than first baseman Freddie Freeman, the lineup lacks any above-average hitters, so the pitching staff probably won’t propel the Braves’ overall 2015 performance anywhere beyond "below-average." Want to bet on the worst offense in baseball? Give me the Braves; you can have the field.
Later, Keri grouped the Braves with the Phillies as both "potentially terrible" and in allowing the Miami Marlins to "feast on the brittle bones" of both clubs. In short, this is a very smart baseball writer who objectively evaluates the Atlanta Braves as one of the worst teams in baseball.
The most bombastic claim comes in presenting the offense as the worst in the league, but it clearly isn't a far-fetched notion. The Braves averaged just 3.54 runs per game in 2014 (29th in MLB), and that came with the benefit of a relatively full season of production from the likes of Justin Upton, Evan Gattis and Jason Heyward.
It is certainly fair to project an uptick from Andrelton Simmons and, potentially, Chris Johnson (we can dream) and/or the CF position (Melvin Upton or otherwise), but "replacing" the power bats is likely a fantasy. Beyond that, the starting pitching is certainly respectable, but it would be foolish to forget that the 2014 rotation featured a surprisingly effective campaign from fifth-starter Aaron Harang, whereas the current group has relative question marks in both Mike Minor and Shelby Miller with a gaping hole in the fifth slot.
As Jonah Keri would undoubtedly admit, there is always a chance that the offense for the Atlanta Braves could outperform expectations, but he isn't wrong to think things could go sideways in a hurry.